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Assess and compare scarring effects of unemployment in Germany to other countries and to consider firm heterogeneity.

The author uses linked employer-employee data to analyze the effect of unemployment and its duration on future wages in Germany. Using administrative data on workers and firms in Germany and considering registered and unregistered unemployment episodes, the results show long-lasting wage losses caused by unemployment incidences. Furthermore, the estimations indicate that unemployment duration as well as selectivity into firms paying lower wages is of particular relevance for the explanation of wage penalties of re-employed workers.

Unemployment causes massive and persistent wage declines in the future, which depend on the unemployment duration. Furthermore, reduced options of unemployed workers and selectivity in firms contribute to a large part of unemployment scarring.

Findings are relevant for current debates on unemployment and can help design measures to avoid huge costs of unemployment.

This paper analyses long-term unemployment scarring by considering not only unemployment duration but also selectivity in firms and its effect on the scarring effect.

It is increasingly important to study labour market outcomes for people who are not in employment, education, or training (NEET). Where most studies focus solely on young people, the purpose of this paper is to include both younger and older NEETs to find out if there is any long-term scarring effect, and if the effect is different between these two groups.

This study uses a twin-based estimation method for the first time to measure the long-term effect of economic inactivity on income. The analysis is based on biological twins, in order to control for individuals’ unobservable heterogeneity. It is assumed that twins are similar to each other and the only unobservable heterogeneity is at the family level. Register-based data from Statistics Sweden is used.

The result indicates a significant negative income effect for those who have been in NEET, and is larger for those who have been in NEET for several consecutive periods of time. Individuals who were in NEET during 2001-2003 had on average 62 per cent lower income compared with their twin in 2011. The corresponding number for individuals who were in NEET for just one period was 33 per cent. Hence, time in NEET reduces income. The results show that the long-term scarring effect is not affected by age.

This study utilises for the first time a twin-based estimation method to measure the long-term effect of inactivity. Most studies focus solely on young people, but the authors also include an older group of people.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate educational mismatch and its interrelationships with unemployment duration.

The authors study unemployment histories of Italian workers using dependent competing risk models. The authors evaluate the impact of overeducation on wage using propensity score and treatment models.

The authors show that overeducated have longer unemployment spells than their well-matched peers. This evidence implies that when assessing the impact of overeducation on wages, the duration of joblessness should be taken into account to evaluate possible additional unemployment scarring effects. The authors show that when controlling for unemployment spell duration the wage effect of overeducation significantly increases of about 7 percent. This result is supported by improvements in the sensitivity analysis.

The findings are consistent with an interpretation of educational mismatch as a penalizing phenomenon in the individuals’ working life associated with long-term unemployment.

Research on job precarity and job instability have largely neglected the labor market trajectories in which these employment and non-employment situations are experienced. This study addresses the mechanisms of volatility and precarity in observed work histories of labor market entrants using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth of 1997. Several ideal-typical post-education pathways are modeled for respondents entering the labor force between 1997 and 2010, with varying indicators and degrees of precarity. A series of predictive models indicate that women, racial-ethnic minorities, and lower social class labor market entrants are significantly more likely to be exposed to the most precarious early careers. Moreover, leaving the educational system with a completed associate’s, bachelor’s, or post-graduate degree is protective of experiencing the most unstable types of career pattern. While adjusting for these individual-level background and education variables, the findings also reveal a form of “scarring” as regional unemployment level is a significant macro-economic predictor of experiencing a more hostile and turbulent early career. These pathways lead to considerable earnings penalties 5 years after labor market entry.

The purpose of this paper is to focus on two welfare state regimes with differing degrees of de‐familialisation strategies, Germany and Sweden, to study whether and how women's career interruptions influence their labour market prospects. By comparing women with continuous careers to those with discontinuous careers due to: parental leave or homemaking; unemployment; or other reasons, the authors explore the support for the skill depreciation hypothesis and signalling theory. Depending on the type of welfare state regime, the authors expect women to be subject to varying degrees of career punishment for time spent out of the labour market.

Cox proportional hazard regression models of the transition rate of an upward or downward occupational move among women in the labour market were estimated.

Focusing on upward career moves, the results show no significant relationship between a career interruption and upward occupational moves in Germany. In Sweden, the longer the accumulated duration of family leave, the lower the transition rate to an upward move. Overall occupational mobility is higher in Sweden, and in a policy regime where almost all women work, extended leaves may have a more negative effect on career prospects than in Germany, where many mothers drop out of the labour force altogether. In Germany, on the other hand, the authors find traces of unemployment to be scarring, as the risk of downward moves increases with increased unemployment experience.

The paper explores the impact of policies in shaping women's career trajectories and critically examines the often‐cited skill depreciation hypothesis.

The purpose of this paper is to explore whether single and married female job candidates’ un/employment histories differentially affect their chances of obtaining interviews through China’s internet job boards, and to consider whether firms’ discrimination against, and/or preference for, candidates who are un/employed vary with the duration of unemployment spells.

Resumes of fictitious applicants are carefully crafted in terms of realistic work histories and educational backgrounds. Candidates’ experiences of unemployment and the revelation of their marital status are controlled. Over 7,000 applications are submitted to real job postings. Callbacks are carefully tracked and recorded. Linear probability models are employed to assess the roles of particular characteristics.

The marital status of female candidates affects how recruiters screen their applications. While current spells of unemployment, whether short or long term, significantly reduce married women’s chances of obtaining job interviews in the Chinese context, they strongly increase the likelihood that single women will be invited for interviews. Chinese firms appear to “forgive” long-term gaps in women’s employment histories as long as those gaps are followed by subsequent employment.

