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The present study is an attempt to evaluate the impact of the proposed India-China free trade agreement (FTA) in goods trade on both countries under a static general equilibrium framework.

The study has utilized the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade with the presence of skilled and unskilled unemployment in the world. For analysis purposes, 57 GTAP sectors, representing the whole regional economy, have been aggregated into 43 sectors and 140 GTAP regions, representing the whole world, have been aggregated into 19 regions. The study has also used the updated tariff rates provided by the World Trade Organization for better results.

The preliminary analysis using trade indicators depicted that by utilizing their own comparative advantage, both of the countries can maximize their gains by exporting more to the world. The simulation results from the GTAP analysis revealed that a tariff reduction in all goods trade would be more beneficial for both the countries than the tariff reduction in each other's specialized products. All other regions lose in terms of shifting the Indian imports towards China in a post-simulation environment. Regions with a significant loss are: the European Union (28 members), Southeast Asia, the Unites States, Japan, Korea, West Asia, and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).

The disaggregated sector-wise analysis has been performed using the latest available GTAP database, version 9.

A novel approach to modeling exchange rates is presented based on a set of models distinguished by the drivers of the rate and regime duration. The models are combined into a “meta model” using model averaging and non-nested hypothesis-testing techniques. The meta model accommodates periods of stability and slowly evolving or abruptly changing regimes involving multiple drivers. Estimated meta models for five exchange rates provide a compelling characterization of their determination over the last 40 years or so, identifying “phases” during which the influences from policy and financial market responses to news succumb to equilibrating macroeconomic pressures and vice versa.

The research addresses the issue of elitism in international trade and the barriers in global markets arising from the elitist criteria for transitioning to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The research aims to identify criteria and pathways for achieving a favorable business climate for the transition to IFRS. Based on international statistics from the World Bank for 2019–2021, the authors identify the determinants of the adoption of IFRS using regression analysis. The authors performed econometric modeling of participation in international trade on global markets based on IFRS factors. As a result, the research selected criteria for a favorable business climate for transitioning to IFRS. The selected criteria are feasible for adherence by all countries and ensure the inclusivity of IFRS. The selected criteria include (in decreasing order of significance): improvement of the investment climate, development of public–private partnerships, overcoming the shadow economy, and strengthening the legal environment. The theoretical significance of the author's conclusions lies in the reevaluation of criteria for a favorable business climate for transitioning to IFRS in the context of new, multipolar globalization. The conclusions formulate a set of inclusive criteria that support free international trade and the openness of global markets. The practical significance of the results obtained in the research is that they outline a path to achieving a favorable business climate in Russia and propose a set of authorial recommendations for transitioning Russian businesses to IFRS.

This article analyzes the impact of monetary policy on income inequality across 16 advanced economies. The author investigates three key points: (1) the relationship between domestic monetary policy and domestic income inequality, (2) the spillover effect of USA monetary policy (including quantitative easing) on international inequality and (3) the quantitative influence of the monetary policies of both the USA and the Eurozone on the formation of domestic income inequalities.

The author employed the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, which uses Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables (VARXs) models of each economy to build an integrated system that enables us to evaluate individual responses to global shocks.

The author's analysis reveals that (1) contractionary monetary policy exacerbates domestic inequality and (2) USA monetary policy, including quantitative easing, affects international inequality. Furthermore, the author's variance decomposition analysis highlights that USA monetary policy is especially influential on income inequality in Norway and Sweden. Additionally, the cointegrating analysis confirms that monetary policy's impact on inequality persists in the long term.

Most of the studies focused on investigating domestic economies as closed economies. However, the author's approach differs in that the author uses the GVAR, which treats all economies as open. This allows us to incorporate the world economy into the domestic dynamics and connect the economies using bilateral trade. Another advantage of the GVAR is that it captures spillover effects by modeling each economy and constructing the international economy.

Economic literature highlights both positive and negative impact of FDI on economic growth. The purpose of this study is to confirm the relationship between various economic factors and FDI equity inflows and find out deviations, if any. This is investigated using standard time-series econometric models. The long and short run relationship is inquired with respect to market size, inflation rate, level of infrastructure, domestic investment and openness to trade. The choice of variables for Indian economy is purely based on empirical observations obtained from scientific literature review.

