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Article
Publication date: 20 January 2023

Ujjawal Sawarn and Pradyumna Dash

This study aims to examine the uncertainty spillover among eight important asset classes (cryptocurrencies, US stocks, US bonds, US dollar, agriculture, metal, oil and gold) using…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the uncertainty spillover among eight important asset classes (cryptocurrencies, US stocks, US bonds, US dollar, agriculture, metal, oil and gold) using weekly data from 2014 to 2020. This study also examines the US macro uncertainty and US financial stress spillover on these assets.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use time–frequency connectedness method to study the uncertainty spillover among the asset classes.

Findings

This study’s findings revealed that the uncertainty spillover is time-varying and peaked during the 2016 oil supply glut and COVID-19 pandemic. US stocks are the highest transmitter of uncertainty to all other assets, followed by the US dollar and oil. US stocks (US dollar and oil) transmit uncertainty in long (short) term. Furthermore, US macro uncertainty is the net transmitter of uncertainty to the US stocks, industrial metals and oil markets. In contrast, US financial stress is the net transmitter of uncertainty to the US bonds, cryptocurrencies, the US dollar and gold markets. US financial stress (US macro uncertainty) has long (short)-term effects on asset price volatility.

Originality/value

This study complements the studies on volatility spillover among the important asset classes. This study also includes recently financialized asset classes such as cryptocurrencies, agricultural and industrial commodities. This study examines the macro uncertainty and financial stress spillover on these assets.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 40 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 July 2020

Jingshan Liu

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of uncertainty, namely, macroeconomic uncertainty (MU) and financial uncertainty (FU) on foreign exchange market stability…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of uncertainty, namely, macroeconomic uncertainty (MU) and financial uncertainty (FU) on foreign exchange market stability, specifically on foreign exchange market pressure (EMP) and jump risk (RJV).

Design/methodology/approach

The latent threshold time-varying parameter VAR (LT-TVP-VAR) econometric approach is used in estimations to solve structural breaks.

Findings

The relationship of uncertainties and China's foreign exchange market stability is latent threshold nonlinear dynamic time-varying. In China's renminbi (RMB) appreciation stage, both MU and FU weaken the appreciation pressure of RMB. Moreover, MU and FU significantly increase the RJV, while MU significantly affects the RJV of the foreign exchange market. In the RMB depreciation stage, both MU and FU strengthen the EMP.

Research limitations/implications

Findings based on data in China's foreign exchange market can be considered for other global markets in future research.

Practical implications

An increase in MU and FU has a negative effect on foreign exchange stability. Regulators can prevent the economic system uncertainty shocks on foreign exchange market stability through observation and judgment of MU and FU, which helps prevent and relieve financial risks. Investors can reduce foreign exchange risk as the exchange rate rebounds after hedging behavior during high uncertainty periods.

Originality/value

The effect of MU on the foreign exchange market stability is greater than that of FU, regardless of whether EMP or RJV occurs in the foreign exchange market.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 11 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 December 2020

Peterson Kitakogelu Ozili

This paper aims to discuss financial reporting under economic policy uncertainty.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to discuss financial reporting under economic policy uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses discourse analysis to examine financial reporting under economic policy uncertainty.

Findings

The paper identifies the link between economic policy uncertainty and financial reporting, in terms of earnings management and fair value accounting. It argues that high economic policy uncertainty will transmit fewer new information to firms which can motivate managers to influence accounting numbers in the direction of the desired financial reporting outcome.

Originality/value

The relationship between economic policy uncertainty and financial reporting has not been studied. This paper is one of the first papers to relate economic policy uncertainty to financial reporting behavior.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 August 2020

Fatma Alahouel and Nadia Loukil

This paper aims to investigate the financial uncertainty vary according to different financial assets type: conventional and Islamic.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the financial uncertainty vary according to different financial assets type: conventional and Islamic.

Design/methodology/approach

Common factors are related to risk or known information. For this, the authors use general dynamic factor model to extract common variation between both types of indexes. Then they calculate stochastic volatility for each idiosyncratic component. They also carry out the study on three different family indexes respectively, Dow Jones, S&P and MSCI indexes, for the period going from January 1, 2008 to June 30, 2018. Through a comparison analysis with uncertainty index designed for conventional assets, the authors examine the similarity between the two indexes via mean, median and variance tests. They decrypt the interrelation between them by using OLS linear regression, vector autoregressive model.

