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Article
Publication date: 11 September 2009

Faiz M. Shaikh

The purpose of this paper is to quantify and analyze the relative impact of agriculture Trade liberalization and South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) over the global…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to quantify and analyze the relative impact of agriculture Trade liberalization and South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) over the global economic welfare. The objectives are to analyze and quantify the potential economic cost and benefits of the prospective trade between India and Pakistan to consumers, producers and government of the two countries by analyzing the potential economic costs and benefits of Pak‐India trade in exporting various consumer goods.

Design/methodology/approach

The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database is the database for the GTAP model of the world economy, which is publicly available. The main data source for this model is “The GTAP 4 Data Base” which is easy to adapt to appropriate sectoral and regional aggregations that allow one to focus on specific policy questions. The regional databases in the model are derived from individual country input‐output (I/O) tables that provide information about the individual regional economies in the model. The bilateral trade data are primarily derived from the United Nations Commodity Trade database. The economic research service (ERS) of the United States Department of Agriculture supplies the missing information in the UN trade data.

Findings

The first scenario is when normal trading relations with India will be restored; it means that each country will give the most‐favored‐nations (MFN) status to the other. In the second scenario, the SAFTA will be operative, and there will be free trade between India and Pakistan, and both countries will remove all tariffs and custom duties from each other's imports. The GTAP model is used to analyze the possible impact of SAFTA on Pakistan in a multi‐country, multi‐sector applied general equilibrium framework.

Originality/value

The analysis based on simulations reveals that current demand for Pakistani consumer items will expand after the free trade agreement (FTA) and consumer surplus will increase. The export of consumer items may be conducted by two scenarios, i.e. when normal trading relations between Pakistan and India will be restored and when there will be a free trade between Pakistan and India in the presence of SAFTA. Results based on this research reveal that, on SAFTA grounds, there will be net export benefits in Pakistan's economy.

Details

Journal of International Trade Law and Policy, vol. 8 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-0024

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 24 September 2010

Alla Golub, Thomas W. Hertel, Farzad Taheripour and Wallace E. Tyner

Over the past decade, biofuels production in the European Union and the United States has boomed – much of this due to government mandates and subsidies. The United States…

Abstract

Over the past decade, biofuels production in the European Union and the United States has boomed – much of this due to government mandates and subsidies. The United States has now surpassed Brazil as the world's leading producer of ethanol. The economic and environmental impact of these biofuel programs has become an important question of public policy. Due to the complex intersectoral linkages between biofuels and crops, livestock as well as energy activities, CGE modeling has become an important tool for their analysis. This chapter reviews recent developments in this area of economic analysis and suggests directions for future research.

Details

New Developments in Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Trade Policy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-142-9

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 February 2013

Krishna Chikhuri

The aim of this paper is to deal with the linkage between agricultural trade liberalization and food security in Sub‐Saharan Africa.

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Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to deal with the linkage between agricultural trade liberalization and food security in Sub‐Saharan Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis uses the GTAP model which is a global dynamic applied general equilibrium model to assess how the multifarious trade and support policies in agriculture affect the poor in the Sub‐Saharan African group based on food security concerns. The policy strategies analyzed are two liberalization scenarios based on the proposals made in the present round of agricultural negotiations in terms of market access and export competition, plus a free agricultural trade benchmark scenario.

Findings

The results of alternative trade liberalization strategies on key food security indicators in the SSA region are ambiguous. The impact varies depending on the extent of liberalization and also the comparative advantage of the SSA group at the sectoral level.

Originality/value

Despite several studies on food security, especially after the food crisis in 2008, very little research has focussed on the agricultural trade liberalization impact with a CGE approach.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 40 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 July 2014

Chanwahn Kim, Mohammad Masudur Rahman and Laila Arjuman Ara

– The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential economic effects of the proposed Bangladesh-India free trade agreement (FTA).

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential economic effects of the proposed Bangladesh-India free trade agreement (FTA).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors have used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database. The analysis highlights the possible costs and benefits of the two nations within three different scenarios. Under Scenario I all bilateral import tariffs between Bangladesh and India are removed; Scenario II represents the setting where Bangladesh cuts its all tariffs by 75 and in Scenario III Bangladesh cuts tariffs by 50 percent. India cuts all their tariffs by 100 percent in all three scenarios.

Findings

The findings indicate that India may gain more in terms of welfare and real GDP via the improved terms of trade while Bangladesh is going to have welfare loss, but if Bangladesh is able to make a preferential FTA like Scenario III with India its welfare, real GDP and exports will be increased substantially.

