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This paper aims to investigate whether the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is an optimum currency area in the wake of the global financial crisis and low oil prices using annual data from 2000 to 2016.

It applies the European Monetary Union as a reference point and co-movement methodology on key variables such as gross domestic product, inflation, terms of trade and current account balance. The findings revealed that all countries meet the macroeconomic convergence criteria and there is greater co-movement of these variables in the GCC.

Furthermore, the degree of co-movements increases during the financial crisis and recent low oil prices, which signifies the synchronization of shocks. However, labor is less mobile in the region and current account balance co-movement is relatively weak, but with the endogeneity of a monetary union, these constraints will evaporate as the zone enters monetary unification. The paper recommends that for the GCC monetary union to happen and be sustainable, there needs to be political will. The paper also recommended for the zone to have a common identification card so that nationals can move and work freely within the GCC region.

The study defers from the others in the following: this paper considered shock synchronization and co-movement methodology, which has not been applied in the region to assess its feasibility as an OCA.

What would have been the hypothetical effect of monetary policy shocks had a country never joined the euro area, in cases where we know that the country in question actually did join the euro area? It is one thing to investigate the impact of joining a monetary union, but quite another to examine two things at once: joining the union and experiencing actual monetary policy shocks. The authors propose a methodology that combines synthetic control ideas with the impulse response functions to uncover dynamic response paths for treated and untreated units, controlling for common unobserved factors. Focusing on the largest euro area countries, Germany, France, and Italy, the authors find that an unexpected rise in interest rates depresses inflation and significantly appreciates exchange rate, whereas gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations are less successfully controlled when a country belongs to the monetary union than would have been the case under the independent monetary policy. Importantly, Italy turns out to be the overall beneficiary, since all three channels – price, GDP, and exchange rate – deliver the desired results. The authors also find that stabilizing an economy within a union requires somewhat smaller policy changes than attempting to stabilize it individually, and therefore provides more policy space.

The establishment of a currency union is a topical issue in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). The subject of currency union formation needs to be reassessed in light of the recent efforts towards the economic integration of west African countries. This study employs the Markov Switching Model (MSM) to determine whether a currency union in WAMZ is feasible. The study analyzes the regime switching behavior in WAMZ countries’ foreign exchange markets before and after the formation of the union. The contribution of this study is two-fold. First, the study accounts for the success or otherwise of the latest efforts to integrate the fiscal and monetary strategies in the zone. Secondly, the study contributes to the literature on the currency union literature in WAMZ by using Markov Switching Model (MSM) to generate novel results. The results of the study revealed that prior to the WAMZ formation, the real exchange rates of member states were more divergent. In contrast, a growing but marginal, convergence was observed after the formation of the zone amongst four (Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Gambia, and Liberia) of the six countries. The authors conclude that while WAMZ is on course for establishing a currency union, their monetary authorities must work together, particularly with Ghana and Liberia, to synchronize their policy efforts, and policy makers must implement policies to strengthen harmonious trade interactions.

This study aims to research the effects of unemployment wages current account and consumer price index (CPI) on the real gross domestic product (RGDP), which, in the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, supposes that countries with higher factor mobility can significantly profit from the currency area. However, in this study, it is shown that the considered optimum currency crisis (OCC) model is affected by mobility factors, as the defined theory has not been perfectly realised in the Eurozone.

In this study, Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey and Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests are used for supporting the survey for better estimation of the panel cointegration tests, where Pedroni's (1995, 1997) technique is used. The unit root tests are employed, of which the Phillip–Perron and augmented Dickey–Fuller tests (unit root test, Dickey, D. and W. Fuller, 1979) are considered.

It can be concluded that demand shocks will tend to be more asymmetric instead of being symmetric, even though they are in the customs union (CU). However, Polish workers in a given scenario may move to Germany, but because of the rigidity of the labour market and qualification differences between workers, the interregional integration of member countries is reduced, and this reduces the absorption of asymmetric shocks. In Germany, where strong employment protection and rigidity are observed in comparison to Poland, although there has been historical migration and economical collaboration, unfortunately, the integration of the two countries’ economies has not been realised.

