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Article
Publication date: 1 June 2012

Hassan Gholipour Fereidouni

In recent years, housing prices and rents have recorded impressive growth in Iran. Several observers believe that real estate agents have had a significant effect on this…

1438

Abstract

Purpose

In recent years, housing prices and rents have recorded impressive growth in Iran. Several observers believe that real estate agents have had a significant effect on this phenomenon. However, some do not agree with this viewpoint and argue that the role of real estate agents is not that much and housing prices and rents are affected by macroeconomic factors. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether real estate agents can influence housing prices and rents across provinces of Iran.

Design/methodology/approach

Applying panel data technique, this paper uses observations from 28 provinces of Iran covering 2000 and 2003 to examine the role of real estate agents on housing prices and rents.

Findings

The empirical results indicate that the increased number of real estate agents and their activities positively significantly stimulate housing prices and rents.

Research limitations/implications

To the author's knowledge, most studies in this area cover the US and European real estate markets. Since findings for developed countries might not be directly transferable to emerging market economies such as Iran, more work is necessary to obtain a clearer picture of the role of real estate agents on housing prices and rents in emerging economies.

Originality/value

Although there has been a series of cross‐sectional studies published in this area, few empirical works have examined the effects of real estate agents on housing prices and rents by applying panel data set. The paper begins to fill this gap by analyzing a data sample of 28 provinces of Iran covering 2000 and 2003.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 April 2024

Daniel Pakši and Aleš Melecký

In this chapter, we aim to analyze the housing market development in Czechia, in particular the development of housing prices over the last 25 years. We quantify and discuss three…

Abstract

In this chapter, we aim to analyze the housing market development in Czechia, in particular the development of housing prices over the last 25 years. We quantify and discuss three distinct periods of excessive growth of regional Czech housing prices, identified through the formation of large positive GAPs – (1) before the entrance of Czechia to the European Union (EU), (2) at the onset of the Global Financial Crisis GFC, (3) in 2021. In all these periods, we identify significant differences among regions. We find that GAPs above 15% may be considered an indication of unsustainable long-term housing price growth that will be followed by a correction.

We then employ fixed effect panel data model to determine the drivers of flat and house prices in 14 Czech regions. Our results show that wage growth, migration and crime rate are significant factors affecting the prices of both flats and houses. Nevertheless, the impact of GDP per capita and job market indicators differs between flats and houses. Moreover, we find that higher migration into the region increases the difference between the prices of houses and flats, while increasing GDP per capita growth and crime rate mitigate this difference significantly.

Details

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-841-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2006

Ming‐Long Lee and R. Kelley Pace

The purpose of this paper is to provide additional evidence that housing prices significantly impact aggregate refinancing and thus directly influence mortgage termination.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide additional evidence that housing prices significantly impact aggregate refinancing and thus directly influence mortgage termination.

Design/methodology/approach

Regression analysis is applied to examine refinancing activity in US cities.

Findings

The evidence shows that positive appreciation in housing prices provides the borrower with positive incentives to refinance in response to the associated increased borrowing capacity when mortgage rates have declined. On the other hand, depreciation in housing prices may depress refinancing.

Research limitations/implications

Housing price movements, not only collateral constraints on refinancing but also the disincentive to engage in cash‐out refinancing caused by depreciation as well as the incentive for cash‐out refinancing brought by appreciation, should be included in modeling total termination risks of mortgage‐backed securities.

Originality/value

In contrast to previous studies, this paper provides empirical support for both the incentive and the disincentive to engage in cash‐out refinancing produced by housing price changes, in addition to support for the traditional collateral constraint effect of housing prices on refinancing.

Details

Property Management, vol. 24 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2011

Eric J. Levin, Alberto Montagnoli and Gwilym Pryce

Downward movements in house prices can exacerbate bank crises if mark‐to‐market methods of asset valuation are used by lenders to assess their current balance sheet exposure…

Abstract

Purpose

Downward movements in house prices can exacerbate bank crises if mark‐to‐market methods of asset valuation are used by lenders to assess their current balance sheet exposure. There is an imperative to find methods of house price index calculation that reflect equilibrium prices rather than temporary undershoots. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new methodology in order to evaluate whether market house prices are different from their fundamental asset prices.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper proposes a method for house asset valuation that incorporates expected house price appreciation as an endogenous variable. This avoids the necessity to make conjectures about expected future house price appreciation when applying Poterba's user‐cost method of house asset valuation. The methodological extension to Poterba's user‐cost method of house asset valuation endogenises expected house price appreciation as the no‐arbitrage expected price appreciation consistent with the term structure of real interest rates. A benchmark equilibrium house valuation can be calculated because the term structure of real forward interest rates is observable in financial markets. This enables market house prices to be compared with the benchmark equilibrium valuation in order to determine if house prices are overvalued or undervalued.

