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Article
Publication date: 28 March 2023

Shoaib Ali, Imran Yousaf and Xuan Vinh Vo

This study examines the dynamics of the comovement and causal relationship between conventional (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Binance coin) and Islamic (OneGram, X8X token and HelloGold…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the dynamics of the comovement and causal relationship between conventional (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Binance coin) and Islamic (OneGram, X8X token and HelloGold) cryptocurrencies.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses wavelet coherence approach to examine the time-varying lead-lag relationship between conventional and Islamic cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, the authors use BEKK-GARCH model to estimate the optimal weights, hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness in pre-COVID-19 and during the COVID-19 period.

Findings

The authors find no significant comovement in pre-COVID-19. However, the authors find significant positive comovement in conventional and Islamic cryptocurrencies at the beginning of the pandemic, and in most cases, conventional cryptocurrencies are leading. X8X and HelloGold have no/weak correlation with conventional cryptocurrencies, implying that investors can diversify the risk by making an Islamic and conventional cryptocurrencies portfolio. The authors also calculate the optimal weights, hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness using the BEKK-GARCH model. Based on the optimal weights, for the portfolios of conventional–Islamic cryptocurrencies, investors are suggested to increase their investment in Islamic cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 than normal period. The results of hedge ratios show that hedging costs are higher during COVID-19 than before.

Practical implications

The findings of the paper offer several practical policy implications for investors, portfolio manager, Shariah advisors and policymakers pertaining to asset allocation, risk management, forecasting and diversification. Specifically, investors can maximize the risk adjusted returns of their conventional cryptocurrencies portfolio by adding some portions of Islamic cryptocurrencies. Considering the comovement is time-varying, investors/manager should adjust their investment strategies frequently. For the entrepreneurs in crypto-industry, it is advised to introduce new Islamic cryptocurrencies, as it has a huge growth potential because of their distinct features and performance.

Originality/value

This is the first study that explores the linkages between conventional and Islamic cryptocurrencies, therefore this study extends the literature of Islamic finance, stablecoins and cryptocurrencies in pre-COVID-19 and during COVID-19 period. The study results provide insights to conventional crypto investor on how to manage their portfolio during normal and turbulent period.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Amal Ghedira and Mohamed Sahbi Nakhli

This study aims to examine the dynamic bidirectional causality between oil price (OIL) and stock market indexes in net oil-exporting (Russia) and net oil-importing (China…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the dynamic bidirectional causality between oil price (OIL) and stock market indexes in net oil-exporting (Russia) and net oil-importing (China) countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use monthly data for the period starting from October 1995 to October 2021. In this study, the bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality approach introduced by Balcilar et al. (2010) and the probit regression model are performed in order to identify the bidirectional causality.

Findings

The results show that the causal periods mainly occur during economic, financial and health crises. For oil-exporting country, the results suggest that any increase (decrease) in the OIL leads to an appreciation (depreciation) in the stock market index. The effect of the stock market on OIL is more relevant for the oil-importing country than that for the oil-exporting one. The COVID-19 consequences are demonstrated in the impact of oil on the Russian stock market. The probit regression shows that the US financial instabilities increase the probability of causality between OIL and stock market indexes in Russia and China.

Practical implications

The dynamic relationship between the variables must be taken into account in investment decisions. As financial instabilities in the USA drive the relationship between oil and stocks, investors should consider geopolitical, economic and financial elements when constructing their portfolios. Shareholders are required to include other assets in their portfolios since oil–stock relationship is highly risky.

Originality/value

This study provides further evidence of the bidirectional oil–stock causal link. Additionally, it examines the impact of financial instabilities on the probability that the OIL and the stock market index cause each other through the Granger effect.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 October 2023

Puneet Kumar Arora and Jaydeep Mukherjee

This study aims to add to the growing literature on the trade–finance nexus by exploring the interplay between a country's level of financial development, the external finance…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to add to the growing literature on the trade–finance nexus by exploring the interplay between a country's level of financial development, the external finance dependence of firms and their exporting decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

The study first develops a theoretical model to motivate the idea that a firm's liquidity (financial) position and its home country's level of financial development act as substitute factors in its export market entry decisions. It then empirically tests whether an improvement in a country's financial development level enhances the number of entrants in the foreign markets and boosts the exports of incumbent exporters using firm-level data of manufacturing firms in India for the period 1993–2020.

