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1 – 10 of 262Berna Kaçar and Huriye Gonca Diler
Introduction: Monetary policy resolutions issued by central banks play effective role in economy when accompanied with interest variable. In Keynesian approach to finance…
Abstract
Introduction: Monetary policy resolutions issued by central banks play effective role in economy when accompanied with interest variable. In Keynesian approach to finance, interest is treated as the main determinant underlying financial policy resolutions. Thus interest is a pivotal factor in monetary transmission mechanism. Tight monetary policy practices, essentially decreasing money supply, eventually lead to a slump in investments, total demand and national income due to the increase in real interest rates.
Objective: The aim of this study is to determine what type of effects do monetary policy practitioner in Turkey have on macroeconomic variables via the interest channel of monetary transmission mechanism.
Methodology: Based on this objective, variables that could help in unveiling CBT overnight interest rates, direct fixed capital investment (GSSO), real gross domestic product (RGDP), industry production index (SUE) and domestic producer price index (YUFE) variables and that could explain monetary functions of transmission mechanism’s interest channel were selected. For the variables constituting the research topic, collected data belong the period of 2003Q1–2018Q3.
Findings: In the study relation between the variables has been analyzed under two parts via harnessing Toda–Yamamoto casualty test. In the first part, results of Toda–Yamamoto causality test from RGDP, GSSO and interest rate (FO) variables have been presented. The results manifest that interest channel directly affects direct fixed capital investment and RGDP. Interest channel was found to be effective on these variables of the analysis. In the second part, Toda–Yamamoto causality test was harnessed for SUE, YUFE and FO variables. Interest channel did not provide a result that affected YUFE and SUE.
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The purpose of this paper is to analyze cointegration and causality relationships between spot and futures markets in Turkish foreign‐exchange markets.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyze cointegration and causality relationships between spot and futures markets in Turkish foreign‐exchange markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The research employs Bounds cointegration test and Toda‐Yamamoto causality test to detect a possible risk transmission between spot and futures markets. Time series of Turkish spot and futures foreign‐exchange markets from January 2, 2006 to March 25, 2008 on a daily basis are used for empirical analysis.
Findings
The empirical tests suggest that there is unidirectional causality running from future exchange‐rate market to spot market implying that foreign‐exchange markets have informational efficiency in Turkey.
Originality/value
The paper has originality in both employing Bounds test and Toda‐Yamamoto test to examine the relationship between spots and derivative markets, and in being one of the first empirical papers examining Turkish futures markets. In addition, the paper presents a guide on how Bounds and Toda‐Yamamoto tests can be applied to detect interactions among markets without data stationarity.
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Masoud Mohammed Albiman, Najat Nassor Suleiman and Hamad Omar Baka
The purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic relationship that exists between energy consumption, environmental pollution and per capita economic growth in Tanzania…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic relationship that exists between energy consumption, environmental pollution and per capita economic growth in Tanzania. The energy consumption is represented by electricity usage in kilowatt hours (kWh) per capita, while environmental pollution is represented by carbon emission per metric tons and economic growth by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.
Design/methodology/approach
This investigation is made based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve using time series annual data from 1975 to 2013 by applying the more robust causality technique of Toda and Yamamoto non-Causality test (1995), Impulse response and Variance Decomposition, Augumented and Dickey–Fueller test and Philips and Perron Test of unit root tests.
Findings
Economic growth rate (LGDP) and energy consumption per capita (LENGY), both being unidirectional, cause environmental pollution through carbon emission (LCO2) in Tanzania. Interestingly, after using impulse response, a significant and positive economic growth (GDP per capita) was found due to shocks from electricity per capita (energy consumption) and carbon emission (LCO2) with time. The Variance Decomposition suggested that the percentage of the variations due to shocks or innovations of economic growth (LGDP) and energy consumption (LENGY) to carbon emission is very high and significant, accounting to 46 and 41 per cent, respectively, in 10 years to come.
Research limitations/implications
The study recommends that, in the future, the relationship be examined using super-exogeneity causality tests that takes into consideration the changes in policy or regime in contrast to Toda and Yamamoto. Furthermore, the addition of other variables such as fixed capital formation and labor force, which were not considered in this study, may result in strong correlation.
Practical implications
The results imply that the government of Tanzania can adopt environment conservation and energy saving policies without affecting its economic growth. As a matter of fact, to put a stop to persistent environmental pollution in Tanzania, the energy saving policy should be put in place rather quickly. It is imperative that the government implements policies and strategies that ensure continuous economic growth without forsaking the environment.
Originality/value
Despite the increase in carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Tanzania since 2000, to date, no previous work has been done to investigate their multivariate relationship. This is the first study that uses the Toda and Yamamoto non-Causality test, Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition Analysis to investigate a trivariate relationship of the variables mentioned above.
