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Article
Publication date: 11 February 2019

Mohsen Ahmadi and Rahim Taghizadeh

The purpose of this paper is to focus on modeling economy growth with indicators of knowledge-based economy (KBE) introduced by World Bank for a case study in Iran during…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to focus on modeling economy growth with indicators of knowledge-based economy (KBE) introduced by World Bank for a case study in Iran during 1993-2013.

Design/methodology/approach

First, for grouping and reducing the number of variables, Tukey method and the principal component analysis are used. Also for modeling, 67 per cent of data is used for training in the two approaches of ARDL bounds testing and gene expression programming (GEP) and 33 per cent of them for testing the models. Then, the result models are compared with fitness function and Akaike information criteria (AIC).

Findings

The GEP model with fitness 945.7461 for training data and 954.8403 for testing data from 1000 is better than ARDL bounds testing model with fitness 335.5479 from 1000. In addition, according to model comparison tools (AIC), the GEP model has an extremely larger weight in comparison with ARDL bounds model. Therefore, the GEP model is introduced for future use in academia.

Practical implications

Knowledge and information is one of the most basic sources of wealth in economists’ sight. Thus, using KBE indicators appears essential in economic growth regarding daily progress in knowledge processes and its different theories. It is also extremely important to determine an appropriate model for KBE indicators which play a highly important role in the allocation of the economic resources of the country in an optimal manner.

Originality/value

This paper introduced a novel expression for economy growth using KBE indicators. All the data and the indicators are extracted from Word Bank service between 1993 and 2013.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 December 2018

Abbas Ali Chandio, Yuansheng Jiang and Abdul Rehman

This study aims to empirically examine the relationship between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Pakistan over the period from 1984 to 2016.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to empirically examine the relationship between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Pakistan over the period from 1984 to 2016.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to investigate the long-run and short-run determinants of agricultural economic growth in Pakistan.

Findings

The results of the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration revealed that long-run linkage exists among the study variables. The findings of this paper showed that agricultural economic growth is positively affected by gas consumption and electricity consumption both in the long-run and short run. The long-run and short-run coefficients of gas consumption and electricity consumption were estimated to be 0.906, 0.421, 0.595 and 0.276, respectively. The estimated equation remains stable during the period from 1984 to 2016 as analyzed by the stability tests.

Originality/value

This study considers the relationship between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Pakistan by using an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration. The study has three contributions to economic literature:this study used different unit root tests to test stationarity of the variables such as ADF unit root test by Dicky and Fuller and P-P unit root test by Philip and Perron; the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to test the existence of long-run analysis between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth; and to check the robustness, the authors used the Johansen cointegration test to examine the long-run relationship between dependent and independent variables.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 13 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 April 2017

Koon Nam Henry Lee

This study aims to investigate the cointegration and causality relationships between Hong Kong’s residential property price and stock price, using quarterly data, from the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the cointegration and causality relationships between Hong Kong’s residential property price and stock price, using quarterly data, from the 1st quarter of 1980 to the 3rd quarter of 2015.

Design/methodology/approach

In contrast to other studies, the cointegration test used is the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration (bounds testing) approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) that based on the estimation of an unrestricted error correction model and the causality test is based on non-causality test of Granger et al. (2000). Moreover, this research employs recursive least square procedures and Chow (1960) breakpoint test to detect unknown structural break and variation of relationships between residential property and stock price over the whole sample period.

Findings

The results of ARDL cointegration tests running from stock to residential property markets provide strong evidence to support the hypothesis that the stock and residential properties are cointegrated. The results of Granger et al. (2000) non-causality test support the view of wealth effect that stock price has an important causal effect on residential property price in Hong Kong but not vice versa. In addition, the results of recursive ordinary least squares coefficients estimates and Chow (1960) test (breakpoint test) for structural instability confirm the variation of the relationships between stock and residential property markets over the sample period.

Research limitations/implications

The empirical results from cointegration and causality tests suggest that the residential asset returns are better predicted by including the lagged difference values of stock price.

Originality/value

This is the pioneering study to examine the cointegration and causality study of stock and residential property price in Hong Kong by employing Pesaran ARDL cointegration approach and Granger non-causality approach. Investors are able to perform an effective evaluation to assist in allocating investment funds, and the government bodies can implement supplement housing policy in response to the public needs.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 10 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 June 2021

Thazhungal Govindan Saji

The Global recession of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in the postworld war economic history that brought in severe disruptions in global investments and capital…

Abstract

Purpose

The Global recession of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in the postworld war economic history that brought in severe disruptions in global investments and capital flows. Not surprisingly, research interest in the field of market integration has considerably increased over the last decade. This paper analyses the dynamics of price integration among Asian financial markets during the postfinancial crisis period.