Findings

The paper presents the results of a worked example to illustrate how this approach could be applied in practice.

Research limitations/implications

There are a number of issues associated with the measurement of user cost which we do not address here and which the authors hope will provide fruitful avenues for future research. There are also issues regarding the impact of tax frameworks on the returns to housing, particularly the taxation of mortgage interest and imputed income. More work also needs to be done in comparing the performance of the extended Poterba model against alternative approaches, such as those that use expected inflation and/or long‐run average house price appreciation, or the real interest rate spread to proxy for expected capital appreciation, and how these different approaches compare in different institutional and socio‐economic contexts.

Practical implications

The authors' results underscore the rationale for mortgage banks to use marking to model instead of marking to market, and this in turn should reduce unnecessary macroeconomic instability when the market prices of houses undershoot fundamental value.

Originality/value

The paper shows how the term structure of real forward interest rates, observable in financial markets, can be used to extend the Poterba model.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 4 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 May 2009

Onur Özsoy and Hasan Şahin

The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically major factors that affect housing prices in Istanbul, Turkey using the classification and regression tree (CART) approach.

1430

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically major factors that affect housing prices in Istanbul, Turkey using the classification and regression tree (CART) approach.

Design/methodology/approach

The data set was collected from various internet pages of real estate agencies during June 2007. The CART approach was then applied to derive main results and to make implications with regard to the housing market in Istanbul, Turkey.

Findings

The CART results indicate that sizes, elavators, existance of security, existance of central heating units and existance of view are the most important variables crucially affecting housing prices in Istanbul. The average price of houses in Istanbul was found to be 373,372.36 New Turkish Liras. The average size of a house was 138.37 m2. The average age of houses is 15.07 years old with the average number of rooms being 3.11. The average number of baths is 1.43 and average number of toilets is 1.22. Only 5 percent of homes have storage space, 45 percent of homes have parking space, 64 percent of homes are heated with furnace, whereas only 29 percent of homes are used central heating system. Among the 31 variables employed in this study, it was concluded size, elavator, security, central heating unit and view are the most important factors that have impact on housing prices in housing market in Istanbul.

Practical implications

Future research and analysis of housing market in Istanbul and in Turkey can benefit from the method used in this study and findings derived from this research to come up with more general model(s) to include more houses in a wide range of regions in Turkey to analyze the determinants of housing prices in Turkey in general.

Originality/value

Examining housing prices using the CART model is relatively new in the field of housing economics. Additionally, this study is the first to use the CART model to analyze housing market in Istanbul and in Turkey and derive valuable housing policies to be used by the authorities.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 June 2024

Aliyu Akorede Rufai, Raymond Liambee Aor and Afees Adebare Salisu

This study aims to construct alternative models to establish the dynamic nexus between inflation and housing prices by estimating the short- and long-run relationship between…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to construct alternative models to establish the dynamic nexus between inflation and housing prices by estimating the short- and long-run relationship between housing prices and inflation for 15 OECD countries from 1980Q1 to 2022Q4. Furthermore, the authors examined this association using the core and headline inflation and price-income and price-rent ratios as proxies for inflation and housing prices, respectively.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the panel autoregressive distributed lag technique to examine the nexus between housing prices and inflation to capture the distinct characteristics of the sample countries, estimate various short-run and long-run dynamics cum separate analyses for turbulent and calm periods in the relationship between housing prices and inflation.

Findings

Changes in housing prices have a greater impact on core inflation than headline inflation. Overall, the authors establish a positive (negative) relationship between housing prices and core inflation in the long run (short run) based on alternative proxies of housing prices. However, this connection tends to be less significant for headline inflation and episodic over smaller samples, as it seems stronger during calm periods than turbulent ones.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the authors are the first to examine the association between housing prices and inflation by demonstrating how these variables behave during calm and turbulent periods.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 May 2024

Evangelos Vasileiou, Elroi Hadad and Martha Oikonomou

We examine the aggregate price trend of the Greek housing market from a behavioral perspective.