Findings

The findings show that Islamic assets uncertainty is different from conventional uncertainty level. This difference can be due to the Shariah screening and the prohibition of gharar. The main findings suggest that Islamic financial uncertainty is lower than conventional one. The OLS results prove that conventional financial uncertainties have no impact on their Islamic counterparts. In addition, Islamic financial uncertainty appears to have no significant influence on conventional one exception for Dow Jones pair. Overall, the findings support the decoupling hypothesis in term of uncertainty only for SP and MSCI indexes.

Practical implications

Risk averse investors can find their claim in Shariah-compliant assets, as it offers a low level of financial uncertainty. A portfolio manager may benefit from the long run non-association in uncertainty between Islamic and conventional assets especially in time of crisis.

Originality/value

In this work, the authors measured financial uncertainty differently and take into account the specific features of each index type to improve the results quality.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 June 2022

Hedi Ben Haddad, Sohale Altamimi, Imed Mezghani and Imed Medhioub

This study seeks to build a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This index serves as a leading indicator of Saudi economic activity and helps to describe economic…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to build a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This index serves as a leading indicator of Saudi economic activity and helps to describe economic fluctuations and forecast economic trends.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts an extension of the Jurado et al. (2015) procedure by combining financial uncertainty factors with their net spillover effects on GDP and inflation to construct an aggregate financial uncertainty index. The authors consider 13 monthly financial variables for Saudi Arabia from January 2010 to June 2021.

Findings

The empirical results show that the constructed financial uncertainty estimates are good leading indicators of economic activity. The robustness analysis suggests that the authors’ proposed financial uncertainty estimators outperform the alternative estimates used by other existing approaches to estimate the financial conditions index.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt at constructing a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This study extends the empirical literature, from which the authors propose a novel conceptual framework for building a financial uncertainty index by combining the approach of Jurado et al. (2015) and the time-varying connectedness network approach proposed by Antonakakis et al. (2020)

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 January 2021

Fatma Alahouel and Nadia Loukil

This study examines co-movements between global Islamic index and heterogeneous rated/maturity sukuk. It tests the impact of financial uncertainty on these movements.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines co-movements between global Islamic index and heterogeneous rated/maturity sukuk. It tests the impact of financial uncertainty on these movements.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, we conduct a bivariate wavelet analysis to assess the co-movements between stocks and sukuk indexes. Secondly, we use General dynamic factor model and stochastic volatility to construct financial uncertainty index from Islamic stock indexes. Finally, we run regression analysis to determine the impact of uncertainty on the obtained correlations.

Findings

Our results suggest the absence of flight to quality phenomenon since correlations are positive especially at a short investment horizon. There is evidence of contagion phenomena across assets. Financial uncertainty may be considered as a determinant of stock-sukuk co-movements. Our results show that a rise in financial uncertainty induces correlation to move in the opposite direction in the short term, (exception for correlation with AA-Rated sukuk). However, the sign of stock market uncertainty becomes positive in the long term, which leads sukuk and stocks to move in the same direction (exception for 1–3 Year and AA Rated sukuk).

Practical implications

Investors may combine sukuk with 1–3 Year maturity and AA Rated when considering long holding periods. Further, all sukuk categories provide diversification benefit in time high financial uncertainty expectation for AA Rated sukuk when considering short holding periods.

Originality/value

To the best of our best knowledge, our study is the first investigation of the impact of financial uncertainty on Stock-sukuk co-movements and provides recommendation considering sukuk with different characteristics.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 17 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 7 September 2020

Marziyeh Hejranijamil, Afsane Hejranijamil and Javad Shekarkhah

Applying conservatism to the preparation of financial statements has been considered not only as a natural mechanism to protect the interests of the stockholders but also as a…

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Abstract

Purpose

Applying conservatism to the preparation of financial statements has been considered not only as a natural mechanism to protect the interests of the stockholders but also as a practical way to assist managers to deal with uncertainty in business environments. This study aimed to determine if increasing uncertainty can lead to raising the level of conservatism used in preparing financial statements. The result of the study could provide a better understanding of the factors that influence the level of applying conservative methods in accounting and financial reporting.

Design/methodology/approach

The model introduced by Basu (1997) was used to measure accounting conservatism. Business strategy and alertness were considered as two proxies for classifying companies according to their level of uncertainty. By adding each proxy of uncertainty to the model and using the financial data of 183 companies for five years (from 2013 to 2018), the multiple regression models were estimated through EViews. It was assumed that inert companies and those with prospector strategy face a higher level of uncertainty. Consequently, they were expected to report their financial status conservatively.

