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1 – 10 of 15Christophe Schinckus and Cinla Akdere
How a micro-founded discipline such as economics could deal with the increasing global economic reality? This question has been asked frequently since the last economic crisis…
Abstract
Purpose
How a micro-founded discipline such as economics could deal with the increasing global economic reality? This question has been asked frequently since the last economic crisis that appeared in 2008. In this challenging context, some commentators have turned their attention to a new area of knowledge coming from physics: econophysics which mainly focuses on a macro-analysis of economic systems. By showing that concepts used by econophysicists are consistent with an existing economic knowledge (developed by J.S. Mill), the purpose of this paper is to claim that an interdisciplinary perspective is possible between these two communities.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors propose a historical and conceptual analysis of the key concept of emergence to emphasize the potential bridge between econophysics and economics.
Findings
Six methodological arguments will be developed in order to show the existence of conceptual bridges as a necessary condition for the elaboration of a common language between economists and econophysics which would not be superfluous, in this challenging context, to clarify the growing complexity of economic phenomena.
Originality/value
Although the economics and econophysics study same the complex economic phenomena, very few collaborations exist between them. This paper paves a conceptual/methodological path for more collaboration between the two fields.
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The term “agent-based modelling” (ABM) is a buzzword which is widely used in the scientific literature even though it refers to a variety of methodologies implemented in different…
Abstract
Purpose
The term “agent-based modelling” (ABM) is a buzzword which is widely used in the scientific literature even though it refers to a variety of methodologies implemented in different disciplinary contexts. The numerous works dealing with ABM require a clarification to better understand the lines of thinking paved by this approach in economics. All modelling tasks are a means and a source of knowledge, and this epistemic function can vary depending on the methodology. this paper is to present four major ways (deductive, abductive, metaphorical and phenomenological) of implementing an agent-based framework to describe economic systems. ABM generates numerous debates in economics and opens the room for epistemological questions about the micro-foundations of macroeconomics; before dealing with this issue, the purpose of this paper is to identify the kind of ABM the author can find in economics.
Design/methodology/approach
The profusion of works dealing with ABM requires a clarification to understand better the lines of thinking paved by this approach in economics. This paper offers a conceptual classification outlining the major trends of ABM in economics.
Findings
There are four categories of ABM in economics.
Originality/value
This paper suggests a methodological categorization of ABM works in economics.
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Kingstone Nyakurukwa and Yudhvir Seetharam
The authors’ goal is to provide an overview and historical context for the various alternatives to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) that have emerged over time. The authors…
Abstract
Purpose
The authors’ goal is to provide an overview and historical context for the various alternatives to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) that have emerged over time. The authors found eight current alternatives that have emerged to address the EMH's flaws. Each of the proposed alternatives improves some of the assumptions made by the EMH, such as investor homogeneity, the immediate incorporation of information into asset values and the inadequacy of rationality to explain asset prices.
Design/methodology/approach
To come up with the list of studies relevant to this review article, the authors used three databases, namely Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar. The first two were mostly used to get peer-reviewed articles while Google Scholar was used to extract articles that are still work in progress. The following words were used as the search queries; “efficient market hypothesis” and “alternatives to the efficient market hypothesis”.
Findings
The alternatives to the EMH presented in this article demonstrate that market efficiency is a dynamic concept that can be best understood with a multidisciplinary approach. To better comprehend how financial markets work, it is crucial to draw on concepts, theories and ideas from a variety of disciplines, including physics, economics, anthropology, sociology and others.
Originality/value
The authors comprehensively summarise the current state of the behavioural finance literature on alternatives to the EMH.
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Kingstone Nyakurukwa and Yudhvir Seetharam
The authors examine how financial analysts respond to online investor sentiment when updating recommendations for specific stocks in South Africa. The aim is to establish whether…
Abstract
Purpose
The authors examine how financial analysts respond to online investor sentiment when updating recommendations for specific stocks in South Africa. The aim is to establish whether online sentiment contains significant information that can influence analyst recommendations. The authors follow up the above by examining when online investor sentiment is most associated with analyst recommendation changes.
Design/methodology/approach
For online investor sentiment proxies, the authors make use of the social media sentiment and news media sentiment scores provided by Bloomberg Inc. The sample size includes all companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Share Index. The study uses traditional ordinary least squares to examine the relation at the mean and quantile regression to identify the scope of the relationship across the distribution of the dependent variable.
