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Trade war among the nations dates back mainly to the nineteenth century. Some of the trade wars may be cited as (i) The First and Second Opium War Empire between 1839 and 1842; (ii) The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, 1930 signed by US President Herbert Hoover; (iii) Chicken wars in the early 1960s; (iv) The US–Japan automobile trade war in the 1980s; (v) 1985 Pasta War between America under the Regan Administration of United States and Europe; (vi) The Banana wars. However, trade becomes more intense in the present century with the increase of the economic trade instruments. Under the Obama Administration, currency war and tariff war both became strong between the United States and China with intense effect over the globe. After the Obama regime, came Donald John Trump with a number of controversial (aggressive) trade protectionism plans saying thereby “China’s accession to the World Trade Organization has enabled the greatest jobs theft in history” and “Trillions of our dollars and millions of our jobs flowed overseas as a result.” Even during the COVID-19 period in the 2020s, threats and counter-threats have been on the ascend. It is in this backdrop the present chapter mainly traces the history of trade wars in the twenty-first century, touching upon the nineteenth and twentieth century trade battles.

The fight between two nations on each other’s exportable on the basis of tariff is known as tariff war. Although an economic policy, very ­often ­motivated by nationalism and politics, a nation imposes tariff on the ­exports of another nation which, in retaliation, again imposes tariff on the exports of its trading partner. The prime cause of such war is certainly to enhance employment opportunities in the home nation. But politics and nationalism provoke the opposite nation to follow the same policy. Effects of such tariff war, whether beneficial or harmful, are yet to be seen. In this context, we have adopted a general equilibrium model to illustrate the probable effect of the above-stated trade war in a structure consisting both H–O nugget and export sector dualism. The effect of imposition of tariff on multinational corporation (MNC) that has its own origin nation and production activities in other nation as well where it faces the war of tariff is considered. But it gets relief in the form of tax reduction in its origin nation. Under such a scenario, the study has shown the effect of tariff in the presence of full employment in the economy as well as in the presence of unemployment. It is seen that the MNC will continue its production procedure in both nations and enjoy profit, under some conditions. Further, in the presence of unemployment it is seen that if rate of tax on the MNC rises, unemployment may fall and welfare can increase under certain conditions.

The chapter attempts to develop a micro-theoretic model to explain the genesis of trade war in light of the behavioral interdependence of two countries connected through international trade and, thereof, it analyses its welfare implication with respect to the countries at feud. In this regard, it is important to mention that the evolution of trade war herein has been articulated in terms of the retaliation of one country as reaction to the one time-tariff imposition by the other. The fundamental takeaways are twofold. First, how evolution of tariff war can be articulated in light two-stage game governments are coming to decide on tariff policy a priori, followed by second-stage featuring firms being decisive on the production level and then the games repeats where governments again come up to introspects if the a priori tariff rates are compatible with welfare optimization to be followed up by firms. Second, the nature of the ultimate fallout of the tariff retaliation will depend crucially on how welfare function of each country is paced with the country’s tariff policy.

Economic integration is an agreement among countries in a geographical region or unification of economic policies between different states aiming to reduce and ultimately remove tariff and non-tariff barriers on trade. The fruit of globalization is the tremendous rise of economic integration as globalization loosens barriers among the nations through reduction in cross-border duties and eases trade policies. Trumponomics is defined as the economic policies of US President Donald Trump that prefers high import tariff to bring “America First.” There is a debate among the researchers about the choice between free trade and protection or imposition of tariff. Some of them prefer free trade because during the start of the great depression, the world economy experienced a huge shift toward protectionism. Choice between no-tariff and tariff represents a prisoner’s dilemma situation whereby each player’s best response is to employ tariffs. This results in a sub-optimal outcome for all where the total volume of world trade falls, which is a Nash solution. The present chapter deals with theoretical discussions on trade war and throws light on the developing country’s choice between non-protectionism supported by globalization and Trump’s protectionism.

This study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA.

A conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war.

The hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors’ services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements.

The study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies.

Of late, the issue which has attracted the highest attention in the global scenario is the US–China trade relation, in particular the tariff war. The biggest nations in the world are in war with each other in matters related to trade since 2018. In the first quarter, the United States imposed a tariff which affected many countries like Canada, the EU, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Turkey, and, in developing Asia, India and the People’s Republic of China. This has resulted in a significant dampening of global output growth and growth in emerging nations of Asia. The present chapter seeks to investigate into the historical evidences of trade wars between the United States and China, major reasons responsible for this conflict and tries to figure out the impact of this conflict on fundamental macro variables using secondary time-series data primarily on selected Asian economies including India. The author uses the multiple regression technique to find to what extent changes in the independent variables are responsible in explaining the changes in the dependent variable for both China and the United States. The empirical results clearly show that in the case of China and the United States, an increase in weighted tariff rates (WTR) will lead to a significant decrease in the trade GDP ratio (TGR), whereas in the case of both these countries, Purchasing Power Parity GNI (PPPGNI) is positively and significantly associated in determining TGR. In the case of India, a decrease in WTR is expected to lead to a rise in TGR and it is significant. In case of Vietnam, PPPGNI is significant, but not WTR. In the case of Singapore, neither of the two independent variables is significant.

The chapter examines the current trade war between the United States and China and its impact on the two countries’ military industrial complex in relation to economic growth and development. The trade war has both positive and negative impacts on the country’s economic growth and development. Both countries depend heavily on each other for trade and account for an incredibly significant portion of the global trade. The trade war also impacts on the military industrial complex with respect to the defense budgetary allocation and trade in arms. One of the rationales for the trade war by the Trump Administration is to boost up the domestic economy, which would benefit the military industrial complex. Likewise, the retaliatory tariffs by China are designed to protect the domestic economy and showcase its ability to withstand and challenge the United States. The military industrial complex is important to both the countries. The chapter applied a quantitative design with canonical correlation method to multiple regression, where there are multiple intercorrelated outcome variables relative to military industrial complex and the processes of economic growth and development. It shows that trade wars in the form of increased imposed tariffs on each other by the United States and China has had no significant adverse effect on the Military Industrial Complexes of the two biggest economies of the world.