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1 – 10 of over 19000Christina Anderl and Guglielmo Maria Caporale
The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.
Abstract
Purpose
The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework.
Findings
Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination.
Originality/value
It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.
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Subrata Ghatak and Willy Spanjers
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the potential benefits of monetary policy rules for transition economies (TEs).
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the potential benefits of monetary policy rules for transition economies (TEs).
Design/methodology/approach
The paper discusses monetary policy rules, inflation targeting, political risk and ambiguity and monetary policy and ambiguity.
Findings
It is argued that the nominal interest rate may fail to be the appropriate instrument in such rules. One reason is the amount of non‐calculable political and economic risk inherent in TEs. These risks lead to a significant and volatile‐ambiguity premium in the interest rate over and above the normal risk premium, which makes the real equilibrium interest rate difficult to measure. Furthermore, ambiguity of the public regarding the monetary policy leads to an ambiguity premium on inflation.
Originality/value
The paper advocates a simple monetary policy rule based on a monetary aggregate like the money base minimizes the impact of ambiguity. It may therefore be the appropriate monetary policy for TEs.
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Guobing Wu, Hao Zhang and Ping Chen
In this paper, six forms of non-linear Taylor rule have been applied to compare the fitting and prediction of response function of monetary policy of China, in an attempt to…
Abstract
Purpose
In this paper, six forms of non-linear Taylor rule have been applied to compare the fitting and prediction of response function of monetary policy of China, in an attempt to figure out a form of non-linear Taylor rule that accords with Chinese practices. The paper aims to discuss this issue.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, the authors will conduct in-sample fitting and out-of-sample prediction on the response function of monetary policy of China by introducing the factor of exchange rate and by applying forward-looking, backward-looking and within-quarters non-linear Taylor rule with data from the first quarter of 1994 to the second quarter of 2011, with a view to provide reference for formulation and implementation of monetary policies of China.
Findings
By analyzing the experimental data, the authors find that first, after introducing the factor of exchange rate, both the implementation effect and prediction ability of the monetary policies improve. Exchange rate has a relatively greater influence on the effect of the monetary policies during low inflation period. Introduction of exchange rate can improve the prediction accuracy of our monetary policies significantly. Second, as the implementation effect of monetary policy under different macro-background varies greatly, the situation should be correctly appraised when formulating and implementing monetary policies. According to the empirical results, the monetary policies have obvious non-linear characteristics, and transit smoothly with the change of inflation rate. On the two sides of inflation rate of 2.174 percent, there is an asymmetry response.
Research limitations/implications
Surely, the conclusions are reached on the basis of quarterly data and one-step prediction method. It is no doubt that use of frequency mixing data including quarterly and monthly data will provide more sample information for studying relevant issues. And the use of multiple-step prediction method may cause a dynamic change of prediction indicators of models, which will help choose more appropriate prediction models. That is what the authors will study next.
Originality/value
First, by introducing exchange rate, this paper will extend non-linear Taylor rules and test its applicability and fitting effect in China. Second, figure out a non-linear Taylor rule that conforms to Chinese practices with data. In this paper, multiple forms of non-linear Taylor rules and actual macro date will be adopted for fitting and finding out a non-linear Taylor rule that fits Chinese practices. Third, empirical basis will be provided for further perfecting monetary policies prediction models. As there are few studies in connection with the prediction accuracy of non-linear Taylor rules so far, this paper will compare and study the prediction accuracy of non-linear Taylor rules by utilizing multiple advanced prediction techniques, so as to offer a beneficial thinking for predicting and formulating monetary policies by the central bank.
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This chapter investigates the predictability of the European monetary policy through the eyes of the professional forecasters from a large investment bank. The analysis is based…
Abstract
This chapter investigates the predictability of the European monetary policy through the eyes of the professional forecasters from a large investment bank. The analysis is based on forward-looking Actual and Perceived Taylor Rules for the European Central Bank which are estimated in real-time using a newly constructed database for the period April 2000–November 2009. The former policy rule is based on the actual refi rate set by the Governing Council, while the latter is estimated for the bank’s economists using their main point forecast for the upcoming refi rate decision as a dependent variable. The empirical evidence shows that the pattern of the refi rate is broadly well predicted by the professional forecasters even though the latter have foreseen more accurately the increases rather than the policy rate cuts. Second, the results point to an increasing responsiveness of the ECB to macroeconomic fundamentals along the forecast horizon. Third, the rolling window regressions suggest that the estimated coefficients have changed after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in October 2008; the ECB has responded less strongly to macroeconomic fundamentals and the degree of policy inertia has decreased. A sensitivity analysis shows that the baseline results are robust to applying a recursive window methodology and some of the findings are qualitatively unaltered from using Consensus Economics forecasts in the regressions.