This paper is the first to explore how marital status affects the ways that firms, when hiring, interpret spells of unemployment in candidates’ work histories. It is also the first to explore the effects of both marital status and unemployment spells in hiring in the context of China’s dynamic internet job board labor market.

The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of unemployment on coronary heart diseases (CHD) in Italy on a sample of male manual workers in the private sector.

The authors investigate the association between CHD and different unemployment experiences (ever unemployed; short, mid and long cumulative unemployment), exploiting a large Italian administrative database on careers and health. The study design is based on the balancing of individuals' characteristics during a 12-year pre-treatment period; the measurement of unemployment occurrence during a seven-year treatment period; the observation of CHD occurrence during a five-year follow up. The workers characteristics and the probability of receiving the treatment are balanced by means of propensity score matching. Standard diagnostics on the balancing assumption are discussed and satisfied, while the robustness to violations of the unconfoundedness assumption is evaluated by a simulation-based sensitivity analysis.

The authors find a significant increase of CHD probability was found among workers who experience more than three years of unemployment (relative risks (RR)=1.91, p<0.1), and among those who exit unemployment starting a self-employment activity (RR=1.70, p<0.1). Using different selections of the study population, a clear pattern emerges: the healthier and more labour market attached are workers during pre-treatment, the greater is the negative impact of long-term unemployment on health (RR=2.79, p<0.01).

The very large representative sample (n=69,937) and the deep longitudinal dimension of the data (1985-2008) allowed the authors to minimize the risks of health selection and unemployment misclassification. Moreover, the adopted definition of unemployment corrected some undercoverage and misclassification issues that affect studies based on a purely administrative definition and that treat unemployment as a unique career event disregarding the duration of the experience.

The authors’ goal in this paper is to study if there are long-run effects on the wages of those workers who entered the labour market overeducated but who have, over time, been able to overcome this situation by obtaining a job for which they are correctly matched.

This study universe is constituted by workers entering the labour market with a university degree between 2004 and 2012. The age range of these individuals is between 22 and 35 years old. With the data of the 8,359 selected individuals, the authors have constructed a balanced panel covering the period 2013–2017. This methodology is developed in two steps. First, the authors estimate a wage equation with the traditional variables and, second, the authors use the estimated coefficients of these variables to predict the wage paths of a representative individual in each group.

The main result the authors obtain indicates that the wages of those who manage to overcome an initial situation of overeducation do converge but very slowly to the respective wages of those others that entered the labour market correctly matched from the beginning. The authors consider this result to point towards the existence of scarring effects in wages induced by an initial situation of overeducation. The authors also present evidence, beyond education, about the influence that the occupational characteristics that a worker has on wages.

The factors that can influence the catching-up of wages are multiple, and it is not feasible to test all of them empirically. Therefore, the wage convergence process the authors present may also be influenced by other variables for which the authors do not have information.

This paper contributes to different branches of the labour market. First, the authors present new evidence within the literature dealing with the so-called scarring effects on wages related to the conditions entering the labour market. Secondly, this study’s results provide a new argument that complements those developed so far that explain a reduction in the wage skill premium detected among young graduates in Spain. Finally, this paper contributes to advancing research about the effects that overeducation has on wages.

The question the authors are attempting to answer in this paper can be formulated in the following terms: when a worker manages to overcome an initial situation of overeducation, what happens to his/her wage? Will it adjust quickly to the new working situation, or will we observe a slow convergence to the wages of workers with an employment history without overeducation situations? To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this topic has not yet been studied. Researchers have mostly focused their attention on comparing the wages of overeducated workers with the wages of those who are correctly matched. In this case, the authors compare the wages of correctly matched workers, but with the difference that some were initially overeducated and others were not.

The purpose of this paper is to study the long‐term effects of policy measures for displaced workers. The focus is on the individuals affected by the closure of the Uddevalla Shipyard in western Sweden in 1985 and the cutbacks at the LKAB mines in northern Sweden in 1983.

These workers not only experienced job loss, but were also target groups for extraordinary labour market policies. Using register data from Statistics Sweden (labour market status, earnings, education etc.), the authors follow those affected until 1999, comparing their experiences with the development of a large sample of other workers who lost their jobs because of plant closures in 1987‐1988 but who did not receive extraordinary measures.

Estimations of the net effect of the extraordinary measures find that they did have positive long‐term effects for the displaced shipyard workers and miners. They have higher employment, not higher unemployment, and higher earnings than the comparison group.

The authors are not aware of any previous research on the effects of labour market policy addressing displacement in the long term.

The Italian school-to-work transition (STWT) is astonishingly slow and long in comparison to the other EU countries. We analyze its determinants comparing the Italian case with Austria, Poland and the UK.

The analysis is based on a Cox survival model with proportional hazard. The smoothed hazard estimates allow us to identify the nonlinear path of the hazard function.

The authors reckon that the actual length of the transition to a stable job is around 30 months in Italy. Conversely, it is less than one year in the other countries. Women are particularly penalized, despite being on average more educated than men. Tertiary or vocational education at high secondary school strongly increases the hazard rate to a regular job. The smoothed hazard estimates suggest positive duration dependence at the beginning of the transition and slightly negative thereafter.

Stimulating economic growth and investing in education and training are important pre-conditions for shortening the transition.

Despite the duration of the STWT is one of the most important indicators to measure the efficiency of the STWT, it is not easy to measure. The authors build on their previous research work on this topic, but relaxing the assumption of a monotonic hazard rate and using the flexible baseline hazard approach to test for the existence of nonlinear duration dependence. Furthermore, they extend the analysis by including student-workers who attended a vocational path of education, in order to detect its effectiveness in allowing young people finding a job sooner.