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Article
Publication date: 6 June 2018

Christophe Schinckus and Cinla Akdere

How a micro-founded discipline such as economics could deal with the increasing global economic reality? This question has been asked frequently since the last economic…

Abstract

Purpose

How a micro-founded discipline such as economics could deal with the increasing global economic reality? This question has been asked frequently since the last economic crisis that appeared in 2008. In this challenging context, some commentators have turned their attention to a new area of knowledge coming from physics: econophysics which mainly focuses on a macro-analysis of economic systems. By showing that concepts used by econophysicists are consistent with an existing economic knowledge (developed by J.S. Mill), the purpose of this paper is to claim that an interdisciplinary perspective is possible between these two communities.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors propose a historical and conceptual analysis of the key concept of emergence to emphasize the potential bridge between econophysics and economics.

Findings

Six methodological arguments will be developed in order to show the existence of conceptual bridges as a necessary condition for the elaboration of a common language between economists and econophysics which would not be superfluous, in this challenging context, to clarify the growing complexity of economic phenomena.

Originality/value

Although the economics and econophysics study same the complex economic phenomena, very few collaborations exist between them. This paper paves a conceptual/methodological path for more collaboration between the two fields.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 25 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 26 November 2020

Quazi Mohammed Habibus Sakalayen, Okan Duru and Enna Hirata

Bulk shipping mostly facilitates the smooth flow of raw materials around the globe. Regardless, forecasting a bulk shipbuilding orderbook is a seldom researched domain in…

Abstract

Purpose

Bulk shipping mostly facilitates the smooth flow of raw materials around the globe. Regardless, forecasting a bulk shipbuilding orderbook is a seldom researched domain in the academic arena. This study aims to pioneer an econophysics approach coupled with an autoregressive data analysis technique for bulk shipbuilding order forecasting.

Design/methodology/approach

By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The model has been evaluated through autoregressive integrated moving average analysis, and the outcome indicates a relatively stable good fit.

Findings

The outcomes of the econophysics model indicate a relatively stable good fit. Although relevant maritime data and its quality need to be improved, the flexibility in refining the predictive variables ensure the robustness of this econophysics-based forecasting model.

Originality/value

By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The research result helps shipping investors make decision in a capital-intensive and uncertainty-prone environment.

Details

Maritime Business Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2397-3757

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Article
Publication date: 14 May 2018

Wolfgang Baer, Ahmed Bounfour and Thomas J. Housel

Mobile phones are radically transforming micro-finance in Sub-Saharan Africa, and Kenya, in particular. The introduction of the micro-financial transaction mobile phone…

Abstract

Purpose

Mobile phones are radically transforming micro-finance in Sub-Saharan Africa, and Kenya, in particular. The introduction of the micro-financial transaction mobile phone application, “MPesa,” created a means to facilitate micro-transactions without the need for an intermediary, such as a banking system. The purpose of this paper is to posit an econophysics model to predict the value of Mpesa for Kenyan and South African consumers. The econophysics framework posits several fitness matrices and a distance measure that can account for the concepts of mass, distance, momentum, velocity, action, and force. The authors begin with a table of the match between the physics concepts and the economic concepts followed by the vector model that utilizes these concepts for the MPesa application case. In this paper, the authors will argue that MPesa succeeded in Sub-Saharan African countries, such as Kenya, because the fit between what this group of customers needed and the solutions Safaricom’s MPesa offered was a better fit with a smaller distance to adoption than in the South African case.

Design/methodology/approach

The research develops an econophysics approach to the assessment of micro-finance development in Sub-Saharan countries.

Findings

The research shows clearly the reasons of the success of MPesa in Kenya in comparison of its relative failure in South Africa: the distance between customers’ expectations and the system supply.

Research limitations/implications

The research is limited to two case studies and needs to be extended to other contexts, in order to demonstrate its robustness, especially with regard to the intangible dimension, e.g., the distance between a system potential and what it really offers.

Practical implications

The research shows the importance of system’s characteristics in its success.

Social implications

The social implications are very high, especially in this case, where micro-finance is a high stake for developing societies.

Originality/value

This is one of the first works to develop an econophysics approach for the evaluation of the key characteristics of a system.

