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The purpose of this paper is to portray the valuation of financial investments as mental time travel.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to portray the valuation of financial investments as mental time travel.
Design/methodology/approach
In a series of thought investments, $1 invested in an investment fund is mentally projected forward in time and then discounted back to the present – with no objective time passing. The thought investments feature symmetric valuation (in which discount rates exactly match projection rates) and asymmetric valuation (in which discount rates and projection rates happen to differ). They show how asymmetric valuation can result in differences between the current personal value and market value of an investment and, by way of real-world illustration, between a closed-end investment fund's net asset value and its market value. The authors explore possible reasons for asymmetric valuation.
Findings
Thought investments illustrating mental time travel can be used to help understand both financial investment valuation generally and, more specifically, established explanations of the closed-end investment fund puzzle. The authors show how different expectations, different perceptions of time and risk and different risk and time preferences might help determine value.
Originality/value
There are vast literatures on prospection, discounting and future-orientated or intertemporal decision-making. The authors’ innovation is to illustrate how these mental activities might combine to facilitate financial investment valuation. In particular, the authors show that a low personal discount rate could be a consequence of a shortened perception of future time and vice versa.
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Noel Scott, Brent Moyle, Ana Cláudia Campos, Liubov Skavronskaya and Biqiang Liu
Neale R. Chumbler, John Fortney, Marisue Cody and Cornelia Beck
The purpose of the present study is to investigate whether family caregivers with a stronger sense of coherence (SOC) who are caring for community dwelling older adults with…
Abstract
The purpose of the present study is to investigate whether family caregivers with a stronger sense of coherence (SOC) who are caring for community dwelling older adults with cognitive impairment are less likely to use mental health services. An adaptation of the Anderson behavioral model of access to health care was employed as a conceptual framework. Data were collected for 304 impaired older adult/family caregiver dyads. Caregiver mental health service use and sense of coherence were measures as well as predisposing factors (age, gender, race, education, type of familial relationship, family size, and co-residence with impaired family member), enabling factors (self-reported awareness of services, travel times to mental health services, social support, and insurance), and need factors (chronic health conditions and distress). The impaired elder’s age, level of physical impairment, and level of memory impairment were also examined. Logistic regression results indicated that caregivers who have a stronger SOC were less likely to use mental health services (OR=0.91, p=0.006). Other significant independent predictors of mental health service use were social support (OR=0.34, p=0.032) and caregivers aiding family members with higher levels of physical impairment (OR=1.14, p=0.033). The results of this study support clinicians and planners developing mental health services that use SOC to mitigate the detrimental effects of caregiving. Future research is needed to target effective measures to positively manipulate this variable.
The purpose of this paper is to analyse five biases in the valuation of financial investments using a mental time travel framework involving thought investments – with no…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyse five biases in the valuation of financial investments using a mental time travel framework involving thought investments – with no objective time passing.
Design/methodology/approach
An investment’s initial value, together with any periodic funding cash-flows, are mentally projected forward (at an expected rate of return) to give the value at the investment horizon; and this projected value is mentally discounted back to the present. If there is a difference between the initial and present values, then this can imply a bias in valuation.
Findings
The study identifies (and gives examples of) five real-world valuation biases: biased funding cash-flow estimates (e.g., mega infrastructure projects); biased rate of return projections (e.g., market crises, tech stock carve-outs); biased discount rate estimates (e.g., dual-listed shares, dual-class shares, short-termism, time-risk misperception, and long-termism); time-duration misestimation or perception bias when projecting (e.g., time-contracted projections which lead to short-termism); and time-duration misestimation or perception bias when discounting (e.g., time-extended discounting which also leads to short-termism). More than one bias can be operating at the same time and we give an example of low levels of retirement savings being the result of the biased discounting of biased projections. Finally, we consider the effects of the different biases of different agents operating simultaneously.
Originality/value
The paper examines key systematic misestimation and psychological biases underlying financial investment valuation pricing anomalies.
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Dung Le and Noel Scott
When making decisions about their future dream holidays, tourists often spend significant time thinking about future scenarios. This is an example of ‘mental time travel’, a…
Abstract
When making decisions about their future dream holidays, tourists often spend significant time thinking about future scenarios. This is an example of ‘mental time travel’, a process called prospection. The concept of prospection refers to human ability of ‘pre-experience’ the future and hence how that future ‘feels’, which is why it is sometimes called affective forecasting. There is a large volume of psychological research on prospection, but in applied fields, the use of various terms makes the current literature complex, disconnected and hard to navigate. This chapter provides an introduction to prospection as an underlying mechanism explaining some of the effects of experiential marketing. It discusses tourism prospection-related terms, errors of prospection and mental biases and ways to better manage tourist experiences.