Design/methodology/approach

We employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and a Granger Causality/Block Exogeniety test from a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on monthly stock index data of five leading Asian economies from April 2009 to March 2020.

Findings

The cointegration results could not produce any conclusive evidence of long-run relations between stock markets. There exists weak price convergence among markets, and financial integration is partial and in an imperfect form.

Research limitations/implications

Stock price performance in China is closely “coupled” with that in India, but both markets appear to be the short-run predictors of Asian stock returns. The research uses only the benchmark stock indices of the selected economies. Consideration of mid-cap and small-cap segments where foreign investments are significant today can validate the findings further.

Practical implications

The asymmetric pattern of price behavior of Asian markets has important implications for the pricing efficiency of national markets and offers arbitrage potentials for global investors to optimize returns through market diversifications on a long-term perspective. The finding definitely will be a great help to investors who are potentially interested in a trading strategy that offers greater returns with limited exposure to market risks.

Originality/value

Compared with previous studies, the research uses the most recent data of leading Asian markets and applies the robust method of ARDL Bounds testing approach that allows us to understand better if the economic recoveries and advancement have had an effect on market coupling and stock price transmissions.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 47 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 August 2018

Somesh K. Mathur and Abhishek Shekhawat

This paper aims to investigate the determinants of bilateral exports of India to the USA by taking the non-linearity issue in export demand equations which is neglected so…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the determinants of bilateral exports of India to the USA by taking the non-linearity issue in export demand equations which is neglected so far in the empirical work. The study tries to know the reaction of change in exports to exchange rate changes in a non-liner fashion. For this purpose, non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds testing approach of Shin et al. (2011) has been used. This approach allows testing for non-linearities both in the short and long run, which might give indications of strategic pricing and non-linearities in exchange rate. The empirical analysis is carried out for bilateral export demand relationships of India with the USA for the period from January 1993 until December 2013. The overall results show that exports are determined in the long run by foreign demand, exchange rates and relative prices. The assumed linearity in export demand functions might be too restrictive. Thereby, the one threshold model that distinguishes exchange rate effects between appreciations and depreciations delivers plausible results. If exchange rate non-linearities are detected, it would seem that exports respond stronger to appreciations than to depreciations. A reason for this might be that firms perform strategic pricing in international trade to gain or maintain market shares.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses the newly developed non-linear ARDL framework of Shin et al. (2011) to investigate whether there are non-linearities with respect to the exchange rate for India’s exports to the USA. One of the important features of this framework is that it is free from unit root pre-testing and can be applied regardless of whether variables are I(0) or I(1). In addition, ARDL and NARDL technique efficiently determines the cointegrating relation in small sample. The short-run and long-run parameters with appropriate asymptotic inferences can be obtained by applying OLS to NARDL with an appropriate lag length. Following is the NARDL representation of equation 4(a) and 4(b). For brevity, this is illustrated for 4(a) only, where is the first difference operator, P is the drift component and it is the white noise residual, the coefficients ?_1 to ?_4 represent the long-run relationship, whereas remaining expressions with summation sign represent the short-term dynamics of the model. This equation nests the linear ARDL model presented in Pesarean et al. (2001) for the case of d_k^+=d_k^-and ?_2=?_3for all k. Thus, equation is less restrictive than a linear model. For this test, as its distribution is non-standard, Pesarean et al. (2001) tabulate the critical values. The bound test is used to examine the existence of the long-run relationship among the variables in the system. This test is based on Wald/F-statistic and follows a non-standard distribution. To check whether a cointegrating relationship exists, one has to test the null hypothesis ?_1=?_2=?_3=?_4 = 0 in the equation. Pesarean et al. (2001) provide two sets of critical values in which lower critical bound assumes that all the variables in the ARDL are I(0) and upper critical bound assumes I(1). The null hypothesis of cointegration is rejected if the calculated F-statistics is greater than the upper bound critical values. If the F-statistics is below than the lower critical bound, then null hypothesis cannot be rejected; this indicates no cointegration among the variables. If it lies within the lower and upper bounds, the result is inconclusive. After examining the cointegration, long-run coefficients are calculated by estimating the model with the appropriate lag orders based on the Schwarz Information Criteria (SIC). Further, the short-run dynamics of the model is also analyzed by using unrestricted error correction model based on the assumption made by Pesarean et al. (2001). Thus, the error correction version of the NARDL model pertaining to the central export equation can be expressed as: 10; 10, where ? is the speed of adjustment parameter, and EC is the residuals that are obtained from the estimated cointegration model of equation 4(a). The EC term is expressed as 10; 10, where are the OLS estimators obtained from the equation (5a). The coefficients of the lagged variables provide the short-run dynamics of the model covering the equilibrium path. The error correction coefficient ( ) is expected to be less than zero, and its significant value implies the cointegration relation among the variables. Finally, various tests such as serial correlation, functional form, normality and heteroskedasticity have been conducted to check the performance of the model.