The study involves application of autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model to investigate the relationship. The long run co-integration between FDI and economic growth is tested by Pesaran ARDL model. The stationarity of data is tested by augmented Dickey Fuller test and Phillip–Perron unit root test. Error correction model is applied to study the short run relationship using Johansen’s vector error correction model method besides other tests.

The results show that the domestic investment, inflation rate, level of infrastructure and trade openness influence inward FDI flows. These factors have both long and short-term relationship with FDI inflows. However, market size is insignificant in influencing the foreign investments inflows. There lies an inverse relation between FDI and inflation rate.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the study is original. The methodology and interpretation of results are distinct and different from other similar studies.

The authors investigate the impact of the US stock market on the economies of the BRICS and major industrialized economies (G7).

The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. Global vector autoregressive (GVAR) empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows.

The authors summarize the results in four points: (1) financial integration variables increase the effect of the US stock market on the BRICS and G7, (2) the US shock produces similar responses in these groups regarding industrial production, stock markets and confidence but different responses regarding domestic currencies: in the BRICS, the authors detect appreciation of the currencies, while in the G7, the authors find depreciation, (3) G7 stock markets and policy rates are more sensitive to the US shock than the BRICS and (4) the estimates point out to heterogeneities such as the importance of industrial production to the transmission shock in Japan and China, the exchange rate to India, Japan and the UK, the interest rates to the Eurozone and the UK and confidence to Brazil, South Africa and Canada.

The results reinforce the importance of taking into account different levels of economic development.

The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. GVAR empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows.

Financial market holds superior information that can give insights into the future trajectory of economic growth. Further, identifying sectors that hold the key to future economic growth is important for all economies, but particularly relevant to emerging markets. However, unlike existing studies, the paper provides new insights into the forward-oriented nexus between financial markets and economic growth.

This paper takes a forward-looking approach of using financial market information to predict future economic growth. The authors use ARDL modeling approach to predict economic growth using the information from stock market sectoral returns.

The authors find that sectoral stock returns significantly improve economic growth forecasts. However, the forecasting superiority is not uniform across sectors and horizons. Auto, consumers' spending, materials and realty sectors provide the most forecasting gains. In contrast, banking, capital goods and industrial sectors provide superior forecasts, but only at horizons beyond one year. The authors also find that the forecast superiority of sectors at longer horizons is inversely related to volatility.

Research highlights the need for sector-focused policy actions in driving economic growth. Further, the findings of the paper identify sectors that drive short-, medium- and long-term economic growth.

There is a significant heterogeneity among different sectors and across horizons in predicting economic growth. Results suggest that targeted policy actions in sectors like materials, metals, oil and gas, and realty are key in driving economic growth. Further, policies geared toward the grassroots industries are at least as beneficial as the large-scale industries. Evidence also suggests the need for an active fiscal policy to address infrastructural bottlenecks in primary industries like basic materials and energy. Evidence nevertheless does not undermine the role of monetary policy actions.

Unlike any paper till date, the innovation of the paper is that it takes an ARDL modeling approach to measure stock market sectoral returns' ability to forecast economic growth several months ahead in the future. Though the paper considers the Indian case, the innovation and contribution extents to the entire field of economic studies.

The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast the international trade characteristics of commerce between Latin American countries and some of the top economies in the world, in order to identify new business opportunities for LATAM firms in dynamical external markets.

A triple indexed gravity model, correcting with robust standardized errors clustered, and a panel data analysis was used to obtain the relationship between Latin American countries and advanced and other emerging economies.

The main finding of this paper is that innovation overcomes gravity effects and parameters typical of a knowledge society are the significant ones to explain trade among different regions. The model that includes an innovation proxy accommodates with the new international theories of trade. Besides, communication capacity is essential to reach consumers abroad with newer and more complex products. Moreover, the constant is significant when innovation is included, which may imply intersectoral trade that behaves relatively stable in bilateral trade.

