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In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980–2017 period.

We employ the linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model that captures the dynamic relationships between the variables and additionally use the nonlinear ARDL model that considers the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate changes.

The estimated models were diagnostically sound, and the variables were found to be cointegrated. However, with the exception of Malaysia, the short- and long-run relationships did not attest to the presence of the J-curve effect. The trade flows were affected asymmetrically in Malaysia and the Philippines, suggesting the appropriateness of nonlinear ARDL in these countries.

The previous research tended to examine the effects of the real exchange rate changes on the agricultural trade balance and specifically the J-curve effect (deterioration of the trade balance followed by its improvement) in the developed economies and rarely in the developing ones. In this paper, we address this omission.

Czechia's economic growth is substantially dependent on foreign trade. An independent monetary policy in a managed floating exchange rate regime gives a unique perspective on the effects of the exchange rate on foreign trade. This chapter evaluates the effects of exchange rate development on different sectors of Czechia's foreign trade. Using disaggregated data based on trading partner and product category, the period from 1999 to 2020 is analyzed. Czechia's 10 major trading partners are included in the estimation. The relationship between exchange rates and foreign trade is assessed through a Johansen cointegration approach and modified vector error correction model. The results of the Johansen cointegration test indicate that the majority of the aggregate bilateral trade balances are in a long-term relationship with Czechia's gross domestic product (GDP), foreign GDP and exchange rate movements. The J-curve is proved only in chemicals and related products traded with France, manufactured goods traded with Italy and Slovakia and mineral fuels and lubricants traded with the Netherlands.

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework.

Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination.

It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of changes in credit stock on real and financial indicators in Turkey with a focus on conditional and time-varying dynamics.

In addition to lag-augmented vector autoregression (LA-VAR) based time-varying Granger causality tests, threshold models and a research setting that identifies high/low states of credit growth based on 24-month moving averages are used to explore regime-dependent behavior. For investigating the asymmetric dynamics, the authors use a methodology that identifies good/bad news in credit growth based on 24-month moving averages and standard deviations.

Results strongly suggest that the impact of changes in credit stock induces conditional responses. Moreover, we find evidence for asymmetric responses. In the case of Turkey, efforts to spur growth through credit produce a strong negative byproduct, a depreciation in the exchange rate. The authors also find that changes in credit stock have become more relevant for uncertainties in inflation and exchange rate expectations, particularly in the era after mid-2018 in which credit growth volatility has increased noticeably.

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of time-varying and conditional responses to a change in credit stock in a major emerging economy. Using a moving threshold based only on the available information in the analysis of state-dependency represents a new approach.

Given the difficulties in finding significant exchange rate exposure in the extant literature, this paper attempts to resolve the so-called “exposure puzzle” by investigating whether currency movements have any significant impact on international industry returns.

This paper utilizes the multivariate Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) methodology to estimate both symmetric and asymmetric exchange rate exposures for each industry common across 12 countries simultaneously.

The empirical results show that exchange rate exposure is not only statistically significant but also economically important based on the estimation of an asymmetric three-factor exposure model using MGARCH methodology. This is an extremely important finding as it suggests that the “exposure puzzle” may not be a puzzle at all once a better methodology is utilized in the estimation.

Because this study tries to resolve the exchange rate exposure puzzle by focusing on whether exchange rate movements affect ex-post returns as opposed to ex ante expected returns and given the significant exposures with respect to different risk factors found in the study, it is interesting to see if any of these risk factors commands a risk premium. In other words, a natural extension of this study is to test whether any of these risk factors is priced in international industry returns.

The findings of the study have interesting implications for international investors who would like to diversify their portfolios across different industries and are concerned about whether the unexpected movements in the bilateral exchange rates will affect their portfolio returns in addition to its interest rate and world market risk exposures.

The study utilizes the MGARCH methodology, which has not been fully exploited in the exchange rate exposure literature.