Findings

Many empirical studies have estimated the elasticities of different final export demand components with respect to the exports because of their importance in trade policy formulation. But all the work has accounted only linearity in the exchange rate in export demand equation. Hence, in this paper, we tried to estimate non-linearities in export demand equation. The study fills the gap in the literature by improving on existing literature with the incorporation of the newly developed NARDL approach of Shin et al. (2011). This approach allows testing for non-linearities both in the short- and in the long run which might give indications of strategic pricing and non-linearities in exchange rate. The empirical analysis is carried out for bilateral export demand relationships of India with the USA for the period from January 1993 until December 2013. The bound test shows that there exists cointegration among the variables. Results show that exports are determined in the long run by foreign demand, exchange rates and relative prices. The long-run coefficients have got the expected sign and are of reasonable magnitude and statistically significant. Regarding non-linearities, the results show that assuming linearity in export demand functions might be too restrictive. Thereby, the one threshold model that distinguishes exchange rate effects between appreciations and depreciations deliver plausible results. If exchange rate non-linearities are detected, it seems that exports respond stronger to appreciations than to depreciations. A reason for this might be that firms perform strategic pricing in international trade to gain or maintain market shares.

Originality/value

The originality of this paper lies in the fact that it applies NARDL approach to Indian trade data (export demand) and analyzes the asymmetrical and non-linear impact of exchange rate changes on Indian exports.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 38 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 January 2021

Biju Mathew and Sunitha Sivaraman

This paper analyses the relationship between financial sector development (FSD) and life insurance inclusion in India during the period from 1971–1972 to 2016–2017. The…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper analyses the relationship between financial sector development (FSD) and life insurance inclusion in India during the period from 1971–1972 to 2016–2017. The study analyses the effect of financial deepening on life insurance inclusion in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit roots test to check the stationarity properties of the time series data. It estimates a life insurance inclusion model using the auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration.

Findings

The study finds evidence of a cointegrating relationship between financial deepening and life insurance inclusion in India. A significant error correction coefficient indicates automatic adjustments to short-run disequilibrium, reinforcing the cointegrating relationship between financial sector and life insurance inclusion.

Research limitations/implications

A major limitation of the study is that it excludes the first-time sum assured (FSA) contributed by the private sector life insurance companies due to lack of data availability.

Practical implications

The results of the study call for faster expansion of the financial sector and provision of a low interest rate regime in the Indian economy. The study invokes the need for sufficient training to the personnel in the banking and non-banking institutions to cater to the complex needs of life insurance buyers.

Originality/value

The paper estimates the link between FSD and life insurance inclusion and introduces a new measure of life insurance demand, the life insurance inclusion, measured using the FSA.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 48 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 February 2019

Arfaoui Mongi

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the global influence of crude and refined oil futures prices on Dow Jones Islamic equity indices (DJIMI) during the recent…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the global influence of crude and refined oil futures prices on Dow Jones Islamic equity indices (DJIMI) during the recent global financial crisis under structural breaks in the conditional volatility of oil futures prices.

Design/methodology/approach

It aims at exploring the long-run and the short-run elasticity and causal relationships using an ARDL bound testing approach and a vector error correction model.

Findings

The main findings confirm the presence of long-run relationship for DJIM emerging markets index compared to other global and sub-regional developed indexes. Speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium is moderate and the effect of structural breaks, produced from nonlinear volatility model with long memory (LM), is overall not pronounced for that relationship. Short-run causality is bi-directional but long-run Granger causality does not run from refined oil to the DJIMI and crude oil.

Research limitations/implications

The paper demonstrates the implicit extent of international financial integration of Islamic stock markets in light of the global influence of oil prices.

