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Book part
Publication date: 30 May 2018

Albert A. Okunade, Xiaohui You and Kayhan Koleyni

The search for more effective policies, choice of optimal implementation strategies for achieving defined policy targets (e.g., cost-containment, improved access, and…

Abstract

The search for more effective policies, choice of optimal implementation strategies for achieving defined policy targets (e.g., cost-containment, improved access, and quality healthcare outcomes), and selection among the metrics relevant for assessing health system policy change performance simultaneously pose continuing healthcare sector challenges for many countries of the world. Meanwhile, research on the core drivers of healthcare costs across the health systems of the many countries continues to gain increased momentum as these countries learn among themselves. Consequently, cross-country comparison studies largely focus their interests on the relationship among health expenditures (HCE), GDP, aging demographics, and technology. Using more recent 1980–2014 annual data panel on 34 OECD countries and the panel ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) framework, this study investigates the long- and short-run relationships among aggregate healthcare expenditure, income (GDP per capita or per capita GDP_HCE), age dependency ratio, and “international co-operation patents” (for capturing the technology effects). Results from the panel ARDL approach and Granger causality tests suggest a long-run relationship among healthcare expenditure and the three major determinants. Findings from the Westerlund test with bootstrapping further corroborate the existence of a long-run relationship among healthcare expenditure and the three core determinants. Interestingly, GDP less health expenditure (GDP_HCE) is the only short-run driver of HCE. The income elasticity estimates, falling in the 1.16–1.46 range, suggest that the behavior of aggregate healthcare in the 34 OECD countries tends toward those for luxury goods. Finally, through cross-country technology spillover effects, these OECD countries benefit significantly from international investments through technology cooperations resulting in jointly owned patents.

Article
Publication date: 31 January 2022

İsmail Cem Özgüler, Z. Göknur Büyükkara and C. Coskun Küçüközmen

The purpose of this study is to determine the Turkish housing price and rent dynamics among seven big cities with a unique monthly data set over 2003–2019. The secondary…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to determine the Turkish housing price and rent dynamics among seven big cities with a unique monthly data set over 2003–2019. The secondary purpose is to examine bubble dynamics within the price convergence framework through alternative tests.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper conducts two autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration estimates for housing prices and rents and applies conditional error correction model to investigate the long-run drivers of the Turkish housing market. The authors compare ARDL cointegration in-sample forecasts and discounted cash flow (DCF) estimates with actual prices to determine the timing, magnitude and collapse period(s) of bubbles within the price convergence framework. In particular, the generalized sup augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) approach time stamps multiple explosive price behaviors.

Findings

The ARDL results confirm the theory of investment value by addressing mortgage rates, the price-to-rent ratio and rents as the fundamental factors of house prices. The price-to-rent ratio offers a comparison mechanism among houses deciding to buy a new house in which rents increase monthly real estate investment returns, and mortgage rates act as the discount rate. One key finding is that these dynamics have a greater impact on house prices than mortgage rates. Furthermore, the ARDL, DCF and GSADF findings exhibit temporal overvaluations rather than bubble signals, implying that housing price appreciations, including explosive behaviors, are consistent with fundamental advances.

Originality/value

This paper is considered to be innovative in determining housing market dynamics through two different ARDL estimates for the Turkish housing price index and rents in real terms as dependent variables. The authors compare the boom and collapse periods of the real housing price index and its fundamentals via the GSADF test. A final key feature of this research is its extensive data set, with 11 different regressors between 2003 and 2019.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 February 2019

Mohsen Ahmadi and Rahim Taghizadeh

The purpose of this paper is to focus on modeling economy growth with indicators of knowledge-based economy (KBE) introduced by World Bank for a case study in Iran during…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to focus on modeling economy growth with indicators of knowledge-based economy (KBE) introduced by World Bank for a case study in Iran during 1993-2013.

Design/methodology/approach

First, for grouping and reducing the number of variables, Tukey method and the principal component analysis are used. Also for modeling, 67 per cent of data is used for training in the two approaches of ARDL bounds testing and gene expression programming (GEP) and 33 per cent of them for testing the models. Then, the result models are compared with fitness function and Akaike information criteria (AIC).

