Search results

This study examines the roles of cross-sectional dependence, asymmetric structure and country-to-country policy variations in the inflation-poverty reduction causal nexus in selected sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1981 to 2019.

To account for cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity and policy variations across countries in the inflation-poverty reduction causal nexus, this study uses robust Hatemi-J data decomposition procedures and a battery of second-generation techniques. These techniques include cross-sectional dependency tests, panel unit root tests, slope homogeneity tests and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger non-causality approach.

Unlike existing studies, the panel and country-specific findings exhibit several dimensions of asymmetric causality in the inflation-poverty nexus. Positive inflationary shocks Granger-causes poverty reduction through investment and employment opportunities that benefit the impoverished in SSA. These findings align with country-specific analyses of Botswana, Cameroon, Gabon, Mauritania, South Africa and Togo. Also, a decline in poverty causes inflation to increase in the Congo Republic, Madagascar, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo. All panel and country-specific analyses reveal at least one dimension of asymmetric causality or another.

All stakeholders and policymakers must pay adequate attention to issues of asymmetric structures, nonlinearities and country-to-country policy variations to address country-specific issues and the socioeconomic problems in the probable causal nexus between the high incidence of extreme poverty and double-digit inflation rates in most SSA countries.

Studies on the inflation-poverty nexus are not uncommon in economic literature. Most existing studies focus on inflation’s effect on poverty. Existing studies that examine the inflation-poverty causal relationship covertly assume no asymmetric structure and nonlinearity. Also, the issues of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity are unexplored in the causal link in existing studies. All panel studies covertly impose homogeneous policies on countries in the causality. This study relaxes this supposition by allowing policies to vary across countries in the panel framework. Thus, this study makes three-dimensional contributions to increasing understanding of the inflation-poverty nexus.

Purpose: Through globalization, financial markets have become more integrated and their tendency to act together has increased. The majority of the literature states that there is a cointegration between developed and emerging markets. How do positive or negative shocks in developed markets affect emerging markets? And how do positive or negative shocks in emerging markets affect developed markets? For this reason, the aim of the study is to investigate the asymmetric causality relationship between developed and emerging markets with Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test.

Design/methodology/approach: In this study, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index was used to represent developed markets and the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Index was used to represent emerging markets. The asymmetric causality relationship between the DJIA Index and the MSCI Emerging Market Index was investigated using monthly data between January 2009 and April 2019. In the first step of the study, the Johansen Cointegration Test was used to determine whether there is a cointegration between the markets. In the next step, the Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test was applied to see the asymmetric causality relationship between the markets.

Findings: There is a weak correlation between developed and emerging markets. This result is important for international investors who want to diversify their portfolios. As a result of the Johansen Cointegration Test, it was found that there is a long-term relationship between the MSCI Emerging Market Index and the DJIA Index. Therefore, investors who make long-term investment plans should not forget that these markets act together and take into account the causal relationship between them. According to the asymmetric causality test results, a unidirectional causality relationship from the MSCI Emerging Market Index to the DJIA Index was determined. This causality shows that negative shocks in the MSCI Emerging Market Index have positive effects on the DJIA Index.

Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature as it is one of the first studies to examine the asymmetrical relationship between developed and emerging markets. This study is also useful in predicting the short- and long-term relationship between markets. In addition, this study helps investors, portfolio managers, company managers, policymakers, etc., to understand the integration of financial markets.

This study aims to reveal new information about the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for the time-varying causality.

Economic growth and renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption data of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the USA) for the 1980–2016 period were used in the study. The nonasymmetric causality test developed by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) and both traditional and time-varying forms of the asymmetric causality test by Hatemi-J (2012) were used as the study method.

While the study favors feedback hypothesis for renewable energy consumption in the nonasymmetric causality tests in the UK economy, it favors the same hypothesis for nonrenewable energy consumption in the US economy. However, according to the results reported by Hatemi-J (2012), the feedback hypothesis, which is supported for the UK, is supported only in positive shocks, yet not for each period of analysis. Similarly, feedback hypothesis, which is supported in the USA, is supported only in the negative shocks, yet not for each period of analysis.

This study examined that the asymmetric causality relationship between variables can be analyzed in time-varying form. Therefore, whether positive and negative shocks in renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption always provide useful information in estimations about economic growth is analyzed.

This study investigates if the causal relationships between the exchange rates and selected inbound markets’ tourism demand are temporary or permanent, and compares market reactions in Türkiye.

Tourism demand is examined with a regional approach, focusing on the geographical markets, namely Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members and Asian countries, as the top inbound tourism markets, in addition to the total number of inbound tourists to Türkiye. Granger, frequency-domain causality, asymmetric Toda–Yamamoto, and asymmetric frequency-domain causality tests were employed to investigate and compare markets on exchange rate–tourism demand relationship for 2008M01-2020M02.

The results indicate that exchange rates affect European tourism demand both in the short and long run. The meaning of this Frequency Domain Causality (FDC) analysis finding shows that the exchange rate has both permanent and temporary effects on European tourists. The relationships are statistically insignificant for CIS members and Asian countries. The exchange rates also permanently affect total inbound tourism demand, but the independent variable has no short-run (temporary) effects on total demand. Asymmetric causality tests confirmed a permanent causality relationship from the positive and negative components of exchange rates to the positive and negative components of European and total tourism demand.