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Manuel Sotelo-Duarte and Rajagopal
This paper aims to understand how mental time traveling impacts consumption by triggering nostalgia. The effects of nostalgic behavior are explored further in regards of its…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to understand how mental time traveling impacts consumption by triggering nostalgia. The effects of nostalgic behavior are explored further in regards of its impact on dears and nears.
Design/methodology/approach
This study is based on qualitative information from in-depth interviews. In total, 30 parents with children form Chihuahua, Mexico, answer to a semi-structured interview. Participants presented nostalgic orientation.
Findings
Nostalgic individual move back and forward in time through memory retrieval. Retrieval's quality is related to social impact during memory creation and retrieval process. Nostalgia is not only a cognitive process, but it manifests on behaviors that affects people around the nostalgic individuals. In the context of parent–child relationship, sharing nostalgia is useful for creating new bond across participants.
Research limitations/implications
Contributions toward theory of memory, nostalgia and social learning were made. Result suggests social implications on nostalgic behavior because social interaction is important for quality of memory retrieval. Behavioral implications are discussed in the context of parent–child relationship and the use of nostalgia to develop new and stronger bonds. Companies should develop strategies that privilege social moments around brands to increase memory retrieval quality and nostalgia.
Practical implications
Companies should develop strategies that create social moments around brands to increase memory retrieval quality and nostalgia. Additionally, using social moments on communications could trigger nostalgia and detonates consumption behavior.
Originality/value
The research builds on previous studies about nostalgia. However, this research focusses on mental time travel along nostalgic memories that individuals perform every day to take decisions that affects them and their loved ones. The value of nostalgia on building relationships through consumption is analyzed. The results were obtained from the Mexican context that has not been explored before on nostalgia research.
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Noel Scott, Brent Moyle, Jianyu Ma, Ana Cláudia Campos, Lynn I-Ling Chen, Dung Le, Liubov Skavronskaya, Shanshi Li, Rui Zhang, Shan Jiang, Lihua Gao and Arghavan Hadinejad
Effective experience design requires not only a knowledge of tourist goals, but an understanding of how these can be met in a particular tourism site. Research on experiences and…
Abstract
Effective experience design requires not only a knowledge of tourist goals, but an understanding of how these can be met in a particular tourism site. Research on experiences and experience design is supported by cognitive psychology concepts such as perception, attention, appraisal, emotion, consciousness, feelings and memory. However, these concepts are often used in a combination with others from sociology, social or environmental psychology in a manner that leads to confusion rather than clarity, without apparent understanding of the theoretical mechanisms by which these concepts are related. This chapter develops a series of propositions for potential application to tourism experience design. Future research should examine the efficacy of these propositions from cognitive psychology for tourism experience design.
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Jan Erik Karlsen, Erik F. Øverland and Hanne Karlsen
This article aims to contribute to futures theory building by assessing the inherent ontological and epistemological presumptions in foresight studies. Such premises, which are…
Abstract
Purpose
This article aims to contribute to futures theory building by assessing the inherent ontological and epistemological presumptions in foresight studies. Such premises, which are usually embedded in foresight studies, are contrasted with sociological imagination and contemporary social science discourse.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper is a conceptual analysis of theoretical assumptions embedded in foresight studies.
Findings
Sociological lenses, including concepts like anticipation, latency, time, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, change and plurality of images, offer clarity in terms of both futures studies and foresights.
Research limitations/implications
Explicating presumptions embedded in foresight methods helps recognition of how such methods shape the concepts of future and time. This is vital for assessment of the analytical products of foresights studies.
Originality/value
This research contributes to the ambition of linking the theoretical world of futures research and the practical world of foresights closer together by explicating key concepts and implicit assumptions in both fields.
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The purpose of this study is to conceptually integrate business to consumer (B2C) into business to business (B2B), with a holistic consumer-centric, technology-reinforced…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to conceptually integrate business to consumer (B2C) into business to business (B2B), with a holistic consumer-centric, technology-reinforced, long-term vision for tourism industries and companies to survive and succeed in the era of new technologies 4.0. The research suggests that the tourism-marketing-new technologies decision-making involves customers as the center of the design and decision process.