Findings

The GEP model with fitness 945.7461 for training data and 954.8403 for testing data from 1000 is better than ARDL bounds testing model with fitness 335.5479 from 1000. In addition, according to model comparison tools (AIC), the GEP model has an extremely larger weight in comparison with ARDL bounds model. Therefore, the GEP model is introduced for future use in academia.

Practical implications

Knowledge and information is one of the most basic sources of wealth in economists’ sight. Thus, using KBE indicators appears essential in economic growth regarding daily progress in knowledge processes and its different theories. It is also extremely important to determine an appropriate model for KBE indicators which play a highly important role in the allocation of the economic resources of the country in an optimal manner.

Originality/value

This paper introduced a novel expression for economy growth using KBE indicators. All the data and the indicators are extracted from Word Bank service between 1993 and 2013.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 September 2019

Lord Mensah, Divine Allotey, Emmanuel Sarpong-Kumankoma and William Coffie

This paper aims to test whether a debt threshold of public debt has any effect on economic growth in Africa.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to test whether a debt threshold of public debt has any effect on economic growth in Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors applied the panel autoregressive distributed models on 38 African countries with annual data from 1970 to 2015. It was established that the threshold and the trajectory of debt has an impact on economic growth.

Findings

Specifically, the authors found that public debt hampers economic growth when the depth is in the region of 20 to 80 per cent of GDP. Based on debt trajectory, this study established that increasing public debt beyond 50 to 80 per cent of GDP adversely affects economic growth in Africa. The study also finds that the persistent rise in debt also has adverse effect on economic growth in the African countries in the sample. It must be known to policymakers that the threshold of debt in developing countries, and for that matter African countries, are less than that of developed countries.

Practical implications

This study suggests threshold effects between 20 and 50 per cent; this should be a guide for policymakers in the accumulation of debt stock. Interestingly, the findings suggest some debt trajectory effect, which policymakers might consider by increasing efforts to reduce debt levels when they fall between 50 to 80 per cent of GDP. This implies that reducing such debt levels can help African countries increase their economic growth.

Originality/value

The study is unique because it seeks to add new evidence on the relationship between public debt and growth in the African region, by considering the impact of the persistent growth of public debt on economic growth.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 19 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 June 2021

Ahamed Lebbe Mohamed Aslam and Sabraz Nawaz Samsudeen

The objective of this study is to explore the dynamic inter-linkage between foreign aid and economic growth in Sri Lanka over the period of 1960–2018.

Abstract

Purpose

The objective of this study is to explore the dynamic inter-linkage between foreign aid and economic growth in Sri Lanka over the period of 1960–2018.

Design/methodology/approach

Both exploratory and inferential data analysis tools have been employed to examine the objective of this study. The exploratory data analysis covered the scatter plots, confidence ellipse with kernel fit. The inferential data analysis included the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) unit root tests, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) Bounds co-integration technique and the Granger causality test.

Findings

The test result of exploratory data analysis indicates that there is a positive relationship between foreign aid and economic growth. The ADF and PP unit root tests results indicate that the variables used in this study are stationary at their 1st difference. The co-integration test result confirms the presence of long-run relationship between foreign aid and economic growth in Sri Lanka. The estimated coefficient of foreign aid in the long-run and the short-run shows that foreign aid has a positive relationship with economic growth in Sri Lanka. The estimated coefficient of error correction term indicates that approximately 26.6% of errors are adjusted each year and further shows that the response variable of economic growth moves towards the long-run equilibrium path. The Granger causality test result shows that foreign aid in short-run Granger causes economic growth in Sri Lanka which means that one-way causality from foreign aid to economic growth is confirmed. Further, the estimated coefficient of error correction term confirms that there is the long-run Granger causal relationship between foreign aid and economic growth in Sri Lanka.

Practical implications

The findings of this study have some important policy implications for the design of efficient policy related to foreign aid and economic growth, the knowledge of which will help follow sustainable foreign aid and growth nexus.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing literature by using the newly introduced ARDL Bounds cointegration technique to investigate the dynamic inter-linkage between foreign aid and economic growth in Sri Lanka.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 December 2021

Gideon Ntim-Amo, Yin Qi, Ernest Ankrah-Kwarko, Martinson Ankrah Twumasi, Stephen Ansah, Linda Boateng Kissiwa and Ran Ruiping

The purpose of this research is to examine the validity of the agriculture-induced environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis with evidence from an autoregressive…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to examine the validity of the agriculture-induced environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis with evidence from an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach with a structural break including real income and energy consumption in the model for Ghana over the period 1980–2014.

