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New Directions in Macromodelling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-830-8

Book part
Publication date: 25 September 2020

Letife Özdemir

Purpose: Through globalization, financial markets have become more integrated and their tendency to act together has increased. The majority of the literature states that there is…

Abstract

Purpose: Through globalization, financial markets have become more integrated and their tendency to act together has increased. The majority of the literature states that there is a cointegration between developed and emerging markets. How do positive or negative shocks in developed markets affect emerging markets? And how do positive or negative shocks in emerging markets affect developed markets? For this reason, the aim of the study is to investigate the asymmetric causality relationship between developed and emerging markets with Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test.

Design/methodology/approach: In this study, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index was used to represent developed markets and the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Index was used to represent emerging markets. The asymmetric causality relationship between the DJIA Index and the MSCI Emerging Market Index was investigated using monthly data between January 2009 and April 2019. In the first step of the study, the Johansen Cointegration Test was used to determine whether there is a cointegration between the markets. In the next step, the Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test was applied to see the asymmetric causality relationship between the markets.

Findings: There is a weak correlation between developed and emerging markets. This result is important for international investors who want to diversify their portfolios. As a result of the Johansen Cointegration Test, it was found that there is a long-term relationship between the MSCI Emerging Market Index and the DJIA Index. Therefore, investors who make long-term investment plans should not forget that these markets act together and take into account the causal relationship between them. According to the asymmetric causality test results, a unidirectional causality relationship from the MSCI Emerging Market Index to the DJIA Index was determined. This causality shows that negative shocks in the MSCI Emerging Market Index have positive effects on the DJIA Index.

Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature as it is one of the first studies to examine the asymmetrical relationship between developed and emerging markets. This study is also useful in predicting the short- and long-term relationship between markets. In addition, this study helps investors, portfolio managers, company managers, policymakers, etc., to understand the integration of financial markets.

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Uncertainty and Challenges in Contemporary Economic Behaviour
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80043-095-2

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 January 2012

Murali Batareddy, Arun Kumar Gopalaswamy and Chia‐Hsing Huang

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the stability of the long‐run relationships between emerging (India, China, South Korea, and Taiwan) and developed stock markets (USA…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the stability of the long‐run relationships between emerging (India, China, South Korea, and Taiwan) and developed stock markets (USA and Japan). The study aims at adding to the literature on market integration by investigating the hypothesis that the Asian emerging stock markets are increasingly converging with the US stock market over time.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use time varying cointegration tests (rolling and recursive cointegration) which allow for time variation in the underlying data generating process (possible structural breaks in the long‐run relationships). Ten year index data from mid 1998 to 2008 of the respective stock markets have been used for this study.

Findings

Empirical findings support the presence of one long‐run relationship (cointegration vector) between emerging and developed stock markets. Both domestic and external forces affect stock market behavior, leading to long‐run equilibrium but the individual Asian emerging stock markets tend to display stronger linkages with the USA (developed counterpart) rather than with their neighbors. The degree of convergence among Asian emerging markets has increased over the last few years.

Originality/value

This is the first paper to study cointegration among Asian emerging stock markets namely India, China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as their cointegration with the developed stock markets of the USA and Japan.

Article
Publication date: 2 October 2007

Alfonso Ceccherini‐Nelli and Stefan Priebe

The purpose of this paper is to explore the association between economic factors (consumer price index, real gross domestic product per capita, base discount rate, and rate of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the association between economic factors (consumer price index, real gross domestic product per capita, base discount rate, and rate of unemployment) and numbers of hospital psychiatric beds.

Design/methodology/approach

Time series analytical techniques (unit root and cointegration tests) were applied to two regional data sets from the nineteenth century (North Carolina, USA; Berkshire, UK) and three national data sets in the twentieth century (US; UK; Italy) to test the hypothesis of a relationship.

Findings

All data sets suggest a long‐run relationship between economic factors and psychiatric bed numbers. Increase of consumer price predicted a decrease of hospital beds (and vice versa) in all data sets and was the strongest predictor of changes in psychiatric bed numbers. Hence, economic factors appear to be an important driver for the supply of hospital beds.

Research limitations/implications

Cointegration tests are not true causality tests as they only measure the ability to forecast the value of an X variable knowing the value of N other variables. Therefore, one cannot rule out that the relationship between economic factors and psychiatric hospital beds is an indirect one, caused by another unidentified factor. Also, this study alone does not provide evidence to decide whether economic factors mainly influence demand or supply, although various findings suggest the latter.

Practical implications

CPI is of particular significance for changes in psychiatric bed provision, and co‐integration tests are a useful method to explore such association.

