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Article
Publication date: 22 July 2021

Han Liu, Ying Liu, Gang Li and Long Wen

This study aims to examine whether and when real-time updated online search engine data such as the daily Baidu Index can be useful for improving the accuracy of tourism demand…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine whether and when real-time updated online search engine data such as the daily Baidu Index can be useful for improving the accuracy of tourism demand nowcasting once monthly official statistical data, including historical visitor arrival data and macroeconomic variables, become available.

Design/methodology/approach

This study is the first attempt to use the LASSO-MIDAS model proposed by Marsilli (2014) to field of the tourism demand forecasting to deal with the inconsistency in the frequency of data and the curse problem caused by the high dimensionality of search engine data.

Findings

The empirical results in the context of visitor arrivals in Hong Kong show that the application of a combination of daily Baidu Index data and monthly official statistical data produces more accurate nowcasting results when MIDAS-type models are used. The effectiveness of the LASSO-MIDAS model for tourism demand nowcasting indicates that such penalty-based MIDAS model is a useful option when using high-dimensional mixed-frequency data.

Originality/value

This study represents the first attempt to progressively compare whether there are any differences between using daily search engine data, monthly official statistical data and a combination of the aforementioned two types of data with different frequencies to nowcast tourism demand. This study also contributes to the tourism forecasting literature by presenting the first attempt to evaluate the applicability and effectiveness of the LASSO-MIDAS model in tourism demand nowcasting.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 33 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 January 2021

Fatma Alahouel and Nadia Loukil

This study examines co-movements between global Islamic index and heterogeneous rated/maturity sukuk. It tests the impact of financial uncertainty on these movements.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines co-movements between global Islamic index and heterogeneous rated/maturity sukuk. It tests the impact of financial uncertainty on these movements.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, we conduct a bivariate wavelet analysis to assess the co-movements between stocks and sukuk indexes. Secondly, we use General dynamic factor model and stochastic volatility to construct financial uncertainty index from Islamic stock indexes. Finally, we run regression analysis to determine the impact of uncertainty on the obtained correlations.

Findings

Our results suggest the absence of flight to quality phenomenon since correlations are positive especially at a short investment horizon. There is evidence of contagion phenomena across assets. Financial uncertainty may be considered as a determinant of stock-sukuk co-movements. Our results show that a rise in financial uncertainty induces correlation to move in the opposite direction in the short term, (exception for correlation with AA-Rated sukuk). However, the sign of stock market uncertainty becomes positive in the long term, which leads sukuk and stocks to move in the same direction (exception for 1–3 Year and AA Rated sukuk).

Practical implications

Investors may combine sukuk with 1–3 Year maturity and AA Rated when considering long holding periods. Further, all sukuk categories provide diversification benefit in time high financial uncertainty expectation for AA Rated sukuk when considering short holding periods.

Originality/value

To the best of our best knowledge, our study is the first investigation of the impact of financial uncertainty on Stock-sukuk co-movements and provides recommendation considering sukuk with different characteristics.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 17 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 August 2020

Fatma Alahouel and Nadia Loukil

This paper aims to investigate the financial uncertainty vary according to different financial assets type: conventional and Islamic.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the financial uncertainty vary according to different financial assets type: conventional and Islamic.

Design/methodology/approach

Common factors are related to risk or known information. For this, the authors use general dynamic factor model to extract common variation between both types of indexes. Then they calculate stochastic volatility for each idiosyncratic component. They also carry out the study on three different family indexes respectively, Dow Jones, S&P and MSCI indexes, for the period going from January 1, 2008 to June 30, 2018. Through a comparison analysis with uncertainty index designed for conventional assets, the authors examine the similarity between the two indexes via mean, median and variance tests. They decrypt the interrelation between them by using OLS linear regression, vector autoregressive model.

Findings

The findings show that Islamic assets uncertainty is different from conventional uncertainty level. This difference can be due to the Shariah screening and the prohibition of gharar. The main findings suggest that Islamic financial uncertainty is lower than conventional one. The OLS results prove that conventional financial uncertainties have no impact on their Islamic counterparts. In addition, Islamic financial uncertainty appears to have no significant influence on conventional one exception for Dow Jones pair. Overall, the findings support the decoupling hypothesis in term of uncertainty only for SP and MSCI indexes.

Practical implications

Risk averse investors can find their claim in Shariah-compliant assets, as it offers a low level of financial uncertainty. A portfolio manager may benefit from the long run non-association in uncertainty between Islamic and conventional assets especially in time of crisis.

