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The authors evaluate financial stability and capital flows management objectives of capital controls in the context of four capital control events: removing or imposing controls on capital inflows and removing or imposing controls on capital outflows. The authors use synthetic control method to solve the endogeneity problem stemmed from the timing of capital control implementation. The authors find new evidence that capital controls are not consistently effective in reaching financial stability outcomes but are consistent in reaching capital flows management outcomes. The authors compare our results to estimates using difference-in-difference (DID) and carry out placebo analysis. Finally, we use synthetic DID to correct for the parallel trend bias and show that the results still hold.

This chapter examines the effects that airports have had on economic development in cities from 1950 to 2010. It uses a novel dataset consisting of previously unexploited data on the origins and history of the aviation system in the United States. Applying the method of synthetic controls to a set of medium and small airports, I examine both the overall impacts and the heterogeneity within the outcomes of various airports. Then, I use regression analysis to determine key factors differentiating successful airports from less successful ones, as it pertains particularly to population and employment growth. I find that, first, on average, cities have benefited from airports over this period. Airports, overall, provided a causal contribution of 0.2– 0.6% per year on population and employment growth over the time period. Second, I show that city-level factors contributing to airport success include: (1) closer proximity to a major research university, (2) a capital city location, and (3) climate factors, particularly higher January mean temperatures and/or hours of sunshine. City size is a consideration as well; cities in larger metropolitan areas, with larger shares of employment in nontradables in the 1950s, were also better positioned to reap the benefits that airports provided on city growth. Significant differences were not found across regions, airport governance structures, or other factors.

What would have been the hypothetical effect of monetary policy shocks had a country never joined the euro area, in cases where we know that the country in question actually did join the euro area? It is one thing to investigate the impact of joining a monetary union, but quite another to examine two things at once: joining the union and experiencing actual monetary policy shocks. The authors propose a methodology that combines synthetic control ideas with the impulse response functions to uncover dynamic response paths for treated and untreated units, controlling for common unobserved factors. Focusing on the largest euro area countries, Germany, France, and Italy, the authors find that an unexpected rise in interest rates depresses inflation and significantly appreciates exchange rate, whereas gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations are less successfully controlled when a country belongs to the monetary union than would have been the case under the independent monetary policy. Importantly, Italy turns out to be the overall beneficiary, since all three channels – price, GDP, and exchange rate – deliver the desired results. The authors also find that stabilizing an economy within a union requires somewhat smaller policy changes than attempting to stabilize it individually, and therefore provides more policy space.

This study aims to investigate the relationship between Airbnb and long-term residential rents, using Santa Monica, California, as a case study. In 2015, Santa Monica adopted the home sharing ordinance (HSO), a stringent regulation aimed at restricting short-term rentals (STR). This research examines the implications of this ordinance on the local housing market.

The synthetic control method (SCM) is applied to a panel data set comprising Airbnb listings and residential rents from multiple cities in Los Angeles County. This approach is used to estimate the causal effects of Santa Monica’s HSO on two outcomes: Airbnb listings and residential rents.

The empirical results show a 60% reduction in Airbnb listings in Santa Monica within two years of implementing the ordinance. Despite this significant decrease, the effect of the regulation on rents was not significant. Suggestive evidence indicates that the ordinance’s ineffectiveness in increasing the number of houses allocated to long-term tenants may have contributed to its negligible impact on rental rates.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this research is the first to use the SCM for evaluating the impact of STR regulations. It offers crucial insights to policymakers on regulating platforms like Airbnb. The study reveals a scenario where a marked decrease in Airbnb activity did not lower residential rents, highlighting the need for context-specific evaluations in understanding the housing market’s dynamics. Additionally, these findings are valuable for investors considering the implications of regulatory changes in the STR sector.

An economic impact study conducted in 2010 predicted that hosting the 34th America's Cup in 2013 would result in $1.37 billion in total economic benefits to the San Francisco Bay Area. The goal of this paper is to examine the ex post effects of this competition on real taxable sales in the Bay Area.

A panel data set of quarterly observations on taxable sales transactions for all counties in the state of California is employed. These data are explored using two estimation methodologies: difference-in-differences and synthetic control.

