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Article
Publication date: 28 November 2023

Kyoung Tae Kim, Jing Jian Xiao and Nilton Porto

Financial inclusion can be proxied by banking status. The purpose of this study is to investigate the potential effects of financial capability on the financial fragility of US…

Abstract

Purpose

Financial inclusion can be proxied by banking status. The purpose of this study is to investigate the potential effects of financial capability on the financial fragility of US adults with various banking statuses during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

This study utilized the 2021 National Financial Capability Study (NFCS) dataset to investigate the relationship between financial capability and financial fragility among consumers with different banking statuses. The analysis controlled for employment shocks, health shocks and other consumer characteristics. Banking statuses included fully banked, under-banked (utilizing both banking and alternative financial services) and unbanked individuals. Logistic regression analyses were conducted on both the entire sample and subsamples based on banking statuses.

Findings

The results showed that financial capability was negatively associated with financial fragility. The magnitude of the potential negative effect of financial capability was the greatest among the fully banked group, followed by the underbanked and unbanked groups. Respondents who were underbanked or unbanked were more likely to experience financial fragility than those who were fully banked. Additionally, respondents who were laid off or furloughed during the pandemic were more likely to experience financial fragility than those without employment shocks. The effect size of financial capability factors was greater than that of COVID-19 shock factors. These results suggest that higher levels of both financial capability and financial inclusion may be effective in reducing the risk of financial fragility.

Originality/value

This study represents one of the first attempts to examine the potential effects of financial capability on financial fragility among consumers with various banking statuses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, this study offers new evidence to determine whether COVID-19 shocks, as measured by health and employment status, are associated with financial fragility. Additionally, the effect size of financial capability factors is greater than that of COVID-19 shock factors. The results from the 2021 NFCS dataset provide valuable insights for banking professionals and public policymakers on how to enhance consumer financial wellbeing.

Details

International Journal of Bank Marketing, vol. 42 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-2323

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 April 2024

Temitope Abraham Ajayi

This study aims to revisit the empirical debate about the asymmetric relationship between oil prices, energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in a panel of 184…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to revisit the empirical debate about the asymmetric relationship between oil prices, energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in a panel of 184 countries from 1981 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

A relatively new research method, the PVAR system GMM, is applied.

Findings

The outcome of the PVAR system GMM model at the group level in the study suggests that oil prices exert a positive but statistically insignificant effect on economic growth. Energy consumption is inversely related to economic growth but statistically significant, and the correlation between CO2 emissions and economic growth is negative but statistically insignificant. The Granger causality test indicates that oil prices, CO2 emissions, oil rents, energy consumption and savings jointly Granger-cause economic growth. A unidirectional causality runs from energy consumption, savings and economic growth to oil prices. At countries’ income grouping levels, oil prices, oil rent, CO2 emissions, energy consumption and savings jointly Granger-cause economic growth for the high-income and upper-middle-income countries groups only, while those variables did not jointly Granger-cause economic growth for the low-income and lower-middle-income countries groups. The modulus emanating from the eigenvalue stability condition with the roots of the companion matrix indicates that the model is stable. The results support the asymmetric impacts of oil prices on economic growth and aid policy formulation, particularly the cross-country disparities regarding the nexus between oil prices and growth.

Originality/value

From a methodological perspective, to the best of the author’s knowledge, the study is the first attempt to use the PVAR system GMM and such a large sample group of 184 economies in the post-COVID-19 era to examine the impacts of oil prices on countries’ growth while controlling for other crucial variables, which is noteworthy. Two, using the World Bank categorisation of countries according to income groups, the study adds another layer of contribution to the literature by decomposing the 184 sample economies into four income groups: high-income, low-income, upper-middle-income and lower-middle-income groups to investigate the potential for asymmetric effects of oil prices on growth, the first of its kind in the post-COVID-19 period.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 January 2024

Imran Khan

The paper aims to analyse the impact of economic and governance factors on remittance inflows to India from the UK, USA and UAE. India is globally recognised as the largest…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to analyse the impact of economic and governance factors on remittance inflows to India from the UK, USA and UAE. India is globally recognised as the largest recipient of remittances.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a comprehensive time series data set spanning 1996 to 2022, the authors use an innovative non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model approach to examine the influence of economic growth, corruption control and employer availability in the three source countries on remittance inflows to India.

Findings

The results indicate that in the UAE, changes in economic growth and corruption control directly affect remittance outflows. However, the presence of employers in the UAE has minimal impact on remittance outflows to India. Regarding the UK, fluctuations in economic growth primarily drive remittance outflows to India. The effect of corruption control and employment opportunities on remittance outflows is marginal. In the USA, economic growth does not notably impact remittance outflows, whereas corruption control and employment opportunities significantly influence the outflows to India.

