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Dynamics of Financial Stress and Economic Performance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78754-783-4

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Abstract

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Dynamics of Financial Stress and Economic Performance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78754-783-4

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Abstract

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Dynamics of Financial Stress and Economic Performance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78754-783-4

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Article

José Luis Zafra‐Gómez, Antonio M. López‐Hernández, Ana María Plata Díaz and Gemma Pérez López

Financial stress features frequently as an explanatory factor in research into decisions concerning the contracting out, or decentralisation, of local public services…

Abstract

Purpose

Financial stress features frequently as an explanatory factor in research into decisions concerning the contracting out, or decentralisation, of local public services, though existing empirical studies are not unanimous in their conclusions. The understanding of how financial crises influence these processes could be enhanced by the use of a dynamic methodology that takes into account the following three aspects: the duration of the financial stress, the effectiveness of the action taken and the time‐lag between the crisis and the response. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Design/methodology/approach

This study introduces three important innovations in the methodology employed to study financial stress: the consideration of the duration of a financial stress episode as a key factor in promoting changes in the provision of public services; the effectiveness of the measures taken; and time‐lag, which takes into account the extended time horizon over which the local authority may implement business‐like and organisational changes.

Findings

To date, the techniques used to measure the effects of changes in service delivery methods implemented to alleviate financial stress, have not reflected the true nature of the phenomenon. The results obtained when the new approach proposed in this paper was used to examine Spanish local government responses to financial stress during the period 1999‐2007 confirm that the methodology is well‐judged and effective.

Originality/value

This study reveals that local authorities facing financial stress of two, three or four years’ duration present percentages of decentralisation and contracting‐out that are significantly higher than is the case for local authorities that implement the same processes in response to crises of one year. These findings confirm the need to carry out studies that include the duration of financial crises as a determinant factor in change processes.

Resumen

El estrés financiero como factor explicativo es una característica recurrente en la investigación sobre la privatización/descentralización de los servicios públicos locales, aunque los estudios empíricos previos no son unánimes en sus conclusiones. Nuestro conocimiento de la influencia de las crisis financieras en estos procesos se podría mejorar mediante el uso de una metodología dinámica que tenga en cuenta los tres aspectos siguientes: la duración de la tensión financiera, el tiempo que transcurre entre la crisis y la respuesta hecha, y la eficacia de esta acción. Al aplicar esta nueva metodología, se demuestra que, hasta la fecha, los métodos utilizados para medir los efectos de los cambios en las formas de prestación de servicios, como un medio de aliviar la tensión financiera, no han reflejado la verdadera naturaleza del fenómeno. Los resultados obtenidos con esta nueva propuesta confirman que la metodología aplicada es la correcta y efectiva en los gobiernos locales españoles para el período 1999‐2007.

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Academia Revista Latinoamericana de Administración, vol. 27 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1012-8255

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Abstract

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Dynamics of Financial Stress and Economic Performance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78754-783-4

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Article

Sruti Mundra and Motilal Bicchal

The purpose of this study is to assess alternative financial stress indicators for India in terms of tracing crisis events, mapping with the business cycle and the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to assess alternative financial stress indicators for India in terms of tracing crisis events, mapping with the business cycle and the macroeconomic effect of stress indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The study constructs the composite indicator of systemic stress of Hollo, Kremer and Lo Duca (2012) for India using two different methods for computing time-varying cross-correlation matrix, namely, exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH). The derived indices are evaluated with widely used, equal variance and principal component weighting indices in terms of tracing stress events, mapping with the business cycles and the macroeconomic effect. For this purpose, the study identifies various episodes of financial stress and uses the business cycle dates in the sample covering from January 2001 to October 2018.

Findings

The results suggest that stress indices based on EWMA and DCC-GARCH accurately identify the well-known stress periods and capture the recession dates and show an adverse effect on economic activity. Primarily, the DCC-GARCH-based stress index emerges as a better indicator of stress because it efficiently locates all the major-minor events, traces the build-up of stress and reverts to the normal level during stable times.

Practical implications

The DCC-GARCH-based stress index is a very useful indicator for policymakers in regularly monitoring India’s financial conditions and providing timely identification of systemic stress to avoid adverse repercussion effects of the financial crisis.

Originality/value

The 2007–2008 financial crisis and subsequent recurrent instability in the financial markets highlighted the requirement for an appropriate financial stress indicator for a timely assessment of the system-wide financial stress. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates the systemic nature of financial stress in the construction of stress indices for India and provides a holistic evaluation of the financial stress from an emerging country’s perspective.

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Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 13 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

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Article

Amanjot Singh and Manjit Singh

With the globalization and liberalization in terms of increasing financial flows across the countries, the policy makers around the world are not independent in the…

Abstract

Purpose

With the globalization and liberalization in terms of increasing financial flows across the countries, the policy makers around the world are not independent in the context of monetary and fiscal policy initiatives. In this regard, this paper aims to attempt to quantify and capture long run, short run as well as time-varying linkages among the two financial stress indices, namely, Kansas City Financial Stress Index (KCFSI) and Indian Financial Stress Index (IFSI) across the monthly period (2004 to 2014).

