Search results

1 – 10 of over 184000
Book part
Publication date: 20 March 2023

Yuri Biondi and Lasse Oulasvirta

Recognition, measurement and disclosure of public sector assets constitute relevant matters for national and international public sector accounting standard-setting. This chapter…

Abstract

Recognition, measurement and disclosure of public sector assets constitute relevant matters for national and international public sector accounting standard-setting. This chapter develops a theoretical analysis drawing upon a dualistic approach contrasting current value and historical cost accounting models. Accordingly, the latter should be adapted and then preferred to cope with public sector specificities, with a view to providing information for and enforcing accountability to citizens and their political representatives. Drawing upon this theoretical setting, our analysis develops a consistent design for the overarching conceptual framework for assets in general, providing illustrative examples for specific categories such as financial, heritage, natural and military assets.

Details

Measurement in Public Sector Financial Reporting: Theoretical Basis and Empirical Evidence
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-162-5

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 June 2023

Shahid Bashir and Tabina Ayoub

This paper is an attempt to re-examine the validity of the Twin Deficit Hypothesis in the Indian economy, which is characterised by mounting inequality and liquidity constraints…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper is an attempt to re-examine the validity of the Twin Deficit Hypothesis in the Indian economy, which is characterised by mounting inequality and liquidity constraints. The authors augment the econometric analysis with two important mediating variables, exchange rate and trade openness, to analyse their impact on current account deficit.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors have used a ground-breaking asymmetric cointegration technique proposed by Shin et al. (2014) to investigate the short-run and long-run asymmetric nexus between gross fiscal deficit and current account deficit. In addition, the study has used asymmetric dynamic multipliers to see the dynamics of nonlinear adjustment from disequilibrium in the short run to equilibrium in the long run. The study has also used generalised impulse response functions to check the robustness of our cointegration results.

Findings

Using annual time series data from 1970 to 2018, the empirical exercise validates the presence of asymmetries in the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Indian economy. This study's robust findings demonstrate that the two deficits are asymmetrically related in the long run. The authors also found that exchange rate asymmetrically affects current account deficit thus validating the asymmetric J-curve phenomenon. From the causality analysis, the authors infer that there is a weak unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to current account deficit.

Research limitations/implications

Fiscal deficit may cause current account deficit via changes in other macroeconomic variables that were not taken care of in this study. Therefore, the estimation techniques used in the present study might suffer from the issue of omitted-variable bias. Further research should include other macroeconomic variables where the twin deficit nexus is also influenced by other relevant variables. This will help in disentangling the indirect transmissions by which fiscal deficit translates into current account deficit.

Practical implications

The results from our econometric exercise strongly suggest that the twin deficits are asymmetrically related. From a policy perspective, the asymmetric twin deficit nexus offers strong policy implications for the development of policies that are flexible enough to respond to shifts in internal and external sector dynamics. While framing the mechanism of fiscal prudence, policymakers in emerging countries like India must take into account the regime-changing behaviour of twin deficits.

Originality/value

The present paper is a significant contribution to the existing body of literature by being the first study in India which has analysed the Twin Deficits phenomenon in a nonlinear framework with the incorporation of asymmetric exchange rate dynamics in the model.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 27 March 2019

Harendra Kumar Behera and Inder Sekhar Yadav

The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for…

20245

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for India.

Design/methodology/approach

To begin with the trends, composition and dynamics of CAD for India are analysed. Next, the influence of capital flows on current account is investigated using Granger non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) between current account balance (CAB) to GDP ratio and financial account balance to GDP ratio. Also, the sustainability of India’s current account is examined using different econometrics techniques. In particular, Husted’s (1992), Johansen’s cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) is applied along with conducting unit root and structural break tests wherever applicable. Further, long-run and short-run determinants of the CAB are estimated using Johansen’s VECM.

Findings

The study found that the widening of CAD is due to fall in household financial savings and corporate investments. Also, it was found that a large part of India’s CAD has been financed by FDI and portfolio investments which are partly replaced by short-term volatile flows. The unit root and cointegration tests indicate a sustainable current account for India. Further, econometric analysis reveals that India’s current account is driven by fiscal deficit, terms of trade growth, inflation, real deposit rate, trade openness, relative income growth and the age dependency factor.

