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The main objective of this study is to examine how political institutions affect economic performance in Ethiopia over the 1980–2019 time periods.

Mainly, the impact of political institution indicators including, level of democracy, political violence, democratic accountability and regime durability have been examined using auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach to co-integration and the error correction model.

This study confirms that level of democracy and democratic accountability has an adverse long effect on the economic performance of Ethiopia. On the other hand, political violence has a negative short-run causal effect on economic performance in Ethiopia. The study concluded that the deterioration of political institutions harmfully affected economic performance in Ethiopia.

Government policymakers should primarily pay attention to promoting and changing those political institutions that harm economic performance. Additionally, better management of political violence has important implications for fostering the economic performance of Ethiopia.

This study provides some valuable evidence on the nexuses between political institutions and economic performance in Ethiopia. Likely, this is the first investigation on the subject under the consideration to use time analysis and will vigorously contribute to the literature as well by employing the ADRL bound test. Previous studies have examined the impact of the institution on economic growth on a cross-country basis. Further analysis is required to understand the effects of institutions such as level of democracy, political violence and democratic accountability on economic development.

This study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate as additional inflation determinants.

The authors utilize an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the symmetric impact of external debt on inflation, while the asymmetric impact is examined using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model. The existence of a long-run relationship between inflation and external debt is tested using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration, and a vector error-correction model is estimated to determine the short parameters of equilibrium dynamics.

The linear ARDL model results show that external debt has no statistically significant impact on inflation in the long run. On the contrary, the results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative external debt shocks statistically affect inflation in the long run. The estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of the linear and nonlinear ARDL models reveal that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive impact on inflation. In contrast, the nominal effective exchange rate has a statistically significant negative impact on inflation.

The reliance on symmetric analysis may not be sufficient to uncover the existence of a linkage between external debt and inflation. Proper external debt management is crucial to control inflation rates in Sudan.

To date, no empirical study has assessed the external debt-inflation nexus and its potential asymmetry in Sudan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development and income inequality in India using annual data from 1982-2012.

Stationarity properties of the series are checked by using ADF, DF-GLS, KPSS and Ng- Perron unit root tests. The paper applied the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration to examine the existence of long run relationship; and error correction mechanism for the short run dynamics.

The co-integration test confirms a long run relationship between financial development and income inequality for India. The ARDL test results suggest that financial development, economic growth, inflation aggravates the income inequality in both long run and short run. However, trade openness reduces the gap between rich and poor in India.

The present recommend for appropriate economic and financial reforms focussing on financial inclusion to reduce income inequality in India.

Till date, there is hardly any study that makes a clear comparison between market-based indicator and bank based indicator of financial development in India and those examining the relationship between finance and income inequality nexus. Further there is hardly any study to include gini coefficient as a proxy for inequality for India and apply ARDL techniques of co-integration, using the basic principles of GJ hypothesis and provide short run and long run dynamics for India. So the contribution of the paper is to fill these research gaps.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Botswana over the period 1985‒2016. The study employed the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach in investigating the nexus. The study makes the argument that the effectiveness of public spending should be assessed not only against the amount of the expenditure but also by the type of the expenditure. The empirical findings showed that aggregate expenditure has a negative short-run and positive long-run effect on economic growth. When expenditure is disaggregated, both forms of expenditures have a positive short-run effect on economic growth, whereas only a long-run positive impact of recurrent expenditure is observed. The study suggests the need to prioritize scarce resources in productive recurrent and development spending that enables increased productivity.

This study examined the effectiveness of government spending in Botswana, within an ARDL framework from 1985 to 2016. To achieve this, the analysis is carried out on both an aggregate and disaggregated level. Government spending is divided into recurrent and development expenditures.

This study examined the effectiveness of government spending in Botswana, within an ARDL framework from 1985 to 2016. To achieve this, the analysis hinged on both the aggregate and disaggregated levels. The results of the aggregate analysis suggest that total public expenditure has a negative impact on economic growth in the short run; however, its impact becomes positive over the long run. On disaggregating government spending, the results show that both recurrent and development expenditures have a significant positive short-run impact on growth; however, in the long run, the significant positive impact is only observed for recurrent expenditure.

The results provide evidence of the diverse effects of government expenditure in the country. In the period under investigation, 73 percent of total government expenditure in Botswana was recurrent in nature, whereas 23 percent was related to development. From the results, it can be observed that although the recurrent expenditure has contributed to increased growth and must be encouraged, it is also pertinent for the Botswana Government to endeavor to place more emphasis on productive development expenditure in order to enhance short- and long-term growth. Further, there is a need to strengthen the growth-enhancing structures and to prioritize the scarce economic resources toward productive spending and ensuring continued proper governance over such expenditures.

