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Article
Publication date: 19 November 2021

Selman Bayrakcı and Ceyhun Can Ozcan

The study aims to determine the socio-cultural variables that affect Turkey's tourism demand. The study proposes how important socio-cultural determinants as well as…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to determine the socio-cultural variables that affect Turkey's tourism demand. The study proposes how important socio-cultural determinants as well as economic determinants affect tourism demand.

Design/methodology/approach

The study examined a sample of 19 countries sending the most visitors to Turkey between 1996 and 2017 by using panel unit root, panel cointegration tests and cointegration estimator methods. The data set consists of variables such as GDP per capita (lnGDPP), total population number (lnPOP), urbanization level, information and communication technology (lnICT), human development index (lnHDI), education level and death rates (lnDTH).

Findings

The findings from the analysis provide evidence that the variables in the models show the expected effects on tourism demand. The findings show that apart from economic variables, socio-cultural variables also have an important effect on tourism demand.

Research limitations/implications

The socio-cultural models used in the study were created using variables that can be quantified. The study results are valid for the countries included in the analysis.

Practical implications

The findings of this study will contribute to policymakers in determining the market for Turkish tourism. The results show that the policies to be prepared by considering the socio-cultural characteristics of countries can increase the tourism demand.

Originality/value

The study is significant in that it focuses on socio-cultural variables rather than economic variables commonly used in the literature. The study is original in terms of both the study sample and the model and considers cross-sectional dependency (CD) and homogeneity.

Details

Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Insights, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-9792

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Article
Publication date: 22 July 2021

Han Liu, Ying Liu, Gang Li and Long Wen

This study aims to examine whether and when real-time updated online search engine data such as the daily Baidu Index can be useful for improving the accuracy of tourism

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine whether and when real-time updated online search engine data such as the daily Baidu Index can be useful for improving the accuracy of tourism demand nowcasting once monthly official statistical data, including historical visitor arrival data and macroeconomic variables, become available.

Design/methodology/approach

This study is the first attempt to use the LASSO-MIDAS model proposed by Marsilli (2014) to field of the tourism demand forecasting to deal with the inconsistency in the frequency of data and the curse problem caused by the high dimensionality of search engine data.

Findings

The empirical results in the context of visitor arrivals in Hong Kong show that the application of a combination of daily Baidu Index data and monthly official statistical data produces more accurate nowcasting results when MIDAS-type models are used. The effectiveness of the LASSO-MIDAS model for tourism demand nowcasting indicates that such penalty-based MIDAS model is a useful option when using high-dimensional mixed-frequency data.

Originality/value

This study represents the first attempt to progressively compare whether there are any differences between using daily search engine data, monthly official statistical data and a combination of the aforementioned two types of data with different frequencies to nowcast tourism demand. This study also contributes to the tourism forecasting literature by presenting the first attempt to evaluate the applicability and effectiveness of the LASSO-MIDAS model in tourism demand nowcasting.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 33 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

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Article
Publication date: 9 October 2020

Reffat Mushtaq, Aijaz Abdullah Thoker and Aaqib Ahmad Bhat

The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the impact of institutional quality on the international tourism demand of India. To carry out the analysis, the study…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the impact of institutional quality on the international tourism demand of India. To carry out the analysis, the study first analyses the impact of composite institutional quality index and then proceeds to examine the impact of each of the individual components of institutional quality on the international tourism demand of India. The impact of income of the tourist originating countries, tourism price, trade openness and Human Development Index (HDI) on tourism demand has also been examined.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employed panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, with data from top 30 tourist originating countries for India for the period of 1995–2016.

Findings

The results indicated that an increase in the income of the tourist originating countries has spillover effects on the development of tourism sector of India. The impact of cost of travel proxied by relative prices between the destination and origin country is found to be negative, however, statistically insignificant. The impact of trade openness and development level of the host country (proxied by HDI) is found to have positive association with the tourism demand. Institutional quality is found to have positive association with international tourism demand of India. Among the individual components of institutional quality, rule of law, regulatory quality, control of corruption and voice and accountability are found to promote the tourism sector development in the economy. Contrarily, the impact of government effectiveness is found to be negative. In the short run, most of the variables were found to support their counterpart results in long run.