This study investigates the impact of US dollar volatility and oil rents on the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, with an emphasis on understanding how these factors influence SME financing constraints in economies with fixed currency regimes.

Employing a random effects panel regression analysis, this research considers US dollar volatility and oil rents as independent variables, with SME performance, measured through the financing gap, as the dependent variable. Controls such as trade balance, inflation deltas and gross domestic product (GDP) growth are included to isolate their effects on SME financing constraints.

The study reveals a significant positive relationship between dollar volatility and the financing gap, suggesting that increased volatility can exacerbate SME financing constraints. Conversely, oil rents did not show a significant direct influence on SME performance. The trade balance and inflation deltas were found to have significant effects, highlighting the multifaceted nature of economic variables affecting SMEs.

The study acknowledges potential biases due to omitted variables and the limitations inherent in the use of secondary data.

Findings offer pertinent guidance for SMEs and policymakers in the GCC region seeking to develop strategies that mitigate the impact of currency volatility and support SME financing.

The research provides new insights into the dynamics of SME performance within fixed currency regimes, which significantly contributes to the limited literature in this area. The paper further underscores the complex connections between global economic factors and SME financial health.

The purpose of this study is to construct a new index to assess the impact of an energy price shock on macroeconomic indicators of India. This paper also shows a comparative analysis of the constructed index along with pre-existing World Bank and International Monetary Fund indices on energy.

This paper uses three vector autoregressions and compute the long-term impact of the indices on the considered macroeconomic variables through impulse response functions.

This paper finds that an energy price shock has a detrimental impact on the macroeconomic indicators of India in the long run. This study also finds that the constructed index acts as a relatively more sensitive index in comparison to the International Monetary Fund and World Bank indices, which is bespoke to a developing economy case. This sensitivity is ascribed to dynamic weighting for a different basket of energy components, which are more pertinent to an Indian context.

The novelty of this research lies in the construction of a new index and its comparison to the existing ones. This study justifies why a developing economy would require a different measure of energy as opposed to the existing indices.

This study aims to investigate the effect of oil prices, economic growth and information communication technology (ICT) on investment into renewable energy transition (RET).

Based on six selected African countries (i.e. Algeria, Egypt, Angola, Ethiopia, South Africa and Nigeria), the study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model over the period from 1995 to 2020.

The results show that increasing oil prices, by substitution effect, leads to increasing RET investment, while declining oil prices lead to decreasing RET investment in the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that increasing real gross domestic product leads to increased RET investment, while declining real gross domestic product (GDP) leads to decreasing RET investment both in the short and long run. Simultaneously, the study shows that increasing ICT has a significant and positive impact on RET investment, while declining ICT has a significant negative impact on RET investment in the short and long run.

The findings of this study have advanced the understanding of which factors significantly influence RET investment and the need to concentrate efforts on strategically addressing those factors. The findings indicate that these countries are at the progressive stage in terms of renewable energy; though increasing oil prices contribute to rising RET investment, the countries can be more proactive by improving the full potential of ICT as well as facilitating the growth of their economies.

This paper aims to investigate the impact of political stability on corruption by drawing upon a sample encompassing both developed and developing European and Asian countries.

The dataset, sourced from the Refinitiv database, spans from July 2014 to May 2022. Panel data techniques, specifically pooled estimation and dynamic panel data [generalized method of moments (GMM)] are employed. The analysis encompasses both fixed and random effects models to capture country-specific cross-sectional effects. To validate our findings, we perform a robustness test by including in the investigation four control variables, namely poverty, type of governance, economic freedom and inflation. To test heterogeneity, the dataset is further divided into two distinct subsamples based on the countries’ locations.

Empirical findings substantiate that political stability (viewed as the risk of government destabilization) has a positive and significant impact on corruption in all analyzed samples of European and Asian countries, though some differences are observed in various subsamples. When we take into account the control variables, these analysis results are robust.