Originality/value

This paper is the first-ever attempt to estimate the effect of the proposed Bangladesh-India FTA using CGE analysis of GTAP database version 7.

Details

South Asian Journal of Global Business Research, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2045-4457

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 April 2013

Paul T-W Lee, Tsung-Chen Lee and Tzu-Han Yang

This paper aims to explore the impacts of the recent development of Korean free trade agreements (FTAs) on its seaborne trade volumes. The paper firstly estimates the…

Abstract

This paper aims to explore the impacts of the recent development of Korean free trade agreements (FTAs) on its seaborne trade volumes. The paper firstly estimates the changes in cargo value flows caused by Korea-EU FTA, Korea-USA FTA and Korea-ASEAN FTA using a global computable general equilibrium model named Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and its most recent database - version 7 with 2004 as the base year. Then a set of systematic conversion factors transferring trade value flows to volume flows of different types of commodities is calibrated according to the United Nations COMTRADE database and is used to convert the GTAP trade value flows into volume flows. Having indentified maritime cargo flows by different commodity types, this paper attempts to draw implications for maritime logistics policy in order to facilitate the trade of Korean merchandises and to propose key competitive strategy for the maritime container transport networking and logistics service providers in the Korean logistics industry.

Details

Journal of International Logistics and Trade, vol. 11 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1738-2122

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 April 2016

Inkyo Cheong

Since it is difficult for researchers to access data for the North Korean economy, they typically choose a proxy economy for estimating the economic impact of the…

Abstract

Since it is difficult for researchers to access data for the North Korean economy, they typically choose a proxy economy for estimating the economic impact of the unification of the two Koreas using a computational general equilibrium (CGE). This paper aims to identify the best proxy economy for North Korea out of the 140 economies (countries) in the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database version 9.1, which was published in mid-2015. (Ed- if your study aim is ‘to identify the best proxy economy for North Korea’, then you must state your study finding here in the abstract, and also in the conclusion, i.e., Romania) This paper evaluates the input-output (IO) tables for the North Korean economy in existing studies. Comparing the coefficients for North Korea in existing studies with those of the countries selected for this paper, substantial differences were found, especially for the services sector. This casts some doubt on the IO tables in the existing studies on the North Korean economy.

Details

Journal of International Logistics and Trade, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1738-2122

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 15 July 2017

Farzad Taheripour and Wallace E. Tyner

The purpose of this chapter is to ask and answer the question of what would happen if Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) plant materials were banned. We report on two…

Abstract

The purpose of this chapter is to ask and answer the question of what would happen if Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) plant materials were banned. We report on two studies – one with United States only ban and one with a global ban. We used a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), for the analysis. This model has been used in hundreds of published papers on trade, energy, land use, and environmental issues. Our use of the model was to estimate the crop yield benefits for the major GMO crops, and then to convert this to a loss if the GMO traits were banned. We then shocked the GTAP model with the yield losses and estimate economic, land use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission impacts. We found that losing the GM technology would cause commodity and food prices to increase and also bring about a significant increase in GHG emissions. The increase in emissions is caused by the need to convert forest and pasture to compensate for the lost production. Another interesting conclusion of the global ban study is that economic well-being for the United States, the world’s largest GMO user, actually increases with a ban. Many regions that ban or use little GMO varieties like the European Union, India, China, and Japan all see economic well-being decrease. These counterintuitive results are driven mainly by trade patterns. Therefore GMO technology helps agriculture reduce its carbon footprint. Without this technology, agricultural land-use GHG emissions increase as do food prices. Some groups would like to see GMOs banned and also see GHG emissions fall. You cannot have it both ways.

Details

World Agricultural Resources and Food Security
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-515-3

Keywords

Abstract

Details

The Political Economy of Policy Reform: Essays in Honor of J. Michael Finger
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-816-3

Article
Publication date: 20 June 2016

Sheng Lu

This study aims to empirically investigate the potential impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on US textile and apparel manufacturing.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to empirically investigate the potential impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on US textile and apparel manufacturing.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model based on the latest GTAP9 database.

Findings

The findings of the study suggest that: the “yarn-forward” rule will not work effectively in the context of TPP; and the development of Vietnam’s local textile industry is a critical threat to the survival of US textile and apparel (T&A) manufacturing in the long run.

Originality/value

The findings of the study augment the understanding of the T&A-specific sectoral impact of TPP and address the particular concerns of the US T&A manufacturers with regard to the new business environment and the possible scenarios after the implementation of the agreement.

Details

Journal of International Trade Law and Policy, vol. 15 no. 2/3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-0024

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 15 July 2017

Abstract

Details

World Agricultural Resources and Food Security
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-515-3

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