Practical implications

This study has practical implication not only in formulating tourism sector policies of the host countries but also for issuing tourist advisories in tourist originating countries. The study holds that policymakers should work for improving institutional environment of the country such as bureaucracy, legislature, regulatory quality, rule of law and for reducing corruption at all levels so as to ensure a sustained rise in tourist inflows to India.

Originality/value

This study validates the link between institutional quality of a country and international demand for its tourism. To the best of the authors' knowledge, the study is the first attempt that has comprehensively analysed the impact of institutional quality on tourism demand in Indian context which has been generally ignored in the tourism literature.

Details

Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Insights, vol. 4 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-9792

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Article
Publication date: 9 January 2017

Doris Chenguang Wu, Haiyan Song and Shujie Shen

The purpose of this paper is to review recent studies published from 2007 to 2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to review recent studies published from 2007 to 2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field.

Design/methodology/approach

Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published mostly in both science citation index and social sciences citation index journals were identified and analyzed.

Findings

This review finds that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, whereas disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area.

Research limitations/implications

The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting.

Practical implications

This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices.

Originality/value

The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 29 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

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Article
Publication date: 5 March 2018

Hadi Rafiei Darani and Hadi Asghari

The purpose of this paper is to study determining factors of international tourism demand in Middle Eastern countries.

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443

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study determining factors of international tourism demand in Middle Eastern countries.

Design/methodology/approach

Panel data pattern is used for data analysis of 1995 to 2013.

Findings

Results indicate variables like trade freedom index and gross domestic product (GDP) have positive and significant impact upon tourism demand of the countries of the region. Purchasing power parity (PPP) and GDP per capita are indicators which affect the tourism demand rate in Middle East negatively.

Originality/value

It is estimated that Middle East region will claim for the bulk of tourist arrivals in following years. Therefore, this study is vital for destination managers to plan for demand in future.

Details

International Journal of Culture, Tourism and Hospitality Research, vol. 12 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6182

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Article
Publication date: 13 March 2020

Laron Delano Alleyne, Onoh-Obasi Okey and Winston Moore

One of the main factors that can impact the cost of holidays to a particular destination is the exchange rate; exchange rate fluctuations impact the overall price of the…

Abstract

Purpose

One of the main factors that can impact the cost of holidays to a particular destination is the exchange rate; exchange rate fluctuations impact the overall price of the holiday and should be expected to effect tourism demand. This paper aims to scrutinize the volatility of the real effective exchange rate between the source market relative to the holiday destination and tourism demand volatility, where the influence of disaggregated data is noted.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses multivariate conditional volatility regressions to simulate the time-varying conditional variances of international visitor demand and exchange rates for the relatively mature Caribbean tourist destination of Barbados. Data on the country’s main source markets, the UK, the USA and Canada is used, where the decision to disaggregate the analysis by market allows the authors to contribute to policymaking, particularly the future of tourism marketing.

Findings

The volatility models used in the paper suggests that shocks to total arrivals, as well as the USA and UK markets tend to die out relatively quickly. Asymmetric effects were observed for total arrivals, mainly due to the combination of the different source markets and potential evidence of Butler’s (1980) concept of a tourist area’s cycle of growth. The results also highlight the significance of using disaggregated tourism demand models to simulate volatility, as aggregated models do not adequately capture source market specific shocks, due to the potential model misspecification. Exchange rate volatility is postulated to have resulted in the greater utilization of packaged tours in some markets, while the effects of the market’s online presence moderates the impact of exchange rate volatility on tourist arrivals. Markets should also explore the potential of attracting higher numbers of older tourist, as this group may have higher disposable incomes, thereby mitigating the influence of exchange rate volatility.

Research limitations/implications

Some of the explanatory variables were not available on a high enough frequency and proxies had to be used. However, the approach used was consistent with other papers in the literature.

Practical implications

The results from the paper suggest that the effects of exchange rate volatility in key source markets were offset by non-price factors in some markets and the existence of the exchange rate peg in others. In particular, the online presence of the destination was one of those non-price factors highlighted as being important.

Originality/value

In most theoretical models of tourism demand, disaggregation is not normally considered a significant aspect of the model. This paper contributes to the literature by investigating the impact real effective exchange rate volatility has on tourism demand at a disaggregated source country level. The approach highlights the importance of modeling tourism demand at a disaggregated level and provides important perspective from a mature small island destination.

