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The purpose of this paper is to provide a decision support model for the early diagnosis of housing bubbles in the UK during the maturity process of the phenomenon.

The development process of the model is divided into four stages. These stages are driven by the normal distribution theorem coupled with the case study approach. The application of normal distribution theory is allowed through the usage of several parametric tools. The case studies tested in this research include the last two UK housing bubbles, 1986 to 1989 and 2001/2002 to 2007. The central hypothesis of the model is that during housing bubbles, all speculative activities of market participants follow an approximate synchronisation, and therefore, an irrational, synchronous and periodic increase on a wide range of relevant variables must occur to anticipate the bubble component. An empirical application of the model is conducted on UK housing market data over the period of 1983-2011.

The new approach successfully identifies the well-known UK historical bubble episodes over the period of 1983-2011. The study further determines that for uncovering housing bubbles in the UK, house price changes have the same weight with the debt–burden ratio when their velocity is positive. Finally, the application of this model has led us to conclude that the model’s outputs fluctuate approximately in line with phases of the UK real estate cycle.

This paper proposes a new measure for studying the presence of housing bubbles. This measure is not simply an ex post detection technique but dating algorithms that use data only up to the point of analysis for an on-going bubble assessment, giving an early warning diagnostic that can assist market participants and regulators in market monitoring.

While there is vast research on expatriate adjustment, it is still known very little on how self-initiated expatriates (SIEs) in particular might cope with identity conflicts and how they engage with identity work. What is more, although there is some literature on the existence of expatriate bubbles, this does not cover how these bubbles might impact identity work. The purpose of this paper is to explore identity work that is taking place within expatriate bubbles and thus advance our knowledge on both expatriate bubbles and expatriate adjustment.

The study reports on the analysis of in-depth, semi-structured interview data collected from 37 self-initiated expatriate engineers from Greece, Spain and Italy, currently residing in Bristol, UK.

Previous studies have argued that expatriate bubbles impede adjustment. The study analysis, however, shows that expatriate bubbles can be not only a powerful mechanism for coping with foreignness and strengthening their sense of belonging but also act as identity workspaces where SIEs engaged with identity work and navigated identity conflicts.

The present study addresses two empirical gaps: the paucity of literature on the identity work that self-initiated expatriates engage with and the paucity studies on self-initiated expatriate engineers. The study also has a theoretical contribution as, drawing upon a Goffmanian dramaturgical framework sheds light on the back regions of performance taking place within expatriate bubbles. Thus, showing how SIEs relax but also rehearse their performances in order to reduce any identity gaps triggered by the new organisational and national context.

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, the authors investigate the main drivers of house prices in the Hong Kong housing market. Second, further research is undertaken to confirm the existence of house price overvaluation, which has driven the market into a bubble episode.

First, the authors propose a theoretical framework to identify the fundamentals of the market. In the second step, they decompose house prices into fundamentals, frictions and bubble episodes for a better understanding of the evolution of house prices during the period 1996(Q3)-2013(Q3).

The results of this paper suggest an eventual possible correction of up to 46 per cent of house prices with respect to their 2013(Q3) level.

The originality of this paper is to use the procedure developed by Glindro and Delloro (2010) to analyse the Hong Kong housing market. The contribution of this paper also modifies the original Glindro and Delloro’s (2010) approach by including the Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003) filter to decompose house prices.

Migration of the Turkish new middle-class – high-skilled, well-educated, young professionals – has been growing in recent years. This paper explores their migration experience and discusses the role of physical and virtual bubbles in the formation of transnational communities and processes of adjustment to a new place.

This paper is based on a qualitative inquiry collecting data via semi-structured interviews with 18 London-based Turkish migrants and a digital ethnographic study of three Facebook groups that bring together the Turkish migrant community in Richmond, London.

Findings indicate that the migration of the new middle class differs conceptually from existing typologies. The paper proposes the concept of “dissonant harmony-seekers” and elaborates on their interactions to demonstrate that, in the Internet age, the traditional image of migrants living in isolated localised bubbles is no longer accurate. Findings also indicate a pragmatic and functional engagement with the bubbles, with migrants sporadically interacting with the bubbles to meet their individual needs in information, education and employment. 

This paper contributes to the literature with the concept of dissonant harmony-seekers, which will gain more visibility in a world where the trend of democratic decline and rising authoritarianism will motivate a migratory move for people who confront a moral dissociation from the civil order in their homeland. The engagement of dissonant harmony-seekers with migrant communities challenges the conventional thinking that social identity is central to creating and maintaining bubbles. The other contribution of the paper to the literature is the metaphor of “foam” to capture the ephemeral and fugacious nature of the dynamics of migrant communities and practices.

The last decades have experienced increasingly integrated global political and economic dynamics ranging especially from the influence of exchange rates and trade amid other sources of uncertainties. The purpose of this study is to examine the exchange rate dynamics of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) and the Republic of Turkey.

Given this perceived global dynamics, the current study examined the BRICS countries and the Republic of Turkey's exchange rate dynamics by using the United States (US) monthly dollar exchange rate data between January 2002 and August 2019. The price bubble which is expressed as exceeding the real value of assets' prices which is observably caused by speculative movements is investigated by using the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) approaches.

Accordingly, the GSADF test results opined that there are price bubbles in the dollar exchange rate of other countries except for the United States Dollar (USD)/Indian Rupee (INR) exchange rate. As the related countries are classified as developing countries in terms of their structure, they are also expectedly the subject of speculative exchange rate movements. Speculative movements in exchange rates may cause serious problems in national economies.

