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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 March 2024

Anis Jarboui, Emna Mnif, Nahed Zghidi and Zied Akrout

In an era marked by heightened geopolitical uncertainties, such as international conflicts and economic instability, the dynamics of energy markets assume paramount importance…

Abstract

Purpose

In an era marked by heightened geopolitical uncertainties, such as international conflicts and economic instability, the dynamics of energy markets assume paramount importance. Our study delves into this complex backdrop, focusing on the intricate interplay the between traditional and emerging energy sectors.

Design/methodology/approach

This study analyzes the interconnections among green financial assets, renewable energy markets, the geopolitical risk index and cryptocurrency carbon emissions from December 19, 2017 to February 15, 2023. We investigate these relationships using a novel time-frequency connectedness approach and machine learning methodology.

Findings

Our findings reveal that green energy stocks, except the PBW, exhibit the highest net transmission of volatility, followed by COAL. In contrast, CARBON emerges as the primary net recipient of volatility, followed by fuel energy assets. The frequency decomposition results also indicate that the long-term components serve as the primary source of directional volatility spillover, suggesting that volatility transmission among green stocks and energy assets tends to occur over a more extended period. The SHapley additive exPlanations (SHAP) results show that the green and fuel energy markets are negatively connected with geopolitical risks (GPRs). The results obtained through the SHAP analysis confirm the novel time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) frequency connectedness findings. The CARBON and PBW markets consistently experience spillover shocks from other markets in short and long-term horizons. The role of crude oil as a receiver or transmitter of shocks varies over time.

Originality/value

Green financial assets and clean energy play significant roles in the financial markets and reduce geopolitical risk. Our study employs a time-frequency connectedness approach to assess the interconnections among four markets' families: fuel, renewable energy, green stocks and carbon markets. We utilize the novel TVP-VAR approach, which allows for flexibility and enables us to measure net pairwise connectedness in both short and long-term horizons.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 January 2023

Moncef Guizani, Dorra Talbi and Gaafar Abdalkrim

This study aims to investigate the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) on corporate cash holding level and speed of adjustment (SOA) in one…

1406

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) on corporate cash holding level and speed of adjustment (SOA) in one of the most important emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa, Saudi Arabia. It also investigates whether Shariah-compliance as well as financial constraints affect the relationship between both EPU and GPR and corporate cash holdings.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs GMM regression considering a sample of 140 nonfinancial firms drawn from the Saudi stock market over the period 2002 to 2019.

Findings

The authors find evidence in support of the precautionary motive hypothesis. Facing costly external financing induced by economic policy-related uncertainty and geopolitical tension, Saudi firms tend to accumulate cash as a buffer against negative shocks to their cash flows. The results also show that the positive impact of EPU and GPR on the level of cash holding is less pronounced in Shariah-compliant firms, whereas it is more pronounced in more financially constrained firms. Evidence also reveals that the estimated adjustment coefficients show that Saudi firms adjust more quickly toward their target cash ratio in periods of high economic instability and geopolitical risks.

Practical implications

This study has important implications for managers, policymakers and regulators. For managers, the study is an important reference to understand and design cash management policies by considering factors measured at the country level. More specifically, managers should pay more attention to periods of heightened uncertainties and geopolitical tensions in which the availability of funds is reduced. For policymakers and regulators, this study may be useful in assessing the effect of economic instability on firm’s cash holding decision. Therefore, in an effort to increase the supply of external financing available to firms, policymakers may devise investment friendly environment by controlling country-specific factors.

Originality/value

This paper shows how EPU and GPR as institutional environment factors affect cash holding decision in an oil-rich country.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. 41 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 April 2024

David Korsah, Godfred Amewu and Kofi Osei Achampong

This study seeks to examine the relationship between macroeconomic shock indicators, namely geopolitical risk (GPR), global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and financial stress…

Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to examine the relationship between macroeconomic shock indicators, namely geopolitical risk (GPR), global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and financial stress (FS), and returns as well as volatilities on seven carefully selected stock markets in Africa. Specifically, the study intends to unravel the co-movement and interdependence between the respective macroeconomic shock indicators and each of the stock markets under consideration across time and frequency.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employed wavelet coherence approach to examine the strength and stability of the relationships across different time scales and frequency components, thereby providing valuable insights into specific periods and frequency ranges where the relationships are particularly pronounced.

Findings

The study found that GEPU, Financial Stress (FS) and GPR failed to induce significant influence on African stock market returns in the short term (0–4 months band), but tend to intensify in the long-term band (after 6th month). On the contrary, stock market volatilities exhibited strong coherence and interdependence with GEPU, FSI and GPR in the short-term band.

