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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the possible asymmetric response of inflation expectations to oil price and policy uncertainty shocks.

The authors used the test of asymmetric impulse responses proposed by Kilian and Vigfusson (2011) to explore the issue of asymmetry.

Unlike other studies that assume symmetric effects, this study finds asymmetric effects of oil price and policy uncertainty on inflation expectations for positive and negative shocks and for pre- and post-financial-crisis periods. In particular other things being same, a same magnitude oil price shock has greater effect on inflation expectations in post-crisis period than in pre-crisis period. Moreover, in post-crisis period a positive increasing oil price shock has greater effect on inflation expectations than a negative decreasing oil price shock.

The paper concludes that FED’s greater focus on output stabilization since financial crisis has made inflation expectations less anchored and a sudden surge in oil price may quickly trigger inflation through inflation expectations.

Exploring the issue of the possible asymmetric effects of oil price and economic policy uncertainty on inflation expectations is a relatively new topic (as other studies only assumed symmetry and did not investigate the possible asymmetry in this regard).

When facing a clouded global economy, many countries would increase their gold reserves. On the other hand, oil supply and demand depends on the political and economic situations of oil producing countries and their production technologies. Both oil and gold reserve play important roles in the economic development of a country. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

This paper uses the historical data of oil and gold prices as research data, and uses the historical price tendency charts of oil and gold, as well as cluster analysis, to discuss the correlation between the historical data of oil and gold prices. By referring to the technical index equation of stocks, the technical indices of oil and gold prices are calculated as the independent variable and the closing price as the dependent variable of the forecasting model.

The findings indicate that there is no obvious correlation between the price tendencies of oil and gold. According to five evaluating indicators, the MFOAGRNN forecast model has better forecast ability than the other three forecasting models.

This paper explored the correlation between oil and gold prices, and built oil and gold prices forecasting models. In addition, this paper proposes a modified FOA (MFOA), where an escape parameter Δ is added to Si. The findings showed that the forecasting model that combines MFOA and GRNN has the best ability to forecast the closing price of oil and gold.

The primary aim of this chapter is to examine whether the recent increase in world oil prices has affected inflation expectations and stock market returns in major OECD countries. The key findings are as follows. First, we found no evidence to support the presence of a long term relationship between oil prices and inflation expectations – measured by the difference between yields of inflation indexed and non-inflation indexed government bonds – over the sample between early 2003 and late 2006. Second, higher oil prices are found to lead to expectations of higher inflation. This evidence is stronger over the period where oil prices had been higher and signs of capacity constraints in the economy were emerging. Third, the impact of higher oil prices on stock market returns differs among countries. While higher oil prices are found to adversely affect stock market returns in the United States, the United Kingdom and France, the effects are positive in Canada and Australia as these countries are significant exporters of energy resources.

This study aims to examine the spillover effects of the mean and volatility between oil prices and stock indices of six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain).

Over the period 2008–2019, a bivariate VARMA-GARCH-ADCC model was combined with the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform technique filter to shed light on a wide range of possible spillover effects in the mean and variances of level prices at various time horizons.

The authors find that the spillover effects between oil prices and the GCC stock markets are time-varying and spread across various time horizons. Besides, oil prices and stock market indices are directly impacted by their own shocks and variations and indirectly influenced by other price volatilities and wavelet scales. The linkages in volatility spillovers between oil prices and the GCC stock markets occur in the short-term, midterm and long-term horizons. More specifically, the results also show that the asymmetric estimates are statistically significant for the associations between oil prices and each stock market in the GCC countries. This implies that negative shocks play a more vital role than positive shocks in driving the dynamic condition correlations between oil and stock markets under study.

The significant interrelatedness between oil prices and each stock market in the GCC countries has important implications for investors, portfolio managers, and other market participants. They can use the findings of this research to create the best oil-GCC stock portfolios and predict more precisely the volatility spillover patterns in constructing their hedging strategies.