Design/methodology/approach
The research design includes a qualitative study with 94 in-depth interviews, a literature analysis and a conceptual proposition. The qualitative study follows the tourism consumer desire data analysis, from categorization to integration. The literature analysis applies a systematic literature review approach based on the 29 most up-to-date new-tech papers from peer-reviewed journals. The analysis compares qualitative research findings and literature analysis results and matches the new technology applications with consumer desire understanding. The conceptual framework of tourism marketing/advertising is proposed based on qualitative research and literature analysis.
Findings
The qualitative research deciphers that consumers, based on their imagination and memorization, desire therapy and sceneries and connect such desires to the empathetic and resonating advertising messages. The literature analysis synthesizes the new tech applications in tourism and matches the qualitative research findings with the deciphered desires in tourism. The conceptual model proposes that B2C should be integrated into B2B to provide value for both consumers and businesses and opens avenues of research on this topic.
Research limitations/implications
This research has made the following theoretical contributions: it offers an in-depth understanding of consumer desire, often hidden or subconscious, in the field of tourism. Consumer desires regarding tourism are mostly subconscious and exist long before consumers are exposed to advertising messages. These desires reflect the search for therapy and sceneries and become “embodied” – they exist on multisensorial levels and become part of the body and life and will lead consumers into positive perceptions when marketing communications/advertisements resonate with them. In the latter case, they will subjectively judge advertising as “good,” regardless of the advertising design quality. The research also connects consumer research with a new technologies research review and proposes a conceptual framework to integrate business to consumer (B2C) with business to business (B2B). As such, the research makes theoretical contributions to the integration or the “boundary blurring” between B2C and B2B research and practical suggestions that involved industries and consumers may all benefit from such integration. Conceptually, there is a lack of discussions of the pitfalls of new technologies, a dearth of empirical verification of the applications of new technologies in the proposed fields and a shortage of discussions about ethical issues. Qualitative methods, offering an efficient tool for understanding consumer desires in the tourism industry, have their own limits, as discussed in previous research. The sample is limited to the state of New York population and may be influenced by geographic, demographic and psychological characteristics related to the region.
Practical implications
This research provides advertising practitioners, new technology innovators and tourism industries with a framework to face the combined challenges of understanding hidden consumer desires and applying adequate technologies that resonate with consumer desires to tackle relevant issues. The conceptual proposition of this research fills the gap between qualitative consumer research without concrete practical resolution and new technologies applications without in-depth consumer understanding. Through the conceptual framework, the author provides insights into how industries may benefit from consumer understanding. The business relationships among the industries of marketing, tourism and new technologies should be centered around consumers. Thus, B2C and B2B should be naturally integrated into business practices.
Social implications
Social implications of this research include three major points: first, the understanding of consumer desire for therapeutic power in tourism, which invites more attention to tourism as part of social well-being design instead of a purely for-profit business. Second, a profound comprehension of what consumers need and desire, without which the applications of new technologies may cause severe societal problems. Third, a way to tailor to consumers’ individuality and desires for advertising/marketing that may be considered abusive, stressful and socially destructive if applied in a nonpersonal manner.
Originality/value
Conceptually, this research adds consumer desire, an originally B2C concept, to the B2B context regarding the new technology applications in tourism marketing/advertising. It contributes to the B2B literature by proposing a strong consumer-centric approach, especially the consumer desire understanding, that is not yet investigated in the B2B literature; and a combination of empirical study and literature analysis and the matching of the two for better practice of advertising/marketing, tourism and new technologies applications.
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Through biographies we read the fragments of people’s lives that have been structured into a narrative discourse, the written text the mediating force that turns ’narrative into…
Abstract
Through biographies we read the fragments of people’s lives that have been structured into a narrative discourse, the written text the mediating force that turns ’narrative into logic’ (Ricoeur, 1984, p. 30) This article reflects upon the fragmented nature of memories through both the stories of the author and the written works from a selection of influential texts encountered by the author. The photographs in this article frame a series of disjointed images that are connected to me through narrated stories. How much of these stories do I truly remember and how much do I embellish? The storytellers, my grandparents, are dead yet the stories remain. They are the connections I have with my family history and they are the historical conceptions I frame my personal discourse within (Flood, 2003). When trying to make sense of our lives it is to the fragments of memory we turn to construct our stories. The author, through the telling of her stories and the recounting of significant events surrounding her family’s histories as told by her grandmother, provides an exemplar of how such fragments can add to the understanding of the self. She reveals that by encountering such fragments within a life story, we can begin to make sense of our lives.
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