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Article
Publication date: 27 March 2019

Harendra Kumar Behera and Inder Sekhar Yadav

The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for India.

Design/methodology/approach

To begin with the trends, composition and dynamics of CAD for India are analysed. Next, the influence of capital flows on current account is investigated using Granger non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) between current account balance (CAB) to GDP ratio and financial account balance to GDP ratio. Also, the sustainability of India’s current account is examined using different econometrics techniques. In particular, Husted’s (1992), Johansen’s cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) is applied along with conducting unit root and structural break tests wherever applicable. Further, long-run and short-run determinants of the CAB are estimated using Johansen’s VECM.

Findings

The study found that the widening of CAD is due to fall in household financial savings and corporate investments. Also, it was found that a large part of India’s CAD has been financed by FDI and portfolio investments which are partly replaced by short-term volatile flows. The unit root and cointegration tests indicate a sustainable current account for India. Further, econometric analysis reveals that India’s current account is driven by fiscal deficit, terms of trade growth, inflation, real deposit rate, trade openness, relative income growth and the age dependency factor.

Practical implications

Since India’s CAD has widened and is expected to widen primarily due to rise in gold and oil imports, policy makers should focus on achieving phenomenal export growth so that a sustainable current account is maintained. Also, with rising working-age and skilled population, India should focus more on high-value product exports rather than low-value manufactured items. Further, on the structural side it is important to correct fiscal deficit as it is one of the important factors contributing to large CAD.

Originality/value

The paper is an important empirical contribution towards explaining India’s CAD over time using latest and comprehensive data and econometric models.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

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Book part
Publication date: 23 October 2017

Rajmund Mirdala and Júlia Ďurčová

Asynchronous current account trends between North and South of the Euro Area were accompanied by significant appreciations of real exchange rate originating in the strong…

Abstract

Asynchronous current account trends between North and South of the Euro Area were accompanied by significant appreciations of real exchange rate originating in the strong shifts in consumer prices and unit labor costs in the periphery economies relative to the core countries of the Euro Area. The issue is whether the real exchange rate is a significant driver of persisting current account imbalances in the Euro Area considering that, according to some authors, differences in domestic demand are more important than is often realized. In the paper we examine relative importance of real exchange rate and demand shocks according to the current account adjustments in the Euro Area member countries. Our results indicate that while the prices and costs related determinants of external competitiveness affected current account adjustments primarily during the pre-crisis period, demand drivers shaped current account balances mainly during the crisis period.

Details

Economic Imbalances and Institutional Changes to the Euro and the European Union
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-510-8

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Article
Publication date: 21 May 2010

Niloufer Sohrabji

Following the 1991 crisis, India undertook reforms that liberalized trade and investment. India faced current account deficits for most of the period following these…

Abstract

Following the 1991 crisis, India undertook reforms that liberalized trade and investment. India faced current account deficits for most of the period following these reforms. This paper analyzes sustainability of India's current account position over the last decade using the intertemporal solvency model of Hakkio and Rush and Husted. In this theoretical framework, the intertemporal solvency constraint is satisfied if there is cointegration between inflows and outflows of the current account. This paper finds cointegration between the series when allowing for a structural break using the Gregory and Hansen procedure. Dynamic generalized least squares (GLS) estimation shows a strong relation between India's current account inflows and outflows. On the basis of the empirical results, this paper concludes that there has been an improvement in trade patterns and despite experiencing deficits, India's current account position is sustainable.

Details

Journal of Asia Business Studies, vol. 4 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1558-7894

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Article
Publication date: 12 April 2011

Magda Kandil

The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to study the determinants of financial flows, portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, and the impact of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to study the determinants of financial flows, portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, and the impact of these determinants on economic variables in samples of developing and advanced countries. The analysis then turns to an evaluation of the effects of external flows on economic activity.