Thus, the current study provides a policy framework to the BRICS countries and the Republic of Turkey.

This paper aims to discuss multiple uses of the concept of “bubble” as a metaphor to refer to different experiences of foreign working communities and suggests a more flexible and comprehensive approach.

Based on ethnographic fieldwork conducted at different locations, the authors propose changing the use of the bubble metaphor from an analogy of living in isolation to a way of conceptualising the changing contexts and characteristics that impact the porosity and permeability of communities.

The paper suggests that when using the metaphor as a concept, the following considerations need to be taken into account: (1) the conventional thinking that “expat-bubbles” are isolated places, (2) any simplistic notion that different internationally mobile workers will be less or more immersed in the local community and (3) the use of the bubble metaphor without a careful delineation and reference to its permeability and porosity.

The paper helps to visualise a different dimension of the traditional taken-for-granted representation of the bubble. The bubble emerges as a rich analogical concept not to explain binomial representations of integration-separation. Rather than a simple “open” or “closed”, bubbles became more or less porous and permeable depending on the experiences of foreign working communities.

This paper aims to explore principal drivers affecting prices in the Australian housing market, aiming to detect the presence of housing bubbles within it. The data set analyzed covers the past two decades, thereby including the period of the most recent housing boom between 2012 and 2015.

The paper describes the application of combined enhanced rigorous econometric frameworks, such as ordinary least square (OLS), Granger causality and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework, to provide an in-depth understanding of house price dynamics and bubbles in Australia.

The empirical results presented reveal that Australian house prices are driven primarily by four key factors: mortgage interest rates, consumer sentiment, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 stock market index and unemployment rates. It finds that these four key drivers have long-term equilibrium in relation to house prices, and any short-term disequilibrium always self-corrects over the long term because of economic forces. The existence of long-term equilibrium in the housing market suggests it is unlikely to be in a bubble (Diba and Grossman, 1988; Flood and Hodrick, 1986).

The foremost contribution of this paper is that it is the first rigorous study of housing bubbles in Australia at the national level. Additionally, the data set renders the study of particular interest because it incorporates an analysis of the most recent housing boom (2012-2015). The policy implications from the study arise from the discussion of how best to balance monetary policy, fiscal policy and macroeconomic policy to optimize the steady and stable growth of the Australian housing market, and from its reconsideration of affordability schemes and related policies designed to incentivize construction and the involvement of complementary industries associated with property.

This paper is concerned with a numerical study on evolution of a deformed bubble and propagation of the fields around the bubble. The model uses a numerical procedure with the direct‐predictor method and the alternating dependent variables (ADV) skill developed by Li and Yan. The aim of this paper is to study the characteristics of interfacial transport for a deformed inviscid bubble rising in a quiescent hot or bi‐solution liquid. The effects of the bubble deformation on temperature and concentration fields are calculated and simulated. The results demonstrate that the current numerical procedure is effective for solving such unsteady deformation problems of bubble accompanied with heat and mass transfer.

This paper aims to develop a numerical method for analysing the time‐dependent conjugate heat and fluid flows inside and around single bubbles rising in a hot liquid.

The procedure combines the moving mesh method for flows in time‐dependent geometries and the zoned calculation algorithm for conjugate viscous flows. A moving axisymmetric boundary‐fitted mesh is used to track the deformable gas‐liquid interface, while conjugate flows in both gas and liquid sides are calculated by a two‐block zoned method. The interfacial stresses are employed to calculate the velocity value and to decide the time‐dependent bubble shape simultaneously. Governing equations for the rising velocity and acceleration of the bubble are derived according to the forces acting on the bubble.

A calculating procedure for time‐dependent conjugate heat and fluid flows inside and around a rising single bubble has been developed. The algorithm has been verified, and can be employed for further analysing heat, mass and momentum transfer phenomena and their relevant mechanisms.

The paper developed a method to obtain high fidelity results for the heat and fluid flow details in the vicinity of a time‐dependent moderately deformable rising bubble; the physically zero‐thickness of a gas‐liquid interface is guaranteed. The governing equations for the time‐dependent rising velocity and acceleration are derived.

The purpose of this study is to determine the Turkish housing price and rent dynamics among seven big cities with a unique monthly data set over 2003–2019. The secondary purpose is to examine bubble dynamics within the price convergence framework through alternative tests.

The paper conducts two autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration estimates for housing prices and rents and applies conditional error correction model to investigate the long-run drivers of the Turkish housing market. The authors compare ARDL cointegration in-sample forecasts and discounted cash flow (DCF) estimates with actual prices to determine the timing, magnitude and collapse period(s) of bubbles within the price convergence framework. In particular, the generalized sup augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) approach time stamps multiple explosive price behaviors.

The ARDL results confirm the theory of investment value by addressing mortgage rates, the price-to-rent ratio and rents as the fundamental factors of house prices. The price-to-rent ratio offers a comparison mechanism among houses deciding to buy a new house in which rents increase monthly real estate investment returns, and mortgage rates act as the discount rate. One key finding is that these dynamics have a greater impact on house prices than mortgage rates. Furthermore, the ARDL, DCF and GSADF findings exhibit temporal overvaluations rather than bubble signals, implying that housing price appreciations, including explosive behaviors, are consistent with fundamental advances.

This paper is considered to be innovative in determining housing market dynamics through two different ARDL estimates for the Turkish housing price index and rents in real terms as dependent variables. The authors compare the boom and collapse periods of the real housing price index and its fundamentals via the GSADF test. A final key feature of this research is its extensive data set, with 11 different regressors between 2003 and 2019.