Impact of uncertainty on foreign exchange market stability: based on the LT-TVP-VAR model
China Finance Review International
ISSN: 2044-1398
Article publication date: 7 July 2020
Issue publication date: 26 January 2021
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of uncertainty, namely, macroeconomic uncertainty (MU) and financial uncertainty (FU) on foreign exchange market stability, specifically on foreign exchange market pressure (EMP) and jump risk (RJV).
Design/methodology/approach
The latent threshold time-varying parameter VAR (LT-TVP-VAR) econometric approach is used in estimations to solve structural breaks.
Findings
The relationship of uncertainties and China's foreign exchange market stability is latent threshold nonlinear dynamic time-varying. In China's renminbi (RMB) appreciation stage, both MU and FU weaken the appreciation pressure of RMB. Moreover, MU and FU significantly increase the RJV, while MU significantly affects the RJV of the foreign exchange market. In the RMB depreciation stage, both MU and FU strengthen the EMP.
Research limitations/implications
Findings based on data in China's foreign exchange market can be considered for other global markets in future research.
Practical implications
An increase in MU and FU has a negative effect on foreign exchange stability. Regulators can prevent the economic system uncertainty shocks on foreign exchange market stability through observation and judgment of MU and FU, which helps prevent and relieve financial risks. Investors can reduce foreign exchange risk as the exchange rate rebounds after hedging behavior during high uncertainty periods.
Originality/value
The effect of MU on the foreign exchange market stability is greater than that of FU, regardless of whether EMP or RJV occurs in the foreign exchange market.
Keywords
Citation
Liu, J. (2021), "Impact of uncertainty on foreign exchange market stability: based on the LT-TVP-VAR model", China Finance Review International, Vol. 11 No. 1, pp. 53-72. https://doi.org/10.1108/CFRI-07-2019-0112
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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