The Granger causality test provides information on the presence of a causal relation, while the FDC test, an extended version of Granger causality, enlightens the short- (temporary) and long-run (permanent) relationships and allows for analyzing the duration of the impact. In addition, asymmetric causality relationships are also investigated in the study. Besides, this study is the first in the literature to examine the relationship between tourism demand and the exchange rate regionally (continentally) for Türkiye.

The direction of the causality relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth is a highly controversial issue in the literature. There are two basic approaches advocating different causal directions between FDI and growth, which are called hypotheses of FDI-led Growth and Growth-led FDI. The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship between FDI and economic growth in RCEP countries and thus make a new contribution to the discussions in the relevant literature. In addition, the results of the study are expected to provide important implications for the policies to be designed for economic growth based on FDI flows to RCEP countries. Thus, by examining the direction of causality between FDI and economic growth in RCEP countries, we aim to provide a new contribution to related literature and make some implications for the policy design process of economic growth in the RCEP area.

We empirically examined the direction of a causal link between FDI and economic growth in the context of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RPEC) countries in order to test the hypothesis of FDI-led growth and Growth-led FDI. Accordingly, as our main variables of interest, we incorporated the inward foreign direct investment stock to gross domestic product ratio (FDI) and gross domestic product per capita (GDP). Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test has been employed in the investigation of the direction of causality between FDI and GDP over the period of 1980–2020. Thus, unlike most of the studies investigating the direction of causality between FDI and growth using the linear causality analysis method, our study performed a nonlinear causality analysis.

Empirical results reveal that the causal relationship between FDI and national income in RPEC countries is non-linear or asymmetric . The results of the symmetric causality test for both from FDI to national income and from national income to FDI are statistically insignificant for all countries. Therefore, this finding obtained from the study provided an important guide to the econometric methods to be used in other studies to be conducted in the same region in the future. Concerning the asymmetric causality relationship from FDI to growth, positive FDI shocks are an important cause of national income in most RCEP countries. However, the effect of negative FDI shocks on national income is quite weak compared to positive shocks. Regarding the asymmetric causality relationship from growth to FDI, positive national income shocks do not create a significant causal relationship with FDI. Similarly, the effects of negative national income shocks on FDI are statistically insignificant. Overall, asymmetric causality test results reveal that positive FDI shocks have an important causal impact on economic growth in most RCEP countries. Thus, the results of econometric analysis mostly support the argument that the FDI-led growth hypothesis rather than the Growth-led FDI hypothesis in RCEP countries. Accordingly, policy-makers in most of the RCEP countries should continue to provide more incentives and facilities to multinational companies in order to ensure constant economic growth.

Our study brings a significant difference in the econometric method used compared to most of the other studies in the literature. Existing empirical studies on the direction of causality between FDI and growth mostly use standard Granger-linear causality-type tests to detect the direction of causality among FDI and growth. Unlike most of the studies in the literature, our study adopted a different methodological approach, namely the Hatemi J test to detect the non-linear causality between FDI and economic growth in RCEP countries. Therefore, this paper made a new methodological contribution significantly to the literature focusing on the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth by using a non-linear causality method rather than a linear causality one.

The primary objective of the paper is to examine the asymmetric Cointegration and asymmetric causality between financial development and poverty alleviation on annual data in Indian context over the period from 1980 to 2019.

First nonlinearity test by Brooks et al. (1999) is applied to ascertain the nonlinear behavior of the variables used. Once the nonlinear behavior of variables is confirmed, asymmetric and nonlinear unit root tests by Kapetanios and Shin (2008) are applied to check for the order of integration of selected variables. Next, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is employed to analyze the asymmetric Cointegration. Finally, Hatemi-j- asymmetric causality tests is applied to work out the direction of asymmetric causality.

The empirical findings document the existence of asymmetries in the short-run as well as long-run between poverty and financial development. The asymmetry reveals that negative financial development shocks leave a more profound impact on poverty alleviation than their positive equivalents. The findings of Wald's test also confirm the presence of asymmetric Cointegration. The asymmetric cumulative dynamic multipliers used to examine the behavior of asymmetries and adjustments with respect to time lend credence to the results calculated using NARDL estimator. This result exhibits the robustness of the model. Furthermore, the result emanating from recently introduced asymmetric causality test reveals a unidirectional asymmetric causality between negative shocks in financial development and poverty. The findings of the present study necessitate the need for investigating asymmetric and nonlinear effects in finance–poverty nexus, which existent literature has completely neglected, in order to have relevant policy conclusions.

The study used “Per capita consumption expenditure” as a measure for poverty due to lack of continuous time series data on headcount ratio. In future, researchers can extend this study by incorporating headcount ratio as a measure of poverty in their respective works. There is further scope of research on this issue by finding out the impact of formal and informal sources of credit on poverty separately. A panel data study for developing countries over a period of time could further confirm/negate the findings of the present study.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge none of the studies in Indian context has scrutinized asymmetric and nonlinear impact of financial development on poverty. To dredge up asymmetric structures at work, the authors have used the highly celebrated NARDL estimator. To enrich the existent body of knowledge along the lines of asymmetric (nonlinear) linkages, the authors have also used recently introduced asymmetric causality test by Hatemi-j-(2012) to find out the direction asymmetric causality.