Originality/value

This study happens to be the first of its kind to comprehensively consider how the aforementioned macro-economic shock indicators impact stock markets returns and volatilities over time and frequency. Further, none of the earlier studies has attempted to examine the relationship between macro-economic shocks, stock returns and volatilities in different crisis periods. This study is the first of its kind in to employ data spanning from May 2007 to April 2023, thereby covering notable crisis periods such as global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic episodes.

Details

Journal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2632-279X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 November 2023

David Korsah and Lord Mensah

Despite the growing recognition of the complex interplay between macroeconomic shock indexes and stock market dynamics, there is a significant research gap concerning their…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite the growing recognition of the complex interplay between macroeconomic shock indexes and stock market dynamics, there is a significant research gap concerning their interconnectedness and return spillovers in the context of the African stock market. This leaves much to be desired, given that the financial market in Africa is arguably one of the most preferred destinations for hedge and portfolio diversification (Alagidede, 2008; Anyikwa and Le Roux, 2020). Further, like other financial markets across the globe, the increased capital flow, coupled with declining information asymmetry in Africa, has deepened intra and inter-sectoral integration within and across national borders. This has, thus, increased the susceptibility of financial markets in Africa to spillover of shocks from other sectors and jurisdictions. Additionally, while previous studies have investigated these factors individually (Asafo-Adjei et al., 2020), with much emphasis on developed markets, an all-encompassing examination of spillovers and the connectedness between the aforementioned macroeconomic shock indexes and stock market returns remains largely unexplored. This study happens to be the first to consider the impact of each of the indexes on stock returns in Africa, with evidence spanning from May 2007 to April 2023, covering notable global crisis episodes such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs the novel quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) model, making it the first of its kind in literature. By applying the QVAR, the study captures the potential nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between stock returns and the factors of interest across different quantiles, i.e. bearish, normal and bullish market conditions. Thus, the approach allows for a more accurate and nuanced examination of the tail dependence and extreme events, providing insights into the behaviour of the variables under extreme events.

Findings

The study revealed that connectedness and spillovers intensified under bearish and bullish market conditions. It was also observed that, among the macroeconomic shock indicators, FSI exerted the highest influence on stock returns in Africa in both bullish and normal market conditions. Across the various market regimes, the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) and the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) were net receiver of shocks.

Originality/value

This study happens to be the first to consider the impact of each of the indexes on stock returns in Africa, with evidence spanning from May 2007 to April 2023, covering notable global crisis episodes such as the GFC, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. On the methodology front, this study employs the novel QVAR model, making it one of the few studies in recent literature to apply the said method.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 December 2023

Nora Maher

This research aims to examine the US–China policy shift from Obama to Biden emphasizing the centrality of Taiwan question in the geostrategic competition with Beijing and its…

1356

Abstract

Purpose

This research aims to examine the US–China policy shift from Obama to Biden emphasizing the centrality of Taiwan question in the geostrategic competition with Beijing and its prospect if the US strategy remains unchanged.

Design/methodology/approach

A conceptual framework is outlined, illustrating how the US grand strategy is driven by the ideological foundation of Exceptionalism. The paper highlights the associated US policy changes that evolved from Obama to Trump and then Biden to advance Washington's strategic interests in its rivalry with China over Taiwan.

Findings

Biden's policy led to an escalating geopolitical competition with Beijing over Taiwan to maintain US supremacy. The Biden administration is more stringent than the previous administrations on the Taiwan question and there is the conviction that the USA must not back down on Taiwan because the alternative will be a retraction of US world primacy to Beijing. With Washington's persistent hegemonic strategy, the US–China confrontation over Taiwan seems inevitable.

Originality/value

The research highlights how the Biden administration managed a perpetuated Ukraine crisis and forged unprecedented high-level ties with Taiwan, indicating the administration's determination to exacerbate contentions with Beijing over Taiwan rather than de-escalate.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 April 2024

Svetoslav Covachev and Gergely Fazakas

This study aims to examine the impact of the beginning of the Russia–Ukraine war and the Wagner Group’s attempted military coup against Putin’s regime on the European defense…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of the beginning of the Russia–Ukraine war and the Wagner Group’s attempted military coup against Putin’s regime on the European defense sector, consisting of weapons manufacturers.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the event study methodology to quantify the impact. That is, the authors assume that markets are efficient, and abnormal stock returns around the event dates capture the magnitudes of the impacts of the two events studied on European defense sector companies. The authors use the capital asset pricing model and two different multifactor models to estimate expected stock returns, which serve as the benchmark necessary to obtain abnormal returns.