Originality/value

This study is the first one to apply time series analytical techniques to explore the role of economic factors in the processes of psychiatric institutionalisation and deinstitutionalisation.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 34 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 29 May 2023

Miklesh Prasad Yadav, Atul Kumar and Vidhi Tyagi

Design/Methodology/Approach: This chapter applies tests associated with the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) and Johansen cointegration test. AMH acknowledges the views of the…

Abstract

Design/Methodology/Approach: This chapter applies tests associated with the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) and Johansen cointegration test. AMH acknowledges the views of the efficient market hypothesis and behavioural finance approach.

Purpose: Cryptocurrencies are considered a new asset class by multiasset portfolio managers. Hence, we examine the AMH and cointegration in the cryptocurrency market to know whether select cryptocurrencies can be diversified.

Findings: We find that cryptocurrencies are efficient and there is a long-run relationship among constituent series, and there is no short-run causality derived from bitcoin, Ethereum and litecoin to bitcoin, while stellar and Dogecoin have short-run causality to bitcoin.

Originality/Value: This chapter is different from the existing one as this is the first study in which the AMH and Johansen cointegration test are applied to check the efficiency and relationship of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero, Stellar, litecoin and Dogecoin.

Details

Smart Analytics, Artificial Intelligence and Sustainable Performance Management in a Global Digitalised Economy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-555-7

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2013

Nafeesa Yunus

The aim of the study is to utilize cointegration techniques and analyze the degree of linkages among four key property types (retail, office, industrial, and residential) of eight…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of the study is to utilize cointegration techniques and analyze the degree of linkages among four key property types (retail, office, industrial, and residential) of eight major countries throughout North America and Europe. Additionally, the study evaluates whether investors can attain greater diversification benefits by investing across specific property sectors within their own nations in the long‐run. Finally, the study examines whether certain property sectors can be considered the “leader” that drives the remaining sectors over time.

Design/methodology/approach

Multivariate cointegration tests developed by Johansen and Johansen and Juselius are utilized to evaluate whether long‐run equilibrium relationship(s) exist among the four property sectors. If evidence of cointegration is found, hypothesis tests are implemented to separate out the markets that can be excluded from the cointegrating relationships and to identify the markets that are the sources of the common trends (weakly exogenous), respectively.

Findings

Long‐run cointegration results indicate that the four property sectors of the USA, Canada, Netherlands, and the UK have fully converged implying limited diversification possibilities. The property sectors of Finland, France, Germany and Sweden, however, have only partially converged. Further analysis reveals that for these four countries, the industrial sectors provide the greatest long‐run diversification benefits. Finally, weak exogeneity tests indicate that for an overwhelming majority of the countries under consideration, the residential sectors are the sources of the common stochastic trends, that “lead” the remaining property types towards the long‐run equilibrium relationships.

Practical implications

The conclusions from this study should be beneficial to investors, portfolio managers, pension fund managers and other institutional investors in the USA and abroad who are contemplating to invest across property sectors within their own countries in making more informed portfolio allocation decisions. The findings also highlight the importance of implementing time‐series econometric techniques to accurately and appropriately model interactions among property sectors over time.

Originality/value

This is one of the few studies that utilize modern‐day timeseries techniques to analyze the dynamic interactions among the property sectors of eight major nations throughout North America and Europe. Prior studies, have been limited to modeling interrelationships between the property sectors of the USA and UK, with little attention given to other major real estate markets.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 31 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 January 1993

Julia Darby and Simon Wren‐Lewis

An understanding of the determination of real wages is crucial inanalysing the determination of the natural rate of unemployment orNAIRU. Uses cointegration techniques to examine…

Abstract

An understanding of the determination of real wages is crucial in analysing the determination of the natural rate of unemployment or NAIRU. Uses cointegration techniques to examine a core theoretical model of the long‐run determinants of real wages involving unit labour costs, unemployment, union power and the replacement ratio. Considers the different measures of union power and the duration of unemployment and alternative specifications involving the “wedge” but a robust cointegrating relationship is not found. These results can be interpreted in several ways: concepts such as union power or the “generosity” of benefits may be measured inadequately; the theoretical understanding of the long‐run determinants of real earnings may remain seriously incomplete; alternatively the short spans of data examined may be insufficient for the application of cointegration techniques, although the sample sizes examined here are fairly typical of most macroeconomic time series.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 20 no. 1/2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 April 2023

Reetika Verma

The study aims is to explore the cointegration level among major Asian stock indices from pre- COVID-19 to post COVID-19 times.

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims is to explore the cointegration level among major Asian stock indices from pre- COVID-19 to post COVID-19 times.

Design/methodology/approach

Johansen cointegration test is employed to know the long run relationship among the stock market indices of Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, India, Japan, China, Taiwan, Israel and South Korea. The empirical testing was done to analyze whether any significant change has been induced by the COVID-19 pandemic on the cointegrating relationship of the selected markets or not. Through statistics of trace test and maximum eigen value, total number of cointegrating equations present among all the indices during different study periods were analyzed.