Findings

Findings revealed that companies, which adopted a prospector strategy, applied more conservative methods in their financial reports. This indicated that facing wider uncertainty results in reporting more conservatively, which could not be said about inert companies.

Originality/value

The current research is the first research undertaken in a developing country such as Iran, and the study's results may benefit other developing countries.

Details

Asian Journal of Accounting Research, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2443-4175

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 January 2021

Rexford Abaidoo

This study examines dynamics of global and regional financial market efficiency; and how specific features of the market and other conditions influence variability in such…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines dynamics of global and regional financial market efficiency; and how specific features of the market and other conditions influence variability in such efficiency.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs fixed effects statistical approach in its examination of how specific features of financial markets influence variability in its efficiency.

Findings

This study finds that individual IMF defined economic regions tend to exhibits significantly different financial market efficiency characteristics given specific market features and conditions. In regional level comparative analysis (e.g. Europe, Africa, Asia–Pacific etc.) this study finds that incidence of financial market uncertainty is the dominant condition with significant effect on financial market efficiency across all the IMF regions. In the global level analysis, empirical estimates presented suggest that financial market uncertainty, financial institutional depth and financial institutional efficiency tend to have significant positive influence on global financial market efficiency all things being equal. In the same analysis however, this study finds that financial market and financial institutional access growth has significant negative impact on financial market efficiency.

Originality/value

The uniqueness of this study compared to related ones found in the literature stems from its focus on financial market efficiency at the global, and IMF defined regional block level instead of on a specific economy as often found in the literature. Additionally, in contrast to other related studies, this study further examines the role of global financial market uncertainty in its financial market efficiency analysis. Financial market uncertainty variable may be unique to this study because the variable is derived through an econometric process from a base variable.

Details

American Journal of Business, vol. 36 no. 3/4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1935-5181

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 October 2021

Muhammad Saeed Meo, Kiran Jameel, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury and Sajid Ali

The purpose of the research is to analyze the impact of world uncertainty and pandemic uncertainty on Islamic financial markets. For representing Islamic financial markets four…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the research is to analyze the impact of world uncertainty and pandemic uncertainty on Islamic financial markets. For representing Islamic financial markets four different Islamic indices (DJ Islamic index, DJ Islamic Asia–Pacific index, DJ Islamic-Europe index and DJ Islamic-US) are taken.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs quantile-on-quantile regression approach to see the overall dependence structure of variables based on quarterly data ranging from 1996Q1 to 2020Q4. This technique considers how quantiles of world uncertainty and pandemic uncertainty asymmetrically affect the quantiles of Islamic stocks by giving an appropriate framework to apprehend the overall dependence structure.

Findings

The findings of the study confirm a strong negative impact of world uncertainty and world pandemic uncertainty on regional Islamic stock indices but the strength of the relationship varies according to economic conditions and across the regions. However, the world pandemic effect remains the same and does not change. Conversely, pandemic uncertainty has a larger effect on Islamic indices as compared to world uncertainty.

Practical implications

Our findings have significant implications for investors and policymakers to take proper steps before any uncertainty arise. A coalition of the central bank, government officials and investment bank regulators would be needed to tackle this challenge of uncertainty.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, none of the current works has considered the asymmetric impact of world and pandemic uncertainties on Islamic stock markets at both the bottom and upper quantiles of the distribution of data.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 39 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 October 2022

Zhenbin Yang, Sangwook Ha, Atreyi Kankanhalli and Sungyong Um

This study aims to examine factors influencing potential commercial innovators' intention to innovate with open government data (OGD) via a risk perspective.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine factors influencing potential commercial innovators' intention to innovate with open government data (OGD) via a risk perspective.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors develop a theoretical model that explains how different forms of uncertainty (i.e. financial, technology, competitive, demand, and data) and their inter-relationships influence potential commercial innovators' intention to innovate with OGD. The model is tested using survey data collected from 144 potential commercial innovators from a developed Asian country.

Findings

The results suggest that all other forms of uncertainty, except competitive uncertainty, negatively influence potential commercial innovators' intention to innovate, mediated by their perceived risk of innovating with OGD. The results also show positive relationships between different forms of uncertainty, i.e. competitive and financial, demand and competitive, data and financial uncertainty.

Originality/value

This paper identifies major forms of innovation uncertainty, perceived risk, their inter-relationships, and impacts on the intention to innovate with OGD. It also finds support for a unique form of uncertainty for OGD innovation (i.e. data uncertainty).

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