Findings

The start of the war on February 24, 2022, when the Russian forces invaded Ukraine, was followed by high positive abnormal returns of up to 12% in the next few days. The results are particularly strong if multiple factors are used to control for the risk of the defense stocks. Conversely, the authors find a negative impact of the rebellion initiated by the mercenary Wagner Group’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on June 23, 2023, on the abnormal returns of defense industry stocks on the first trading day after the event.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study of the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the defense sector. Furthermore, this is the first study to measure the financial implications of the military coup initiated by the Wagner Group. The findings contribute to a rapidly growing literature on the financial implications of military conflicts around the world.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 September 2023

Mohamad Zreik

This paper aims to examine the USA's policy toward Myanmar or Burma, analyzing the bilateral relationship between the two countries from the pre-colonial period to the present…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the USA's policy toward Myanmar or Burma, analyzing the bilateral relationship between the two countries from the pre-colonial period to the present day. It highlights the implications of political shifts in the system of government in Myanmar for the bilateral relationship with the USA, particularly after the 1962 coup and the emergence of rising regional powers like China. The paper also shows how the economic role of Myanmar has increased, leading to more equal relations with the United States of America.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper employs a qualitative research design, analyzing data from both primary and secondary sources. The methodology includes a literature review and document analysis to gain a comprehensive understanding of the USA–Myanmar bilateral relationship. The research also analyzes political and economic developments in Myanmar and the region, placing the USA policy in a broader context.

Findings

The research finds that the USA has been an influential player in Myanmar's politics and economy. However, with Myanmar's integration into the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative and its accession to Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), its economic role has become more significant, leading to a more balanced relationship with the USA. The paper also shows that the USA's policy toward Myanmar has undergone significant changes, particularly after the 2011 easing of sanctions by former President Barack Obama.

Originality/value

Although many works have traced the history of USA–Myanmar ties, this study provides a fresh perspective by setting past events against the backdrop of contemporary geopolitical upheavals, therefore highlighting the complex evolution of their bilateral dynamics. The paper contributes to the literature on the USA–Myanmar bilateral relationship by providing a comprehensive analysis of the relationship from a historical perspective. The research also adds to the discussion of the implications of political and economic developments in Myanmar for the bilateral relationship with the USA. The findings of this study have important implications for policymakers and scholars interested in the USA's role in Southeast Asia and its relations with rising regional powers like China.

Details

Southeast Asia: A Multidisciplinary Journal, vol. 23 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1819-5091

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 February 2024

Gregor Pfajfar, Maciej Mitręga and Aviv Shoham

In this paper, the authors aim to introduce international dynamic marketing capabilities (IDMCs) theoretically derived from marketing capabilities (MCs), dynamic marketing…

1210

Abstract

Purpose

In this paper, the authors aim to introduce international dynamic marketing capabilities (IDMCs) theoretically derived from marketing capabilities (MCs), dynamic marketing capabilities (DMCs) and international marketing capabilities (IMCs) and provide a novel conceptualization of the concept by applying a holistic view of the international enterprise.

Design/methodology/approach

This is a literature review that maps the current research on MCs, DMCs and IMCs and serves as a basis for the theoretical conceptualization of a novel IDMCs concept as well as for the identification of research gaps and the development of future research directions on this phenomenon.

Findings

Existing typologies of MCs, DMCs and IMCs are classified into four categories: strategic, operational, analytical and value creation capabilities. A new typology of IDMCs is proposed, consisting of digital MC and dynamic internationalization capability as strategic capabilities, agile IMC, IM excellence and absorptive capability in IM as operational capabilities, IM resilience capability, IM knowledge management capability, AI-enabled IDMC and Industry 4.0-enabled IDMC as analytical capabilities, and ambidextrous IM innovation capability as value creation capability. Finally, the authors identify research gaps and develop research questions that open future research avenues for the coming years.

Originality/value

This paper offers a novel view of MCs, DMCs and IMCs and argues that, in contrast to the majority of previous research, a comprehensive understanding of these is only possible if all levels are considered simultaneously: the strategic, the operational, the analytical and the value creation level. A new conceptualization and typology of IDMCs follows this logic.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 August 2023

Veronika Torosyan

After the collapse of the USSR, Eurasian integration projects, proposed by Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey, began to develop in the post-Soviet space. Hence, there is growing…

Abstract

Purpose

After the collapse of the USSR, Eurasian integration projects, proposed by Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey, began to develop in the post-Soviet space. Hence, there is growing interest in Eurasianism as an ideology. In this context, the study of the use of the Eurasianism's ideas in practice becomes relevant. The argument of this article is that Russia, Turkey, and Kazakstan have their own interpretations of Eurasianism's ideas to develop the ideological basis of their own integration projects. The purpose of the article is to answer the question: How is the Eurasianism used in integration projects of Russia, Turkey and Kazakstan?

