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Article
Publication date: 1 March 2003

James E. Payne and Ken Schwendeman

Given the absence of a formal forecasting model of property insurance surtax revenue for the state of Kentucky, this paper presents the insample and out-of-sample…

Abstract

Given the absence of a formal forecasting model of property insurance surtax revenue for the state of Kentucky, this paper presents the insample and out-of-sample forecasts of four models: Holt linear trend algorithm, autoregressive model, linear trend/autoregressive model, and economic activity model based on annual fiscal year data from 1984 to 2001. The Holt linear trend algorithm and the linear trend/autoregressive model were reasonably close in their respective forecasting performance for both the in-sample and out-ofsample forecast horizons. However, the linear trend/autoregressive model exhibited some evidence of instability for the period 1992 to 1994. With respect to the out-of-sample forecasts, the Holt linear trend algorithm provided a better fit to the actual surtax data. Moreover, as time passes and additional data on the surtax becomes available, the models presented can easily be updated and reevaluated.

Details

Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, vol. 15 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1096-3367

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Abstract

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Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-838-5

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Book part
Publication date: 13 December 2013

Kirstin Hubrich and Timo Teräsvirta

This survey focuses on two families of nonlinear vector time series models, the family of vector threshold regression (VTR) models and that of vector smooth transition…

Abstract

This survey focuses on two families of nonlinear vector time series models, the family of vector threshold regression (VTR) models and that of vector smooth transition regression (VSTR) models. These two model classes contain incomplete models in the sense that strongly exogeneous variables are allowed in the equations. The emphasis is on stationary models, but the considerations also include nonstationary VTR and VSTR models with cointegrated variables. Model specification, estimation and evaluation is considered, and the use of the models illustrated by macroeconomic examples from the literature.

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VAR Models in Macroeconomics – New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78190-752-8

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Book part
Publication date: 30 December 2004

Thomas L. Marsh and Ron C. Mittelhammer

We formulate generalized maximum entropy estimators for the general linear model and the censored regression model when there is first order spatial autoregression in the…

Abstract

We formulate generalized maximum entropy estimators for the general linear model and the censored regression model when there is first order spatial autoregression in the dependent variable. Monte Carlo experiments are provided to compare the performance of spatial entropy estimators relative to classical estimators. Finally, the estimators are applied to an illustrative model allocating agricultural disaster payments.

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Spatial and Spatiotemporal Econometrics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-148-4

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Article
Publication date: 20 November 2020

Lydie Myriam Marcelle Amelot, Ushad Subadar Agathee and Yuvraj Sunecher

This study constructs time series model, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and statistical topologies to examine the volatility and forecast foreign exchange rates. The…

Abstract

Purpose

This study constructs time series model, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and statistical topologies to examine the volatility and forecast foreign exchange rates. The Mauritian forex market has been utilized as a case study, and daily data for nominal spot rate (during a time period of five years spanning from 2014 to 2018) for EUR/MUR, GBP/MUR, CAD/MUR and AUD/MUR have been applied for the predictions.

Design/methodology/approach

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models are used as a basis for time series modelling for the analysis, along with the non-linear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural network backpropagation algorithm utilizing different training functions, namely, Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), Bayesian regularization and scaled conjugate gradient (SCG) algorithms. The study also features a hybrid kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) using the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm as an additional statistical tool to conduct financial market forecasting modelling. Mean squared error (MSE) and root mean square error (RMSE) are employed as indicators for the performance of the models.

Findings

The results demonstrated that the GARCH model performed better in terms of volatility clustering and prediction compared to the ARIMA model. On the other hand, the NARX model indicated that LM and Bayesian regularization training algorithms are the most appropriate method of forecasting the different currency exchange rates as the MSE and RMSE seemed to be the lowest error compared to the other training functions. Meanwhile, the results reported that NARX and KPCA–SVR topologies outperformed the linear time series models due to the theory based on the structural risk minimization principle. Finally, the comparison between the NARX model and KPCA–SVR illustrated that the NARX model outperformed the statistical prediction model. Overall, the study deduced that the NARX topology achieves better prediction performance results compared to time series and statistical parameters.