Originality/value

In this work, the authors measured financial uncertainty differently and take into account the specific features of each index type to improve the results quality.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 February 2021

Apostolos Ampountolas and Mark P. Legg

This study aims to predict hotel demand through text analysis by investigating keyword series to increase demand predictions’ precision. To do so, this paper presents a framework…

1064

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to predict hotel demand through text analysis by investigating keyword series to increase demand predictions’ precision. To do so, this paper presents a framework for modeling hotel demand that incorporates machine learning techniques.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical forecasting is conducted by introducing a segmented machine learning approach of leveraging hierarchical clustering tied to machine learning and deep learning techniques. These features allow the model to yield more precise estimates. This study evaluates an extensive range of social media–derived words with the most significant probability of gradually establishing an understanding of an optimal outcome. Analyzes were performed on a major hotel chain in an urban market setting within the USA.

Findings

The findings indicate that while traditional methods, being the naïve approach and ARIMA models, struggled with forecasting accuracy, segmented boosting methods (XGBoost) leveraging social media predict hotel occupancy with greater precision for all examined time horizons. Additionally, the segmented learning approach improved the forecasts’ stability and robustness while mitigating common overfitting issues within a highly dimensional data set.

Research limitations/implications

Incorporating social media into a segmented learning framework can augment the current generation of forecasting methods’ accuracy. Moreover, the segmented learning approach mitigates the negative effects of market shifts (e.g. COVID-19) that can reduce in-production forecasts’ life-cycles. The ability to be more robust to market deviations will allow hospitality firms to minimize development time.

Originality/value

The results are expected to generate insights by providing revenue managers with an instrument for predicting demand.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 33 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 December 2021

Zohreh Doborjeh, Nigel Hemmington, Maryam Doborjeh and Nikola Kasabov

Several review articles have been published within the Artificial Intelligence (AI) literature that have explored a range of applications within the tourism and hospitality…

6100

Abstract

Purpose

Several review articles have been published within the Artificial Intelligence (AI) literature that have explored a range of applications within the tourism and hospitality sectors. However, how efficiently the applied AI methods and algorithms have performed with respect to the type of applications and the multimodal sets of data domains have not yet been reviewed. Therefore, this paper aims to review and analyse the established AI methods in hospitality/tourism, ranging from data modelling for demand forecasting, tourism destination and behaviour pattern to enhanced customer service and experience.

Design/methodology/approach

The approach was to systematically review the relationship between AI methods and hospitality/tourism through a comprehensive literature review of papers published between 2010 and 2021. In total, 146 articles were identified and then critically analysed through content analysis into themes, including “AI methods” and “AI applications”.

Findings

The review discovered new knowledge in identifying AI methods concerning the settings and available multimodal data sets in hospitality and tourism. Moreover, AI applications fostering the tourism/hospitality industries were identified. It also proposes novel personalised AI modelling development for smart tourism platforms to precisely predict tourism choice behaviour patterns.

Practical implications

This review paper offers researchers and practitioners a broad understanding of the proper selection of AI methods that can potentially improve decision-making and decision-support in the tourism/hospitality industries.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the tourism/hospitality literature with an interdisciplinary approach that reflects on theoretical/practical developments for data collection, data analysis and data modelling using AI-driven technology.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 34 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 November 2021

Marcello Mariani and Rodolfo Baggio

The purpose of this work is to survey the body of research revolving around big data (BD) and analytics in hospitality and tourism, by detecting macro topical areas, research…

3701

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this work is to survey the body of research revolving around big data (BD) and analytics in hospitality and tourism, by detecting macro topical areas, research streams and gaps and to develop an agenda for future research.

Design/methodology/approach

This research is based on a systematic literature review of academic papers indexed in the Scopus and Web of Science databases published up to 31 December 2020. The outputs were analyzed using bibliometric techniques, network analysis and topic modeling.

Findings

The number of scientific outputs in research with hospitality and tourism settings has been expanding over the period 2015–2020, with a substantial stability of the areas examined. The vast majority are published in academic journals where the main reference area is neither hospitality nor tourism. The body of research is rather fragmented and studies on relevant aspects, such as BD analytics capabilities, are virtually missing. Most of the outputs are empirical. Moreover, many of the articles collected relatively small quantities of records and, regardless of the time period considered, only a handful of articles mix a number of different techniques.

Originality/value

This work sheds new light on the emergence of a body of research at the intersection of hospitality and tourism management and data science. It enriches and complements extant literature reviews on BD and analytics, combining these two interconnected topics.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 34 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

Keywords

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