Originality/value

These findings have important implications for policymakers. Analysing macroeconomic factors from key remittance-sending nations offers valuable insights for Indian policymakers and their international counterparts to enhance remittance inflows. The study focuses on three countries that collectively contribute to about 50% of India's remittances, providing a unique contribution compared to the usual country-specific or regional focus in existing literature. Finally, leveraging these findings, NITI Aayog, an organisation dedicated to achieving India's sustainable development goals, can effectively monitor macroeconomic indicators related to significant remittance-sending countries.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 December 2023

Gianni Carvelli

The purpose of this study is to provide new insights into the relationship between fiscal policy and total factor productivity (TFP) while accounting for several economic and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to provide new insights into the relationship between fiscal policy and total factor productivity (TFP) while accounting for several economic and econometric issues of the phenomenon like non-stationarity, fiscal feedback effects, persistence in productivity, country heterogeneity and unobserved global shocks and local spillovers affecting heterogeneously the countries in the sample.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper is empirical. It builds an Error Correction Model (ECM) specification within a dynamic heterogeneous framework with common correlated effects and models both reverse causality and feedback effects.

Findings

The results of this study highlight some new findings relative to the existing related literature. The outcomes suggest some relevant evidence at both the academic and policy levels: (1) the causal effects going from fiscal deficit/surplus to TFP are heterogeneous across countries; (2) the effects depend on the time horizon considered; (3) the long-run dynamics of TFP are positively impacted by improvements in fiscal budget, but only if the austerity measures do not exert slowdowns in aggregate growth.

Originality/value

The main originality of this study is methodological, with possible extensions to related phenomena. Relative to the existing literature, the gains of this study rely on the way econometric techniques, recently proposed in the literature, are adapted to the economic relationship of interest. The endogeneity due to the existence of reverse causality is modelled without implying relevant performance losses of the models. Moreover, this is the first article that questions whether the effects of fiscal budget on productivity depend on the impact of the former on aggregate output growth, thus emphasising the importance of the quality of fiscal adjustments.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 December 2022

Mumtaz Ali, Ahmed Samour, Foday Joof and Turgut Tursoy

This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables.

Findings

The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 December 2023

Elimar Veloso Conceição and Fabiano Guasti Lima

In the context of investment decisions, the intricate interplay between exogenous shocks and their influence on investor confidence significantly shapes their behaviors and…

Abstract

Purpose

In the context of investment decisions, the intricate interplay between exogenous shocks and their influence on investor confidence significantly shapes their behaviors and, consequently, their outcomes. Investment decisions are influenced by uncertainties, exogenous shocks as well as the sentiments and confidence of investors, factors typically overlooked by decision-makers. This study will meticulously examine these multifaceted influences and discern their intricate hierarchical nuances in the sentiments of industrial entrepreneurs during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

Employing the robust framework of the generalized linear latent and mixed models (GLLAMM), this research will thoroughly investigate individual and group idiosyncrasies present in diverse data compilations. Additionally, it will delve deeply into the exogeneity of disturbances across different sectors and regions.

Findings

Relevant insights gleaned from this research elucidate the adverse influence of exogenous forces, including pandemics and financial crises, on the confidence of industrial entrepreneurs. Furthermore, a significant discovery emerges in the regional analysis, revealing a notable homogeneity in the propagation patterns of industrial entrepreneurs' perceptions within the sectoral and regional context. This finding suggests a mitigation of regional effects in situations of global exogenous shocks.

Originality/value

Within the realm of academic inquiry, this study offers an innovative perspective in unveiling the intricate interaction between external shocks and their significant impacts on the sentiment of industrial entrepreneurs. Furthermore, the utilization of the robust GLLAMM captures the hierarchical dimension of this relationship, enhancing the precision of analyses. This approach provides a significant impetus for data-informed strategic directions.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 December 2023

Steven D. Silver and Marko Raseta

The intention of the empirics is to contribute to the general understanding of investor responses to market price shocks. The authors review assumptions about investor behavior in…

Abstract

Purpose

The intention of the empirics is to contribute to the general understanding of investor responses to market price shocks. The authors review assumptions about investor behavior in response to price shocks and investigate alternative rebalancing heuristics.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use market data over 40 years to define market shocks. Portfolio rebalancing implements constrained Markowitz mean-variance (MV) heuristics.

Findings

Momentum rebalancing in portfolio management outperforms contrarian rebalancing in the study interval. Sensitivity analysis by decade, sector constraints and proportion of security holdings bought or sold continue to support momentum rebalancing.

Research limitations/implications

The results are consistent with under-responding to price shocks at consensus levels in financial markets. The theoretical background provides a basis for experimental lab studies of shocks of different magnitudes under conditions in which participants have information on the levels of other participants and a condition in which they can only observe their previous estimates.

