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This paper examines the information efficiency of KOSDAQ50 and KOSPI200 index futures markets. The study analyzes and compares both markets in three respects : 1) price discovery (lead-lag relationship between spot and futures markets.), 2) volatility-volume relationship, and 3) mispricings between spot and futures prices. The first, analysis shows the in the KOSPI200 market, futures price leads spot price. While spot price leads futures price in the KOSDAQ50 market. The second analysis shows that the volatility-volume relation is positive in the KOSPI200 futures market, supporting the hypothesis of mixture of distribution. In contrast, there is little relation between volume and volatility in the KOSDAQ50 futures market. This result casts doubt that the futures market price reflects information. The last analysis shows that the magnitude of mispricing becomes smaller with more volume in the KOSPI200 futures market, while it becomes larger with more volume in the KOSDAQ50 futures market. The overall results imply that the KOSDAQ50 futures market is less informationally efficient that the KOSPI200 market. The inefficiency appears due to the lack of institutional investor participation, especially securities firms, in making up the market.

Discusses the attractions of property to institutional investors. Describes the evolution of future markets from forward contracts in commodity markets and financial and stock market index futures to the current UK proposal for property index futures. Concludes that property professionals should make every effort to understand and develop the proposed market in a way which will benefit property investors most effectively.

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether futures markets play a dominant role in the price discovery process. The rate of convergence of information from one market to another is analyzed to infer the efficiency of futures as an effective hedging tool.

The paper uses a two‐regime threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) and a two‐regime threshold autoregression for six commodities. The regimes (or states) are defined around the expiration week of the futures contract.

This paper finds evidence for price discovery process happening in the futures market in five out of six commodities. However, the rate of convergence of information is slow, particularly in the non‐expiration weeks. For copper, gold and silver, the rate of convergence is almost instantaneous during the expiration week of the futures contract affirming the utility of futures contracts as an effective hedging tool. In case of chickpeas, nickel and rubber the convergence worsens during the expiration week indicating the non‐usability of futures contract for hedging.

This paper extends the framework developed by Garbade et al. by superimposing a two‐regime TVAR model to quantify the price discovery process. It is the first paper to analyze the differential impact of price discovery and convergence during expiration week (compared to non‐expiration weeks) for the Indian commodities market.

Holbrook Working (1949) discovered that the percentage change in futures prices seemed to be largelyrandom. This led Paul Samuelson (1965) to develop the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) which claims that the current spot and futures1 prices fully reflect all relevant information. Furthermore, because the future flow of information cannot be anticipated, price changes will not be serially correlated. These papers linked the notion of randomness of price changes to informational efficiency. From that point on, a major part of the empirical studies of asset markets has been the application of time series analysis to asset prices, in order to evaluate whether the price changes are random and whether futures prices reflect all available information. As the statistical tests became more sophisticated, the number of empirical studies increased and the results became more contradictory and difficult to interpret. An economic theorist can only be bemused by contemplating the empirical/econometric studies in the finance literature.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze cointegration and causality relationships between spot and futures markets in Turkish foreign‐exchange markets.

The research employs Bounds cointegration test and Toda‐Yamamoto causality test to detect a possible risk transmission between spot and futures markets. Time series of Turkish spot and futures foreign‐exchange markets from January 2, 2006 to March 25, 2008 on a daily basis are used for empirical analysis.

The empirical tests suggest that there is unidirectional causality running from future exchange‐rate market to spot market implying that foreign‐exchange markets have informational efficiency in Turkey.

The paper has originality in both employing Bounds test and Toda‐Yamamoto test to examine the relationship between spots and derivative markets, and in being one of the first empirical papers examining Turkish futures markets. In addition, the paper presents a guide on how Bounds and Toda‐Yamamoto tests can be applied to detect interactions among markets without data stationarity.

This study explores the price linkage between the Chinese commodity futures market and other dominant futures markets, and examines the forces behind the price linkages. The contribution by the trading hour innovations in the United States (or United Kingdom) market to the overnight price changes in the Chinese market is larger in scale than the contribution by the daytime information from the Chinese market to the overnight returns of the corresponding US (or UK) market. Several futures have significant interactions of the domestic and foreign factors in the price linkages while the Chinese domestic factors explain better the global market price linkage in some futures (aluminum, gold, and corn), demonstrating the leading role of the Chinese futures markets in these world markets.

The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the possible consequences of ban on futures trading of agriculture commodities in India by examining three critical issues: first, the author explores whether price discovery dominance changes between futures and spot in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phase both in the long run and short run. Second, the author examines the impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading on its underlying spot volatility for five sample cases of agriculture commodities (Wheat, Sugar, Soya Refined Oil, Rubber and Chana) using both parametric and non-parametric tests. Third, the author revisits the destabilization hypothesis in the light of ban on futures trading by examining the impact of unexpected component of liquidity of futures on spot volatility.

The author uses widely adopted methodology of co-integration to examine long-run relationship between spot and futures, while the short-run relationship is investigated using vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality to test price discovery in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases. The second objective is explored using a combination of parametric and non-parametric tests such as Welch one-way ANOVA and Kruskal–Wallis test, respectively, to gauge the impact of ban on futures trading on spot volatility along with post hoc tests to investigate pairwise comparison of spot volatility among three phases (pre-ban, ban and post-relaunch) using Dunn Test. In addition, extensive robustness test is undertaken by adopting augmented E-GARCH model to ascertain the impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading on spot volatility. The third objective is investigated using Granger causality test between spot volatility and unexpected component of liquidity of futures estimated using Hodrick and Prescott (HP) filter to re-visit the destabilization hypothesis.