Research limitations/implications

The foreign exchange market is considered to be instable owing to uncertainties in the economic environment of any country and thus, accurate forecasting of foreign exchange rates is crucial for any foreign exchange activity. The study has an important economic implication as it will help researchers, investors, traders, speculators and financial analysts, users of financial news in banking and financial institutions, money changers, non-banking financial companies and stock exchange institutions in Mauritius to take investment decisions in terms of international portfolios. Moreover, currency rates instability might raise transaction costs and diminish the returns in terms of international trade. Exchange rate volatility raises the need to implement a highly organized risk management measures so as to disclose future trend and movement of the foreign currencies which could act as an essential guidance for foreign exchange participants. By this way, they will be more alert before conducting any forex transactions including hedging, asset pricing or any speculation activity, take corrective actions, thus preventing them from making any potential losses in the future and gain more profit.

Originality/value

This is one of the first studies applying artificial intelligence (AI) while making use of time series modelling, the NARX neural network backpropagation algorithm and hybrid KPCA–SVR to predict forex using multiple currencies in the foreign exchange market in Mauritius.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 12 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 12 June 2017

Nara Rossetti, Marcelo Seido Nagano and Jorge Luis Faria Meirelles

This paper aims to analyse the volatility of the fixed income market from 11 countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Argentina, Chile, Mexico, USA, Germany…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyse the volatility of the fixed income market from 11 countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Argentina, Chile, Mexico, USA, Germany and Japan) from January 2000 to December 2011 by examining the interbank interest rates from each market.

Design/methodology/approach

To the volatility of interest rates returns, the study used models of auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity, autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH), threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (TGARCH) and periodic generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (PGARCH), and a combination of these with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, checking which of these processes were more efficient in capturing volatility of interest rates of each of the sample countries.

Findings

The results suggest that for most markets, studied volatility is best modelled by asymmetric GARCH processes – in this case the EGARCH – demonstrating that bad news leads to a higher increase in the volatility of these markets than good news. In addition, the causes of increased volatility seem to be more associated with events occurring internally in each country, as changes in macroeconomic policies, than the overall external events.

Originality/value

It is expected that this study has contributed to a better understanding of the volatility of interest rates and the main factors affecting this market.

Propósito

Este estudio analiza la volatilidad del mercado de renta fija de once países (Brasil, Rusia, India, China, Sudáfrica, Argentina, Chile, México, Estados Unidos, Alemania y Japón) de enero de 2000 a diciembre de 2011, mediante el examen de las tasas de interés interbancarias de cada mercado.

Diseño/metodología/enfoque

Para la volatilidad de los retornos de las tasas de interés, se utilizaron modelos de heteroscedasticidad condicional autorregresiva: ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH y PGARCH, y una combinación de estos con modelos ARIMA, comprobando cuáles de los procesos eran más eficientes para capturar la volatilidad de interés de cada uno de los países de la muestra.

Hallazgos

Los resultados sugieren que para la mayoría de los mercados estudiados la volatilidad es mejor modelada por procesos GARCH asimétricos —en este caso el EGARCH— demostrando que las malas noticias conducen a un mayor incremento en la volatilidad de estos mercados que las buenas noticias. Además, las causas de una mayor volatilidad parecen estar más asociadas a eventos que ocurren internamente en cada país, como cambios en las políticas macroeconómicas, que los eventos externos generales.

Originalidad/valor

Se espera que este estudio contribuya a un mejor entendimiento de la volatilidad de las tasas de interés y de los principales factores que afectan a este mercado.

Palabras clave

Ingreso fijo, Volatilidad, Países emergentes, Modelos ARCH-GARCH

Tipo de artículo

Artículo de investigación

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 22 no. 42
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 2 May 2017

Tatiana Fedyk

The purpose of this paper is to examine the way serial correlation in quarterly earnings forecast errors varies with firm and analyst attributes such as the firm’s…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the way serial correlation in quarterly earnings forecast errors varies with firm and analyst attributes such as the firm’s industry and the analyst’s experience and brokerage house affiliation. Prior research on financial analysts’ quarterly earnings forecasts has documented serial correlation in forecast errors.