Findings
The authors find evidence that pre-event news sentiment significantly influences analyst recommendation changes while no significant relationship is found with the Twitter sentiment. Further analysis shows that news sentiment is more influential when the recommendation changes are moderate (in the middle of the conditional distribution of the recommendation changes).
Originality/value
The study is the one of the first to examine the association between online sentiment and analyst recommendation changes in an emerging market using high frequency data. The authors also make a direct comparison between social media sentiment and news media sentiment, some of the most used contemporary investor sentiment proxies.
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Nguyen Phuc Canh, Christophe Schinckus, Thanh Dinh Su and Felicia Hui Ling Chong
This paper aims to offer an empirical study of the impact of institutional quality on the banking system risk and credit risk.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to offer an empirical study of the impact of institutional quality on the banking system risk and credit risk.
Design/methodology/approach
Applying cross-sectional dependent tests and stationary tests to check the property of our sample, the panel corrected standard errors model is recruited as the main estimator, while feasible generalized least squares, pool ordinary least squares (OLS), robust pool OLS and other estimators are used as a robustness check for an unbalanced panel data for 56 economies divided into three subsamples between 2002 and 2015.
Findings
The empirical results show several significant contributions. First, an improvement in institutional quality is an important factor to reduce the banking system risk. This effect of the institutions is less important in well-capitalized, highly profitable and in high-economic growth countries. This effect is also stronger in highly liquid banking systems. Notably, a better institutional quality helps to reduce the banking system risk in the highly concentrated banking system. Second, institutional quality has a significant negative relationship with the banking credit risk, especially in highly concentrated banking systems and in high-growth countries. This influence is weaker in highly liquid and well-capitalized banking systems. Finally, better institutions reduce the positive effect of trade openness, but it induces a higher credit risk for the banking system from the trade openness. Notably, a better institutional quality enhances the negative effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow on both banking system risk and credit risk. These findings are documented for a global sample and three subsamples: low and lower-middle-income economies, upper-middle-income economies and high-income economies.
Originality/value
This study provides some recommendations, for policymakers, on the roles of institutions in the banking system and financial stability.
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The purpose of this paper is to analyse five biases in the valuation of financial investments using a mental time travel framework involving thought investments – with no…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyse five biases in the valuation of financial investments using a mental time travel framework involving thought investments – with no objective time passing.
Design/methodology/approach
An investment’s initial value, together with any periodic funding cash-flows, are mentally projected forward (at an expected rate of return) to give the value at the investment horizon; and this projected value is mentally discounted back to the present. If there is a difference between the initial and present values, then this can imply a bias in valuation.
Findings
The study identifies (and gives examples of) five real-world valuation biases: biased funding cash-flow estimates (e.g., mega infrastructure projects); biased rate of return projections (e.g., market crises, tech stock carve-outs); biased discount rate estimates (e.g., dual-listed shares, dual-class shares, short-termism, time-risk misperception, and long-termism); time-duration misestimation or perception bias when projecting (e.g., time-contracted projections which lead to short-termism); and time-duration misestimation or perception bias when discounting (e.g., time-extended discounting which also leads to short-termism). More than one bias can be operating at the same time and we give an example of low levels of retirement savings being the result of the biased discounting of biased projections. Finally, we consider the effects of the different biases of different agents operating simultaneously.
Originality/value
The paper examines key systematic misestimation and psychological biases underlying financial investment valuation pricing anomalies.
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Canh Phuc Nguyen, Christophe Schinckus and Thanh Dinh Su
This study aims to investigate the influences of global uncertainty indicators volatility on the domestic socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability in a sample of 54…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the influences of global uncertainty indicators volatility on the domestic socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability in a sample of 54 developing countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The two-step system generalized method of moments estimator is recruited to deal with autoregression and endogeneity matter in our dynamic panel data. Seven different global uncertainty indicators (US trade uncertainty; world trade uncertainty; economic policy uncertainty; world commodities and oil prices; the geopolitical risk index and the world uncertainty index) have been mobilized and compared for their empirical impact on the economic (growth and GDP), social (the misery index and income inequality) and environmental (CO2 emissions) vulnerabilities of nations.