The author found extensive evidence for the dominance of futures market in the price discovery of agriculture commodities both in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases in India. The ban on futures trading is found to have a destabilizing impact on spot volatility as evident from the findings of Wheat, Sugar and Rubber. In addition, it is observed that spot volatility was highest during the ban phase as compared to the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases for all four commodities barring Chana. The author found that destabilisation hypothesis holds true during the pre ban phase, while weakening of destabilization hypothesis is observed in the post-relaunch phase as unexpected futures liquidity has no role in driving the spot volatility.

This study is a novel attempt to empirically examine the potential impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading of agriculture commodities on two key market quality dimensions – price discovery and spot volatility. In addition, destabilization hypothesis is revisited to investigate the impact of futures trading on spot volatility during the pre-ban and post-relaunch period.

Guar Seed crop is ruling the Indian International business mainly due to its application as a drilling fluid in shale energy industry concentrated in the USA. One of the allegations against futures market is its possible role in increasing the volatility of underlying physical market prices. Suspension of guar seed futures contract in 2012 at National Commodity Derivatives Exchange of India (NCDEX)-India, has reignited the controversy and raised an alarm bell to peek into obscure world of Indian commodity derivatives market. Against the backdrop of fiasco in guar futures trading, the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether sudden surge in futures trading volume leads to increase in the volatility of spot market prices.

Guar seed spot returns volatility is modeled as a GARCH (1, 1) process. Futures trading volume and open interest are segregated into expected and unexpected components. The data are analyzed from 2004 to 2011 using Augmented GARCH model to study the contemporaneous relationship between spot volatility and unexpected futures trading activity and Granger Causality test for examining the dynamic relationship between them and ascertaining causality.

Augmented GARCH model reports positive relationship between unexpected futures trading volume (UTV) and spot returns volatility, and, Granger Causality flows from UTV to spot volatility. Therefore, when the level of futures trading volume increases unexpectedly, the volatility of spot prices increases pointing toward the destabilizing impact of futures trading. However, hedger’s activity, represented by open interest is not seen to have any causal/destabilizing impact on spot price volatility of guar seed.

The study provides empirical evidence to support the concern of regulators, genuine hedgers and other traders about the presence of excessive speculation and market manipulations perpetrated through futures market that is disturbing the underlying physical market instead of strengthening it by aiding in price discovery and risk mitigation.

There are very few studies which have empirically investigated the temporal relation between volume and volatility in Indian agricultural commodity markets. With guar seed as a special case the present study investigates statistically the impact of futures trading on spot price volatility. In light of the findings of the study, the curb imposed on guar seed futures trading in 2012 was justified.

The purpose of this paper is to understand the volatility in commodity futures and spot markets. The study starts with a few questions: first, the effect of seasonality on the volatility is studied. Thereafter, the presence of structural breaks in the variance is identified. At last the seasonality, structural shifts and spillover effects are examined together to find out their effects on volatility.

The methodology heavily employs econometric tools and techniques. The monthly seasonal dummies are incorporated to identify the effects of seasonality on volatility. Then, the presence of break in volatility is tested by cumulative sum of squares (CUSUM test), followed by generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastictity and EGARCH models are measured by including seasonal dummies, break dummies and the residuals of other market in the variance equation to determine spillover effects.

It is found that the effects of seasonality on volatility cannot be ignored as the effects are significant. The presence of asymmetry is detected in all the commodities. The presence of seasonality and structural breaks in the variance equation are statistically able to reduce the volatility but the magnitude is very negligible with an exception in cumin futures markets. Bi-directional volatility spillover between futures and spot markets is observed in all the commodities and the effect of spillover is more from spot markets to the futures markets.

This study is limited to a few agro commodities which are well traded. This study could have been extended to the other thinly traded commodities. This study has also taken only near month futures contracts as it contains more information but the same could have been studied by taking far month contracts also.

The present study attempted to understand the conjugated effects of seasonality, structural breaks and spillover on volatility of commodity markets which is not apparent in the previous studies. This study has also employed methodological rigor to identify the breaks in the variance equation. In addition to this it has also investigated whether Indian commodity futures markets are informationally more efficient than the spot markets.

The purpose of the paper is to investigate the price interrelationship between the Taiwanese and US financial markets.

The trivariate GJR‐GARCH (1,1) model and event study were employed to investigate volatility asymmetry and overreaction phenomenon, respectively.

The empirical results show that return volatility reveals the asymmetric phenomenon, and the holding period returns on US index futures from the opening of the US index futures electronic trading to the opening of the Taiwanese stock market are an important reference for investors in the Taiwanese stock market. Additionally, the paper presents an overreaction of the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index to a drastic price rise of E‐min NASDAQ 100 Index futures at the opening of the Taiwanese stock market.

This paper deletes the observations arising from the different national holidays of the USA and Taiwan, to have the same number of observations in both markets, which might contaminate the empirical results.

Investors in the Taiwanese stock market tend to pay more attention to the fluctuations in the share prices of high‐technological companies in the USA.

Most of the previous studies regarding price transmission between the Taiwanese and US stock markets focused mainly on the Taiwanese market reactions to the overnight returns of the US market. This paper enlarges the current field by examining the lead‐lag relationship, the volatility asymmetry, and the overreaction phenomenon between the Taiwanese and US financial markets according to the most updated US stock index information.