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock prices during the period from March 2003 to March 2021.

The study uses asymmetric and symmetric frequency domain causality tests and focuses on BRIC countries, namely, Brazil, Russia, India and China.

The findings of the symmetric causality test confirm unidirectional permanent causality from EPU to stock prices for Brazil and India and bidirectional causality for China. However, according to the asymmetric causality test, the findings for China show that there is no causality between the variables. The results for Brazil and India indicate that there is unidirectional permanent causality from positive components of EPU to positive components of stock prices. Moreover, for Brazil, there is unidirectional temporary causality from the negative components of EPU to the negative components of stock prices. For India, there is temporary causality in the opposite direction.

The reactions of financial markets to positive and negative shocks differ. In this context, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first attempt to examine the causal relationships between stock prices and uncertainty using an asymmetric frequency domain approach. Thus, the study enables the analysis of the effects of positive and negative shocks in the stock market separately.

The main purpose of the present research is to analyze the relationship between technological development, financial development and economic growth in India in a non-linear and asymmetric framework.

The study employs the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model (NARDL) and Hetemi J asymmetric causality tests to explore nonlinearities in the dynamic interaction among the variables. The stationarity properties of data are checked by using Ng–Perron and ADF structural break unit root tests. The unit root test confirms that the variables are non-stationarity in level and are differenced stationary.

The study finds that there is a cointegrating relationship between technological development, financial development and economic growth in the long run. The findings suggest that a positive shock in technological development increases economic growth (coefficient value 1.497 at 1% significance level) and a negative shock will harm economic performance (coefficient value −0.519 at 1% significance level). A long-term positives shock in financial development boosts the economy (coefficient value 1.08 at 5% significance level) and negative shock hampers the economic performance (coefficient value −1.09 at 5% significance level). The asymmetric causality test result confirms bi-directional causality between technological development and economic growth and unidirectional causality from negative economic growth to negative technological development and bi-directional causality between economic growth and financial development, unidirectional negative financial development to economic growth.

The results of this research can significantly facilitate stakeholders and policymakers in devising short-term as well as long-term policies for financial development and technological innovation to achieve sustainable long-run economic growth in India.

This paper is the first of its kind to empirically examine the cointegrating and causal relationship between technology, financial development and economic growth in India using non-linear asymmetric cointegration and causality tests.

Bitcoin has recently become the focal point of investors as a digital currency and an alternative payment method. Despite Bitcoin being in the spotlight, a gap in the literature on its price-setting behaviors has been observed. This study aims to contribute to the literature by investigating the relationship between Bitcoin price and volume in the period between January 1, 2012 and April 7, 2018 through a symmetric and asymmetric causality test.

Daily price and volume data relevant to Bitcoin traded in the Bitstamp market were obtained from www.bitcoincharts.com. Within the framework of data applicable for analysis, the data set for this study includes a total of 2,286 observations for the period between January 1, 2012 and April 7, 2018.

Based on the results of the standard causality test, a causality relationship was determined from price to volume. Based on the results of the asymmetric causality test between positive and negative shocks of variables, a unilateral causality relationship was determined from negative shocks in Bitcoin prices to negative shocks in trading volume as well as from positive shocks in trading volume to positive shocks in prices. Furthermore, it was found that the relationship between Bitcoin price and volume is cointegrated.

The empirical results can be used by investors and portfolio managers to make trading decisions.

The contribution of this paper to the literature is that it is the first study on the symmetric and asymmetric causality relationship between Bitcoin price and volume. Moreover, this paper reveals short- and long-term behaviors of Bitcoin using the cointegration test used for determining the long-term relationship between Bitcoin price and volume.

The purpose of this paper is to examine asymmetric co-integration effects between nutrition and economic growth for annual South African data from the period 1961-2013.

The authors deviate from the conventional assumption of linear co-integration and pragmatically incorporate asymmetric effects in the framework through a fusion of the momentum threshold autoregressive and threshold error correction (MTAR-TEC) model approaches, which essentially combines the adjustment asymmetry model of Enders and Silkos (2001); with causality analysis as introduced by Granger (1969); all encompassed by/within the threshold autoregressive (TAR) framework, a la Hansen (2000).

The findings obtained from the study uncover a number of interesting phenomena for the South Africa economy. First, in coherence with previous studies conducted for developing economies, the authors establish a positive relationship between nutrition and economic growth with an estimated income elasticity of nutritional intake of 0.15. Second, the authors find bi-direction causality between nutrition and economic growth with a stronger causal effect running from nutrition to economic growth. Lastly, the authors find that in the face of equilibrium shocks to the variables, policymakers are slow to responding to deviations of the variables from their co-integrated long run steady state equilibrium.

In the study, the authors make a novel contribution to the literature by exploring asymmetric modelling in the correlation between nutrition intake and economic growth for the exclusive case of South Africa.