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Article
Publication date: 4 March 2019

Khandokar Istiak and Md Rafayet Alam

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the possible asymmetric response of inflation expectations to oil price and policy uncertainty shocks.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the possible asymmetric response of inflation expectations to oil price and policy uncertainty shocks.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used the test of asymmetric impulse responses proposed by Kilian and Vigfusson (2011) to explore the issue of asymmetry.

Findings

Unlike other studies that assume symmetric effects, this study finds asymmetric effects of oil price and policy uncertainty on inflation expectations for positive and negative shocks and for pre- and post-financial-crisis periods. In particular other things being same, a same magnitude oil price shock has greater effect on inflation expectations in post-crisis period than in pre-crisis period. Moreover, in post-crisis period a positive increasing oil price shock has greater effect on inflation expectations than a negative decreasing oil price shock.

Practical implications

The paper concludes that FED’s greater focus on output stabilization since financial crisis has made inflation expectations less anchored and a sudden surge in oil price may quickly trigger inflation through inflation expectations.

Originality/value

Exploring the issue of the possible asymmetric effects of oil price and economic policy uncertainty on inflation expectations is a relatively new topic (as other studies only assumed symmetry and did not investigate the possible asymmetry in this regard).

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 46 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 July 2014

Wen-Tsao Pan

When facing a clouded global economy, many countries would increase their gold reserves. On the other hand, oil supply and demand depends on the political and economic…

Abstract

Purpose

When facing a clouded global economy, many countries would increase their gold reserves. On the other hand, oil supply and demand depends on the political and economic situations of oil producing countries and their production technologies. Both oil and gold reserve play important roles in the economic development of a country. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses the historical data of oil and gold prices as research data, and uses the historical price tendency charts of oil and gold, as well as cluster analysis, to discuss the correlation between the historical data of oil and gold prices. By referring to the technical index equation of stocks, the technical indices of oil and gold prices are calculated as the independent variable and the closing price as the dependent variable of the forecasting model.

Findings

The findings indicate that there is no obvious correlation between the price tendencies of oil and gold. According to five evaluating indicators, the MFOAGRNN forecast model has better forecast ability than the other three forecasting models.

Originality/value

This paper explored the correlation between oil and gold prices, and built oil and gold prices forecasting models. In addition, this paper proposes a modified FOA (MFOA), where an escape parameter Δ is added to Si. The findings showed that the forecasting model that combines MFOA and GRNN has the best ability to forecast the closing price of oil and gold.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 43 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 March 2008

T.J. O’Neill, J. Penm and R.D. Terrell

The primary aim of this chapter is to examine whether the recent increase in world oil prices has affected inflation expectations and stock market returns in major OECD…

Abstract

The primary aim of this chapter is to examine whether the recent increase in world oil prices has affected inflation expectations and stock market returns in major OECD countries. The key findings are as follows. First, we found no evidence to support the presence of a long term relationship between oil prices and inflation expectations – measured by the difference between yields of inflation indexed and non-inflation indexed government bonds – over the sample between early 2003 and late 2006. Second, higher oil prices are found to lead to expectations of higher inflation. This evidence is stronger over the period where oil prices had been higher and signs of capacity constraints in the economy were emerging. Third, the impact of higher oil prices on stock market returns differs among countries. While higher oil prices are found to adversely affect stock market returns in the United States, the United Kingdom and France, the effects are positive in Canada and Australia as these countries are significant exporters of energy resources.

Details

Research in Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-549-9

Article
Publication date: 15 March 2022

Ho Thuy Tien and Ngo Thai Hung

This study aims to examine the spillover effects of the mean and volatility between oil prices and stock indices of six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (UAE…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the spillover effects of the mean and volatility between oil prices and stock indices of six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain).

Design/methodology/approach

Over the period 2008–2019, a bivariate VARMA-GARCH-ADCC model was combined with the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform technique filter to shed light on a wide range of possible spillover effects in the mean and variances of level prices at various time horizons.

Findings

The authors find that the spillover effects between oil prices and the GCC stock markets are time-varying and spread across various time horizons. Besides, oil prices and stock market indices are directly impacted by their own shocks and variations and indirectly influenced by other price volatilities and wavelet scales. The linkages in volatility spillovers between oil prices and the GCC stock markets occur in the short-term, midterm and long-term horizons. More specifically, the results also show that the asymmetric estimates are statistically significant for the associations between oil prices and each stock market in the GCC countries. This implies that negative shocks play a more vital role than positive shocks in driving the dynamic condition correlations between oil and stock markets under study.

Practical implications

The significant interrelatedness between oil prices and each stock market in the GCC countries has important implications for investors, portfolio managers, and other market participants. They can use the findings of this research to create the best oil-GCC stock portfolios and predict more precisely the volatility spillover patterns in constructing their hedging strategies.