Findings

Empirical results suggest that a higher level of financial development helps increase the exporting probability of firms that rely more on external finance for their operations. Further, the study finds that the sunk costs-induced hysteresis effect plays a major role in firms' exporting decisions and financial factors don't play a significant role in the exporting activities of incumbent exporters.

Practical implications

The findings suggest that a well-developed financial market is necessary to help more and more firms initiate their foreign market operations. The results underscore that trade-liberalisation measures alone may not increase India's exports and the government must complement them with financial sector reforms.

Originality/value

Studies highlighting the role of financial sector development in helping financially-constrained Indian firms overcome the entry barriers associated with exporting are extremely limited. This study contributes to this nascent literature by conducting an empirical investigation on an extensive database of Indian manufacturing firms. Moreover, in contrast to the previous firm-level studies in this area, this empirical analysis uses the actual values of external finance raised by the firms as a critical factor in determining their extensive and intensive margin of exports instead of the usual balance sheet variables such as liquidity and leverage.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 January 2024

Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun, Suhaib Anagreh, Mosab I. Tabash and Xuan Vinh Vo

This paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable precious metals: gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium.

Design/methodology/approach

Applying time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) frequency-based connectedness approach to a data set spanning from January 1997 to February 2023, the study analyzes return and volatility connectedness separately, providing insights into how the data, in return and volatility forms, differ across time and frequency.

Findings

The results of the return connectedness show that gold, palladium and silver are affected more by EPU in the short term, while all precious metals are influenced by GPR in the short term. EPGR exhibits strong contributions to the system due to its elevated levels of policy uncertainty and extreme global risks. Palladium shows the highest reaction to EPGR, while silver shows the lowest. Return spillovers are generally time-varying and spike during critical global events. The volatility connectedness is long-term driven, suggesting that uncertainty and risk factors influence market participants’ long-term expectations. Notable peaks in total connectedness occurred during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, with the latter being the highest.

Originality/value

Using the recently updated news-based uncertainty indicators, the study examines the time and frequency connectedness between key uncertainty measures and precious metals in their returns and volatility forms using the TVP-VAR frequency-based connectedness approach.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 March 2024

Benny Hutahayan, Mohamad Fadli, Satria Amiputra Amimakmur and Reka Dewantara

This study aims to analyze the causes and implications of legal uncertainty in the issuance of conventional municipal bonds in Indonesia and to draw lessons from Vietnam’s…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to analyze the causes and implications of legal uncertainty in the issuance of conventional municipal bonds in Indonesia and to draw lessons from Vietnam’s approach in providing better legal certainty.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts a normative legal method with a legislative approach and applies a comparative approach. Data sources involve primary and secondary legal materials from both Indonesia and Vietnam.

Findings

The legal uncertainty is caused by a lack of coherence and consistency in legislation. Based on Vietnam’s experience, Indonesia can gain valuable insights related to providing strong legal certainty for parties involved in issuing or investing through conventional municipal bonds.

Research limitations/implications

This study focuses on the comparative legal analysis of conventional municipal bonds in Indonesia with Vietnam.

Practical implications

This research provides recommendations for the refinement of legislation regarding conventional municipal bonds to the government.

Social implications

This study is related to legal certainty as a strategy to attract investment through municipal bonds and to ensure the municipal bond issuance process is transparent and efficient.

Originality/value

This study provides a comparative perspective on the issuance of municipal bonds in Indonesia, with a special focus on Vietnam, emphasizing the urgency of harmonization in legal regulation and the sustainability of legal certainty.

Details

International Journal of Law and Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-243X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 April 2023

Rim El Khoury, Walid Mensi, Muneer M. Alshater and Sanghoon Kang

This study examines the risk spillovers between Indonesian sectorial stocks (Energy, Basic Materials, Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Consumer Non-cyclical and Financials), the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the risk spillovers between Indonesian sectorial stocks (Energy, Basic Materials, Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Consumer Non-cyclical and Financials), the aggregate index (IDX) and two commodities (gold and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil [WTI] futures).

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses two methodologies: the TVP-VAR model of Antonakakis and Gabauer (2017) and the quantile connectedness approach of Ando et al. (2022). The data cover the period from October 04, 2010, to April 5, 2022.