Design/methodology/approach

Finding that serial correlation in forecast errors is significant and seemingly independent of firm and analyst attributes, the consensus forecast errors are modeled as an autoregressive process. The model of forecast errors that best fits the data is AR(1), and the obtained autoregressive coefficients are used to predict consensus forecast errors.

Findings

Modeling the consensus forecast errors as an autoregressive process, the present study predicts future consensus forecast errors and proposes a series of refinements to the consensus.

Originality/value

These refinements were not presented in prior literature and can be useful to financial analysts and investors.

Details

International Journal of Accounting & Information Management, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1834-7649

Keywords

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Abstract

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Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-838-5

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Book part
Publication date: 30 December 2004

Harry H. Kelejian, Ingmar R. Prucha and Yevgeny Yuzefovich

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, on a theoretical level we introduce a series-type instrumental variable (IV) estimator of the parameters of a spatial first…

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, on a theoretical level we introduce a series-type instrumental variable (IV) estimator of the parameters of a spatial first order autoregressive model with first order autoregressive disturbances. We demonstrate that our estimator is asymptotically efficient within the class of IV estimators, and has a lower computational count than an efficient IV estimator that was introduced by Lee (2003). Second, via Monte Carlo techniques we give small sample results relating to our suggested estimator, the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, and other IV estimators suggested in the literature. Among other things we find that the ML estimator, both of the asymptotically efficient IV estimators, as well as an IV estimator introduced in Kelejian and Prucha (1998), have quite similar small sample properties. Our results also suggest the use of iterated versions of the IV estimators.

Details

Spatial and Spatiotemporal Econometrics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-148-4

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Article
Publication date: 4 September 2020

Mehdi Khashei and Bahareh Mahdavi Sharif

The purpose of this paper is to propose a comprehensive version of a hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) in…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a comprehensive version of a hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) in order to yield a more general and more accurate hybrid model for exchange rates forecasting. For this purpose, the Kalman filter technique is used in the proposed model to preprocess and detect the trend of raw data. It is basically done to reduce the existing noise in the underlying data and better modeling, respectively.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, ARIMA models are applied to construct a new hybrid model to overcome the above-mentioned limitations of ANNs and to yield a more general and more accurate model than traditional hybrid ARIMA and ANNs models. In our proposed model, a time series is considered as a function of a linear and nonlinear component, so, in the first phase, an ARIMA model is first used to identify and magnify the existing linear structures in data. In the second phase, a multilayer perceptron is used as a nonlinear neural network to model the preprocessed data, in which the existing linear structures are identified and magnified by ARIMA and to predict the future value of time series.

Findings

In this paper, a new Kalman filter based hybrid artificial neural network and ARIMA model are proposed as an alternate forecasting technique to the traditional hybrid ARIMA/ANNs models. In the proposed model, similar to the traditional hybrid ARIMA/ANNs models, the unique strengths of ARIMA and ANN in linear and nonlinear modeling are jointly used, aiming to capture different forms of relationship in the data; especially, in complex problems that have both linear and nonlinear correlation structures. However, there are no aforementioned assumptions in the modeling process of the proposed model. Therefore, in the proposed model, in contrast to the traditional hybrid ARIMA/ANNs, it can be generally guaranteed that the performance of the proposed model will not be worse than either of their components used separately. In addition, empirical results in both weekly and daily exchange rate forecasting indicate that the proposed model can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by traditional hybrid ARIMA/ANNs models.

Originality/value

In the proposed model, in contrast to the traditional hybrid ARIMA/ANNs, it can be guaranteed that the performance of the proposed model will not be worse than either of the components used separately. In addition, empirical results in exchange rate forecasting indicate that the proposed model can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by traditional hybrid ARIMA/ANNs models. Therefore, it can be used as an appropriate alternate model for forecasting in exchange ratemarkets, especially when higher forecasting accuracy is needed.

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