Originality/value

In several ways, this study differs from previous research. First, while previous empirical studies of the dynamic link between oil prices and stock markets have focused primarily on developed or emerging markets, the focus of this is on six GCC countries. Second, the linkage between oil prices and stock markets is typically studied at the original data level in the time domain in relevant literature, while frequency information is overlooked. Therefore, the current study examines this relationship from a multiscale perspective. Third, in this paper, to capture a wide range of possible spillover effects in the mean and variance of level prices at multiple wavelet scales, the authors use a VARMA-GARCH-ADCC model in conjunction with wavelet multiresolution analysis. Additionally, this article also applies wavelet hedge ratio and wavelet hedge portfolio analysis at various time horizons.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Dynamic Linkages and Volatility Spillover
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-554-6

Abstract

Details

Energy Economics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-294-2

Abstract

Details

Functional Structure Inference
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44453-061-5

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 February 2022

Angélica Tacuba

The article analyzes how oil price fluctuations are reflected in the management of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) based on its balance sheet (BS) and particularly how oil

Abstract

Purpose

The article analyzes how oil price fluctuations are reflected in the management of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) based on its balance sheet (BS) and particularly how oil price fluctuations affect Pemex's corporate income.

Design/methodology/approach

The author uses a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model with seven variables for the period 1977–2019. The first variable is the oil price and the others belong to Pemex's BS: total income, sales revenue, operating costs, investment, payment of taxes, duties and contributions (TDC) and the payment of interest on debt.

Findings

The results show that in an environment of elevated fiscal burden that is of an excessive payment of tax by Pemex to the state, the price increases positively affected the income obtained from sales, but that surplus is used primarily to finance the fiscal expenses coming from the TDC, which is associated with the production and commercialization of hydrocarbons; physical and financial investment is disconnected from the evolution of price. Under a fiscal scheme that extracts, on average, 98.46% of Pemex's income, investment is not a priority.

Practical implications

The findings of the research have important implications for Mexico's energy policy because of affecting the long-term financial and productive sustainability of Pemex.

Originality/value

First, the study contributes to the literature on oil prices in Mexico by analyzing Pemex's fiscal burden from a corporate finance perspective, an area in which there are few rigorous studies. Second, the study contributes by providing quantitative support for the relationship between oil prices and BS variables through the VAR model.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 September 2021

Vladimir Ulanov and Oleg Skorobogatko

This paper aims to clarify the relationship between oil product prices and factors describing the most crucial emerging trends in fuel consumption. The work is aimed to…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to clarify the relationship between oil product prices and factors describing the most crucial emerging trends in fuel consumption. The work is aimed to test the hypothesis that the proliferation of alternative fuel cars is a significant factor in determining the level of motor fuel prices. The influence of technical standards of oil products on the model parameters is also analysed.

Design/methodology/approach

The hypothesis testing is carried out on the basis of an econometric analysis of information regarding the North-West European commodity market and the data on the registration of alternative fuel passenger vehicles. Time series are analysed for the presence of a structural shift in the parameters of the model as a result of changes in the requirements of technical regulations for fuel.

Findings

The results suggest a different nature of the influence of the proliferation of alternative fuel passenger vehicles – it has little effect on diesel prices, whilst the indicators under study have a negative effect on the prices of motor gasoline. The construction of oil product price models has confirmed the impact of tightening the technical requirements for the parameters of dependence equations.

Practical implications

The obtained results can be used in forecasting price indicators in oil refining for strategic and investment purposes.

Originality/value

This paper fulfils an identified need to take into account the emerging global trends in fuel consumption to obtain reliable parameters for oil product price modelling.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 September 2021

Elisabete Neves, Vítor Oliveira, Joana Leite and Carla Henriques

This paper aims to better understand if speculative activity is a factor or even the main factor in the run-up of oil prices in the spot market, particularly in the recent…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to better understand if speculative activity is a factor or even the main factor in the run-up of oil prices in the spot market, particularly in the recent price bubble that occurred in the period from mid-2003 to 2008.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology used is based on an existing vector autoregressive model proposed by Kilian and Murphy (2014), which is a structural model of the global market for crude oil that accounts for flow demand and flow supply shocks and speculative demand oil shocks.

Findings

From the output of the authors’ structural model, the authors ruled out speculation as a factor of rising oil prices. The authors have found instead that the rapid oil demand caused by an unexpected increase in the global business cycle is the most accurate culprit. Despite the change of perspective in the speculative component, the authors’ conclusions concur with the findings of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and others.

Originality/value

As far as the authors are aware, this is the first time that a study has used as a spread oil variable, a speculative component of the real price, replacing the oil inventories considered by Kilian and Murphy (2014). Another contribution is that the model used allows estimating traditional oil demand elasticity in production and oil supply elasticity in spread movements, casting doubt on existing models with perfect price-inelastic output for crude oil.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 11 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

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