Findings

The presence of cointegration was found during all the sample periods and the findings suggests that the selected stock markets are associated with each other in general. During COVID-19 crisis period the cointegration level was reduced and again it regained its original level in the next year and again reduced in the subsequent next year. So, the cointegrating relationship among selected stock market indices remains dynamic and no evidence of impact of COVID-19 on this dynamism was found.

Originality/value

The study has explored the level of cointegration among the major stock indices of Asian nations in the pre, during, post-crisis and the most recent periods. The interconnectedness of the stock markets during the COVID-19 times has been compared with similar periods in different years immediately preceding and succeeding the COVID-19 times which has not been done in any of the existing study.

Details

IIM Ranchi journal of management studies, vol. 3 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2754-0138

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 May 2015

Nuruzzaman Arsyad

This paper aims to seek to find answers to three questions. First, is there any possibility of long-term cointegration between East and Southeast Asian equity markets? If so, how…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to seek to find answers to three questions. First, is there any possibility of long-term cointegration between East and Southeast Asian equity markets? If so, how many cointegrating equations are there? Second, what are the short-term causal relationships between equity markets in East and Southeast Asia? Third, what is the East Asia’s most influential equity market toward their Southeast counterparts, and vice versa?

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses Johansen's (1988) cointegration method to test long-run relationships among East and Southeast Asian equity markets. With regards to short-run causal relationships, this study uses Granger-causality test as well as the forecast variance decomposition method.

Findings

Johansen test proves that there is cointegration between East and Southeast Asian equity markets, but the integration process is not complete. Cointegrating vector also provides evidence that member countries of ASEAN+3 respond differently to external shocks. With regards to short-run causal direction, this study finds that Japan Granger-causes all equity markets in Southeast Asia, while Singapore and Vietnam Granger-cause all equity markets in East Asia. These results imply that Japan is the market with most linkages in Southeast Asia, while Singapore and Vietnam are the markets with most linkages to East Asia. Furthermore, forecast variance decomposition reveals that Japan is the East Asia’s most influential equity markets, while Singapore is the most influential equity market in Southeast Asia. This study suggests that policymakers in East and Southeast Asian countries to synchronize the capital market standards and regulations as well as to reduce the barriers for capital mobility to spur the regional equity market integration.

Research limitations/implications

Increasing integration of East and Southeast Asian capital markets forces policymakers in ASEAN+3 countries to synchronize monetary policies, as it has been found that regionally integrated capital markets reduce the degree of independent monetary policy (Logue et al., 1976). It is therefore important for policymakers in East and Southeast Asian countries to assess the possibility of stock market integration within this region to anticipate the future risks associated with economic integration as well as to build collective regional institutions (Wang, 2004). Click and Plummer (2005) also argued that integrated stock markets is more efficient than nationally segmented equity markets, and the efficiency of Asian capital markets has been questioned in particular after the 1997 Asian financial crises. Yet, the empirical evidence on the extent of financial integration among ASEAN+3 member countries has been limited and inconclusive. This study is therefore an attempt to investigate the recent development of ASEAN+3 equity markets integration.

Practical implications

This study focuses its attention on the existence and the extent of financial integration in East and Southeast Asia region, and it provides evidence that equity market integration in ASEAN+3 is far from complete, and for that reason, there is a need for policymakers in ASEAN+3 member countries to synchronize their standards and regulations. Furthermore, the policymakers in East and Southeast Asia can gain benefit from this study, as it provides the evidence that ASEAN+3 member countries respond differently to policy shocks, which may hinder the development of regional financial integration as well as the policy effectiveness of region-wide authority in ASEAN+3.

Originality/value

This research is different from previous studies, as it puts the regional financial integration within the context of ASEAN+3 frameworks. Unlike previous research that considers East and Southeast Asian countries as an individual entity, this research considers East and Southeast Asia into two different blocks, following Tourk (2004) who documented that negotiation process for ASEAN+3 financial integration is conducted in sub-regional level (ASEAN vs East Asia), rather than national level (country per country basis). Second, this study covers the period after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. As suggested in Wang (2014), that the degree of stock market integration tends to change around the periods marked by financial crises, the updated study on Asian financial integration in the aftermath of 1997 financial crises is important to document the development of regional financial integration.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 2003

Leonard Chong, Michael Drew and Madhu Veeraraghavan

This study examines the relationship between Australia's stock market and the five largest international markets for the period 1991 through 2001. Preliminary findings, using…

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Abstract

This study examines the relationship between Australia's stock market and the five largest international markets for the period 1991 through 2001. Preliminary findings, using correlation statistics, indicated potential benefits to international diversification for the Australian investor. Further analysis, conducted in the VAR framework using the Johansen cointegration method, found that the Australian market has short and long run linkages with the United States, while tests with other markets found little evidence of interdependence. Moreover, only the US market was found to Granger‐cause the Australian market.

Details

Pacific Accounting Review, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0114-0582

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