Findings
Our empirical estimations suggest that the socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability cannot be solved through the same pattern: all decrease of a particular aspect will necessarily have a cost and an opposite influence on at least one of the other aspects of the nations' vulnerability.
Originality/value
The originality of this article is to combine these three dimensions of vulnerability in the same investigation. To our knowledge, our research is one of the few providing a joint analysis of the influence of global uncertainty on the economic and socioenvironmental countries' vulnerabilities – given the fact social, economic and environmental aspects are at the heart of the UN sustainable goals, our study can be seen as an investigation of the nations' capabilities to work proactively on meaningful sustainable goals in an increasingly uncertain world.
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Juan Gabriel Brida, Emiliano Alvarez, Gaston Cayssials and Matias Mednik
Our paper studies a central issue with a long history in economics: the relationship between population and economic growth. We analyze the joint dynamics of economic and…
Abstract
Purpose
Our paper studies a central issue with a long history in economics: the relationship between population and economic growth. We analyze the joint dynamics of economic and demographic growth in 111 countries during the period 1960–2019.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the concept of economic regime, the paper introduces the notion of distance between the dynamical paths of different countries. Then, a minimal spanning tree (MST) and a hierarchical tree (HT) are constructed to detect groups of countries sharing similar dynamic performance.
Findings
The methodology confirms the existence of three country clubs, each of which exhibits a different dynamic behavior pattern. The analysis also shows that the clusters clearly differ with respect to the evolution of other fundamental variables not previously considered [gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, human capital and life expectancy, among others].
Practical implications
Our results indirectly suggest the existence of dynamic interdependence in the trajectories of economic growth and population change between countries. It also provides evidence against single-model approaches to explain the interdependence between demographic change and economic growth.
Originality/value
We introduce a methodology that allows for a model-free topological and hierarchical description of the interplay between economic growth and population.
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Jaewon Choi and Jieun Lee
The authors estimate systemic risk in the Korean economy using the econometric measures of commonality and connectedness applied to stock returns. To assess potential systemic…
Abstract
The authors estimate systemic risk in the Korean economy using the econometric measures of commonality and connectedness applied to stock returns. To assess potential systemic risk concerns arising from the high concentration of the economy in large business groups and a few export-oriented sectors, the authors perform three levels of estimation using individual stocks, business groups, and industry returns. The results show that the measures perform well over the study’s sample period by indicating heightened levels of commonality and interconnectedness during crisis periods. In out-of-sample tests, the measures can predict future losses in the stock market during the crises. The authors also provide the recent readings of their measures at the market, chaebol, and industry levels. Although the measures indicate systemic risk is not a major concern in Korea, as they tend to be at the lowest level since 1998, there is an increasing trend in commonality and connectedness since 2017. Samsung and SK exhibit increasing degrees of commonality and connectedness, perhaps because of their heavy dependence on a few major member firms. Commonality in the finance industry has not subsided since the financial crisis, suggesting that systemic risk is still a concern in the banking sector.
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Ahmed Bounfour, Thomas Housel, Trent Silkey and Alberto Nonnis
The purpose of the current study is to illustrate the importance of strategic agility (SA), the capacity to respond agilely to a rapidly changing environment, for digitally…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the current study is to illustrate the importance of strategic agility (SA), the capacity to respond agilely to a rapidly changing environment, for digitally transforming firms during the COVID-19 crisis. A secondary purpose of the study is to conceptually frame SA as a function of the creative to realized intangible capital (IC) ratio.
Design/methodology/approach
To inferentially corroborate the hypothesis, this study exploits the results of a recent firm-level survey, conducted under the H2020 project GlobalInto (2021). Via OLS and ordered logistic regressions, the relationship among SA, economic performance and IC was tested.
Findings
The exploratory findings implied that the more strategically agile companies were those that responded more effectively to the pandemic crisis, but only if they were ahead in terms of digital transformation. Moreover, the results implied that firms that were able to efficiently convert their creative IC into realized IC were the most strategically agile.
Originality/value
This study developed a new conceptual framework for digitally transforming firms that included the role of SA and the IC conversion ratio in the context of extreme threats to the survival of firms. Some preliminary practical recommendations were offered to management about how to measure the IC conversion ratio as well as how to stimulate and reward greater creativity among employees, filling a notable gap in the SA literature that provides less than precise guidance about how this concept can be measured.
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