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Ming-Te Lee, Chyi Lin Lee, Ming-Long Lee and Chien-Ya Liao
The purpose of this study is to examine the linkages between Australian house prices and stock prices under the Toda and Yamamoto test framework. Specifically, it investigated…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine the linkages between Australian house prices and stock prices under the Toda and Yamamoto test framework. Specifically, it investigated whether there is a capital switching effect between house prices and stock prices.
Design/methodology/approach
This study examined the linkages between house prices and stock prices under the Toda and Yamamoto test framework. To accommodate the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC), a sub-period analysis was undertaken. To assess the impact of investor structure, the tests were also performed for small cap stocks and large cap stocks individually.
Findings
The empirical results reveal a negative lead–lag relationship between house prices and stock prices in Australia, suggesting the existence of capital switching activities between housing and stocks. The impact of the GFC on the lead–lag relationship between house prices and stock prices is also documented. Before the crisis, a causality transmission was running from house prices to stock prices, whilst stock prices appeared to lead house prices after the crisis. The capital switching activities between housing and stocks are more evident for small cap stocks.
Originality/value
This study is the first to examine the linkages between house prices and stock prices under the Toda and Yamamoto test framework. This is the first study to explore the impacts of the GFC on the lead–lag relationship between the two asset prices under the capital switching framework. This study is also the first to provide empirical evidence regarding the existence of capital switching activities between housing and stocks. In addition, the impact of investor structure on the interrelationship between the two asset prices is examined for the first time under the capital switching framework.
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Andriansyah Andriansyah and George Messinis
The purpose of this paper is to develop a new framework to test the hypothesis that portfolio model predicts a negative correlation between stock prices and exchange rates in a…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to develop a new framework to test the hypothesis that portfolio model predicts a negative correlation between stock prices and exchange rates in a trivariate transmission channel for foreign portfolio equity investment.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper utilizes panel data for eight economies to extend the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) Granger non-causality test of heterogeneous panels to a trivariate model by integrating the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) approach to Granger causality.
Findings
The evidence suggests that stock prices Granger-cause exchange rates and portfolio equity flows Granger-cause exchange rates. However, the overall panel evidence casts doubt on the explicit trivariate model of portfolio balance model. The study shows that Indonesia may be the only case where stock prices affect exchange rates through portfolio equity flows.
Research limitations/implications
The proposed test does not account for potential asymmetries or structural shifts associated with the crisis period. To isolate the impact of the Asian Financial crisis, this paper rather splits the sample period into two sub-periods: pre- and post-crises. The sample period and countries are also limited due to the use of the balance of payment statistics.
Practical implications
The study casts doubt on the maintained hypothesis of a trivariate transmission channel, as posited by the portfolio model. Policy makers of an economy may integrate capital market and fiscal policies in order to maintain stable exchange rate.
Originality/value
This paper integrates a portfolio equity inflow variable into a single framework with stock price and exchange rate variables. It extends the Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) bivariate stationary Granger non-causality test in heterogeneous panels to a trivariate setting in the framework of Toda and Yamamoto (1995).
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The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the extent to which volatility associated with corporate performance could be attributed to specific adverse macroeconomic…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the extent to which volatility associated with corporate performance could be attributed to specific adverse macroeconomic conditions in a bivariate causality analysis.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses the Toda–Yamamoto Wald test approach to Granger causality analysis in verifying significant causal interactions if any, between corporate performance volatility and seven macroeconomic conditions or variables.
Findings
This study finds that economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have bidirectional causal interaction with corporate performance volatility. In addition, estimated results further suggest significant unidirectional causal interaction between corporate performance volatility and inflation expectations, exchange rate volatility, inflation and inflation uncertainty, with direction of causality running from the macroeconomic variables toward corporate performance volatility. This study, however, found no significant causal interaction between corporate performance volatility and recessionary probability or likelihood of recession.
Practical implications
This study’s conclusions could have significant and critical policy implications for key corporate policymakers responsible for corporate performance strategy. Various causal interactions identified could inform policy framework and, subsequently, strategies geared toward minimizing volatility associated with performance during episodes of any of the various macroeconomic conditions examined in this study.
Originality/value
The uniqueness of this study stems from its focus on corporate performance volatility instead of corporate performance and potential causal interactions it might have with key adverse macroeconomic conditions, some of which have not been examined in previous studies according to reviewed literature.
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The “resource curse phenomenon” has received a lot of attention from researchers; however, there has not been any sound explanation to back this phenomenon since the main reason…
Abstract
Purpose
The “resource curse phenomenon” has received a lot of attention from researchers; however, there has not been any sound explanation to back this phenomenon since the main reason why natural resource should restrain economic growth instead of boosting economic growth remains unanswered. This paper contributes to literature on “resource curse hypothesis” by examining the role of government effectiveness in influencing the impact of gas resource rent on economic growth.
Design/methodology/approach
The study adopted the Cobb-Douglass production and incorporated gas resource rent, institutional quality (government effectiveness), inflation and exchange rate as additional variables that influences total output (gross domestic product). The author estimated the empirical form of the Cobb-Douglass production using autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Toda and Yamamoto (1995) as the main estimation strategies while other time series approaches were used as a robustness check.