The study provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of government spending in a small open, resource-reliant middle-income SSA economy and argues that the effectiveness of public spending must be assessed not only against the amount of the expenditure but also on the type or composition of the expenditure. The study contributes to the scant empirical literature on Botswana by employing the ARDL approach to cointegration technique in estimating the long- and short-run impact of government expenditure on economic growth between 1985 and 2016.

The degree of responsiveness of fiscal and monetary policy mechanisms that promote growth and development in Sierra Leone is the subject of this article.

This article uses both the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model presented by Hashem and Yongcheol (1998) and the Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model by Shin et al. (2014) to analyze annual time-series data in evaluating the asymmetric effect of real gross domestic product (RGDP), inflation, government expenditure and money supply using annual time-series data for 40 observations over the period 1980–2019.

The augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test shows that money supply, government spending and consumer price index are integrated at first difference I (1), while RGDP is stationary at level I (0). The results of the NARDL cointegration test indicate that the variables are cointegrated. The study shows that government expenditure is a positive function of both positive and negative changes. Hence, both positive and negative cumulative sum government expenditures improve economic growth but show a relative weak asymmetric effect with the regressand. This study also reveals that inflation is a negative function of both positive and negative changes with asymmetric effect with the dependent variable. This study shows that the positive change of money supply is statistically insignificant in boosting economic growth, while the negative change positively improves economic growth. Conclusively, this article shows that fiscal policy has a greater and more responsive than monetary policy in promoting growth and development in Sierra Leone. The result of the error correction term of the NARDL model shows a high spend of adjustment of 135% from any disequilibrium of GDP imbalance in the economy.

To address the problem of fiscal dominance in Sierra Leone, this study recommends that fiscal and monetary policies should be coordinated simultaneously and to an appropriate extent to achieve the desired outcome in growth and development.

The purpose of this paper is to find out empirically the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth and it will also highlight the relationship status between the variables included in the model, either long‐ or short‐run in case of China.

This study uses secondary data obtained from World Development Indicators over the period 1985‐2009, whose viability has also been checked through the World Bank and IFS. An Augmented Dickey‐Fuller (ADF) unit root test is used to estimate an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach to co‐integration as the variables in the model are in I(1) and I(0) form and the Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC) is used in this study to find out the estimated lags of the model, which are ultimately used to find out the short‐ and long‐run relationship of the variables included in the model. The error correction model (ECM) was also applied which basically provides information about the causal factors that may affect the variables included in the model.

The results provide evidence that there is an empirical relationship among FDI and economic growth. The computed value of F‐statistics is greater than the upper bond value described by Pesaran, M.H. et al., which depicts evidence against the null hypothesis of no effect and hence long‐run relationship among the variables is concluded at bottom line. Empirical evidence reveals that FDI has a positive effect on economic growth. An error correction model (ECM) is applied and the error correction term was negative and significant. This indicates that there exists a relationship between the variables. Diagnostic tests showed a lack of heteroscedisticity, confirming the validity of the model; CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests were used to reveal the model's stability.

The Government of China should keep keen emphasis on the ingredients of this study so that China could reap maximum share of FDI through the achievement of positive spillovers of foreign investment, which ultimately results in its economic growth. However, the ingredients of this study depict the expenditures on security status, growth options as well as on infrastructure. This study also gives better impending in decision making about FDI in case of China.

This study bridges the gap between theory and practice and proves empirically the relationship between FDI and economic growth through auto regressive distributive lag approach (ARDL) to co‐integration in case of China. This research includes most dominating factors in the model which differentiate it from all previous empirical researches related to FDI's relationship with economic growth. However, this study not only pin points the new dominating factors related to this kind of relationship, but also set up a new horizon in the field of research to get groundbreaking results – in case of other countries – by following the footings set by this research.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial sector development and poverty reduction in India using annual data from 1970 to 2012. The paper attempts to answer the critical question: does financial sector development lead to poverty reduction?

Stationarity properties of the series are checked by using Ng-Perron unit root test. The paper uses the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration to examine the existence of long-run relationship; error-correction mechanism for the short-run dynamics and Granger non-causality test to test the direction of causality.

The co-integration test confirms a long-run relationship between financial development and poverty reduction for India. The ARDL test results suggest that financial development and economic growth reduces poverty in both long run and short run. The causality test confirms that there is a positive and unidirectional causality running from financial development to poverty reduction.