Details

Journal of Intellectual Capital, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1469-1930

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Book part
Publication date: 29 April 2013

Julian Wells

Popular understandings of the financial crisis tend to focus on the rents extracted by elite personnel in the financial sector. Professional discussions, however, have…

Abstract

Popular understandings of the financial crisis tend to focus on the rents extracted by elite personnel in the financial sector. Professional discussions, however, have addressed the faulty assumptions underlying theory and practice – in particular, the assumption that returns to financial assets follow the Gaussian distribution, in the face of much empirical evidence that these have power law distributions with far higher kurtosis. It turns out that the power law tails of returns to financial assets are also a feature of the distribution of company rates of profit, a discovery that stems from proposals to ‘dissolve’ the traditional transformation problem by abandoning the condition of a uniform rate of profit and instead considering its distribution.Marx himself was aware of the importance of considering the distributional properties of economic variables, based on his reading of Quetelet. In fact, heavy-tailed distributions characterise a wide range of variables in capitalist economies, the best-known probably being the Paretian tail component in distributions of income and wealth. Nor is this simply an empirical fact – such distributions emerge readily from a range of agent-based simulations.Capitalist economies are, in a particular technical sense, complex self-organising systems perpetually on the brink of crisis. This modern understanding is prefigured in Marx’s discussion of how the compulsive character of social relations emerges from the atomistic exercise of human free will in commercial society. The developing literature of probabilistic Marxism successfully applies these insights to the wider fields of econophysics and complexity, demonstrating the continuing relevance of Marx’s thought.

Details

Contradictions: Finance, Greed, and Labor Unequally Paid
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78190-671-2

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Content available
Article
Publication date: 26 June 2019

Christophe Schinckus

The term “agent-based modelling” (ABM) is a buzzword which is widely used in the scientific literature even though it refers to a variety of methodologies implemented in…

Abstract

Purpose

The term “agent-based modelling” (ABM) is a buzzword which is widely used in the scientific literature even though it refers to a variety of methodologies implemented in different disciplinary contexts. The numerous works dealing with ABM require a clarification to better understand the lines of thinking paved by this approach in economics. All modelling tasks are a means and a source of knowledge, and this epistemic function can vary depending on the methodology. this paper is to present four major ways (deductive, abductive, metaphorical and phenomenological) of implementing an agent-based framework to describe economic systems. ABM generates numerous debates in economics and opens the room for epistemological questions about the micro-foundations of macroeconomics; before dealing with this issue, the purpose of this paper is to identify the kind of ABM the author can find in economics.

Design/methodology/approach

The profusion of works dealing with ABM requires a clarification to understand better the lines of thinking paved by this approach in economics. This paper offers a conceptual classification outlining the major trends of ABM in economics.

Findings

There are four categories of ABM in economics.

Originality/value

This paper suggests a methodological categorization of ABM works in economics.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 26 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

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Article
Publication date: 18 May 2015

Yong Luo, Jie Xiong, Lie Gang Dong and Yong Tang

– The purpose of this paper is to investigate the statistical correlation properties of the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) interbank lending market.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the statistical correlation properties of the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) interbank lending market.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors apply methods of correlation analysis, random matrix theory (RMT) and minimum spanning tree (MST) to investigate the correlation properties of Chinese interbank lending market and analyze how the SHIBOR panel banks behave in different market periods.

Findings

First, the largest eigenvalue λ 1 is the index to describe the market mode of the whole market when all banks behavior collectively and λ 1/N is a good estimator of the average correlation <C> of the correlation matrix. Second, notably, the authors find the “market mode” is weakened in two crises periods of 2008 stock market crash and 2009 Global Financial Crisis. This is significantly different from other market where the “market mode” is normally strengthened in crises periods. Third, the authors subtract the contribution of λ 1, the second and third eigenvalue, λ 2 and λ 3, will fall outside of the predicted interval. And both λ 2 and λ 3 are getting times larger in the crises periods than in “Non-Crisis” period. Fourth, and in the MST analysis, the authors find again that the average distances of the MST are the times larger in crises periods than in “Non-Crisis” period and the second largest eigenvalue is a good estimator of the average distance of the MST.

Originality/value

According to the best knowledge, this paper is the first work on the study of the statistical properties of an interbank lending market using quotation level data of panel banks, which allows us to analyze the properties of the interest rate formation and how all panel banks behavior in different periods. This work is also the first study on the SHIBOR market using econophysics methods of correlation analysis, RMT and MST.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

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Article
Publication date: 27 June 2008

Mary Han and Bill McKelvey

Technology‐based new ventures (TNVs) – which rely on entrepreneurial activities based on science and technology applications in newly created organizations to be…

Abstract

Purpose

Technology‐based new ventures (TNVs) – which rely on entrepreneurial activities based on science and technology applications in newly created organizations to be successful – are important to current economic growth and innovation. Past research has looked at the importance of networks and social capital to TNV performance. Yet these studies rarely provide theoretical predictions of the attributes of network ties. This paper aims to bring TNV theory up to date with respect to twenty‐first century adaptation and complexity conditions.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper draws on new developments in complexity science (specifically scalability and scale‐free theories) and long‐standing first principles of efficacious adaptation to develop TNV‐relevant theory offering an alternative perspective on the impact of network ties on the performance of TNV.