Design/methodology/approach

The concept of Eurasianism has been viewed in terms of constructivism. On the basis of the principles of social constructivism, and in particular the works of constructivist ideologue Alexander Wendt, a comparative analysis was made. The ideas of Eurasianism in the integration processes of Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey has been carried out based on the criteria such as the role of common ideas, identity, consciousness, memory and culture. The examples of mentioned countries were compared, to consider the development of the ideas of Eurasianism in practice.

Findings

The ideas of Eurasianism have a significant impact on the integration processes of the post-Soviet space. Eurasianism advocates for important factors such as respect for cultural and civilizational differences between different nations, their equality in the overall union and common development opportunities. Such factors are undoubtedly important for the success of integration projects. The reflection of many individual thoughts of classical Eurasians and Neo-Eurasians can be seen in the statements of various ministers and leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey. The initiatives of these countries in creating integration projects also show the influence of the Eurasian concept.

Originality/value

In the 1990s, the study of Eurasianism gained new significance in academic circles. Articles and periodicals devoted to this concept were published. However, all parallels between variations in concepts of Eurasianism have been conducted on a theoretical level. The importance of this article lies in the fact that conceptual differences are compared in practice. Researchers had not previously considered the study of the relevance and productivity of Eurasianism in practice by comparing examples and experiences from different countries. The novelty of this article lies in its attempt to solve this problem.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 8 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 March 2024

James Caporaso

Trade relations between China and the USA have been marked by conflict, especially since China’s membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). These conflicts have been…

Abstract

Purpose

Trade relations between China and the USA have been marked by conflict, especially since China’s membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). These conflicts have been analyzed from a variety of perspectives, including the loss of jobs in the USA due to Chinese imports, competition in high technology sectors and the balance of trade. Conceptual frameworks have employed models of domestic differences as well as models of international power distribution. Among domestic differences examined are the existence of state-owned enterprises in China compared to the domination of the USA economy by private firms, the large role of the Communist Party in China and the influence of labor and environmental and labor groups in the USA. Power distribution theories focus on the systemic effects of the distribution of power on trade openness and on the pattern of intra-bloc versus between-bloc trade. This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic policy factors in China and the USA, in particular, the role of national patterns of savings, investment and consumption (both private and government). The paper concludes that insofar as the balance of trade is an important component of the trade conflict, domestic macroeconomic factors continue to be important. The resolution of the conflict will have to take into account the respective macroeconomic policies of China and the USA.

Design/methodology/approach

The design is an analytic case study of US–China trade relations with a particular focus on the balance of trade. The conceptual framework employed involves an analysis of macroeconomic policy categories, especially the overall pattern of savings (household, firm and government), investment and consumption. Process tracing over time since China's membership in the WTO is carried out with an eye toward the relationship between the balance of trade and macroeconomic policy.

Findings

The main findings are that there is a strong relation between the respective macroeconomic policies of the USA and China and their trade relations. The domestic political economy of the USA encourages consumption and a low rate of savings. The opposite is true of China where household income is low by design and national savings are high. China depends on the USA to consume what is not consumed domestically. The USA depends on Chinese imports for additional consumption encouraged by its low rate of savings. The two economies are locked in a mutual dependence.

Research limitations/implications

Key research implications are that there should be more focus on domestic macroeconomic policies since these are the root causes of the trade imbalance. This is not to say that trade frictions centering on jobs, subsidies and competition in high technology are unimportant. However, without the resolution of differences in the management of macroeconomic policies, trade conflicts between the USA and China will continue.

Practical implications

Practical implications are huge, in some ways much more important than the academic implications. Macroeconomic policy differences in savings, investment, government spending, taxation and infrastructure are important. Furthermore, there are available tools in both China and the USA to manage the macroeconomy, particularly, monetary and fiscal policy.

Social implications

One implication of this paper is that satisfaction or dissatisfaction of workers is dependent on income distribution which in turn affects trade. Treatment of people in different socioeconomic categories, such as the elderly, the young, and those at working age are a function of macroeconomic policies.

Originality/value

Many people have written about macroeconomics. It is a conventional subfield of economics. The originality of this paper lies in its advocacy of a shift of focus and attention and in the argument that traditional macroeconomics is related to trade. Despite its importance, macroeconomics has not been the center of attention for most political scientists, though economists have made it more central.

Details

International Trade, Politics and Development, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2586-3932

Keywords

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