Findings
The estimates from the ARDL short-run and the long-run dynamics suggest that the direct impact of gas resource rent on economic growth was positive but not statistically significant. At the same time, the interacting of gas resource rent and government effectiveness showed a positive and statistically significant effect of nearly 0.4123 and 0.8724 on economic growth in the long run and short run, respectively. The results from the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) also indicated that economic growth has a strong influence on gas resource rent while government effectiveness drives economic growth and not vice versa.
Research limitations/implications
The findings from this study imply that government effectiveness plays a crucial role in averting the “resource curse phenomenon”. Hence, improving government effectiveness and efficiency through minimizing corruption among state institutions would be imperative in curbing the “resource curse phenomenon” in developing countries.
Originality/value
The influential role of government effectiveness on the relationship between gas resource rent on economic growth is examined.
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Opoku Adabor, Emmanuel Buabeng and Juliet Fosua Dunyo
While the relationship between natural resource rent and economic growth is well documented in the literature, not much robust analysis has been done to estimate the causative…
Abstract
Purpose
While the relationship between natural resource rent and economic growth is well documented in the literature, not much robust analysis has been done to estimate the causative relationship between oil resource rent and economic growth in Ghana. This might be due to the fact that commercial production of crude oil started not long ago in Ghana. This paper aims to examine the causal relationship between oil resource rent and economic growth for the period of 2011 to 2020 in Ghana.
Design/methodology/approach
The study incorporates economic growth as a function of oil resource rent, non-oil revenue, foreign direct investment, capital and interest rate in a Cobb–Douglass production function/model. The study used four different estimation strategies including the autoregressive distributed lags model, Toda–Yamamoto test approach, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model and nonlinear Granger causality.
Findings
The main finding revealed that 1% increase in oil resource rent generates 0.84% increase in economic growth of Ghana in the long run. Contrary, the authors find an insignificant positive effect of oil resource rent on economic growth of Ghana in the short run for the period under study. The result from the Toda–Yamamoto test approach also showed a unidirectional causality running from oil resource rent to economic growth of Ghana, providing evidence in support of the resource blessing hypothesis in Ghana. The results are robust to two different alternative estimation strategies.
Originality/value
The causal relationship between crude oil resource rent and economic growth is examined.
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H. Aydin Okuyan, Alper Ozun and Erman Erbaykal
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in developing countries. Under this aim, the co‐integration relationship…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in developing countries. Under this aim, the co‐integration relationship between trade openness and economic growth of 17 developing countries is examined without relying on data stationarity.
Design/methodology/approach
The co‐integration relationship between trade openness and economic growth is analyzed by Bounds testing approach developed by Pesaran et al. In addition to this, the causality relationship is tested by causality analysis developed by Toda and Yamamoto.
Findings
According to the Bounds test results, co‐integration relationship has been detected for six countries and long‐term coefficients among the variables have been found positive and statistically significant. According to the Toda and Yamamoto causality analysis, causality has been detected for eight countries. In four of these, the direction of causality is from trade openness to economic growth and in the other four, vice versa.
Originality/value
The methodology employed provides an alternative framework for examining relationship among economic variables. The paper shows how to create co‐integration and causality tests without relying on data stationarity, which is a major problem in time series of economic variables. On the empirical side, it adds new empirical results into the literature in the name of identification of relationship between trade openness and economic growth in developing countries.
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Frederik Kunze, Tobias Basse, Miguel Rodriguez Gonzalez and Günter Vornholz
In the current low-interest market environment, more and more asset managers have started to consider to invest in property markets. To implement adequate and forward-looking risk…
Abstract
Purpose
In the current low-interest market environment, more and more asset managers have started to consider to invest in property markets. To implement adequate and forward-looking risk management procedures, this market should be analyzed in more detail. Therefore, this study aims to examine the housing market data from the UK. More specifically, sentiment data and house prices are examined, using techniques of time-series econometrics suggested by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The monthly data used in this study is the RICS Housing Market Survey and the Nationwide House Price Index – covering the period from January 2000 to December 2018. Furthermore, the authors also analyze the stability of the implemented Granger causality tests. In sum, the authors found clear empirical evidence for unidirectional Granger causality from sentiment indicator to the house prices index. Consequently, the sentiment indicator can help to forecast property prices in the UK.
Design/methodology/approach
By investigating sentiment data for house prices using techniques of time-series econometrics (more specifically the procedure suggested by Toda and Yamamoto, 1995), the research question whether sentiment indicators can be helpful to predict property prices in the UK is analyzed empirically.
Findings
The empirical results show that the RICS Housing Market Survey can help to predict the house prices in the UK.
Practical implications
Given these findings, the information provided by property market sentiment indicators certainly should be used in a forward-looking early warning system for house prices in the UK.
Originality/value
To authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that uses the procedure suggested by Toda and Yamaoto to search for suitable early warning indicators for investors in UK real estate assets.
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