Design/methodology/approach

To that end, the paper follows a two‐step procedure. First, the paper estimates a series of reduced‐form equations in differenced form, using annual data, for the current and the financial account balances as well as important underlying components, using a number of macroeconomic indicators reflecting the state of the business cycle as explanatory variables. These include not only a measure of economic growth, but also other factors that vary cyclically, such as the exchange rate and energy prices. In addition, the paper examines the effect of positive and negative shocks to these and other cyclical variables on components of the balance of payments. Second, the results are summarized in three directions. First, cross‐country correlations evaluate time‐series co‐movements between the current account balance and external flows with respect to major determinants of cyclicality across the samples of advanced and developing countries. Second, time‐series regressions evaluate the direct effects of financial flows on the current account balance within the samples of developing and advanced countries. Third, cross‐country regressions evaluate the impact of movements in trend and variability of financial flows on major economic indicators across the samples of developing and advanced countries.

Findings

The results are summarized in three directions. Across the samples of advanced and developing countries, the pervasive evidence highlights the negative correlation between the responses of the current account balance and the financial balance with respect to the various sources of cyclicality in the time‐series model. Second, using time‐series regressions the bulk of the evidence indicates that an increase in financial flows helps finance a widening current account deficit. Third, cross‐country regressions evaluate the impact of movements in trend and variability of financial flows on major economic indicators across the samples of developing and advanced countries. While FDI flows appear significant in differentiating growth performance within and across developing countries, their effects appear to be limited on growth performance in advanced countries. Portfolio flows are more relevant, compared to FDI flows, to financing a wider current account deficit, both in developing and advanced countries.

Originality/value

Overall, the evidence presented in this paper establishes the importance of financial flows to external balances and macroeconomic performance within and across the samples of developing and advanced countries. In light of this evidence, macroeconomic policies should target a combination of external balances that can be easily financed by external inflows and align domestic policies to achieve the desired cyclicality in external balances, available financing, and macroeconomic performance.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

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Article
Publication date: 14 September 2012

Magda Kandil

The purpose of this paper is to study the role of public and private imbalances in the cyclicality of the current account balance in a sample of advanced and developing…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the role of public and private imbalances in the cyclicality of the current account balance in a sample of advanced and developing countries. Within developing countries, the evidence does not establish the dependency of private investment on private savings and private consumption is the main driver of the saving/investment balance. In contrast, private savings seem to be better mobilized to finance private investment and the latter is the main driver of the saving/investment balance in advanced countries. Deterioration in the current account balance in response to higher private consumption could be detrimental to growth and external stability. In contrast, an investment strategy that promotes growth is likely to attract financial flows and reduce the risk of a widening current account deficit on external stability.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper studies determinants of the current account deficit. It studies current account fluctuations in the short‐run and explains these fluctuations by analyzing movements in the underlying components: public and private savings as well as investments and resulting imbalances. Of particular interest is the interaction between the government budget deficit, the private saving/investment balance, and the current account balance.

Findings

Using time‐series estimates, co‐movements indicate that fluctuations in the current account balance in many advanced countries appear to be driven by private investment that determines cyclicality in imports. In contrast, cyclicality in the current account appears to be driven by private consumption that determines fluctuations in imports in many developing countries. In general, fluctuations in the government budget deficit are mostly driven by government investment and fluctuations in the private saving/investment balance are mostly driven by fluctuations in private investment. Further, fluctuations in the current account balance appear to be mostly driven by fluctuations in the private saving/investment balance.