Quantitative research on fiscal union and the estimation of its effects is not possible because there is no practical experience of fiscal union throughout the European Union (EU). However, quantitative research is used for estimating the effects of OCA in the Eurozone. Quantitative investigation is particularly focused on the monetary union and single currency and its impact on growth rate. In this study, the ordinary least squares (OLS) method and panel cointegration test are employed for estimating the effects of the considered variables.

The Eurozone and the application of a single currency throughout the EU was a considerably difficult task. In addition, the adoption of a single currency was not easy for those member countries that fulfilled the “convergence criteria” (or “Maastricht criteria”) and who joined the Eurozone, because only adoption is not enough; maintenance of those criteria is also required. This study analysed the application of the Eurozone in the light of the OCA of Mundel's theory.

The OCA is important for member countries’ economic relations. However, the application of a single currency is not easy and needs to be controlled and regulated to ensure best practises throughout the Eurozone. Monetary integration is not a simple process, and Eurozone countries’ financial difficulties affect each other’s markets’ indifferent aspects. Particularly in any market recession, demand shocks tend to have different effects. Furthermore, in comparison to the monetary union, the CU has a considerable impact on trade enlargement.

In this study, the effects of the independent variables “wages, unemployment, CPI and capital flow” on the dependent variable “RGDP” is considered, which, in the OCA theory, supposes that countries with higher factor mobility can significantly profit from the currency area. In application, it was turned into crisis because of inadequate monetary and fiscal application. In this paper OCA is questioned in the light of the Eurozone for bringing better understanding to these difficulties. The considered model and estimations are used for evaluating to create sustainable monetary integration for economic growth.

This paper investigates the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policies. It identifies an anti-growth bias in the ECB’s monetary policy approach: the ECB is quick to hike, but slow to ease. Similarly, while other players and institutional deficiencies share responsibility for the euro’s failure, the bank has generally done “too little, too late” with regard to managing the euro crisis, preventing protracted stagnation, and containing deflation threats. The bank remains attached to the euro area’s official competitive wage repression strategy which is in conflict with the ECB’s price stability mandate and undermines the bank’s more recent unconventional monetary policy initiatives designed to restore price stability. The ECB needs a “Euro Treasury” partner to overcome the euro regime’s most serious flaw: the divorce between central bank and treasury institutions.

Discusses the difficulties that lie in the way of moves towards monetary union in the European Community: convergence criteria, attitudes towards various forms of possible political union, German unification, the location and independence of an independent European Central Bank, “cohesion” provisions in the Maastricht Treaty, and the Delors Budget.

Assesses whether the current pattern of relative wage rigidity and labour inertia in Europe is a problematic factor in the successful functioning of the European monetary union as viewed by many observers given the absence of interregional fiscal transfer payments.

Uses econometric methods to test whether the onset of monetary integration in the US and the gold standard in selected countries has increased the pro‐cyclical behaviour of real wages.

Finds suggestive empirical evidence that indeed a Lucas Critique argument applies such that credibly fixed exchange rate regimes might induce wages to carry the burden of macroeconomic adjustment in lieu of independent monetary policy and/or fiscal transfers.

Makes a novel contribution to the literature by attempting to test for the existence of endogenous adjustment mechanisms based on historical monetary unions analogous to EMU.

For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework.

This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates.

The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification.

The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures.

The focus of this paper is the economic theory of the plans for the European Monetary Union. Part 1 demonstrates that economists, bankers and policy makers know very little about monetary policy. Part 2 explains the errors of the common practice of defining money by its functions. Because any monetary policy must rest on a definition of money it seems reasonable to conclude that a flawed definition might lead to problems with monetary policy. Part 3 applies this insight to the plans for a common currency in Europe. Because of uncertainties about the timing and details of the implementation, some important considerations are necessarily speculative. They are relegated to appendices. Appendix 1 comments on the timing and authorship and responsibility for the official reports with their unspecified authors. Appendix 2 supplies some grounds for doubting the ultimate durability of the European Monetary Union focusing on reasons that are historical, economic and pragmatic. Because the entire movement is driven by politics, not economics, Appendix 3 considers some of the relevant political issues. The conclusions summarize and speculate on possible reasons for successful outcomes.