Findings

The results show that the IDX, industrials and materials are net transmitters, while the financials, consumer noncyclical and energy sectors are the dominant shock receivers. Using the quantile connectedness approach, the role of each sector is heterogeneous and asymmetric, and the return spillover is stronger at lower and higher quantiles. Furthermore, the portfolio hedging results show that oil offers more diversification gains than gold, and hedging oil is more effective during the pandemic.

Practical implications

This study provides valuable insights for investors to diversify their portfolios and for policymakers to develop policies, regulations and risk management tools to promote stability in the Indonesian stock market. The results can inform the design of market regulations and the development of risk management tools to ensure the stability and resilience of the market.

Originality/value

This study is the first to examine the spillovers between commodities and Indonesian sectors, recognizing the presence of heterogeneity in the relationship under different market conditions. It provides important portfolio diversification insights for equity investors interested in the Indonesian stock market and policymakers.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 June 2022

Achraf Ghorbel, Sahar Loukil and Walid Bahloul

This paper analyzes the connectedness with network among the major cryptocurrencies, the G7 stock indexes and the gold price over the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic…

2458

Abstract

Purpose

This paper analyzes the connectedness with network among the major cryptocurrencies, the G7 stock indexes and the gold price over the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic period, in 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used a multivariate approach proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012 and 2014).

Findings

For a stock index portfolio, the results of static connectedness showed a higher independence between the stock markets during the COVID-19 crisis. It is worth noting that in general, cryptocurrencies are diversifiers for a stock index portfolio, which enable to reduce volatility especially in the crisis period. Dynamic connectedness results do not significantly differ from those of the static connectedness, the authors just mention that the Bitcoin Gold becomes a net receiver. The scope of connectedness was maintained after the shock for most of the cryptocurrencies, except for the Dash and the Bitcoin Gold, which joined a previous level. In fact, the Bitcoin has always been the biggest net transmitter of volatility connectedness or spillovers during the crisis period. Maker is the biggest net-receiver of volatility from the global system. As for gold, the authors notice that it has remained a net receiver with a significant increase in the network reception during the crisis period, which confirms its safe haven.

Originality/value

Overall, the authors conclude that connectedness is shown to be conditional on the extent of economic and financial uncertainties marked by the propagation of the coronavirus while the Bitcoin Gold and Litecoin are the least receivers, leading to the conclusion that they can be diversifiers.

研究目的

本文分析於2020年2019冠狀病毒病肆虐期間、主要的加密貨幣、七國集團 (G7) 股價指數與黃金價格三者之間在網絡上的連通性。

研究設計/方法/理念

分析使用迪博爾德和耶爾馬茲 (Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012, 2014)) 提出的多變量分析法。

研究結果

就一個股票指數投資組合而言,靜態連結的結果顯示、在2019冠狀病毒病肆虐期間,股票市場之間有更高的獨立性。值得我們注意的是:一般來說,加密貨幣在股票指數投資組合起著多元化投資作用,這可減低不穩定性,尤其是在危機時期。動態連結的結果與靜態連結的結果沒有顯著的分別。我們剛提到、比特幣黃金已成為純接收者。除了處於先前水平的達世幣和比特幣黃金外,就大部分的加密貨幣而言,連通的範圍在衝擊後都得以維持。事實上,在這危機時期,比特幣一直是波動性連結或溢出的最大淨傳播者。掛單者 (Maker) 是從全球系統中出現的最大波動淨接收者。至於黃金,我們注意到在危機時期、它仍然是在網絡接收方面擁有顯著增長的淨接收者,這確認其為安全的避難所。

研究的原創性/價值

總的來說,我們的結論是:連通性被確認為取決於標誌著受廣泛傳播的冠狀病毒影響下的經濟和金融欠缺穩定的程度,而比特幣黃金和萊特幣則是最小的接收者,這帶出一個結論、就是:比特幣黃金和萊特幣、可以成為多元化投資項目。

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 November 2023

Fouad Jamaani and Abdullah M. Alawadhi

Driven by the anticipated global stagflation, this straightforward yet novel study examines the cost of inflation as a macroeconomic factor by investigating its influence on stock…

Abstract

Purpose

Driven by the anticipated global stagflation, this straightforward yet novel study examines the cost of inflation as a macroeconomic factor by investigating its influence on stock market growth. Thus, this paper aims to examine the impact of inflation on the probability of initial public offering (IPO) withdrawal decision.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper employs a large dataset that covers the period January 1995–December 2019 and comprises 33,536 successful or withdrawn IPOs from 22 nations with various legal and cultural systems. This study applies a probit model utilizing version 15 of Stata statistical software.

