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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 April 2022

Khurram Ejaz Chandia, Muhammad Badar Iqbal and Waseem Bahadur

This study aims to analyze the imbalances in the public finance structure of Pakistan’s economy and highlight the need for comprehensive reforms. Specifically, it aims to…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to analyze the imbalances in the public finance structure of Pakistan’s economy and highlight the need for comprehensive reforms. Specifically, it aims to contribute to the empirical literature by analyzing the relationship between fiscal vulnerability, financial stress and macroeconomic policies in Pakistan’s economy between 1971 and 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The study develops an index of fiscal vulnerability, an index of financial stress and an index of macroeconomic policies. The fiscal vulnerability index is based on the patterns of fiscal indicators resulting from past trends of the selected variables in Pakistan’s economy. The financial stress in Pakistan is caused from the financial disorders that are acknowledged in the composite index, which is based on variables with the potential to indicate periods of stress stemming from the foreign exchange market, the securities market and the monetary policy components. The macroeconomic policies index is developed to analyze the mechanism through which fiscal vulnerability and financial stress have influenced macroeconomic policies in Pakistan. The causal association between fiscal vulnerability, financial stress and macroeconomic policies is analyzed using the auto-regressive distributive lags approach.

Findings

There exists a long-run relationship between the three indices, and a bi-directional causality between fiscal vulnerability and macroeconomic policies.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the development of a fiscal monitoring mechanism, which has the basic purpose of analyzing the refinancing risk of public liabilities. Moreover, it focuses on fiscal vulnerability from a macroeconomic perspective. The study tries to develop a framework to assess fiscal vulnerability in light of “The Risk Octagon” theory, which focuses on three risk components: fiscal variables, macroeconomic-disruption-associated shocks and non-fiscal country-specific variables. The initial contribution of this work to the literature is to develop a framework (a fiscal vulnerability index, financial stress index and macroeconomic policies index) for effective and result-oriented macro-fiscal surveillance. Moreover, empirical literature emphasized and advised developing countries to develop their own capacity mechanisms to assess their fiscal vulnerability in light of the IMF guidelines regarding vulnerability assessments. This study thus attempts to fulfill the said gap identified in literature.

Details

Fulbright Review of Economics and Policy, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2635-0173

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 25 May 2022

Somnath Chattopadhyay and Suchismita Bose

The study constructs a composite indicator to rank macroeconomic performance of countries and a separate composite indicator to rank countries by inequality using the…

Abstract

The study constructs a composite indicator to rank macroeconomic performance of countries and a separate composite indicator to rank countries by inequality using the TOPSIS methodology of Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Analysis. The intuitive idea of TOPSIS is to formulate an ideal solution with respect to each individual policy variable; the relative rank of any country is then determined, using a suitable distance metric, such that the best performer simultaneously has the shortest distance from the ideal solution and the farthest distance from the non-ideal. It uses the composite indicator based rankings together with the KOF Globalization Index and sub-indices based rankings to examine the overall relationship between globalization and macroeconomic performance of countries and reduction in inequality; the impacts of trade and financial globalization for 1990–2018 across countries and groups of the globe. It shows that though highly correlated with growth, globalization may not necessarily lead to an improvement in overall macroeconomic performances of countries when one also takes into account unemployment and inflation. Economic globalization is seen here to mostly coincide with rise in income inequality. Observations also support the fact that countries, even if they are not highly integrated may reap sufficient benefits of globalization for macroeconomic performance and inequality diminution given supportive policies.

Details

Globalization, Income Distribution and Sustainable Development
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-870-9

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 October 2009

Magda Kandil

The purpose of this paper is to analyze determinants of institutional quality based on six separate indicators of governance: voice and accountability, political…

1994

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze determinants of institutional quality based on six separate indicators of governance: voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption.

Design/methodology/approach

The determinants under consideration include measures of economic freedom by the Cato Institute and the Heritage Foundation, indicators of policy quality, real per capita gross domestic product (GDP), risk rating, and the degree of openness.

Findings

Five measures of institutional quality increase real GDP growth significantly across Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. In contrast, institutional quality has a negative impact on the growth of private credit and private investment. Further, the combined evidence does not suggest that improvement in institutional quality is a major factor in attracting foreign direct investment flows to MENA countries.

Research limitations/implications

The research provides startling evidence that illustrates how institutions have impacted macroeconomic performance and the underlying roots of institutional quality. Addressing shortcomings in institutions should top the policy agenda in an effort to drive the growth process.

