Search results

The objective of the paper is to explore the out-of-sample forecasting connections in income growth across the globe.

An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework is employed and the forecasting performance is analyzed across several horizons using different forecast combination techniques.

Results show that the foreign country's income provides superior forecasts beyond what is provided by the country's own past income movements. Superior forecasting power is particularly held by Belgium, Korea, New Zealand, the UK and the US, while these countries' income is rather difficult to predict by global counterparts. Contrary to conventional wisdom, improved forecasts of income can be obtained even for longer horizons using our approach. Results also show that the forecast combination techniques yield higher forecasting gains relative to individual model forecasts, both in magnitude and the number of countries.

The forecasting paths of income movement across the globe reveal that predictive power greatly differs across countries, regions and forecast horizons. The countries that are difficult to predict in the short run are often seen to be predictable by global income movements in the long run.

Even while it is difficult to predict the income movements at an individual country level, combining information from the income growth of several countries is likely to provide superior forecasting gains. And these gains are higher for long-horizon forecasts as compared to the short-horizon forecast.

In evaluating the forward-looking social implications of economic policy changes, the policymakers should also consider the possible global forecasting connections revealed in the study.

Employing an ARDL model to explore global income forecasting connections across several forecast horizons using different forecast combination techniques.

Using real-time data from the University of Luxembourg’s COME-HERE nationally representative panel survey, covering more than 8,000 individuals across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Sweden, the author investigates how income distributions and poverty rates have changed from January to September 2020. The author finds that poverty rates increased on average in all countries from January to May and partially recovered in September. The increase in poverty is heterogeneous across countries, with Italy being the most affected and France the least; within countries, COVID-19 contributed to exacerbating poverty differences across regions in Italy and Spain. With a set of poverty measures from the Foster–Greer–Thorbecke family, the author then explores the role of individual characteristics in shaping different poverty profiles across countries. Results suggest that poverty increased disproportionately more for young individuals, women, and respondents who had a job in January 2020 – with different intensities across countries.

Price becomes a main instrument for rationing pharmaceutical drugs in Central America as a consequence of pro‐market reforms implemented in the 1980s. Under market‐rationing conditions, people's access to branded drugs does depend on their purchasing power and on the vector of prices they face. The purpose of this paper is to study the regional pricing strategy followed by pharmaceutical firms across Central American countries. These countries differ in such economic factors as per capita income, income distribution, market size, and nature and extent of their social‐security system; thus, there are conditions that foster the implementation of price‐discrimination practices across the region.

The investigation takes advantage of a large database with information about prices of identical drugs sold across Central American countries and produced by 17 large pharmaceutical companies. Regression analyses are used to study whether price discrimination exists in Central American drug markets and what pricing strategies are followed by different pharmaceutical companies.

Results show that there are significant differences in the prices of identical drugs across the Central American countries, as well as that pharmaceutical companies follow different pricing strategies.

Cross‐country price comparisons are usually based on constructed price indices, which imply losing detailed information about the products being compared. This investigation uses prices of identical drugs, rather than constructed price indices, to study cross‐country price differences by pharmaceutical companies across the Central American region. The study of price discrimination is crucial to understanding how markets end up rationing such an essential product as pharmaceutical drugs.

This paper places what has happened to income inequality in rich countries over recent decades alongside trends in median and low incomes in real terms, taken as incomplete but valuable indicators of the evolution of living standards for “ordinary working families” and the poor. The findings demonstrate first just how varied country experiences have been, with some much more successful than others in generating rising real incomes around the middle and toward the bottom of the distribution. This variation is seen to be only modestly related to the extent to which income inequality rose, which itself is more varied across the rich countries than is often appreciated. The extent to which economic growth is transmitted to the middle and lower parts of the distribution is seen to depend on a range of factors of which inequality is only one. Sources of real income growth around the middle have also varied across countries, though transfers are consistently key toward the bottom. The diversity of rich country experiences should serve as an important corrective to a now-common “grand narrative” about inequality and stagnation based on the experience of the USA.