摘要

设计/方法/方法

该研究采用多元条件波动回归来拟合相对成熟的加勒比海旅游目的地巴巴多斯的国际游客需求和汇率的时变条件方差。本研究逐一分析了该国主要客源市场(英国, 美国和加拿大)的数据, 从而为政策制定, 尤其是对今后的旅游营销做出贡献。

目的

汇率是影响到特定目的地度假成本的主要因素之一。汇率波动会影响整体的度假成本, 并会影响旅游需求。基于按客源地分类的数据, 本文详细研究了客源市场相对于度假目的地的实际有效汇率的波动性以及旅游需求的波动性。

发现

本文使用的波动模型表明, 汇率冲击对入境总人数以及美国和英国市场影响短暂。冲击对总入境人数产生的不对称效应, 主要是由于不同的客源市场加总和巴特勒(1980)关于旅游区增长周期概念所致。本文结论还凸显了使用基于客源地数据的旅游需求模型来模拟波动性的重要性, 因为加总数据不能充分捕获具体客源地市场的冲击从而产生模型设定作物。汇率波动会引起某些市场中团体游客的增加, 而目的地的线上热度影响会调节汇率波动对游客人数的影响。市场还应探索吸引更多老年游客的潜力, 因为该群体的可支配收入可能更高, 从而减轻了汇率波动的影响。

研究局限/意义

由于一些解释变量的数据频率不够高, 本文不得不使用一些替代指标。所使用的方法与文献中的其他论文一致。

实际影响

该论文的结果表明, 在某些客源地市场, 汇率波动的影响会被某非价格因素所抵消, 而在另一些主要客源地市场, 固定汇率的存在刚好规避了汇率波动产生的影响。目的地的线上热度是重要的非价格因素之一。

独创性

在大多数旅游需求理论模型中, 按客源地拆分的数据通常不被视为模型的重要方面。本文的理论贡献则是通过研究实际有效汇率波动对不同客源国的旅游需求的影响强调了旅游需求建模中使用基于客源地数据的重要性, 并以一个成熟的小岛目的地为角度进行了阐述。

Resumen

Propósito

Uno de los principales factores que pueden afectar al costo de las vacaciones a un destino en particular es el tipo de cambio; Las fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio afectan a el precio general de las vacaciones y es normal que afecten a la demanda turística. Este documento analiza la volatilidad del tipo de cambio efectivo real entre el mercado de origen en relación con el destino de vacaciones y la volatilidad de la demanda turística, donde se observa la influencia de los datos desagregados.

Diseño/metodología/enfoque

El estudio emplea regresiones de volatilidad condicional multivariadas para simular las variaciones condicionales variables en el tiempo de la demanda de visitantes internacionales y los tipos de cambio para el destino turístico caribeño relativamente maduro de Barbados. Se emplean datos sobre los principales mercados de origen del país, el Reino Unido, los Estados Unidos de América y Canadá, donde la decisión de desagrerar el análisis por mercado permite a los autores contribuir a la formulación de políticas, en particular al futuro del marketing turístico.

Resultados

Los modelos de volatilidad utilizados en el documento sugieren que los shocks en las llegadas totales, así como en los mercados de los Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido, tienden a desaparecer con relativa rapidez. Se observaron efectos asimétricos para las llegadas totales, principalmente debido a la combinación de los diferentes mercados de origen y la evidencia potencial del concepto de Butler (1980) del ciclo de crecimiento de un área turística. Los resultados también resaltan la importancia de utilizar modelos desagregados de demanda turística para simular la volatilidad, ya que los modelos agregados no capturan adecuadamente los shocks específicos del mercado de origen, debido a la posible especificación errónea del modelo. Se postula que la volatilidad del tipo de cambio influye en una mayor utilización de los paquetes turísticos en algunos mercados, mientras que los efectos de la presencia del mercado en linea (online) moderan el impacto de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio en las llegadas de turistas. Los mercados también deberían explorar el potencial de atraer un mayor número de turistas mayores, ya que este grupo puede tener mayores ingresos disponibles, mitigando así la influencia de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio.

