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Asynchronous current account trends between North and South of the Euro Area were accompanied by significant appreciations of real exchange rate originating in the strong shifts in consumer prices and unit labor costs in the periphery economies relative to the core countries of the Euro Area. The issue is whether the real exchange rate is a significant driver of persisting current account imbalances in the Euro Area considering that, according to some authors, differences in domestic demand are more important than is often realized. In the paper we examine relative importance of real exchange rate and demand shocks according to the current account adjustments in the Euro Area member countries. Our results indicate that while the prices and costs related determinants of external competitiveness affected current account adjustments primarily during the pre-crisis period, demand drivers shaped current account balances mainly during the crisis period.

Deficits in fiscal and current account balances in a large number of countries reveal interesting implications of the causal relationship between internal and external imbalances. Empirical evidence about the occurrence of so-called twin deficits or twin surpluses provides crucial information about the validity of an intertemporal approach. However, most recent dynamic cyclical changes during the crisis period revealed many questions about the direct interconnection between macroeconomic performance and twin imbalances. In the paper we observe substantial features of twin imbalances in European transition economies. Event study (identification of large fiscal and current account changes and their parallel occurrence) and vector auto-regression methods will be employed to examine key aspects of twin imbalances. Our results suggest that current account deteriorations were predominately associated with negative public investment and savings balances (fiscal deficits), while current account improvements were predominately associated with positive private investment and savings balances, confirming empirical evidence about twin deficits in European transition economies.

Trade war among the nations dates back mainly to the nineteenth century. Some of the trade wars may be cited as (i) The First and Second Opium War Empire between 1839 and 1842; (ii) The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, 1930 signed by US President Herbert Hoover; (iii) Chicken wars in the early 1960s; (iv) The US–Japan automobile trade war in the 1980s; (v) 1985 Pasta War between America under the Regan Administration of United States and Europe; (vi) The Banana wars. However, trade becomes more intense in the present century with the increase of the economic trade instruments. Under the Obama Administration, currency war and tariff war both became strong between the United States and China with intense effect over the globe. After the Obama regime, came Donald John Trump with a number of controversial (aggressive) trade protectionism plans saying thereby “China’s accession to the World Trade Organization has enabled the greatest jobs theft in history” and “Trillions of our dollars and millions of our jobs flowed overseas as a result.” Even during the COVID-19 period in the 2020s, threats and counter-threats have been on the ascend. It is in this backdrop the present chapter mainly traces the history of trade wars in the twenty-first century, touching upon the nineteenth and twentieth century trade battles.

Introduction – Emerging markets are under the influence of many external factors in global market conditions. International interest rates and price fluctuations in major stock market indices are also among these factors. The FED policies shape the international capital movements in particular, which significantly affects the emerging markets. For this reason, emerging stock markets may show different reactions especially in times of crisis.

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the BIST30 index acted in accordance with the overreaction hypothesis (ORH) against the return changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index in the process of the 2008 global financial crisis.

Methodology – The data set of the study was analysed by dividing it into two periods. The first period is the monetary expansion period between 17 August 2007, when the Federal Reserve (FED) reduced the interest rate for the first time, until 22 May 2013 when the FED announced that it would reduce the bond purchases. The second period is the monetary contraction period including the dates between 23 May 2013 and 1 June 2017. An error correction model (ECM) was established in both periods for the indices, determined as cointegrated. The validity of the ORH was tested by Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) Analysis.

Findings – According to the ECM, the authors identified that the effect of short-term changes in the DJIA return in the monetary expansion period on BIST30 index return was higher than that in the monetary contraction period. However, according to the findings obtained from the CAR analysis results, the BIST30 index did not generally act in accordance with the ORH against the DJIA. Findings can be appreciated as a decision-making tool especially for investment specialists and investors interested in securities investments.

This chapter argues that monetary integration must precede, rather than follow, monetary unification, in order to avoid the occurrence of structural and systemic crises. It briefly overviews the relevant literature on european monetary union (EMU) with regard to the criteria to set up an optimum currency area (OCA) according to the mainstream view. It then points out that adopting the euro as single currency for a number of heterogeneous countries led inevitably to a number of major negative effects, so much so because of the counterproductive financial constraints induced by the Euro-area fiscal and monetary policies framework. Particularly, the lack of fiscal transfers between these countries and the dogmatic attitude of the European Central Bank (ECB) as regards its policy strategy and goal increase, rather than reducing, the unemployment rate, and the degree of financial instability across the euro area. In fact, a way out of the euro area exists without renouncing to the (long-run) benefits of monetary integration. It implies that countries whose population suffers most of “fiscal consolidation” introduce their national currencies again, limiting the use of the euro to their central banks only, in order for them to settle all international trade and financial-market transactions carried out by residents in these countries. This monetary–structural reform will be instrumental in increasing financial stability and employment levels across Europe, thereby inducing positive effects also for trade and public finance.