Practical implications

Improving institutional quality will distribute the benefits of growth and enhance macroeconomic performance in the MENA region, which is rich in endowed resources. Nonetheless, the region lacks fundamentals of economic management and quality governance to utilize resources in the most efficient and productive fashion in order to maximize the welfare for a growing population that is constantly seeking productive opportunities to secure employment and a higher real standard of living.

Originality/value

The MENA region is understudied and worthy of much more empirical work. Many cross‐country studies of the determinants of growth omit oil‐producing nations. Focusing on this oil‐rich region is an attempt to fill this void. Unlike previous literature on the relationship between institutions and growth, the paper's approach to the issue analyzes micro foundations in the transmission channel between institutions and economic growth.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 March 2021

Abdul Rashid, Assad Naim Nasimi and Rashid Naim Nasimi

The objective of this paper is threefold. First, it aims to empirically study whether firm-specific/idiosyncratic uncertainty, macroeconomic/aggregate uncertainty and…

Abstract

Purpose

The objective of this paper is threefold. First, it aims to empirically study whether firm-specific/idiosyncratic uncertainty, macroeconomic/aggregate uncertainty and political uncertainty have an adverse influence on firms' investment decisions in Pakistan. After establishing this, it scrutinizes whether the uncertainty effects on investment are different for firms of different sizes. Finally, it investigates whether any heterogeneity exists in the uncertainty impacts across different industries.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical analysis is based on an unbalanced panel data of 468 nonfinancial firms listed at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) during the period 2000–2018. Departing from the literature, the paper builds a time-varying composite volatility/uncertainty index based on the principal component analysis (PCA) by utilizing the constructed volatility series for sales, cash flows and return on assets to gauge firm-specific uncertainty for each firm included in the analysis. Likewise, the paper develops a PCA-based composite index for macroeconomic uncertainty by using the conditional variance series of consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPI), the interest rate and the exchange rate obtained by estimating the (generalized) autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic, (G)ARCH, models. Finally, political uncertainty is measured by political risk components maintained by the Political Risk Services Group. The empirical framework of the paper augments the standard investment equation by incorporating all three types of uncertainty. Firms are grouped into small, medium and large categories based on firms' total assets and the size indicators are generated. Next, the indicators are multiplied by each uncertainty measure to quantify the differential effects of uncertainty across firm size. Firms are also differentiated by sectors to explore the sector-based asymmetries in the uncertainty effects. The “robust two-step system generalized method of moments (2SYS GMM) (dynamic panel data) estimator” is applied to estimate the empirical models.

Findings

The results provide robust and strong evidence of the detrimental influence of all three types of uncertainty on investment. Yet, it is observed that the strength of the influence considerably varies across uncertainty types. In particular, compared to firm-specific uncertainty, both macroeconomic and political uncertainties have more unfavorable effects. The analysis also reveals that the effects of all three types of uncertainty are quite different at small, medium and large firms. Specifically, it is observed that although the investment of all firms is influenced adversely by magnified uncertainty, the adverse effects of all three kinds of uncertainty are quite stronger at small firms than medium and large firms. These findings support the phenomenon of size-based asymmetries in the effects of uncertainty on investment. The results also provide evidence that either type of uncertainty quite differently affects the investment policy of firms in different sectors.

Practical implications

The findings help different stakeholders to know how different types of uncertainty differently affect corporate firms' investments. Further, they suggest that firm size has a vital role in ascertaining the adverse effects of uncertainty on investment. The paper identifies to which type of uncertainty investors and policymakers should care more about and to which types of firms and industries they should concern more during volatile times. Firms should have more fixed assets and expand their size to mitigate the detrimental effects on investment of internal and external uncertainties. The government should enhance the political stability to induce firms for a higher level of investment, which, in turn, will result in higher growth of the economy.

Originality/value

The originality of the paper is credited to four aspects. First, unlike most previous studies that have utilized a single volatility measure, this paper constructs composite uncertainty indices based on the weights determined by the PCA. Second, it examines the effect of political uncertainty over and above the effects of idiosyncratic and aggregate (macroeconomic uncertainty) for an emerging economy. Third, and most important, it provides first-hand empirical evidence on the role of firm size in establishing the asymmetric effects of uncertainty on investment. Finally, it provides evidence on the industry-based heterogeneity in the uncertainty effects.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 17 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 July 2021

Alina Stundziene, Vaida Pilinkienė and Andrius Grybauskas

This paper aims to identify the external factors that have the greatest impact on housing prices in Lithuania.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to identify the external factors that have the greatest impact on housing prices in Lithuania.