This research provided a panel data analysis with GMM, while other empirical methodologies could also be used, like the difference-in-difference approach. However, our results should be validated by extending the time and the sample to a worldwide sample and using alternative measures of corruption and political stability. Moreover, our focus was on a linear and unidirectional relationship between the considered variables, but it would be interesting to test in our further research a non-linear and bidirectional correlation between them. Furthermore, we have introduced in the robustness test only four economic variables, but to consolidate our findings, we plan to include socioeconomic and demographic variables in future studies.

These outcomes imply that authorities should be aware of the necessity of implementing anti-corruption policies designed to establish effective agencies and enforcement structures for combating systemic corruption, to improve the political environment and the quality of institutions and to apply coherent economic strategies to accelerate economic growth because higher political stability and sustainable development determine a decrease in levels of corruption.

At the microeconomic level, the survival of organizations may be in danger from new types of corruption and money laundering. Therefore, in order to prevent financial harm, the top businesses worldwide should respond to instances of corruption through strengthened supervisory procedures. This calls for the creation of a mechanism inside the code of conduct where correct reporting of suspected situations of corruption would have a prompt procedure to be notified of. To avoid corruption in operational procedures, national plans and policies should be developed by government officials, executives and legislators on a national level, as well as by senior management and the board of directors on an organizational level. This might lower organizations' extra corruption-related expenses, assure economic growth and improve global welfare.

A novel feature of our research resides in its broad examination of a sizable sample of European and Asian countries regarding the nexus between corruption and political stability. The paper also investigates a less explored topic in economic literature, namely the impact of political stability on corruption. Furthermore, the study depicts policy recommendations, outlining effective and reasonable measures aimed at improving the political landscape and combating corruption.

The aim of this study is to approach the way in which corporate governance influences the occurrence of financial fraud, as expressed by the M-Beneish score. In order to get further into the topic, we have first computed a corporate governance score based on the comply-explain statement and then selected a few elements that are part of the corporate governance reporting: equilibrium of board members (EQUIL), independence of board members (INDEP), selection of the board members (NOM), remuneration policy (REM), audit committee (AUDIT) and the proportion of female directors on boards (GenF). They were tested, one by one, using the financial fraud score to see the way in which they interact.

The study is conducted on a sample of 65 companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) for the 2016–2022 period. The data were processed using three-stage general least square [general least squares (GLS), with iteration, igls and option] with a common first-order panel-specific autocorrelation correction, so as to explain how a poor adoption of the corporate governance score and its elements has a negative implication for the M-Beneish score, controlling for the auditor opinion, type of auditing company and if the company is privately owned.

The results support most of our research hypothesis, revealing that a poor adoption of the corporate governance score and its components – AUDIT, EQUIL, INDEP and GenF – negatively influences the M-Beneish score, i.e. a low corporate governance score will lead to an increase in financial fraud. This is an encouraging aspect, for an improved adoption of the corporate governance principles reduces the occurrence of financial fraud.

This is a study that concerns the relationship between corporate governance and financial fraud for the case study for Romania.

The study highlights the importance of adopting the corporate governance code applied to the Romanian business environment. By measuring the presence of financial fraud appearance through the M-Beneish score, we have managed to outline the negative relationship between the two components. Thus, it is an important aspect of which companies should take account, so they will have long-term benefits and ensure the continuity of the business.

The policy implications of this project are for policymakers, so that they will understand how a good corporate governance mechanism will enhance high-performing businesses. Different aspects regarding corporate governance were validated and are in the process of being validated. Managers can extract and try to understand and apply the good characteristics of corporate governance for the well-being of their companies. At a broader level, the macroeconomic environment will increase its own well-being while encouraging market players to enhance qualitative corporate governance reporting. There is no doubt that corporate governance has a positive impact on businesses.

The study highlights the importance of adopting the corporate governance code as applied to the Romanian business environment. By measuring the occurrence of financial fraud using the M-Beneish score, we have managed to outline the negative relationship between the two components. Therefore, this is an important aspect that companies should take into account in order to have long-term benefits and ensure the continuity of their business.