Findings

This study finds that inflation is substantially and positively correlated with the likelihood of IPO withdrawal. Results of this study show that the IPO withdrawal decision increases up to 90% when the inflation rate climbs by 10%. Multiple robustness tests provide consistent findings.

Practical implications

This study's implications are important for researchers, investment banks, underwriters, issuers, regulators and stock exchanges. When processing IPO proposals, investment banks, underwriters and issuers must consider inflation projections to avoid negative effects, as demonstrated by the findings. In addition, regulators and stock exchanges must be aware of the detrimental impact of inflation on competitiveness in attracting new listings.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to present convincing evidence of a major relationship between IPO withdrawal decision and inflation.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 December 2023

Z. Göknur Büyükkara, İsmail Cem Özgüler and Ali Hepsen

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both the short- and long-term, unraveling these complex linkages by employing an empirical approach.

Design/methodology/approach

This study benefits from a comprehensive set of econometric tools, including a multiequation vector autoregressive (VAR) system, Granger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition and a single-equation autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) system. This rigorous approach enables to identify both short- and long-run dynamics to unravel the intricate linkages between Brent oil prices, housing prices, gold prices and stock prices in the UK and Norway over the period from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2.

Findings

The findings indicate that rising oil prices negatively impact house prices, whereas the positive influence of stock market performance on housing is more pronounced. A two-way causal relationship exists between stock market indices and house prices, whereas a one-way causal relationship exists from crude oil prices to house prices in both countries. The VAR model reveals that past housing prices, stock market indices in each country and Brent oil prices are the primary determinants of current housing prices. The single-equation ARDL results for housing prices demonstrate the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between real estate and stock prices. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that oil prices have a more pronounced impact on housing prices compared with stock prices. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a greater influence on housing market prices than those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Research limitations/implications

This study may have several limitations. First, the model does not include all relevant macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, unemployment rates and gross domestic product growth. This omission may affect the accuracy of the model’s predictions and lead to inefficiencies in the real estate market. Second, this study does not consider alternative explanations for market inefficiencies, such as behavioral finance factors, information asymmetry or market microstructure effects. Third, the models have limitations in revealing how predictors react to positive and negative shocks. Therefore, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution.

Practical implications

These findings hold significant implications for formulating dynamic policies aimed at stabilizing the housing markets of these two oil-producing nations. The practical implications of this study extend to academics, investors and policymakers, particularly in light of the volatility characterizing both housing and commodity markets. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a more profound impact on housing market prices compared with those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Social implications

These findings could also serve as valuable insights for future research endeavors aimed at constructing models that link real estate market dynamics to macroeconomic indicators.

Originality/value

Using a variety of econometric approaches, this paper presents an innovative empirical analysis of the intricate relationship between euro property prices, stock prices, gold prices and oil prices in the UK and Norway from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2. Expanding upon the existing literature on housing market price determinants, this study delves into the role of gold and oil prices, considering their impact on industrial production and overall economic growth. This paper provides valuable policy insights for effectively managing the impact of oil price shocks on the housing market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 February 2023

Maria Babar, Habib Ahmad and Imran Yousaf

This study investigate the return and volatility spillover among agricultural commodities and emerging stock markets during various crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigate the return and volatility spillover among agricultural commodities and emerging stock markets during various crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Design/methodology/approach

This return and volatility spillover is estimated using Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) approach.

Findings

The results reveal the weak connectedness between agricultural commodities and emerging stock markets. Corn and sugar are the highest and lowest transmitters, respectively, whereas soya bean and coffee are the largest and smallest recipients of spillover over time. Most equity indices are the net recipient except for India, China, Indonesia, Argentina and Mexico, during the entire sample period. Most commodities are net transmitters of volatility spillover except coffee and soya bean. At the same time, major equity indices are the net recipient of the volatility spillover except for India, Indonesia, China, Argentina, Malaysia and Korea. In addition, the return and volatility spillover increase during various crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war, but the major increase in spillovers occurs during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Practical implications

The empirical results show a weak relationship between agricultural commodities and emerging stock markets which is helpful for investors and portfolio managers in the construction and reallocation of their portfolios under different periods, most notably under COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Originality/value

It is an original paper.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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