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Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse.

In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios.

The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research.

The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.

This paper aims to identify four areas in need of future research to enhance the theoretical understanding of scenario planning (SP), and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes.

This paper organizes existing contributions on SP within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on SP from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human resource management, operations management and psychology.

This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding SP as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular study may be located in the SP process and, importantly, how it may influence – or be influenced by – various factors in the process.

This study offers specific research questions and precise guidelines to future scholars pursuing research on SP.

This paper aims to describe the context and relevance of strategic foresight in the chemical industry. By using a case study of a multinational chemical company, the authors intend to show how global organizations use scenario planning as part of their strategic planning processes. Concentrating on scenario planning for regional strategies, the authors want to contribute to best practice of scenario methodology and ideally inspire academic research.

Reviewing the literature of scenario planning and strategy elaboration, the authors focus on the Hax strategy process of strategy formation, as been applied in the case study’s company. They explain the scenario creation process in detail using a concrete example of India. The outcomes of the scenario creation process are then linked to the Hax strategy process’s description, to identify where scenario planning has created concrete value. Finally, the authors describe lessons learnt and list best practices for practitioners.

Based on the analysis, the authors argue that scenario processes add value when embedded in established strategic planning processes. Lessons learned include among others that it is beneficial that the participants creating the scenarios are also those who join the strategy elaboration and that significant effort needs to go into systematically translating scenarios into implications for the organization.

This designed case study is based on the experience of 17 process iterations during a period of five years with over 170 participants during which the core scenario process moderator team did not change.

This paper aims to introduce movements in scenario methodology, to design a moving strategic foresight approach.

The authors firstly question the limits of plausibility from an ontological and epistemological perspective to expand scenarios beyond the boundaries of end-states. To incorporate ongoing changes in scenario methodology, the authors propose to explore scenario transformations within the conceptual framework of action-based scenarios.

The authors discuss consequences of playing strategies within ongoing scenarios, as well as the research directions about moving scales, stakeholders’ dominance and time issues.

The paper proposes a method to distort and transform scenarios. The authors suggest supplementing strategic foresight in iterative processes to challenge the boundaries of plausible futures, bridging the gap between theoretical ever-changing processes and the moving rhythms of actions.

Bank–fintech associations are significant globally, establishing purposeful eco-systems towards extending and complementing capabilities, reach and customer experiences. This paper aims to explore 39 leading fintechs in India catering across payments, lending, wealth management, regulation, neo-banks and other banking functions. Alongside fintechs, the research studies 19 leading banks (public and private) to understand the nature of bank–fintech associations in the Indian context.

The research focuses on narratives from leading banks and top fintechs in India, captured from public disclosures and leadership interviews. The study leverages qualitative research techniques, including grounded theory approaches of inductive analysis, to codify interview and narrative observations to discover relevant objectives, scenarios, challenges and outcomes in India-centric bank–fintech associations.

Bank–fintech associations in India are increasingly focusing on financial services portfolio diversification and improvement in customer experience. Simultaneously, both banks and fintechs, differentiate with innovations and extend offerings to target underserved customer segments. The associations are beneficial for both banks and fintechs in transforming offerings and improving efficiency, scale across channels. Through codification of observations, review of existing literature and evaluation of best practices, alongside subject matter expertise, the study evolves a generalized “Association Model”. The model can steer meaningful bank–fintech associations in India and globally. The association model relates to observables like objectives, enablers of bank–fintech associations, challenges and association-driven value outcomes. Built from study of practices, the proposed model is relevant for strategic orientation in bank–fintech associations.

The findings reveal practices in bank–fintech associations in India with significant learning opportunity for organizational leaders globally. Understanding the nature of association is relevant for strategic interventions, particularly in scenarios of inter-organization collaborations. Central banks, policymakers, governments, investors, banks and fintechs can use the derived association model to establish, govern and steer purposeful value-driven associations.

The case of Philips Lighting shows how management coped with the ambiguous but real threats and opportunities of a highly disruptive emerging technology using three insight-producing approaches: 10; 10;∙9; Probe and learn widely. 10;∙9; Explore creative hypotheses. 10;∙9; Develop multiple scenarios. 10;

The case shows how leadership teams can effectively respond when confronted with ambiguous but potentially disruptive signals.

When assessing a potential digital disruption, leaders can begin by probing the latent needs of current as well as potential customers more thoroughly. Once ‘probe and learn’ approaches have surfaced new perspectives and strategic possibilities, the organization should generate context-expanding hypotheses about the meaning and consequences of various weak signals.

A limited number of disparate scenarios, clearly organized around a few pivotal uncertainties, provide leaders with a strategic context for interpreting ambiguous signals.

In the current VUCA environmen, when turbulence is high or major disruption is feared, all leaders need to examine at least one scenario that directly challenges the organization’s current mindset.

This article shows how scenarios provide a powerful methodology to identify, connect, and assess the critical strategic and knowledge uncertainties they inevitably contain within them, the seeds of any organization’s future marketplace opportunities. Although these two types of uncertainties are quite distinct, scenarios furnish a proven means for senior managers and others to surface and grapple with these uncertainties as a means not just to learn about plausible futures that may confront them but also to better understand the current and emerging competitive context. The outcome is the capacity to upgrade the quality of the inputs to all phases of strategy development and execution.

This manuscript explores the evolving roles of HR professionals amidst global megatrends and organizational transitions, focusing on the Italian context, which has experienced disruptive adoption of new forms of work such as remote and hybrid work. In this challenging scenario, our research aims to uncover if and how HR professionals are transforming their roles or maintaining the status quo in navigating organizational changes, dealing with the upcoming working scenario, and challenging conventional perceptions of HR practitioners.

The study employs the social-symbolic work lens, that contributes to a deeper understanding of how HR professionals work to construct organizational life, the identities of employees, and the societal norms and assumptions that provide the context for organizational action. This perspective highlights HR professionals’ personal efforts, consisting of the emotional labor entailed in steering organizational transformations and, eventually, maintenance in a context where remote work has become prevalent. Data was collected through 16 online focus groups involving 76 HR professionals from Italian organizations.

Our research offers two interrelated contributions to HR literature. First, we provide pieces of evidence on how HR practitioners act as agents of change in two emerging roles: the “Wannabe Hero” and the “Ordinary Hero”. This challenges the prevailing rhetorical discourse about the so-called HR business partner. Secondly, we delve into the persistent obstacles that hinder HR professionals from making a substantial impact in addressing radical changes. These findings will provide useful insights into effectively engaging HR practitioners as agents of change in organizational transformation, shedding light on praxis, structures, and their emotional work.

The paper analyzes HR professionals’ social-symbolic work, which offers an original contribution to the comprehension of the activities they carry on in practice and the emotions they have been experiencing. These influence both the way HR professionals play their role and the organizational and institutional environment.