Design/methodology/approach

The ARDL approach with a structural break was used to analyze the agriculture-induced EKC model which has not been studied in Ghana. The dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), canonical cointegration regression (CCR) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) econometric methods were further used to validate the robustness of the estimates, and the direction of the relationship between the study variables was also clarified using the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test.

Findings

The ARDL results revealed that GDP, energy consumption and agricultural value added have significant positive effects on CO2 emissions, while GDP2 reduces CO2 emissions. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test results show a bidirectional causality running from GDP and energy consumption to CO2 emissions whereas a unidirectional long-term causality runs from GDP2 and agriculture value-added to CO2 emissions.

Practical implications

This finding validated the presence of the agriculture-induced EKC hypothesis in Ghana in both the short run and long run, and the important role of agriculture and energy consumption in economic growth was confirmed by the respective bidirectional and unidirectional causal relationships between the two variables and GDP. Thus, a reduction in unsustainable agricultural practices is recommended through specific policies to strengthen institutional quality in Ghana for a paradigm shift from rudimentary technology to modern sustainable agrarian technologies.

Originality/value

This study is novel in the EKC literature in Ghana, as no study has yet been done on agriculture-induced EKC in Ghana, and the other EKC studies also failed to account for structural breaks which have been done by this study. This study further includes a causality analysis to examine the direction of the relationship which the few EKC studies in Ghana failed to address. Finally, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), canonical cointegration regression (CCR) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) methods are used for robustness check, unlike other studies with single methodologies.

Details

Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, vol. 33 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-7835

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 June 2021

Thazhungal Govindan Saji

The Global recession of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in the postworld war economic history that brought in severe disruptions in global investments and capital…

Abstract

Purpose

The Global recession of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in the postworld war economic history that brought in severe disruptions in global investments and capital flows. Not surprisingly, research interest in the field of market integration has considerably increased over the last decade. This paper analyses the dynamics of price integration among Asian financial markets during the postfinancial crisis period.

Design/methodology/approach

We employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and a Granger Causality/Block Exogeniety test from a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on monthly stock index data of five leading Asian economies from April 2009 to March 2020.

Findings

The cointegration results could not produce any conclusive evidence of long-run relations between stock markets. There exists weak price convergence among markets, and financial integration is partial and in an imperfect form.

Research limitations/implications

Stock price performance in China is closely “coupled” with that in India, but both markets appear to be the short-run predictors of Asian stock returns. The research uses only the benchmark stock indices of the selected economies. Consideration of mid-cap and small-cap segments where foreign investments are significant today can validate the findings further.

Practical implications

The asymmetric pattern of price behavior of Asian markets has important implications for the pricing efficiency of national markets and offers arbitrage potentials for global investors to optimize returns through market diversifications on a long-term perspective. The finding definitely will be a great help to investors who are potentially interested in a trading strategy that offers greater returns with limited exposure to market risks.

Originality/value

Compared with previous studies, the research uses the most recent data of leading Asian markets and applies the robust method of ARDL Bounds testing approach that allows us to understand better if the economic recoveries and advancement have had an effect on market coupling and stock price transmissions.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 47 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 January 2016

Vedat Yorucu

The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for Turkey by utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag approach…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for Turkey by utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag approach to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationships of CO2 emissions between foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) and electricity consumption (ELC). The results reveal that foreign tourists and ELC are significant determinants of a long-run equilibrium relationship with CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production and CO2 emissions from transport for Turkey, respectively. The results of the conditional error correction models (CECM) confirm that there are long-run causal relationships from the growing number of foreign tourist arrivals and the increase of ELC toward the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. The results of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) error correction models for CO2 emissions also validate significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in the short run.

Design/methodology/approach

ARDL modeling and Bounds test approach were used in this study.