Practical implications

The findings offer some highlights to researchers, portfolio managers and policymakers.

Originality/value

The paper gives an answer to an identified need to test the position of Islamic equity markets as booming Islamic investment and socially responsible investment areas to the global influence of the new soaring path of oil markets. It uses as well bounds testing approach and tests weak and strong causalities under structural breaks. It considers as well LM behavior in oil prices along with the asymmetry property in oil prices.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 July 2018

Bukar Zanna Waziri, Aminu Hassan and Reza Kouhy

Net energy importing countries (NEICs) pursue strategic policies to reduce the consumption of energy from conventional sources and increase that of renewable energy to…

Abstract

Purpose

Net energy importing countries (NEICs) pursue strategic policies to reduce the consumption of energy from conventional sources and increase that of renewable energy to attain energy security and sustainable development. However, net energy exporting countries (NEECs) rely substantially on the proceeds realised from oil and gas exports to mainly NEICs to finance government activities. This paper aims to investigate the effect of increased consumption of renewable energy in developed NEICs on the Nigeria’s oil and gas exports.

Design/methodology/approach

The study was undertaken by analysing macro-economic annual time-series data set (1980-2014) using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach.

Findings

Both the short-run and the long-run results of the ARDL modelling reveal that renewable energy consumption in developed NEICs is affecting Nigeria’s oil and gas exports negatively, thereby causing significant decrease in the amounts of revenue being generated therefrom.

Research limitations/implications

Like most empirical studies, the conduct of this research has encountered some challenges. Thus, the use of rather small sample in terms of period covered (1980-2014), annual frequency of data and focus on one NEEC (Nigeria) are the key limitations of this paper. While the first two challenges were dealt with by using ARDL, future research can focus on other NEECs to extend the study.

Practical implications

The findings have several policy implications, including the need for Nigeria to focus on developing internal market trajectories to increase domestic utilisation of its conventional energy rather than depending on external markets. The results also suggest the need for public policymakers to develop a strategic plan that will effectively address the external economic threat arising from the influence of global energy transition.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper represents the first effort to empirically examine the effect of renewable energy consumption by developed NEICs on the Nigeria’s oil and gas exports. The paper contributes to the literature by providing insight into and documenting evidence that the world is taking transitioning to cleaner energy sources very seriously.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 December 2019

Abdul Rehman, Muhammad Irfan, Sehresh Hena and Abbas Ali Chandio

The purpose of this paper is to explore and investigate the electricity consumption and production and its linkage to economic growth in Pakistan.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore and investigate the electricity consumption and production and its linkage to economic growth in Pakistan.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used an augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test to check the stationarity of the variables, while an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and causality test were applied to investigate the variables long-term association with the economic growth.

Findings

The study results show that electricity consumption in the agriculture, commercial and industrial sector has significant association with economic growth, while electricity consumption in the household and street lights demonstrate a non-significant association with the economic growth. Furthermore, results also exposed that electricity production from coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, nuclear and oil sources have significant association with the economic growth of Pakistan.

Originality/value

This study made a contribution to the literature regarding electricity consumption and production with economic growth in Pakistan by using an ARDL bounds testing approach and causality test. This study provides a guideline to the government of Pakistan that possible steps are needed to improve the electricity production and supply to fulfill the country demand.

Details

World Journal of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development, vol. 17 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-5945

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 January 2016

Vedat Yorucu

The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for Turkey by utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag approach

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for Turkey by utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag approach to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationships of CO2 emissions between foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) and electricity consumption (ELC). The results reveal that foreign tourists and ELC are significant determinants of a long-run equilibrium relationship with CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production and CO2 emissions from transport for Turkey, respectively. The results of the conditional error correction models (CECM) confirm that there are long-run causal relationships from the growing number of foreign tourist arrivals and the increase of ELC toward the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. The results of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) error correction models for CO2 emissions also validate significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in the short run.

Design/methodology/approach

ARDL modeling and Bounds test approach were used in this study.

Findings

Rapid tourism development in Turkey has triggered CO2 emissions. The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey threatens sustainability. The hypothesis of “The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey” is validated. Tourist arrivals, ELC and CO2 emissions are co-integrated. CECMs confirm the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. ARDL modeling shows significant relationships between CO2 emissions and other variables.

Originality/value

Results of ARDL error correction models for CO2 emissions validate the hypothesis that there are significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in Turkey for the short run.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

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