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Article
Publication date: 4 March 2019

Khandokar Istiak and Md Rafayet Alam

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the possible asymmetric response of inflation expectations to oil price and policy uncertainty shocks.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the possible asymmetric response of inflation expectations to oil price and policy uncertainty shocks.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used the test of asymmetric impulse responses proposed by Kilian and Vigfusson (2011) to explore the issue of asymmetry.

Findings

Unlike other studies that assume symmetric effects, this study finds asymmetric effects of oil price and policy uncertainty on inflation expectations for positive and negative shocks and for pre- and post-financial-crisis periods. In particular other things being same, a same magnitude oil price shock has greater effect on inflation expectations in post-crisis period than in pre-crisis period. Moreover, in post-crisis period a positive increasing oil price shock has greater effect on inflation expectations than a negative decreasing oil price shock.

Practical implications

The paper concludes that FED’s greater focus on output stabilization since financial crisis has made inflation expectations less anchored and a sudden surge in oil price may quickly trigger inflation through inflation expectations.

Originality/value

Exploring the issue of the possible asymmetric effects of oil price and economic policy uncertainty on inflation expectations is a relatively new topic (as other studies only assumed symmetry and did not investigate the possible asymmetry in this regard).

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 46 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 July 2014

Wen-Tsao Pan

When facing a clouded global economy, many countries would increase their gold reserves. On the other hand, oil supply and demand depends on the political and economic…

Abstract

Purpose

When facing a clouded global economy, many countries would increase their gold reserves. On the other hand, oil supply and demand depends on the political and economic situations of oil producing countries and their production technologies. Both oil and gold reserve play important roles in the economic development of a country. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses the historical data of oil and gold prices as research data, and uses the historical price tendency charts of oil and gold, as well as cluster analysis, to discuss the correlation between the historical data of oil and gold prices. By referring to the technical index equation of stocks, the technical indices of oil and gold prices are calculated as the independent variable and the closing price as the dependent variable of the forecasting model.

Findings

The findings indicate that there is no obvious correlation between the price tendencies of oil and gold. According to five evaluating indicators, the MFOAGRNN forecast model has better forecast ability than the other three forecasting models.

Originality/value

This paper explored the correlation between oil and gold prices, and built oil and gold prices forecasting models. In addition, this paper proposes a modified FOA (MFOA), where an escape parameter Δ is added to Si. The findings showed that the forecasting model that combines MFOA and GRNN has the best ability to forecast the closing price of oil and gold.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 43 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 March 2008

T.J. O’Neill, J. Penm and R.D. Terrell

The primary aim of this chapter is to examine whether the recent increase in world oil prices has affected inflation expectations and stock market returns in major OECD…

Abstract

The primary aim of this chapter is to examine whether the recent increase in world oil prices has affected inflation expectations and stock market returns in major OECD countries. The key findings are as follows. First, we found no evidence to support the presence of a long term relationship between oil prices and inflation expectations – measured by the difference between yields of inflation indexed and non-inflation indexed government bonds – over the sample between early 2003 and late 2006. Second, higher oil prices are found to lead to expectations of higher inflation. This evidence is stronger over the period where oil prices had been higher and signs of capacity constraints in the economy were emerging. Third, the impact of higher oil prices on stock market returns differs among countries. While higher oil prices are found to adversely affect stock market returns in the United States, the United Kingdom and France, the effects are positive in Canada and Australia as these countries are significant exporters of energy resources.

Details

Research in Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-549-9

Article
Publication date: 15 September 2022

Tom W. Miller

This study examines the dynamic responses of five different daily energy prices to a pulse shock affecting the daily price of oil.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the dynamic responses of five different daily energy prices to a pulse shock affecting the daily price of oil.

Design/methodology/approach

Daily data for energy prices from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for January 7, 1997, through February 8, 2021, are analyzed. A bivariate structural vector error correction model and generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic model are combined and extended by adding the volatility of the growth rate of daily oil prices as an explanatory variable for the growth rates of energy prices. This model is estimated and used to generate impulse responses for energy prices.

Findings

The empirical results show that the levels of the daily energy prices examined have unit roots, are integrated of order one, are cointegrated, and generally revert slowly to their long-term equilibrium relationships with the price of oil. The growth rates for the daily energy prices have autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity, generally are positively related to the volatility of daily oil prices, respond quickly to a pulse shock to daily oil prices, and have cumulative responses that last at least one month.