Findings

Rapid tourism development in Turkey has triggered CO2 emissions. The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey threatens sustainability. The hypothesis of “The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey” is validated. Tourist arrivals, ELC and CO2 emissions are co-integrated. CECMs confirm the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. ARDL modeling shows significant relationships between CO2 emissions and other variables.

Originality/value

Results of ARDL error correction models for CO2 emissions validate the hypothesis that there are significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in Turkey for the short run.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 July 2019

Aravind M. and Jayaram Nayar

The Oman economy is dominated by production and export of petroleum products and an overdependence on oil revenue, which may have contributed to the continuance of the…

Abstract

Purpose

The Oman economy is dominated by production and export of petroleum products and an overdependence on oil revenue, which may have contributed to the continuance of the “resource curse” phenomenon. The purpose of this research is to examine the co-integration of oil with macroeconomic indicators of Oman and of suggesting some policy reform measures to trim down overdependence on oil.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors culled out data from the annual reports published by the Central Bank of Oman from 1975 to 2016. Considering oil price and oil export volume as regressors, the long-term integration with other macroeconomic indicators was examined by using the bound test. Further, auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was also derived to check the impact of these cross-sectional relations.

Findings

Oil price is observed to have a strong long-term significant relation with all the macroeconomic variables used in this study. However, the volumes of oil exports do not appear to have significant influence on GDP and consumption but do naturally sway other variables. This indicates that less elasticity of consumption to the flow of macro income, because the consumption in the Omani economy is driven by perceived future income. Oil export revenue is not seems to be much impacting on the real sector as the deficits are funded by the government through compensatory spending. Oil prices and oil exports have exhibited a strong long-term integration with variables such as gross domestic savings (GDS), credit to government (C2G), credit to private (C2P), demand deposits (DD) and time deposits (TD). This hints that oil boom does constitute the key source of funding of the financial sector of Oman.

Research limitations/implications

This study offers a generalized submission to support the real sector of Oman to lead out of a resource curse through diversification. The study however does not provide industrial groupings to assess the impact of fluctuations in oil prices.

Originality/value

This research has confirmed the existence of “resource movement” effect and “spending effect” in Oman economy. The nation needs to take radical measures to come out of this phenomenon. For addressing this we have suggested the modified version of Shumpeterian model of creative destruction. In this model we call for demolishing the oil dependent structure with a diversification structure. The new move can bring more positive effect on real and financial sectors of the economy.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 June 2018

Canh Thi Nguyen and Lua Thi Trinh

The purpose of this paper is to assess both short and long-term influences of public investment on economic growth and test the hypothesis that whether public investment…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess both short and long-term influences of public investment on economic growth and test the hypothesis that whether public investment promotes or demotes private investment in Vietnam.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the approach of autoregressive distributed lag model and Vietnam’s macro data in the period of 1990-2016, to evaluate the short and long-term effects of public investment on economic growth and private investment. The model evaluates the impact of public investment on economic growth and private investment based on the neoclassical theories. The public investment which strongly affects economic growth is also reflected by aggregate supply and demand. Public investment directly impacts aggregate demand as a government expenditure and aggregate supply as a production function (capital factor).

Findings

The results from this research indicate that public investment in Vietnam in the past period does affect economic growth in the pattern of an inverted-U shape as of Barro (1990), with positive effects mostly occurring from the second year and negative effects of constraining long-term growth. Meanwhile, investment from the private sector, state-owned enterprises, and FDI has positive effects on short-term economic growth and state-owned capital stock has positive impacts on economic growth in both the short and long run. The estimated influence of public investment on private investment also shows a similar inverted-U shape in which public investment have crowding-in private investment short-term but crowding-out in the long run.

Practical implications

The empirical findings in this study can be used for conducting a more efficient policy in restructuring the state sector investment in Vietnam.

Originality/value

The main contributions in this study are: to evaluate the impacts of public investment on economic growth and private investment, the authors extracted public investment in infrastructure from aggregate investment of state sector (as previous studies used); the authors also uses state-owned capital stock variable including cumulative public investment and state-owned enterprises investment suggesting that this could control for the different orders of integration between the stock and flow variable and improve the experimental characteristics of the equation to a higher degree.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 25 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

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