Abstract

Purpose

We examine the aggregate price trend of the Greek housing market from a behavioral perspective.

Design/methodology/approach

We construct a behavioral real estate sentiment index, based on relevant real estate search terms from Google Trends and websites, and examine its association with real estate price distributions and trends. By employing EGARCH(1,1) on the New Apartments Index data from the Bank of Greece, we capture real estate price volatility and asymmetric effects resulting from changes in the real estate search index. Enhancing robustness, macroeconomic variables are added to the mean equation. Additionally, a run test assesses the efficiency of the Greek housing market.

Findings

The results show a significant relationship between the Greek housing market and our real estate sentiment index; an increase (decrease) in search activity, indicating a growing interest in the real estate market, is strongly linked to potential increases (decreases) in real estate prices. These results remain robust across various estimation procedures and control variables. These findings underscore the influential role of real estate sentiment on the Greek housing market and highlight the importance of considering behavioral factors when analyzing and predicting trends in the housing market.

Originality/value

To investigate the behavioral effect on the Greek housing market, we construct our behavioral pattern indexes using Google search-based sentiment data from Google Trends. Additionally, we incorporate the Google Trend index as an explanatory variable in the EGARCH mean equation to evaluate the influence of online search behavior on the dynamics and prices of the Greek housing market.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 May 2024

Qifeng Wang, Bofan Lin and Consilz Tan

The purpose of this paper is to develop an index for measuring urban house price affordability that integrates spatial considerations and to explore the drivers of housing

41

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop an index for measuring urban house price affordability that integrates spatial considerations and to explore the drivers of housing affordability using the post-least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) approach and the ordinary least squares method of regression analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

The study is based on time-series data collected from 2005 to 2021 for 256 prefectural-level city districts in China. The new urban spatial house-to-price ratio introduced in this study adds the consideration of commuting costs due to spatial endowment compared to the traditional house-to-price ratio. And compared with the use of ordinary economic modelling methods, this study adopts the post-LASSO variable selection approach combined with the k-fold cross-test model to identify the most important drivers of housing affordability, thus better solving the problems of multicollinearity and overfitting.

Findings

Urban macroeconomics environment and government regulations have varying degrees of influence on housing affordability in cities. Among them, gross domestic product is the most important influence.

Research limitations/implications

The paper provides important implications for policymakers, real estate professionals and researchers. For example, policymakers will be able to design policies that target the most influential factors of housing affordability in their region.

Originality/value

This study introduces a new urban spatial house price-to-income ratio, and it examines how macroeconomic indicators, government regulation, real estate market supply and urban infrastructure level have a significant impact on housing affordability. The problem of having too many variables in the decision-making process is minimized through the post-LASSO methodology, which varies the parameters of the model to allow for the ranking of the importance of the variables. As a result, this approach allows policymakers and stakeholders in the real estate market more flexibility in determining policy interventions. In addition, through the k-fold cross-validation methodology, the study ensures a high degree of accuracy and credibility when using drivers to predict housing affordability.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Abstract

Details

The Corporate, Real Estate, Household, Government and Non-Bank Financial Sectors Under Financial Stability
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78756-837-2

Book part
Publication date: 25 May 2021

M. Ozan Yildirim

Introduction: Financial development has a direct impact on the housing market by facilitating access to credit. The increase in housing loans resulting from the relaxation of the…

Abstract

Introduction: Financial development has a direct impact on the housing market by facilitating access to credit. The increase in housing loans resulting from the relaxation of the credit constraint causes an increase in housing demand and house prices. Purpose: This study aims to examine the relationship between financial development and house prices in Turkey, using the variables: the domestic credit to the private sector and total housing and consumer credits. Methodology: To determine any long-run relationship between financial development and house prices, the autoregressive distributed lag methods are used, covering the selected variables such as real GDP, inflation, mortgage interest rate, and stock price from 2010Q1 to 2020Q2. Findings: The study’s findings show that both variables representing financial development have a statistically significant and substantial positive effect on house prices. Besides, the selected macroeconomic variables have the theoretically expected impact on house prices.

Details

Contemporary Issues in Social Science
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80043-931-3

Keywords

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