Limitaciones / implicaciones de la investigación

Algunas de las variables explicativas no estaban disponibles en una frecuencia alta y se tuvieron que utilizar proxies. Sin embargo, el enfoque utilizado fue consistente con otros artículos en la literatura.

Implicaciones practices

Los resultados del documento sugieren que los efectos de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio en los mercados de origen clave fueron compensados por factores no relacionados con los precios en algunos mercados y la existencia de la vinculación del tipo de cambio en otros. En particular, la presencia en línea (online) del destino fue uno de esos factores no relacionados con el precio destacados como importantes.

Originalidad

En la mayoría de los modelos teóricos de la demanda turística, la desagregación normalmente no se considera un aspecto significativo del modelo. Este documento contribuye a la literatura al investigar el impacto que la volatilidad efectiva del tipo de cambio real tiene sobre la demanda turística a nivel de país de origen desagregado. El enfoque resalta la importancia de modelar la demanda turística a un nivel desagregado y proporciona una perspectiva importante desde un destino insular pequeño y maduro.

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Article
Publication date: 8 February 2016

Elizabeth Agyeiwaah and Raymond Adongo

– The purpose of this paper is to identify the core factors that determine tourism demand in four inbound markets of Hong Kong.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to identify the core factors that determine tourism demand in four inbound markets of Hong Kong.

Design/methodology/approach

The general-to-specific approach was adopted as a step-by-step approach to identify the major determinants of tourism demand in Hong Kong.

Findings

The study revealed word of mouth and income of source market are core determinants of tourism demand in all four inbound markets.

Originality/value

Knowledge of core determinants of tourism demand is useful to destination management organizations and tourism business owners for strategic planning and decision making to increase total revenues.

Details

International Journal of Tourism Cities, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2056-5607

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 April 2019

Iman Ghalehkhondabi, Ehsan Ardjmand, William A. Young and Gary R. Weckman

The purpose of this paper is to review the current literature in the field of tourism demand forecasting.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to review the current literature in the field of tourism demand forecasting.

Design/methodology/approach

Published papers in the high quality journals are studied and categorized based their used forecasting method.

Findings

There is no forecasting method which can develop the best forecasts for all of the problems. Combined forecasting methods are providing better forecasts in comparison to the traditional forecasting methods.

Originality/value

This paper reviews the available literature from 2007 to 2017. There is not such a review available in the literature.

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

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Article
Publication date: 1 January 1977

D. Bond, B. Cohen and G. Schachter

The purpose of this communication is to contribute to the understanding of the causes of the variation in the regional distribution of the demand for tourism in OECD…

Abstract

The purpose of this communication is to contribute to the understanding of the causes of the variation in the regional distribution of the demand for tourism in OECD countries. Our contention is that exchange rate fluctuations since 1970 have strongly influenced both cyclical and long‐term patterns of international tourism behaviour. Except for works by Gerakis and Artus the literature covers this aspect only marginally. However, their pioneering econometric analyses do not satisfy a number of fundamental objections to the measurement of tourism demand.

Details

The Tourist Review, vol. 32 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0251-3102

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Book part
Publication date: 14 December 2018

Tay T. R. Koo, David Tan and David Timothy Duval

The chapter aims to examine the interrelationships between aviation and Asian inbound tourism demand to Australia. First, the chapter introduces key factors in the…

Abstract

The chapter aims to examine the interrelationships between aviation and Asian inbound tourism demand to Australia. First, the chapter introduces key factors in the economics of tourism demand and the empirical work in assessing the aviation–tourism demand relations. Based on 2005–2016 annual time series data across 12 of Australia’s main Asian markets, a dynamic panel regression model is applied to empirically examine the factors influencing tourism demand including exchange rates and disposable income. Using a generalized method of moments approach, the study accounts for the endogenous relations between levels of international air services availability (proxied by seat capacity) and tourism demand. The results suggest, on average, the generative effect of aviation exists albeit with small magnitude (0.1–0.5% increase in tourism demand per 100,000 additional seat capacity). The chapter concludes with a discussion on the shifting inbound tourism balance toward Asia and the implications for aviation policy to meet the high Asian tourism growth targets.

Details

Airline Economics in Asia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78754-566-3

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