In large parts of the world, income inequality has been rising in recent decades. Other regions have experienced declining trends in income inequality. This raises the question of which mechanisms underlie contrasting observed trends in income inequality around the globe. To address this research question in an empirical analysis at the aggregate level, we examine a global sample of 73 countries between 1981 and 2010, studying a broad set of drivers to investigate their interaction and influence on income inequality. Within this broad approach, we are interested in the heterogeneity of income inequality determinants across world regions and along the income distribution. Our findings indicate the existence of a small set of systematic drivers across the global sample of countries. Declining labour income shares and increasing imports from high-income countries significantly contribute to increasing income inequality, while taxation and imports from low-income countries exert countervailing effects. Our study reveals the region-specific impacts of technological change, financial globalisation, domestic financial deepening and public social spending. Most importantly, we do not find systematic evidence of education’s equalising effect across high- and low-income countries. Our results are largely robust to changing the underlying sources of income Ginis, but looking at different segments of income distribution reveals heterogeneous effects.

Improving the nutritious quality of diets for individuals and populations is a central goal of many public health advocates and intergovernmental organizations. Yet the outcome of healthy eating has been shown to systematically vary across individual-level socioeconomic lines, and across countries in different locations of the food system. We therefore assess variation in the association between eating nutritionally dense fresh fruits and vegetables and both self-rated health (SRH) and body mass index (BMI) across individual income and country locations in the food system.

We use nationally representative survey data from 31 countries drawn from the International Social Survey Programme’s 2011 Health module. We estimate the effect of the frequency of eating fresh fruits and vegetables using random-intercept, random-coefficient multilevel mixed-effects regression models.

We confirm that eating nutritionally dense fresh fruits and vegetables frequently associates with more positive health outcomes. However, this general conclusion masks substantial individual- and country-level heterogeneity. For both SRH and BMI, the largest beneficial associations are concentrated among the most affluent individuals in the most affluent countries. Moving away from either reduces the positive association of healthy eating.

Our results provide an important wrinkle for policies aimed at changing the nutritional quality of diets. Adjustments to diets without taking into account fundamental causes of socioeconomic status will likely be met with attenuated results.

We compare two important health outcomes across a wide variety of types of countries. We demonstrate that our main conclusions are only detectable when employing a flexible multilevel methodological design.

Using harmonized wealth data and a novel decomposition approach in this literature, we show that cohort effects exist in the income profiles of asset and debt portfolios for a sample of European countries, the United States, and Canada. We find that the association between household wealth portfolios at the intensive margin (the level of assets) and household characteristics is different from that found at the extensive margin (the decision to own). Characteristics explain most of the cross-country differences in asset and debt levels, except for housing wealth, which displays large unexplained differences for both the under-50 and over-50 populations. However, there are cohort differences in the drivers of wealth levels. We observe that younger households’ levels of wealth, given participation, may be more responsive to the institutional setting than mature households. Our findings have important implications, indicating a scope for policies which can promote or redirect investment in housing for both cohorts and which promote optimal portfolio allocation for mature households.

Aim of the present monograph is the economic analysis of the role of MNEs regarding globalisation and digital economy and in parallel there is a reference and examination of some legal aspects concerning MNEs, cyberspace and e‐commerce as the means of expression of the digital economy. The whole effort of the author is focused on the examination of various aspects of MNEs and their impact upon globalisation and vice versa and how and if we are moving towards a global digital economy.

This paper reviews one of the crucial issues in the recent growth literature concerning the hypothesis of cross country convergence of levels and growth rates of income per capita implied by the neo‐classical growth model, both in the Solow‐Swan and Rampsey‐Cass‐Koopmans versions. The alternative endogenous growth models, consistent with permanent income inequality, are considered. Convergence to a common income level versus divergence is discussed from a theoretical point of view. Then, empirical tests of the convergence property are presented. What emerges is that Barro type regressions and their findings about “conditional” convergence are questionable and cannot be used to give a definitive response on this issue.