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This chapter estimates a regime switching Taylor Rule for the European Central Bank (ECB) in order to investigate some potential nonlinearities in the forward-looking policy…
Abstract
This chapter estimates a regime switching Taylor Rule for the European Central Bank (ECB) in order to investigate some potential nonlinearities in the forward-looking policy reaction function within a real-time framework. In order to compare observed and predicted policy behavior, the chapter estimates Actual and Perceived regime switching Taylor Rules for the ECB. The former is based on the refi rate set by the Governing Council while the latter relies on the professional point forecasts of the refi rate performed by a large investment bank before the upcoming policy rate decision. The empirical evidence shows that the Central Bank’s main policy rate has switched between two regimes: in the first one the Taylor Principle is satisfied and the ECB stabilizes the economic outlook, while in the second regime the Central Bank cuts rates more aggressively and puts a higher emphasis on stabilizing real output growth expectations. Second, the results point out that the professional forecasters have broadly well predicted the actual policy regimes. The estimation results are also robust to using consensus forecasts of inflation and real output growth. The empirical evidence from the augmented Taylor Rules shows that the Central Bank has most likely not responded to the growth rates of M3 and the nominal effective exchange rate and the estimated regimes are robust to including these additional variables in the regressions. Finally, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers the policy rate has switched to a crisis regime as the ECB has focused on preventing a further decline in economic activity and on securing the stability of the financial system.
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Nicholas Apergis and Chi Keung Marco Lau
This paper aims to provide fresh empirical evidence on how Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decisions from a benchmark monetary policy rule affect the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to provide fresh empirical evidence on how Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decisions from a benchmark monetary policy rule affect the profitability of US banking institutions.
Design/methodology/approach
It thereby provides a link between the literature on central bank monetary policy implementation through monetary rules and banks’ profitability. It uses a novel data set from 11,894 US banks, spanning the period 1990 to 2013.
Findings
The empirical findings show that deviations of FOMC monetary policy decisions from a number of benchmark linear and non-linear monetary (Taylor type) rules exert a negative and statistically significant impact on banks’ profitability.
Originality/value
The results are expected to have substantial implications for the capacity of banking institutions to more readily interpret monetary policy information and accordingly to reshape and hedge their lending behaviour. This would make the monetary policy decision process less noisy and, thus, enhance their capability to attach the correct weight to this information.
ROGER W. SPENCER and JOHN H. HUSTON
John Taylor devised a simple monetary policy rule that links the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate with inflation and output targets. This paper compares actual policy rates…
Abstract
John Taylor devised a simple monetary policy rule that links the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate with inflation and output targets. This paper compares actual policy rates with the rates that would have been recommended by the basic Taylor Rule for three long periods in U.S. economic history: 1875–1913 (“Pre Fed”), 1914–1951 (“Early Fed”), and 1952–1998 (“Modern Fed”). In addition, the authors develop a more complex version of the Rule to facilitate a comparison of the way in which each monetary authority would have reacted to the economic challenges presented outside its own time period. The empirical evidence suggests that Modern Fed would have reacted more promptly and appropriately to inflation and output problems outside its time period than either Early Fed or Pre Fed, and that the movement of interest rates in the Pre Fed period came closer to the corrective policies of Modern Fed than did those of Early Fed.
We would like to thank C. Y. Chen, Wenchih Lee, two anonymous referees and the seminar participants at the 2000 FMA annual meeting for their helpful comments and encouragement. All of the remaining errors are our responsibility.
Camille Cornand and Frank Heinemann
In this article, we survey experiments that are directly related to monetary policy and central banking. We argue that experiments can also be used as a tool for central bankers…
Abstract
In this article, we survey experiments that are directly related to monetary policy and central banking. We argue that experiments can also be used as a tool for central bankers for bench testing policy measures or rules. We distinguish experiments that analyze the reasons for non-neutrality of monetary policy, experiments in which subjects play the role of central bankers, experiments that analyze the role of central bank communication and its implications, experiments on the optimal implementation of monetary policy, and experiments relevant for monetary policy responses to financial crises. Finally, we mention open issues and raise new avenues for future research.
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Sherine Al-shawarby and Mai El Mossallamy
This paper aims to estimate a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Egypt using Bayesian techniques and data for the period…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to estimate a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Egypt using Bayesian techniques and data for the period FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4 to assess monetary and fiscal policy interactions and their impact on economic stabilization. Outcomes of monetary and fiscal authority commitment to policy instruments, interest rate, government spending and taxes, are evaluated using Taylor-type and optimal simple rules.
Design/methodology/approach
The study extends the stylized micro-founded small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model, proposed by Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), by explicitly introducing fiscal policy behavior into the model (Fragetta and Kirsanova, 2010 and Çebi, 2011). The model is calibrated using quarterly data for Egypt on key macroeconomic variables during FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4; and Bayesian methods are used in estimation.
Findings
The results show that monetary and fiscal policy instruments in Egypt contribute to economic stability through their effects on inflation, output and debt stock. The monetary policy Taylor rule estimates reveal that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) attaches significant importance to anti-inflationary policy and (to a lesser extent) to output targeting but responds weakly to nominal exchange rate variations. CBE decisions are significantly influenced by interest rate smoothing. Egyptian fiscal policy has an important role in output and government debt stabilization. Additionally, the fiscal authority chooses pro-cyclical government spending and counter-cyclical tax policies for output stabilization. Again, past values of the fiscal instruments are influential in the evolution of the future fiscal policy-making process.
Originality/value
A few studies have examined the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Egypt within a unified framework. The presented paper integrates the monetary and fiscal policy analysis within a unified dynamic general equilibrium open economy rational expectations framework. Without such a framework, it would not be easy to jointly analyze monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms for output, inflation and debt. Also, it would be neither possible to contrast the outcome of monetary and fiscal authorities commitment to a simple Taylor instrument rule vis-à-vis optimal policy outcomes nor to assess the behavior of monetary and fiscal agents in macroeconomic stability in context of an active/passive policy decisions framework.
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