Findings

It is argued that TNVs can achieve superior performance by developing and building moderate numbers of short‐term (and thereby weak) network ties. The theorizing calls for a new research agenda pertaining to TNVs, which are delineated. The paper also develops four propositions as part of setting forth an agenda for future research.

Originality/value

The paper updates the entrepreneurship and social network literatures by reshaping them with respect to the nonlinear order‐creation dynamics of complexity theory and scale‐free dynamics of econophysics. It focuses on the aspects of network theory that are especially likely to set in motion the complex adaptive systems dynamics essential to TNV performance. Therefore, the conceptual framework contributes to TNVs as a guide to achieving higher performance, effectiveness, and longevity in a rapidly changing world.

Details

International Journal of Accounting & Information Management, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1834-7649

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Article
Publication date: 12 September 2016

Aasif Shah, Malabika Deo and Wayne King

The purpose of this paper is to derive crucial insights from multi-scale analysis to detect equity return co-movements between Korean and emerging Asian markets.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to derive crucial insights from multi-scale analysis to detect equity return co-movements between Korean and emerging Asian markets.

Design/methodology/approach

Wavelet correlation, wavelet coherence and wavelet clustering measures are used to uncover Korean equity market interactions which are hard to see using any other modern econometric method and which would otherwise had remained hidden.

Findings

The authors observed that Korean equity market is strongly integrated with Asian equity markets at lower frequency scales and has a relatively weak correlation at higher frequencies. Further this correlation eventually grows strong in the interim of crises period at lower frequency scales. The authors, however, do not found any significant deviation in dendrograms generated in data clustering process from wavelet scale 2 to 6 which are associated with four and 64 weeks period, respectively. Overall the findings are relevant and have strong policy and practical implications.

Originality/value

The unique contribution of this paper is that it introduces wavelet clustering analysis to produce a nested hierarchy of similar markets at each frequency level for the first time in finance literature

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 43 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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Article
Publication date: 18 January 2016

Paweł Fiedor and Artur Hołda

– This paper aims to present a framework enriching currency risk analyses based on information theory.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to present a framework enriching currency risk analyses based on information theory.

Design/methodology/approach

Information-theoretic measures of predictability (entropy rate) and co-dependence (mutual information) are used to enhance existing methods of analysing and measuring currency risk.

Findings

The currency exchange rates have varying degrees of predictability, which should be accounted for in currency risk analyses. In case of baskets of currencies, a network approach rooted in portfolio theory may be useful.

Research limitations/implications

The currency exchange rate time series must be discretised for the information-theoretic analysis (although the results are robust). An agent-based simulation may be a necessary further study to show what the impact of accounting for predictability in managing currency risk is.

Practical implications

Practical analyses measuring currency risk should take predictability of currency rate changes into account wherever the currency exposure is actively managed.

Originality/value

The paper introduces predictability into measuring currency risk, which has previously been ignored, despite the nature of the risk being inherently tied to uncertainty of the currency rate changes. The paper also introduces a portfolio theory-based approach to quantifying currency risk, which accounts for non-linear co-dependence in the currency markets.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

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Book part
Publication date: 30 November 2016

Robert L. Axtell

Certain elements of Hayek’s work are prominent precursors to the modern field of complex adaptive systems, including his ideas on spontaneous order, his focus on market…

Abstract

Certain elements of Hayek’s work are prominent precursors to the modern field of complex adaptive systems, including his ideas on spontaneous order, his focus on market processes, his contrast between designing and gardening, and his own framing of complex systems. Conceptually, he was well ahead of his time, prescient in his formulation of novel ways to think about economies and societies. Technically, the fact that he did not mathematically formalize most of the notions he developed makes his insights hard to incorporate unambiguously into models. However, because so much of his work is divorced from the simplistic models proffered by early mathematical economics, it stands as fertile ground for complex systems researchers today. I suggest that Austrian economists can create a progressive research program by building models of these Hayekian ideas, and thereby gain traction within the economics profession. Instead of mathematical models the suite of techniques and tools known as agent-based computing seems particularly well-suited to addressing traditional Austrian topics like money, business cycles, coordination, market processes, and so on, while staying faithful to the methodological individualism and bottom-up perspective that underpin the entire school of thought.

Details

Revisiting Hayek’s Political Economy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-988-6

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