Design/methodology/approach

Owing to the non-existence of a standardized financial stress index with regards to the Indian financial system, the study has developed an index/stress indicator using principal component analysis. Furthermore, to comprehend the linkages, the study uses bivariate Johansen cointegration model, vector error correction model, impulse response functions (IRF), variance decomposition analysis (VDA), Toda-Yamamoto’s Granger causality test and, finally, bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (BVGARCH) (1,1) model under constant conditional correlation (CCC) framework.

Findings

The results report a stochastic trend among the two indices wherein the US financial system acts as a source of a shock causing disequilibrium in the long run co-movement. About 40 per cent of the adjustments take place in one month and rest in the coming months. Both the IRF and VDA report a greater degree impact of the US financial stress on the Indian financial system. Moreover, there is a uni-directional short run causality running from the stress in the US financial system to the Indian financial stress. Furthermore, the co-movement between the US and Indian financial stress reached to its maximum significant level during the sub-prime crisis even confirmed by the Markov switching model results.

Practical implications

Overall, the results provide an insight to the financial market investors both domestic as well as international in their act of risk management. The financial stress prevailing in an economy further has an impact on different economic factors like foreign exchange rates, interest rates, yield curves, equity market returns and volatility. So, the empirical results support strong implications for the Indian policy makers as well as investors in the Indian financial markets.

Originality/value

The present study contributes to the literature in three senses. First, the study considers indices reflecting financial stress in the Indian as well as US financial system. Second, the study captures long run as well as short run linkages among the financial stress indices relating to a developed and an emerging market. Finally, the study uses CCC-BVGARCH (1,1) model to account for the time-varying co-movement among the financial stress indices. This helps in comprehending time-varying nature of the co-movement of the stress in the financial system prevalent in the respective markets.

Details

International Journal of Law and Management, vol. 59 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-243X

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Article

Krishna Prasad Pokharel, Madhav Regmi, Allen M. Featherstone and David W. Archer

The purpose of this paper is to identify financial stress and the causes of financial stress for agricultural cooperatives and provide management recommendations to…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to identify financial stress and the causes of financial stress for agricultural cooperatives and provide management recommendations to stakeholders including cooperatives’ managers, boards of directors and lenders.

Design/methodology/approach

This research used the geometric mean of the real rate of return on equity to identify financially stressed agricultural cooperatives. The real rate of return on equity allows the allocation of total financial stress among the return on assets, leverage and interest rate issues.

Findings

This study found that financially non-stressed agricultural cooperatives had a higher rate of return on equity and rate of return on assets, but lower leverage ratios and interest rates than stressed agricultural cooperatives. Further, non-stressed cooperatives had higher total assets and sales compared to stressed cooperatives. This suggests that smaller cooperatives are more likely to face financial stress than larger cooperatives. The decomposition of the financial problem showed that a substantial percentage of financial stress was correlated with a low return on assets or profitability. A smaller percentage of financial stress was due to financing decisions.

Originality/value

This study provides value by measuring the impact of profitability, leverage and interest rate on the financial performance of agricultural cooperatives. Results showed that a substantial proportion of financial stress was associated with a low return on assets. This indicates that profitability is a problem for agricultural cooperatives. This study also examines profitability during a period of volatile returns in production agriculture.

Details

Agricultural Finance Review, vol. 79 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-1466

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Article

Amanjot Singh and Manjit Singh

The authors aim to report empirical linkages between the US and Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) financial stress indices catalyzing catalyzing dependent economic…

Abstract

Purpose

The authors aim to report empirical linkages between the US and Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) financial stress indices catalyzing catalyzing dependent economic policy initiatives (an extended version of Singh and Singh, 2017a).

Design/methodology/approach

Initially, the study develops financial stress indices for the respective BRIC financial markets. Later, it captures linkages among the said US-BRIC indices by using Johansen cointegration, vector autoregression/vector error correction models (VECM), generalized impulse response functions, Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality, variance decomposition analyses and bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model under constant conditional correlation framework, in general. Markov regime switching and efficient causality tests proposed by Hill (2007) are also used.

Findings

Overall, there are both short-run and long-run dynamic interactions observed between the US and Indian financial stress indices. For rest of the markets, only short-run interactions are found to be in existence. The time-varying co-movement coefficients report financial contagion impact of the US financial crisis on Russian and Indian financial systems only. Contrary to this, Brazilian and Chinese financial systems are largely exhibiting interdependence with the US financial system. Efficient causality tests report indirect impact of the Russian financial system on Brazilian via auxiliary Indian financial system.

Originality/value

The present study is the first of its kind capturing linkages among the US-BRIC financial stress indices by using diverse econometric models. The results support different market participants and policymakers in understanding effectiveness and implementation of economic policies while considering their cross-market interactions as well.

Details

International Journal of Law and Management, vol. 59 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-243X

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Abstract

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Tools and Techniques for Financial Stability Analysis
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78756-846-4

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