This study implies that poverty in India can be reduced by financial inclusion and financial accessibility to the poor. For a fast growing economy with respect to financial sector development this may have far-reaching implication toward inclusive growth.

This paper is the first of its kind to empirically examine the causal relationship between financial sector development and poverty reduction in India using modern econometric techniques.

The Oman economy is dominated by production and export of petroleum products and an overdependence on oil revenue, which may have contributed to the continuance of the “resource curse” phenomenon. The purpose of this research is to examine the co-integration of oil with macroeconomic indicators of Oman and of suggesting some policy reform measures to trim down overdependence on oil.

The authors culled out data from the annual reports published by the Central Bank of Oman from 1975 to 2016. Considering oil price and oil export volume as regressors, the long-term integration with other macroeconomic indicators was examined by using the bound test. Further, auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was also derived to check the impact of these cross-sectional relations.

Oil price is observed to have a strong long-term significant relation with all the macroeconomic variables used in this study. However, the volumes of oil exports do not appear to have significant influence on GDP and consumption but do naturally sway other variables. This indicates that less elasticity of consumption to the flow of macro income, because the consumption in the Omani economy is driven by perceived future income. Oil export revenue is not seems to be much impacting on the real sector as the deficits are funded by the government through compensatory spending. Oil prices and oil exports have exhibited a strong long-term integration with variables such as gross domestic savings (GDS), credit to government (C2G), credit to private (C2P), demand deposits (DD) and time deposits (TD). This hints that oil boom does constitute the key source of funding of the financial sector of Oman.

This study offers a generalized submission to support the real sector of Oman to lead out of a resource curse through diversification. The study however does not provide industrial groupings to assess the impact of fluctuations in oil prices.

This research has confirmed the existence of “resource movement” effect and “spending effect” in Oman economy. The nation needs to take radical measures to come out of this phenomenon. For addressing this we have suggested the modified version of Shumpeterian model of creative destruction. In this model we call for demolishing the oil dependent structure with a diversification structure. The new move can bring more positive effect on real and financial sectors of the economy.

This study takes a disaggregated approach to investigate the impacts of long-run GDP on changes in total government expenditure in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) economies. An understanding of the relationship between changes in total government expenditure and GDP (by sector categories) is expected to provide a working tool to understand the growth debt nexus of Caribbean countries. The purpose of the paper is to use an auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM) to examine and analyse short- and long-run dynamics of disaggregated approach to both output and government expenditure in a dynamic model to identify the growth in the Eastern Caribbean Countries.

In an attempt to examine the long-run dynamics, data for the period 1970-2015 were used in an ARDL and ECM framework. The authors examine the long-run GDP impacts of changes in total government expenditure and in the shares of different spending categories for the ECCU countries to establish and analyse short and long-run dynamics.

The results suggest that total fiscal expenditure and disaggregated expenditure including debt services have both positively and negatively contributed to economic growth in the agriculture, manufacturing and mining sectors. Among others, the study found that high national debt in the region resulted primarily from increases in government expenses and diminishing income sources.

This paper is the first to take a disaggregated approach to investigate the relationship between economic growth and government expenditure in the Eastern Caribbean States. The authors’ empirical results suggest that debt servicing reduces economic growth both in the short and long run. The greatest impact being felt in the mining and manufacturing sectors, namely, 1 per cent increase in debt service will bring about 7.90 and 1.67 per cent decrease in economic growth. These results offer fairly strong support to the view that expenditure share variables can weaken sectoral growth, and hence force the overall growth to decline.

This study aims to find out the dynamic and causal long-run and the short-run relationship between energy consumption (electricity usage) and energy production (electricity creation) and also find out the relationship of these two variables based on past values for the SAARC nations (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal).

Vector auto-regressive (VAR), auto-regressive distributive Lag (ARDL) and Granger causality test have been used in this study to estimate the dynamic and causal relationship between variables.

The unit-root tests were found insignificant at a magnitude but significant at the initial difference. VAR test results were found insignificant, which means co-integration among variables exists, which was tested by ARDL approach. Results suggested that energy consumption has a short-run relationship with energy production, but it was found insignificant in the other way round. The results of this study also suggest that both variables cause each other in the long run.

This study was conducted in a limited environment as we do not have access to energy policies of SAARC countries, and also data access was limited; only five countries’ data was available. This study can help government bodies and policymakers to exchange the electricity across borders to diminish the electricity shortage in the SAARC region, as countries with abandoned resources can produce electricity at a little cost.

Penal data for this study was collected from World Development Indicators from the year 1971 to 2015.