Practical implications

Since India’s CAD has widened and is expected to widen primarily due to rise in gold and oil imports, policy makers should focus on achieving phenomenal export growth so that a sustainable current account is maintained. Also, with rising working-age and skilled population, India should focus more on high-value product exports rather than low-value manufactured items. Further, on the structural side it is important to correct fiscal deficit as it is one of the important factors contributing to large CAD.

Originality/value

The paper is an important empirical contribution towards explaining India’s CAD over time using latest and comprehensive data and econometric models.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 7 July 2021

Alfonso Camba-Crespo, José García-Solanes and Fernando Torrejón-Flores

This study aims to identify structural breaks in the current account and the periods between these breaks, which the authors name stability spells, and study their characteristics…

1055

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to identify structural breaks in the current account and the periods between these breaks, which the authors name stability spells, and study their characteristics and determinants.

Design/methodology/approach

Using data from the IMF and the World Bank, this study applies the Lee and Strazicich test to endogenously identify breaks and the Heckman selection model to simultaneously study the determinants of structural breaks and current-account changes after breaks.

Findings

This study identifies 212 significant structural breaks and 341 stability spells. These spells become shorter and more volatile the further they are from equilibrium, and half of them last 10 years or less. The results show that economic growth and foreign-exchange piling are particularly useful to prevent breaks, while lower per capita income increases exposure to break risks.

Originality/value

This study introduces the concept of current-account stability spells to refer to the periods between structural breaks. These spells are then studied to determine their main characteristics. The authors also apply a global perspective in their analysis, using a wide sample of 181 economies between 1980 and 2018 and considering positive and negative breaks in both level and trend.

Book part
Publication date: 23 October 2017

Rajmund Mirdala and Júlia Ďurčová

Asynchronous current account trends between North and South of the Euro Area were accompanied by significant appreciations of real exchange rate originating in the strong shifts…

Abstract

Asynchronous current account trends between North and South of the Euro Area were accompanied by significant appreciations of real exchange rate originating in the strong shifts in consumer prices and unit labor costs in the periphery economies relative to the core countries of the Euro Area. The issue is whether the real exchange rate is a significant driver of persisting current account imbalances in the Euro Area considering that, according to some authors, differences in domestic demand are more important than is often realized. In the paper we examine relative importance of real exchange rate and demand shocks according to the current account adjustments in the Euro Area member countries. Our results indicate that while the prices and costs related determinants of external competitiveness affected current account adjustments primarily during the pre-crisis period, demand drivers shaped current account balances mainly during the crisis period.

Details

Economic Imbalances and Institutional Changes to the Euro and the European Union
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-510-8

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 May 2010

Niloufer Sohrabji

Following the 1991 crisis, India undertook reforms that liberalized trade and investment. India faced current account deficits for most of the period following these reforms. This…

Abstract

Following the 1991 crisis, India undertook reforms that liberalized trade and investment. India faced current account deficits for most of the period following these reforms. This paper analyzes sustainability of India's current account position over the last decade using the intertemporal solvency model of Hakkio and Rush and Husted. In this theoretical framework, the intertemporal solvency constraint is satisfied if there is cointegration between inflows and outflows of the current account. This paper finds cointegration between the series when allowing for a structural break using the Gregory and Hansen procedure. Dynamic generalized least squares (GLS) estimation shows a strong relation between India's current account inflows and outflows. On the basis of the empirical results, this paper concludes that there has been an improvement in trade patterns and despite experiencing deficits, India's current account position is sustainable.

Details

Journal of Asia Business Studies, vol. 4 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1558-7894

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2011

Magda Kandil

The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to study the determinants of financial flows, portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, and the impact of these…

2789

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to study the determinants of financial flows, portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, and the impact of these determinants on economic variables in samples of developing and advanced countries. The analysis then turns to an evaluation of the effects of external flows on economic activity.