Design/methodology/approach

The econometric analysis includes stationarity test, Granger causality test, correlation analysis, linear and non-linear regression modes, threshold regression and autoregressive distributed lag models. The analysis is performed based on 137 external factors that can be grouped into macroeconomic, business, financial, real estate market, labour market indicators and expectations.

Findings

The research reveals that housing price largely depends on macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product growth and consumer spending. Cash and deposits of households are the most important indicators from the group of financial indicators. The impact of financial, business and labour market indicators on housing price varies depending on the stage of the economic cycle.

Practical implications

Real estate market experts and policymakers can monitor the changes in external factors that have been identified as key indicators of housing prices. Based on that, they can prepare for the changes in the real estate market better and take the necessary decisions in a timely manner, if necessary.

Originality/value

This study considerably adds to the existing literature by providing a better understanding of external factors that affect the housing price in Lithuania and let predict the changes in the real estate market. It is beneficial for policymakers as it lets them choose reasonable decisions aiming to stabilize the real estate market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 15 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 April 2018

Sulait Tumwine, Samuel Sejjaaka, Edward Bbaale and Nixon Kamukama

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of interest rate in emerging markets, focusing on banking financial institutions in Uganda.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of interest rate in emerging markets, focusing on banking financial institutions in Uganda.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the net interest margin model, interest rate was estimated by applying a panel random effects regression method on 24 banks, while controlling for bank-specific factors, industry and macroeconomic indicators. Data were drawn from annual reports provided by Bank of Uganda Depository Corporation survey from 2008 to 2016.

Findings

The results indicate that liquidity, equity capital, market power and reserve requirement have a positive effect on interest rate. The study further finds that operational efficiency, lending out ratio, concentration, public sector borrowing and private sector credit have a negative effect on interest rate. However, credit risk does not influence interest rate.

Research limitations/implications

Studied banks are grouped in one panel data set; future studies would focus on the differences in banks and establish how these differences affect interest rate. Future study would also focus on how the determinants of interest rate in Uganda are compared with those of other banks in other emerging market countries.

Practical implications

Bank managers need to take interest in equity mobilization because it is a reliable and cheaper source of funding bank operations. Banks should emphasize efficient operations to reduce on the cost of doing business. Government should utilize funds borrowed from banks in efficient ways to improve economic growth. The central bank should minimize the use of reserve requirement as a means of controlling money in circulation.

Originality/value

This is the first paper that uses annual report data from several banks and periods to investigate the determinants of interest rate in an emerging country.

Details

World Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development, vol. 14 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-5961

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2011

Magda Kandil

The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to study the determinants of financial flows, portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, and the impact of…

2731

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to study the determinants of financial flows, portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, and the impact of these determinants on economic variables in samples of developing and advanced countries. The analysis then turns to an evaluation of the effects of external flows on economic activity.

Design/methodology/approach

To that end, the paper follows a two‐step procedure. First, the paper estimates a series of reduced‐form equations in differenced form, using annual data, for the current and the financial account balances as well as important underlying components, using a number of macroeconomic indicators reflecting the state of the business cycle as explanatory variables. These include not only a measure of economic growth, but also other factors that vary cyclically, such as the exchange rate and energy prices. In addition, the paper examines the effect of positive and negative shocks to these and other cyclical variables on components of the balance of payments. Second, the results are summarized in three directions. First, cross‐country correlations evaluate time‐series co‐movements between the current account balance and external flows with respect to major determinants of cyclicality across the samples of advanced and developing countries. Second, time‐series regressions evaluate the direct effects of financial flows on the current account balance within the samples of developing and advanced countries. Third, cross‐country regressions evaluate the impact of movements in trend and variability of financial flows on major economic indicators across the samples of developing and advanced countries.

Findings

The results are summarized in three directions. Across the samples of advanced and developing countries, the pervasive evidence highlights the negative correlation between the responses of the current account balance and the financial balance with respect to the various sources of cyclicality in the time‐series model. Second, using time‐series regressions the bulk of the evidence indicates that an increase in financial flows helps finance a widening current account deficit. Third, cross‐country regressions evaluate the impact of movements in trend and variability of financial flows on major economic indicators across the samples of developing and advanced countries. While FDI flows appear significant in differentiating growth performance within and across developing countries, their effects appear to be limited on growth performance in advanced countries. Portfolio flows are more relevant, compared to FDI flows, to financing a wider current account deficit, both in developing and advanced countries.