Originality/value

The paper explains the dynamics of the current account in relation to developments in public and private imbalances and its underlying components. It shows the effects of changes in the budget deficit and its underlying components on cyclicality in the current account. Similarly, cyclicality in the current account balance with cyclical movements in private savings and investment is studied, along with which factors affect the components of the current account balance. In particular, the paper establishes which components of the current account significantly respond to the cyclical changes in macroeconomic variables.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

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Article
Publication date: 8 June 2018

Javed Ahmad Bhat and Naresh Kumar Sharma

This paper aims to scrutinize the asymmetric interactions between current account deficit and gross fiscal deficit in case of a growing and dynamically integrated economy…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to scrutinize the asymmetric interactions between current account deficit and gross fiscal deficit in case of a growing and dynamically integrated economy, namely, India featured with high inequality and liquidity constraints. Two additional variables, trade-openness and output growth, are also incorporated into the analysis to assess their likely impact on the current account balance.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses a recently developed non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model given by Shin et al. (2014) in its empirical examination. In addition, non-linear cumulative dynamic multipliers are used to understand the route between disequilibrium position of short-run and subsequent long-run equilibrium of the system.

Findings

The study confirms the long-run co-movements of current account deficit and gross fiscal deficit and therefore refutes the Ricardian Equivalence proposition and validates the twin-deficit hypothesis. But instead of a linear relationship of the kind examined in the previous studies, the two variables share asymmetric linkages – both in the short run and in the long run. The asymmetry indicates that positive changes are more influential than their negative counterparts in the short run, whereas in the long run, only the positive changes are found to alter the external balance statistically. The asymmetric impact of fiscal deficits on the current account balance of a country may arise due to its asymmetric impact on aggregate demand through consumption inflexibility (ratchet effect) and the existence of liquidity constraints. The other control variables used in the study are also found to have cointegration with the current account deficit, but the relationship is symmetrical in the long run, even though it is asymmetrical in the short run. The study finally uses the asymmetric cumulative dynamic multipliers to examine the route of asymmetries and adjustments over the course of time. The dynamic multipliers also confirm the results documented in the earlier part and therefore demonstrate their robustness.

Practical implications

The asymmetric results obtained in the study provide strong grounds to devise the policies adaptive to changing arenas in domestic and external sectors. Output growth, export promotion and import substitution, increasing integration and fiscal austerity are seen as helpful in achieving a desired (and growth conducive) external balance together with macroeconomic stability. The need for a prudent fiscal policy and avoidance of profligacy is indicated based on the asymmetric results to ward off any unfavorable impact of fiscal deficits on external account. To conduct a sound fiscal policy, the government needs to cut down unproductive consumption expenditure, raise tax revenues and should pay attention to distribution and trickle-down effects to avoid the adversity of high inequality and liquidity constraints in the economy. Moreover, to ameliorate the current account balance, policies aimed at increasing the real competitiveness through control of domestic price fluctuations and improvement in the quality of tradable goods and services (such as productive investments and technological advancements) should be adopted.

Originality/value

Work reported in the present paper is motivated by the fact that there is no study conducted so far in the Indian context which has analyzed the two deficits in a nonlinear framework. The authors have used a well-articulated nonlinear asymmetric technique to examine the relationship between two deficits when asymmetry is incorporated. This paper will, therefore, enrich the existing literature along the lines of asymmetric linkages. Moreover, the traverse of asymmetries and adjustments over the course of time highlights the inherent dynamism of the relationship.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

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Article
Publication date: 2 August 2019

Moumita Basu and Ranjanendra Narayan Nag

This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance…

Abstract

Purpose

This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance and unemployment in response to some policy-induced shocks for a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses a two-sector framework: one sector is traded and another is the non-traded sector that is subject to an effective demand constraint. The current account imbalance arises due to the discrepancy between production of traded goods, household consumption of traded goods and government purchases of importables. The authors keep the asset structure simple by considering only domestic currency and foreign bonds that are imperfect substitutes. The paper considers a standard methodology of dynamic adjustment process involving change in foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate under perfect foresight. The saddle path properties of the equilibrium are also examined.

Findings

The results of comparative static exercises depend on a set of structural features of a developing country, which include asset substitutability, wage price rigidity and sectoral asymmetries. The paper shows that expansionary monetary policy, balanced budget fiscal expansion and financial liberalization have an ambiguous effect on the current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, non-traded sector and the level of employment.