Results from a difference-in-differences analysis and a synthetic control analysis produce similar findings. Namely, the 34th America's Cup competition appears to have had a minimal, short-lived impact on San Francisco and no measurable impact on two nearby counties.

The empirical results in this paper underscore the findings of previous research showing that ex ante economic impact studies tend to overstate the net economic benefits of hosting mega-events.

The results of this paper may serve as a warning to policy makers considering using tax dollars to host a mega-event that such events often do not generate the economic gains reported in typical economic impact studies.

This is the first paper to econometrically explore the impact of hosting the America's Cup on taxable sales transactions in a region. This paper also employs the relatively new empirical methodology called synthetic control.

The China–Europe Railway Express (CR Express) in Chongqing has operated regularly and undergone large-scale development. Its impact on Chongqing’s economic growth has become increasingly evident, necessitating further research in this field.

This study employs the opening of CR Express as a quasi-natural experiment, designating Chongqing, which inaugurated the CR Express in 2011, as the treatment group. 13 provinces and cities that had not yet opened the CR Express until 2017 were selected as the control group. Utilizing panel data from 14 provinces across China spanning from 2006 to 2017, the synthetic control method (SCM) is employed to synthetically construct Chongqing. To quantify the difference in economic development levels between Chongqing with the operation of the CR express and Chongqing without its operation. Key metrics such as gross domestic product (GDP), per capita GDP, total retail sales of consumer goods, import and export value and the proportions of the secondary and tertiary industries are employed to measure urban economic development capabilities. Chongqing is designated as the experimental group, and a double-difference model is constructed to regress the operation of the CR Express against economic development capabilities. Robustness tests are conducted to validate the analytical results.

The results indicate that, compared to provinces without the operation of the CR Express, the initiation of the CR Express in Chongqing significantly enhances the economic development level of the city. The opening of the CR Express exhibits a pronounced positive impact on Chongqing’s economic development, and these findings remain robust and effective even after parallel trend tests and placebo tests.

The study represents an expansion of the theoretical framework. In contrast to previous studies that relied on a single indicator such as GDP, this study selects six indicators from the dimensions of economy, trade and industry to measure regional economic development capabilities. Furthermore, employing the grey relational analysis method, the study screens these indicators, thereby providing a theoretical basis for the selection of indicators for measuring regional economic development capabilities.

Legislation plays a vital role in solving carbon emissions reduction and climate change issues. China began to implement a low-carbon economic policy in 2010, but the effect of the policy needs to be evaluated. Accordingly, this paper aims to discuss China’s low-carbon policy through exploring the following two questions, namely, whether the policy effect reaches the expected goal and whether the policy effects will balance economic development and emission reduction. Then, the paper puts forward suggestions for the improvement of China’s low-carbon policy.

This paper is organized around three distinct aspects of policy effect evaluation. This paper uses the synthetic control method to construct a policy effect evaluation model and conducts a quasi-natural experiment. The paper selects annual panel data from 2003 to 2015, which is selected from 33 provinces. A comparative analysis of carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic development between Hubei Province and Liaoning Province.

The results reveal that the implementation of the low-carbon pilot province policy in 2010 has a significant impact on the emission reduction effect of Liaoning Province, but the impact on the emission reduction effect of Hubei Province is not significant. The carbon emission trading system implemented in 2012 has reduced the emission reductions in Hubei Province and Liaoning Province has achieved better emission reduction effects after the implementation of this policy. After the implementation of the policy, the economic development of Hubei Province has been improved, but it has not brought help to the economic development of Liaoning Province. These findings provide new insights into the use of an emissions trading system for improving economic development and ultimately facilitate the attainment of the broader goal of sustainability.

This paper proposes an innovative policy effect evaluation method by considering the status of unit gross domestic product, fixed asset investment in the energy industry, energy consumption, emission reduction technology innovation and other evaluation indicators. This paper contributes to broadening current methods of policy effect evaluation in China.