Design/methodology/approach

To that end, the paper follows a two‐step procedure. First, the paper estimates a series of reduced‐form equations in differenced form, using annual data, for the current and the financial account balances as well as important underlying components, using a number of macroeconomic indicators reflecting the state of the business cycle as explanatory variables. These include not only a measure of economic growth, but also other factors that vary cyclically, such as the exchange rate and energy prices. In addition, the paper examines the effect of positive and negative shocks to these and other cyclical variables on components of the balance of payments. Second, the results are summarized in three directions. First, cross‐country correlations evaluate time‐series co‐movements between the current account balance and external flows with respect to major determinants of cyclicality across the samples of advanced and developing countries. Second, time‐series regressions evaluate the direct effects of financial flows on the current account balance within the samples of developing and advanced countries. Third, cross‐country regressions evaluate the impact of movements in trend and variability of financial flows on major economic indicators across the samples of developing and advanced countries.

Findings

The results are summarized in three directions. Across the samples of advanced and developing countries, the pervasive evidence highlights the negative correlation between the responses of the current account balance and the financial balance with respect to the various sources of cyclicality in the time‐series model. Second, using time‐series regressions the bulk of the evidence indicates that an increase in financial flows helps finance a widening current account deficit. Third, cross‐country regressions evaluate the impact of movements in trend and variability of financial flows on major economic indicators across the samples of developing and advanced countries. While FDI flows appear significant in differentiating growth performance within and across developing countries, their effects appear to be limited on growth performance in advanced countries. Portfolio flows are more relevant, compared to FDI flows, to financing a wider current account deficit, both in developing and advanced countries.

Originality/value

Overall, the evidence presented in this paper establishes the importance of financial flows to external balances and macroeconomic performance within and across the samples of developing and advanced countries. In light of this evidence, macroeconomic policies should target a combination of external balances that can be easily financed by external inflows and align domestic policies to achieve the desired cyclicality in external balances, available financing, and macroeconomic performance.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2012

Magda Kandil

The purpose of this paper is to study the role of public and private imbalances in the cyclicality of the current account balance in a sample of advanced and developing countries…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the role of public and private imbalances in the cyclicality of the current account balance in a sample of advanced and developing countries. Within developing countries, the evidence does not establish the dependency of private investment on private savings and private consumption is the main driver of the saving/investment balance. In contrast, private savings seem to be better mobilized to finance private investment and the latter is the main driver of the saving/investment balance in advanced countries. Deterioration in the current account balance in response to higher private consumption could be detrimental to growth and external stability. In contrast, an investment strategy that promotes growth is likely to attract financial flows and reduce the risk of a widening current account deficit on external stability.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper studies determinants of the current account deficit. It studies current account fluctuations in the short‐run and explains these fluctuations by analyzing movements in the underlying components: public and private savings as well as investments and resulting imbalances. Of particular interest is the interaction between the government budget deficit, the private saving/investment balance, and the current account balance.

Findings

Using time‐series estimates, co‐movements indicate that fluctuations in the current account balance in many advanced countries appear to be driven by private investment that determines cyclicality in imports. In contrast, cyclicality in the current account appears to be driven by private consumption that determines fluctuations in imports in many developing countries. In general, fluctuations in the government budget deficit are mostly driven by government investment and fluctuations in the private saving/investment balance are mostly driven by fluctuations in private investment. Further, fluctuations in the current account balance appear to be mostly driven by fluctuations in the private saving/investment balance.

Originality/value

The paper explains the dynamics of the current account in relation to developments in public and private imbalances and its underlying components. It shows the effects of changes in the budget deficit and its underlying components on cyclicality in the current account. Similarly, cyclicality in the current account balance with cyclical movements in private savings and investment is studied, along with which factors affect the components of the current account balance. In particular, the paper establishes which components of the current account significantly respond to the cyclical changes in macroeconomic variables.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 June 2018

Javed Ahmad Bhat and Naresh Kumar Sharma

This paper aims to scrutinize the asymmetric interactions between current account deficit and gross fiscal deficit in case of a growing and dynamically integrated economy, namely…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to scrutinize the asymmetric interactions between current account deficit and gross fiscal deficit in case of a growing and dynamically integrated economy, namely, India featured with high inequality and liquidity constraints. Two additional variables, trade-openness and output growth, are also incorporated into the analysis to assess their likely impact on the current account balance.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses a recently developed non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model given by Shin et al. (2014) in its empirical examination. In addition, non-linear cumulative dynamic multipliers are used to understand the route between disequilibrium position of short-run and subsequent long-run equilibrium of the system.