Originality/value

This paper allows for simultaneous estimation of extended bivariate structural vector error correction and generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic models that include the volatility of oil as an explanatory variable and uses these models to generated cumulative impulse responses for the growth rates of daily energy prices to oil price shocks.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 June 2022

Suresh Kumar, Ankit Kumar and Gurcharan Singh

This paper investigates the causality among gold prices, crude oil prices, bitcoin and stock prices by using daily data from January 2014 to December 2021. The study also…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the causality among gold prices, crude oil prices, bitcoin and stock prices by using daily data from January 2014 to December 2021. The study also examines the data during the COVID-19 outbreak from January 2020 to December 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

To estimate the long- and short-run causality, this study considers the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) cointegration test.

Findings

The analysis found the existence of an asymmetric long-run cointegration among selected assets. Findings indicate that positive changes in bitcoin do not affect stock market in the long term. Changes in crude oil prices have a significant impact on stock prices. Moreover, it is observed that variations in the stock prices trigger a negative impact on gold prices. During the COVID-19 period, the study notices the presence of an asymmetric long-term cointegration between selected assets except bitcoin. Besides, findings revealed that negative price adjustments in gold lead to significant positive shocks in stock market.

Originality/value

These results provide critical information for policy performers and researchers to develop new strategies. Policy regulators can also consider the potential effects of the COVID-19 outbreak while developing strategies for investment decisions.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Dynamic Linkages and Volatility Spillover
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-554-6

Abstract

Details

Energy Economics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-294-2

Abstract

Details

Functional Structure Inference
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44453-061-5

Article
Publication date: 14 June 2022

Bhagavatula Aruna and Rajesh H. Acharya

This paper aims to examine the asymmetric impact of the oil price increase and decrease on stock returns at the firm level.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the asymmetric impact of the oil price increase and decrease on stock returns at the firm level.

Design/methodology/approach

To ascertain the impact oil price can exert on the stock price at the firm level, this study uses panel structural vector auto regression with various linear and nonlinear measures of oil price shock on a data set, containing 1,168 firms listed in Indian stock markets. This study also considers stock index returns, Fama-French factors and inflation as control variables.

Findings

This paper finds evidence that at firm level, net oil price increase and decrease have an asymmetric impact on stock returns. Other oil price shock measures, namely, shock because of oil price increase and decrease, do not show any sign of asymmetric impact on stock returns.

Originality/value

The comparison of firm-level return on its response towards oil price fluctuation can give valuable insights into a firm’s features.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 March 2022

Ho Thuy Tien and Ngo Thai Hung

This study aims to examine the spillover effects of the mean and volatility between oil prices and stock indices of six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (UAE…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the spillover effects of the mean and volatility between oil prices and stock indices of six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain).

Design/methodology/approach

Over the period 2008–2019, a bivariate VARMA-GARCH-ADCC model was combined with the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform technique filter to shed light on a wide range of possible spillover effects in the mean and variances of level prices at various time horizons.

Findings

The authors find that the spillover effects between oil prices and the GCC stock markets are time-varying and spread across various time horizons. Besides, oil prices and stock market indices are directly impacted by their own shocks and variations and indirectly influenced by other price volatilities and wavelet scales. The linkages in volatility spillovers between oil prices and the GCC stock markets occur in the short-term, midterm and long-term horizons. More specifically, the results also show that the asymmetric estimates are statistically significant for the associations between oil prices and each stock market in the GCC countries. This implies that negative shocks play a more vital role than positive shocks in driving the dynamic condition correlations between oil and stock markets under study.

Practical implications

The significant interrelatedness between oil prices and each stock market in the GCC countries has important implications for investors, portfolio managers, and other market participants. They can use the findings of this research to create the best oil-GCC stock portfolios and predict more precisely the volatility spillover patterns in constructing their hedging strategies.

Originality/value

In several ways, this study differs from previous research. First, while previous empirical studies of the dynamic link between oil prices and stock markets have focused primarily on developed or emerging markets, the focus of this is on six GCC countries. Second, the linkage between oil prices and stock markets is typically studied at the original data level in the time domain in relevant literature, while frequency information is overlooked. Therefore, the current study examines this relationship from a multiscale perspective. Third, in this paper, to capture a wide range of possible spillover effects in the mean and variance of level prices at multiple wavelet scales, the authors use a VARMA-GARCH-ADCC model in conjunction with wavelet multiresolution analysis. Additionally, this article also applies wavelet hedge ratio and wavelet hedge portfolio analysis at various time horizons.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

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