One of the highly debatable issues in the arena of international economics in recent years is whether a country should go for full capital account convertibility. In terms of the timing and process of capital account liberalization, India and China have been remarkably similar. Both started with a more or less closed capital account in the 1970s and the 1980s, in the context of a heavily state-influenced, planned economy. And in both countries, the first wave of liberalization came in the early 1990s and thus, the journey began. The objective of this chapter is to provide a critical analysis of both India and China's approach to the capital account liberalization program in the backdrop of the recent financial crises and to give an account of the theoretical issues that have arisen in international discussions on CAC and India's standpoint on this issue in particular. Second, how far is the capital account liberalization justified in the context of the recent episodes of financial crises that India and China have witnessed? Using a macroempiric model, this chapter tries to answer whether every member country in the IMF should hurriedly go for CAC or not. In addition, empirically through FMOLS, the authors pool in the “Rupee Convertibility” and “Renminbi Internationalization” along with exchange rate variation and its implications for India's and China's BoP situation (in terms of the export–import position and FDI flows) based on data from 1992 to 2017. ^{1 , 2}

The objective of this chapter is to examine the recent experiences of capital flows and the associated fiscal imbalances since the inception of the Eurozone. We show that the standard explanation for understanding these fiscal imbalances and capital flows is viable, but is not complete given the unique circumstances surrounding these fiscal imbalances within the Eurozone. That is, the creation of the Eurozone provided some fiscal and monetary stability up until the shock of the 2008 Financial Crisis. After the 2008 Financial Crisis, the interaction between the current account and fiscal imbalances started to spread throughout the Eurozone members and many of these Eurozone members began to engage in policies in an attempt to restore stability and to stem capital outflows by implementing fiscal reforms. In fact, some of the Eurozone members attempted to restore their fiscal viability in response to the 2008 Financial Crisis, but not with much success. Thus, the Eurozone members, collectively, need to reexamine best practices to implement fiscal policies that are resistant to intense financial shocks. Empirically, we examined the following two hypotheses in this chapter via the Wald test statistic. The first hypothesis examined the effect of the own country fiscal imbalances within own country is uniform across all the Eurozone members. Then, the second hypothesis examined the fiscal imbalances of one Eurozone member do not have on other Eurozone members. The Wald test statistic rejected both hypotheses.

This chapter investigates the impact of the euro crisis on Asia’s short-term economic outlook. This chapter tries to answer this question by examining both the trade and financial channels of crisis transmission. More specifically, it looks at the effect of euro crisis on Asian exports and growth, contagion from EU financial markets to Asian financial markets, and influence of EU bank lending on credit growth in Asia. The chapter also touches upon Asia’s policy space to assess how well the region is positioned to weather another major external shock. This chapter finds that the impact of euro crisis on developing Asia points to a sizable but manageable short-term impact. Furthermore, our analysis points to a significant effect on the region’s financial systems, especially its banking sector. This chapter informs policymakers of the impact of the euro crisis and advice to continue to keep a close eye on eurozone developments and their ramifications for their economies.

Of late, the ongoing trade war between the two most powerful economies of the world – United States and China – has placed both the countries on a horrid front, breaking the world’s most important bilateral relationship of the twenty-first century. Their failure to reach a concrete agreement on mutual benefit on matters related to growing hefty amount of China’s current account surplus of balance of payments (BoP) and endangering United States to create jobs on its side, China’s use of illegal and unfair methods to acquire rights on intellectual property and US technology at an effectively discounted price; and also the concern that China by hook or by crook seeks to weaken the US economy has made matters worse. It is in this context the chapter analyzes the trade tensions between them and the context under which it came to the fore and with what outcomes. The analysis recommends interventions of the global leaders to mitigate the issues for the betterment of the world economy.

The purpose of this study is to examine two issues, namely the degree of current account deficit (CAD) sustainability and the degree of capital mobility.

The sample for this study comprises 24 Latin American and Caribbean countries, including three regional agreements: Andean Community, MERCOSUR (Mercado Común del Sur), and SICA (Central American Integration System). This study employs the dynamic common correlated effects mean group (DCCEMG) estimator in a panel data set to investigate the long-run relationship between savings and investment along with short-run dynamics.

The findings indicate that CAD is weakly sustainable in the Latin American and Caribbean region, MERCOSUR, and SICA, while CAD is strongly unsustainable in the Andean Community. The sub-period analysis reveals that CAD has been adversely affected by the 2008 crisis. However, in the post-crisis period, CAD has been slowly decreasing in the Latin American and Caribbean region and Andean Community, whereas CAD has continued increasing in MERCOSUR and SICA. Further, the estimates of error-correction terms and short-run coefficients indicate that the Andean Community and MERCOSUR observe a higher degree of long-run and short-run capital mobility than SICA.

The results carry fundamental implications for policy-making processes aimed at maintaining sustainable CADs.

This study gives an alternative interpretation of the “Feldstein-Horioka” coefficient in terms of CAD sustainability and analyses the saving–investment relationship in light of Chudik and Pesaran (2015).