Practical implications

Managing portfolios in the face of price disturbances of different magnitudes is informed by empirical studies and their implications for investor behavior.

Originality/value

This is the first study the authors can locate that uses market data with alternative rebalancing heuristics to estimate price returns from the respective heuristics over a time interval of 40 years. The authors support the results with sensitivity estimates and consider implications for the underlying agent heuristics in light of background studies.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 50 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 July 2023

Mohit Kumar

To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia…

Abstract

Purpose

To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Design/methodology/approach

The study utilizes the “dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH)” approach of Gabauer (2020). The volatility of the markets is calculated following the approach of Parkinson (1980). The sample dataset comprises the daily volatility of the stock and exchange markets for 35 months, from November 2019 to September 2022.

Findings

The study confirms the existence of contagion effects among member countries. Volatility spillover between exchange and stock markets is low within the country but substantial across borders. Russian contribution increased significantly during the conflict with Ukraine, and other countries also witnessed a surge in the spillover index during the pandemic and war.

Research limitations/implications

It adds to the body of literature by emphasizing the necessity of comprehending the economies' behavior and interdependence. Offers insightful information to decision-makers who must be more watchful regarding the financial crisis and its regional spillover.

Originality/value

The study is the first to explore the contagion of volatility among the BRICS countries during the two biggest crisis periods of the decade.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 August 2023

Olusola Joshua Olujobi and Tunde Ebenezer Yebisi

The purpose of this study is to examine the corruption prevalent in the distribution of COVID-19 palliatives during the lockdown and movement restrictions in the country. This…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the corruption prevalent in the distribution of COVID-19 palliatives during the lockdown and movement restrictions in the country. This study seeks to analyse the current state of corruption in the distribution of COVID-19 palliatives and public health facilities in Nigeria while also providing a legal insight and strategic blueprint to combat corruption. To this end, this study will address the current legal framework for combating corruption and build upon this to formulate a working strategy for tackling corruption in the future.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a doctrinal legal research methodology, this study draws upon existing literature, tertiary data sources and information from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. The collected data is analysed and compared with current literature to identify key findings. Rent-seeking and utilitarian theories of the law were examined to guide this study. This study offers useful insights into combating corruption. The use of this method is justified, as it enhances the credibility of the findings on the importance of strategies for future emergencies. This legal research approach is consistent with the law and can be easily verified. The empirical aspect of this study involved a survey of multidimensional health-care and economic data set of 36 states in Nigeria plus the Federal Capital Territory on COVID-19 in Nigeria. A survey linearised regression model was estimated to determine the influence of government revenue and public health-care facilities in the control of the virus spread in Nigeria.

Findings

This study reveals the need for emphasis on the imperative of combating corruption in the distribution of COVID-19 palliatives and establishing economic resilience through transparent and accountable practices, supported by legal frameworks.

Research limitations/implications

Rent-seeking and utilitarian theories of law are evaluated because of their impacts on combating corruption. The limitation of this study is the intricacy of gathering data on COVID-19 palliatives corruption in Nigeria because of secrecy and the absence of reliable data on the subject.

Practical implications

Estimating the exact number of stolen palliatives and their fiscal impact on Nigeria's economy proves to be a formidable task because of the covert nature of corruption. This study equips policymakers in Nigeria with a better understanding of the legal challenges posed by corruption in the health care sector and provides an effective strategy to combat it.

Social implications

The lack of reliable data on the extent of palliative theft hinders the ability of lawmakers to enact effective legislation and strategies for combating corruption in the distribution of COVID-19 palliatives and addressing future emergencies in Nigeria. The policy implications of this study can assist policymakers in Nigeria and other countries in formulating measures to combat corruption in the distribution of COVID-19 palliatives and other future emergencies. Furthermore, it recommends the overhaul of anti-corruption laws and mechanisms in Nigeria to ensure effective measures against corruption.

Originality/value

In conclusion, this study contributes to knowledge by proposing a legal model centred on people's participation to enhance transparency and accountability in future palliative distribution processes. This study recommends legal strategies that can effectively address corruption in future emergencies or shocks. This study proposes a strategic blueprint to tackle corruption in the future. This blueprint includes an analysis of existing laws and regulations, as well as potential policy changes and legislative reform. This study also includes recommendations for improved enforcement and oversight mechanisms and for improved public awareness and education. As part of this, this study considers the potential for public–private partnerships to increase transparency and accountability in public health and health-care services.

Details

Journal of Financial Crime, vol. 31 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1359-0790

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 July 2023

Ayuba Napari, Rasim Ozcan and Asad Ul Islam Khan

For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the…

Abstract

Purpose

For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework.

Design/methodology/approach

This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates.

Findings

The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification.

Originality/value

The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

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