Originality/value

The existence of Keynesian unemployment with fixed prices is the key ingredient of this paper. The paper introduces the problem of effective demand to analyze the dynamics of current account balance and exchange rate, which, in turn, determine the sectoral composition of output and level of employment.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 46 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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Article
Publication date: 27 July 2012

Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah and Hamizun Bin Ismail

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether current account imbalances – surpluses or deficits – are “excessive” and hence constitute a valid concern. The second…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether current account imbalances – surpluses or deficits – are “excessive” and hence constitute a valid concern. The second objective is to assess the degree of capital mobility by comparing the variance of the current account derived from the intertemporal model with that of the actual current account.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper addresses the issues by constructing the intertemporal model using annual data between 1960 and 2006. The authors applied the F‐test, the Bartlett test and the Siegel‐Tukey test to formally validate for equality of the variances of the optimal and actual consumption smoothing current accounts.

Findings

Based on vector autoregressive model, it was found that the present value of future net output closely reflects the evolution of the current account series with a small (insignificant) deviation between the actual and the estimated consumption‐smoothing current account. The results show that the hypothesis of full‐consumption smoothing could not be rejected by the data for the full sample period, implying that the degree of capital mobility was quite high, even during the post‐1997 period. The variance ratio of the actual current account to the optimal current account is not statistically greater than one. Therefore, it is concluded that there is no evidence to suggest inappropriate use of capital flows over the entire sample period under investigation.

Originality/value

The authors relied on a more general framework, as suggested by Bergin and Sheffrin, which allows real interest rate to affect current account in order to provide a new perspective on Thailand's current account balance.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 39 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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Article
Publication date: 5 October 2010

Ioannis E. Nikolaou and Konstantinos I. Evangelinos

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the drawbacks of current social and environmental accounting methods and to present a classification for developing a new accounting model.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the drawbacks of current social and environmental accounting methods and to present a classification for developing a new accounting model.

Design/methodology/approach

The various social and environmental accounting methods are classified and discussed on the basis of various criteria such as the types of accounting principles and the content and information units utilized.

Findings

Current social and environmental accounting methods utilize different criteria, measurement units and principles, a fact that makes the information provided ambiguous and problematic for a reliable business‐society dialogue under a common and understandable context. A new classification is presented based on specific criteria in the prospect of developing a new accounting model.

Research limitations/implications

The proposed new classification aiming to develop a new accounting model is a theoretical proposition which should be validated and tested in practice with a series of case studies before it can be recommended as an alternative to current accounting methods.

Originality/value

The paper attempts to highlight the drawbacks of the current social and environmental accounting methods and proposes a new classification for the development of a new accounting model.

Details

Social Responsibility Journal, vol. 6 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1747-1117

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Article
Publication date: 1 January 1976

P.R.A. Kirkman

In July 1973 the UK government announced that a special committee of enquiry was to be set up “to consider whether, and if so how, company accounts should allow for

Abstract

In July 1973 the UK government announced that a special committee of enquiry was to be set up “to consider whether, and if so how, company accounts should allow for changes in costs and prices, having regard to established accounting conventions based on historic costs, the proposal for current general purchasing power accounting put forward by the Accounting Standards Steering Committee, and other possible accounting methods of allowing for price changes, and to make recommendations”. The twelve‐person committee under Francis Sandilands produced its 364‐page report (Cmnd.6225) in September 1975. The committee recommended that a system of current cost accounting should be adopted for listed companies, large unlisted companies, and nationalised industries for accounting periods beginning after 24 December 1977. It also recommended that a special steering group should be set up to oversee the introduction of current cost accounting. In November 1975 the government gave its qualified approval to the Sandilands recommendations, and agreed to set up a special steering group under the chairmanship of Mr. Douglas Morpeth. It is hoped that this group will produce a statement on this subject in the latter part of 1976.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

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