Findings

The study confirms the long-run co-movements of current account deficit and gross fiscal deficit and therefore refutes the Ricardian Equivalence proposition and validates the twin-deficit hypothesis. But instead of a linear relationship of the kind examined in the previous studies, the two variables share asymmetric linkages – both in the short run and in the long run. The asymmetry indicates that positive changes are more influential than their negative counterparts in the short run, whereas in the long run, only the positive changes are found to alter the external balance statistically. The asymmetric impact of fiscal deficits on the current account balance of a country may arise due to its asymmetric impact on aggregate demand through consumption inflexibility (ratchet effect) and the existence of liquidity constraints. The other control variables used in the study are also found to have cointegration with the current account deficit, but the relationship is symmetrical in the long run, even though it is asymmetrical in the short run. The study finally uses the asymmetric cumulative dynamic multipliers to examine the route of asymmetries and adjustments over the course of time. The dynamic multipliers also confirm the results documented in the earlier part and therefore demonstrate their robustness.

Practical implications

The asymmetric results obtained in the study provide strong grounds to devise the policies adaptive to changing arenas in domestic and external sectors. Output growth, export promotion and import substitution, increasing integration and fiscal austerity are seen as helpful in achieving a desired (and growth conducive) external balance together with macroeconomic stability. The need for a prudent fiscal policy and avoidance of profligacy is indicated based on the asymmetric results to ward off any unfavorable impact of fiscal deficits on external account. To conduct a sound fiscal policy, the government needs to cut down unproductive consumption expenditure, raise tax revenues and should pay attention to distribution and trickle-down effects to avoid the adversity of high inequality and liquidity constraints in the economy. Moreover, to ameliorate the current account balance, policies aimed at increasing the real competitiveness through control of domestic price fluctuations and improvement in the quality of tradable goods and services (such as productive investments and technological advancements) should be adopted.

Originality/value

Work reported in the present paper is motivated by the fact that there is no study conducted so far in the Indian context which has analyzed the two deficits in a nonlinear framework. The authors have used a well-articulated nonlinear asymmetric technique to examine the relationship between two deficits when asymmetry is incorporated. This paper will, therefore, enrich the existing literature along the lines of asymmetric linkages. Moreover, the traverse of asymmetries and adjustments over the course of time highlights the inherent dynamism of the relationship.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 August 2019

Moumita Basu and Ranjanendra Narayan Nag

This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance and…

Abstract

Purpose

This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance and unemployment in response to some policy-induced shocks for a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses a two-sector framework: one sector is traded and another is the non-traded sector that is subject to an effective demand constraint. The current account imbalance arises due to the discrepancy between production of traded goods, household consumption of traded goods and government purchases of importables. The authors keep the asset structure simple by considering only domestic currency and foreign bonds that are imperfect substitutes. The paper considers a standard methodology of dynamic adjustment process involving change in foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate under perfect foresight. The saddle path properties of the equilibrium are also examined.

Findings

The results of comparative static exercises depend on a set of structural features of a developing country, which include asset substitutability, wage price rigidity and sectoral asymmetries. The paper shows that expansionary monetary policy, balanced budget fiscal expansion and financial liberalization have an ambiguous effect on the current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, non-traded sector and the level of employment.

Originality/value

The existence of Keynesian unemployment with fixed prices is the key ingredient of this paper. The paper introduces the problem of effective demand to analyze the dynamics of current account balance and exchange rate, which, in turn, determine the sectoral composition of output and level of employment.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 46 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 184000