Econometric Analysis for the Period Between 2003 and 2018 as Regards the Functioning of Interest Channel of Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Turkey

Abstract

Introduction: Monetary policy resolutions issued by central banks play effective role in economy when accompanied with interest variable. In Keynesian approach to finance, interest is treated as the main determinant underlying financial policy resolutions. Thus interest is a pivotal factor in monetary transmission mechanism. Tight monetary policy practices, essentially decreasing money supply, eventually lead to a slump in investments, total demand and national income due to the increase in real interest rates.

Objective: The aim of this study is to determine what type of effects do monetary policy practitioner in Turkey have on macroeconomic variables via the interest channel of monetary transmission mechanism.

Methodology: Based on this objective, variables that could help in unveiling CBT overnight interest rates, direct fixed capital investment (GSSO), real gross domestic product (RGDP), industry production index (SUE) and domestic producer price index (YUFE) variables and that could explain monetary functions of transmission mechanism’s interest channel were selected. For the variables constituting the research topic, collected data belong the period of 2003Q1–2018Q3.

Findings: In the study relation between the variables has been analyzed under two parts via harnessing Toda–Yamamoto casualty test. In the first part, results of Toda–Yamamoto causality test from RGDP, GSSO and interest rate (FO) variables have been presented. The results manifest that interest channel directly affects direct fixed capital investment and RGDP. Interest channel was found to be effective on these variables of the analysis. In the second part, Toda–Yamamoto causality test was harnessed for SUE, YUFE and FO variables. Interest channel did not provide a result that affected YUFE and SUE.

Citation

Kaçar, B. and Diler, H.G. (2020), "Econometric Analysis for the Period Between 2003 and 2018 as Regards the Functioning of Interest Channel of Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Turkey", Özen, E. and Grima, S. (Ed.) Uncertainty and Challenges in Contemporary Economic Behaviour (Emerald Studies in Finance, Insurance, and Risk Management), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 61-75. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-80043-095-220201006