In several ways, this study differs from previous research. First, while previous empirical studies of the dynamic link between oil prices and stock markets have focused primarily on developed or emerging markets, the focus of this is on six GCC countries. Second, the linkage between oil prices and stock markets is typically studied at the original data level in the time domain in relevant literature, while frequency information is overlooked. Therefore, the current study examines this relationship from a multiscale perspective. Third, in this paper, to capture a wide range of possible spillover effects in the mean and variance of level prices at multiple wavelet scales, the authors use a VARMA-GARCH-ADCC model in conjunction with wavelet multiresolution analysis. Additionally, this article also applies wavelet hedge ratio and wavelet hedge portfolio analysis at various time horizons.

The article analyzes how oil price fluctuations are reflected in the management of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) based on its balance sheet (BS) and particularly how oil price fluctuations affect Pemex's corporate income.

The author uses a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model with seven variables for the period 1977–2019. The first variable is the oil price and the others belong to Pemex's BS: total income, sales revenue, operating costs, investment, payment of taxes, duties and contributions (TDC) and the payment of interest on debt.

The results show that in an environment of elevated fiscal burden that is of an excessive payment of tax by Pemex to the state, the price increases positively affected the income obtained from sales, but that surplus is used primarily to finance the fiscal expenses coming from the TDC, which is associated with the production and commercialization of hydrocarbons; physical and financial investment is disconnected from the evolution of price. Under a fiscal scheme that extracts, on average, 98.46% of Pemex's income, investment is not a priority.

The findings of the research have important implications for Mexico's energy policy because of affecting the long-term financial and productive sustainability of Pemex.

First, the study contributes to the literature on oil prices in Mexico by analyzing Pemex's fiscal burden from a corporate finance perspective, an area in which there are few rigorous studies. Second, the study contributes by providing quantitative support for the relationship between oil prices and BS variables through the VAR model.

This paper aims to clarify the relationship between oil product prices and factors describing the most crucial emerging trends in fuel consumption. The work is aimed to test the hypothesis that the proliferation of alternative fuel cars is a significant factor in determining the level of motor fuel prices. The influence of technical standards of oil products on the model parameters is also analysed.

The hypothesis testing is carried out on the basis of an econometric analysis of information regarding the North-West European commodity market and the data on the registration of alternative fuel passenger vehicles. Time series are analysed for the presence of a structural shift in the parameters of the model as a result of changes in the requirements of technical regulations for fuel.

The results suggest a different nature of the influence of the proliferation of alternative fuel passenger vehicles – it has little effect on diesel prices, whilst the indicators under study have a negative effect on the prices of motor gasoline. The construction of oil product price models has confirmed the impact of tightening the technical requirements for the parameters of dependence equations.

The obtained results can be used in forecasting price indicators in oil refining for strategic and investment purposes.

This paper fulfils an identified need to take into account the emerging global trends in fuel consumption to obtain reliable parameters for oil product price modelling.

This paper aims to better understand if speculative activity is a factor or even the main factor in the run-up of oil prices in the spot market, particularly in the recent price bubble that occurred in the period from mid-2003 to 2008.

The methodology used is based on an existing vector autoregressive model proposed by Kilian and Murphy (2014), which is a structural model of the global market for crude oil that accounts for flow demand and flow supply shocks and speculative demand oil shocks.

From the output of the authors’ structural model, the authors ruled out speculation as a factor of rising oil prices. The authors have found instead that the rapid oil demand caused by an unexpected increase in the global business cycle is the most accurate culprit. Despite the change of perspective in the speculative component, the authors’ conclusions concur with the findings of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and others.

As far as the authors are aware, this is the first time that a study has used as a spread oil variable, a speculative component of the real price, replacing the oil inventories considered by Kilian and Murphy (2014). Another contribution is that the model used allows estimating traditional oil demand elasticity in production and oil supply elasticity in spread movements, casting doubt on existing models with perfect price-inelastic output for crude oil.