In this chapter, the author argues that Austrians are perhaps uniquely placed to be effective practitioners of causal inference techniques on observational data. This is because, while the methods are easy to implement, their validity and value lies in a detailed, “analytical/historical” narrative to accompany the findings. This is true for several reasons. (1) all the models have identifying assumptions (e.g., no spillovers and parallel trends) that are best addressed by an exposition of the institutional/economic/historical milieu in place before and after the treatment under study; (2) determination of external validity also requires detailed institutional and historical knowledge; and (3) researchers often want to know the mechanisms producing the reduced form result that comes out of most causal inference studies. Here again, institutional and historical learning is crucial. My conclusion is that Austrians should add the tools of causal inference with observational data to their arsenal of analysis. This would be good both for their publication prospects and for the profession at large.

This paper aims to examine the short-term effect of the Arizona Immigration Law of 2010 (SB 1070) on the noncitizen Hispanic state population.

To get a consistent estimate of this effect, a synthetic control method has been used to calculate a suitable counterfactual.

Results indicate that this bill produced a statistically significant short-term reduction in the proportion of noncitizen Hispanics in Arizona between 10 and 15 per cent. However, the evidence suggests that this effect vanishes after a few months.

These findings are consistent with previous evidence of the high mobility of the undocumented population in the US, and contribute to the understanding of the effects of federal and state-level immigration legislation.

Este artículo examina el efecto a corto plazo de la Ley de Inmigración de Arizona de 2010 (SB 1070) sobre la población hispana no ciudadana.

Para obtener una estimación consistente sobre este efecto, he utilizado un método de control sintético para calcular una hipótesis de contraste adecuada.

Los resultados indican que este proyecto produjo una reducción a corto plazo estadísticamente significativa en la proporción de hispanos no ciudadanos en Arizona —entre el 10% y el 15%—. Sin embargo, la evidencia sugiere que este efecto desaparece después de unos meses.

Estos hallazgos son consistentes con la evidencia previa de la alta movilidad de la población indocumentada en los Estados Unidos, y contribuyen a la comprensión de los efectos de la legislación de inmigración federal y estatal.

Población hispana, Inmigración ilegal, Control sintético

Artículo de investigación

Because of the renewed interest in public purchasing and the strategic use of public funds under the requirements of sustainable development, the question arose once again as to how to curb the fall of institutional quality once criteria other than price are inserted into the decision-making in public purchasing. E-procurement has been repeatedly named as one of the most efficient tools to that effect and the present paper sets out to discover whether the implementation of e-procurement in a particular country per se entails also higher institutional quality, allowing for a wider implementation of green and sustainable procurement at the national, regional and municipal level without the fear of worsening the country’s institutional quality. By analyzing the implementation of e-procurement in Denmark, the Netherlands and in Portugal, this paper aims to verify the hypothesis that the implementation of e-procurement implies better institutions in terms of public purchasing. As such, the conclusions will be used in further research on the prerequisites for a successful implementation of green public procurement across the European Union.

Gathering data on institutional quality of three early e-procurement adopters (Denmark, the Netherlands and Portugal) allows for comparison of institutional quality pre- and post-e-procurement implementation. By using difference-in-differences comparison the paper seeks to answer the question how doesmandatory e-procurement influence institutional quality on the national level.

The paper finds that the reform is generally associated with a relatively stronger control of corruption in the Netherlands and Denmark, while a similar reform in Portugal failed to translate into a stronger control of corruption. Furthermore, while using the quality of regulation as a dependent variable, a positive and robust effect on the quality of regulation in Denmark was shown, while the quality of reputation in the Netherlands and Portugal declined in the post-reform period, with the drop in the quality of regulation in Portugal being considerably greater, a two-fold higher amount than the estimated drop in the Netherlands. The paper suggests that in spite of the same aims, the reform yielded substantially different or even opposing effects compared to Denmark.

By examining three examples of early adopters, further research with broader impact is needed to deduce general implications for e-procurement implementation. Furthermore, implementation of e-procurement at the regional or local level can also yield distinct results.

Understanding the actual impact of e-procurement on institutional quality is indispensable for further study on the matter. The present study argues that e-procurement needs to be accompanied by additional measures or variables to yield a positive impact on institutional quality in public procurement.

As to originality, the present paper uses a law and economics approach, originating or better said drawing motivation from green public procurement concerns, trying to provide an insight in terms of tools that can be used to eliminate concerns regarding institutional quality when implementing green public procurement practices.