Originality/value

Overall, the evidence presented in this paper establishes the importance of financial flows to external balances and macroeconomic performance within and across the samples of developing and advanced countries. In light of this evidence, macroeconomic policies should target a combination of external balances that can be easily financed by external inflows and align domestic policies to achieve the desired cyclicality in external balances, available financing, and macroeconomic performance.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 November 2008

Salina H. Kassim and Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the information content of the Islamic interbank money market rate (IIMMR), with respect to several macroeconomic indicators such…

2720

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the information content of the Islamic interbank money market rate (IIMMR), with respect to several macroeconomic indicators such as output, inflation, exports, imports, bank loans and stock market index, and compare it against that of the conventional interbank money market rate using the Malaysian data.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper relies on the causality tests based on the Toda‐Yamamoto method, focusing on the period from January 2000 to December 2006.

Findings

The results provide empirical support for the high information content of the IIMMR.

Practical implications

A major implication of this study is that the IIMMR can be a reliable variable for monetary policy implementation in the Malaysian case.

Originality/value

There have been no studies undertaken in the area of Islamic finance to analyze the information content of the Islamic money market rate to determine its possibility as a monetary policy variable. Alos, the paper enriches the literature by presenting the Malaysian experience in developing its Islamic interbank money market.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 1 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 October 2022

Wasanthi Madurapperuma

This study aims to examine the short- and long-term equilibrium relationship between All share price index (ASPI), macroeconomic variables and the economic crisis in Sri Lanka.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the short- and long-term equilibrium relationship between All share price index (ASPI), macroeconomic variables and the economic crisis in Sri Lanka.

Design/methodology/approach

Monthly time series data for inflation (CPI), industrial production (IP), an exchange rate (EX), an interest rate (TB), short-term interest rate (CD) and economic crisis were used from 2010 to 2021. The ADF test, the bound testing approach, the CUSUM test and the CUSUMQ test were used in this study.

Findings

The findings show a long-run stable relationship between stock price, macroeconomic variables and political crisis (i.e., CPI, IP, ER, TB, CD and economic crisis). The results of the Johansen cointegration test suggest that there is at least one cointegrating equation, indicating that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Sri Lanka.

Research limitations/implications

The vector error correction estimates show that the coefficient of the error correction term is significant with a negative sign, indicating that a long-run dynamic relationship exists between macroeconomic variables and stock prices. In the short term, economic crisis has had a big effect on stock prices suggesting that Sri Lanka’s domestic financial markets are linked to the stability of the country.

Originality/value

This research establishes the links between stock returns, macroeconomic variables and economic crisis. So far, research has been unable to establish the empirical nature of such links. The authors believe that this paper fills that gap.

Details

Journal of Money and Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-2596

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 June 2013

Mine Aysen Doyran

This paper aims to examine the relationship between performance and some macro and micro variables in the Argentine commercial banking industry. Included are the…

2105

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the relationship between performance and some macro and micro variables in the Argentine commercial banking industry. Included are the profitability and interest variables; return on assets (ROA) and net interest margin (NIM) over the period of 1994 to 2011.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical construct is guided by recent theories of banking performance that employ an industrial organization framework and two dependent variables (with identical control variables) to assure robustness and comparability in findings. The variables for the panel estimated generalized least square (panel EGLS) are constructed using income statements of 62 commercial banks (firm‐level data) as well as a number of industry‐specific and macroeconomic indicators.

Findings

Factors such as expense management (operating cost efficiency/inefficiency), leverage and liquidity appear to be important forces behind the net interest margins (NIM) and profits (ROA) in the Argentine banking industry. Higher return on assets (ROA) is associated with banks carrying less leverage and therefore displaying a lower ratio of debt to total assets. Higher interest margin (NIM) is associated with higher operating expenses. Regarding the macroeconomic variables, inflation negatively affects profitability but is positively and significantly related to net interest margin. Banking environment has a positive effect on performance, reflecting the complementarity between banking performance and stock market capitalization.

Originality/value

The paper's value lies in showing that a firm's specific variables reveal better insights when analyzed in relation to banking environment. Indirectly, some of the value of this work lies in highlighting the Central Bank's accommodative monetary policy that has been driving Argentina's economic recovery and credit boom arising in an inflationary environment.

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