The findings suggest that the economies that have some relevance in trade, have increasing numbers regarding patents. Thus, the empirical findings relate to the theoretical models which state that comparative advantages may be dynamic due to technological innovation.

This paper shows that innovation is a central parameter to engage in intratrade and develop a knowledge-based economy. Latin America sometimes appears to be a puzzle as to how to improve its economic performance and overcome its social and economic problems. Intratrade seems to be the route to increase Latin American business participation in world trade.

El propósito de este documento es comparar y contrastar las características comerciales internacionales del comercio entre los países latinoamericanos y algunas de las principales economías del mundo, con el fin de identificar nuevas oportunidades de negocios para las empresas de LATAM en mercados externos dinámicos.

Se utilizó un modelo de gravedad triple indexado el que se corrigió con errores robustos estandarizados clusterizados, y un análisis de datos de panel para obtener la relación entre los países latinoamericanos y las economías avanzadas y otras economías emergentes.

Uno de los principales hallazgos es que la incorporación de la innovación en el modelo anula el efecto de las variables típicas asociadas a la gravedad. Por lo que se podría suponer que, los parámetros propios de una sociedad del conocimiento son más importantes para explicar el comercio entre las diferentes regiones. El modelo incluye un variable de innovación que se adapta a las nuevas teorías internacionales del comercio. Otro hallazgo es que la capacidad de comunicación es esencial para llegar a los consumidores en el extranjero con productos más nuevos y complejos. Por último, la constante es significativa cuando se incluye la innovación, lo que podría implicar un comercio intersectorial que se comporta relativamente estable en el comercio bilateral.

Los resultados sugieren que las economías que tienen cierta relevancia en el comercio poseen un número creciente de patentes. Por lo tanto, los hallazgos empíricos se relacionan con los modelos teóricos que establecen que las ventajas comparativas pueden ser dinámicas debido a la innovación tecnológica.

Este documento muestra que la innovación es un elemento central para participar en el comercio interno y desarrollar una economía basada en el conocimiento. América Latina a veces parece ser un enigma sobre cómo mejorar su desempeño económico y superar sus problemas sociales y económicos. El comercio intraindustrial parece ser la ruta para aumentar la participación empresarial de América Latina en el comercio mundial.

This study aims to examine the relationship between the oil price and the exchange rate for Nigeria between January 1997 and December 2012. Previous empirical studies revealed an ambiguous relationship between crude oil prices and exchange rates, a reason for exploring the differential effects of positive and negative oil price shocks on the exchange rate.

Time series and structural analysis were used.

The findings indicate different responses for the exchange rate with respect to positive and negative oil price shocks. Positive oil price shocks were found to depreciate the exchange rate, whereas negative oil price shocks appreciate the exchange rate. In addition, the asymmetric effects of positive and negative oil price shocks on the real exchange rate were not supported by the statistical evidences. The empirical results were robust to different specifications.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to assess the differential impact of positive and negative oil price shocks and the role of oil prices in predicting the exchange rate over long horizons in Nigeria.

This paper examines the impact of regional and non-regional trade on economic growth using annual data from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) member countries for the period 2007 to 2017.

Trade data were decomposed into regional (trade among ECOWAS Member States) and non-regional (trade between ECOWAS Member States and the rest of the world). We used the dynamic system GMM to estimate the models and introduced exchange rate, unemployment rate, population growth and gross capital formation as controlled variables.

The results revealed that the estimated coefficient of ECOWAS regional trade is statistically significant and positive in predicting growth, while the non-regional trade coefficient is negative and not statistically significant in predicting growth. Other predictors of growth introduced into the model as controlled variables, such as exchange rate, unemployment rate, population growth and gross capital formation, displayed mixed results. More importantly, population growth, unemployment and exchange rate depreciation hurt economic growth, while gross capital formation promotes economic growth.

The findings provide strong support in favour of the Krugman (1991) hypothesis that regional trade agreements (RTAs) are a better alternative to global trade.

Our decision to disaggregate ECOWAS trade is unique and influenced largely by the objective of the study, which is to establish the type of ECOWAS trade that is a good predictor of growth. The evidence from our findings support the theory that RTAs are a better catalyst to economic growth.