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Considering the importance of Russia and Ukraine in agriculture, the authors quantify the potential impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food output, trade, prices and food security for the world.

The authors mainly use the quantitative and structural multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to analyze the potential impacts of the conflict on the global food trade pattern and security.

First, the authors found that the conflict would lead to soaring agricultural prices, decreasing trade volume and severe food insecurity especially for countries that rely heavily on grain imports from Ukraine and Russia, such as Egypt and Turkey. Second, major production countries such as the United States and Canada may even benefit from the conflict. Third, restrictions on upstream energy and fertilizer will amplify the negative effects of food insecurity.

This study analyzed the effect of Russia–Ukraine conflict on global food security based on sector linkages and the quantitative general equilibrium trade framework. With a clearer demonstration of the influence about the inherent mechanism based on fewer parameters compared with traditional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) models, the authors showed integrated impacts of the conflict on food output, trade, prices and welfare across sectors and countries.

While the world is yet to fully recuperate from the social and economic repercussions of COVID-19, the Russia–Ukraine conflict poses another major threat causing a humanitarian crisis and economic shock. Although the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and its pledge to “leave no one behind” is a universal commitment to protect the livelihoods of vulnerable groups, the Russia–Ukraine ongoing conflict is causing immense suffering and a gloomy future for the 2030 Agenda. The purpose of this study is to provide a holistic understanding of the ramifications of the Russia–Ukraine war in SDGs progress around the world. Further, the authors shed light on how stakeholders can help engage in support of SDGs in such a challenging time.

This study is qualitative in nature and relies on secondary sources. The motive behind this study is to allow social and economic policy researchers and practitioners to learn from the Russia–Ukraine dispute. The authors conduct a preliminary factual analysis to determine patterns of how the conflict affects the SDGs Agenda. On this basis, the authors propose some recommendations.

While it is still early to measure the full impact of the war on crises worldwide, it is clear that the repercussions will be multi-dimensional. The authors argue that the conflict in Ukraine is severely threatening the achievement of the SDGs. As such, the authors identify patterns of this crisis that have halted progress on SDGs worldwide. Of all SDGs, the authors argue that SDG16 (i.e. peace and justice) is an absolute pre-requisite to sustaining other goals. Further, refugees should be economically empowered, resilient and sustainable food systems need to be put in place and renewable energy transition is required.

This study serves as a springboard for future research by identifying patterns of war crises that have halted progress in achieving sustainable development worldwide. Empirical evidence needs to be conducted on the impact of this ongoing conflict on sustainable development and the 2030 Agenda.

This study could provide guidance to leaders and stakeholders across the globe on patterns for the impact of the Ukraine–Russia conflict on undermining global sustainable development while highlighting the need for major additional efforts to achieve the relevant SDGs.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to analyse the threats the Russia–Ukraine dispute presents to the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for SDGs.

This paper attempts to investigate the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the returns and volatility of the United States (US) natural gas futures market.

The study uses secondary data of 996 trading day provided by the US Department of Energy and investing.com websites and applies the event study methodology in addition to the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) family models.

The findings from the exponential EGARCH (1,1) estimate are the best indication of a significant positive effects of the Ukraine–Russia war on the returns and volatility of the US natural gas futures prices. The cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of the event study show that the natural gas futures prices reacted negatively but not significantly to the Russian–Ukraine war at the event date window [−1,1] and the [−15, −4] event window. CARs for the longer pre and post-event window display significant positive values and coincides with the standard finance theory for the case of the US natural gas futures over the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

This is the first study to examine the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on natural gas futures prices in the United States. Thus, it provides indications on the behavior of investors in this market and proposes new empirical evidence that help in investment analyses and decisions.

The conflict in Russian Ukraine is a problem for the world economy because it hinders growth and drives up inflation when it is already high. The trade route between India and Russia is also impacted by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. This study aims to compile the most recent data on how the present global economic crisis is affecting it, with particular emphasis on the Indian economy.

This research develops a mathematical forecasting model to evaluate how the Russia-Ukraine crisis would affect the Indian economy when perturbations are applied to the major transport sectors. Input-output modeling (I-O model) and interval programing (IP) are the two precise methods used in the model. The inoperability I-O model developed by Wassily Leontief examines how disruption in one sector of the economy spreads to the other. To capture data uncertainties, IP has been added to IIM.

This study uses the forecasted inoperability value to analyze how the sectors are interconnected. Economic loss is used to determine the lowest and highest priority sectors due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Indian economy. Furthermore, this study provides a decision-support conclusion for studying the sectors under various scenarios.

In future studies, other sectors could be added to study the Russian-Ukrainian crises’ effects on the Indian economy. Perturbation is only applied to transport sectors and could be applied to other sectors for studying the effects of the crisis. The availability of incomplete data is a significant concern in this study.

Russia-Ukraine conflict is a significant blow to the global economy and affects the global transportation network. This study discusses the application of the IIM-IP model to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It also forecasts the values to examine how the crisis affected the Indian economy. This study uses a variety of scenarios to create a decision-support conclusion table that aids decision-makers in analyzing the Indian economy’s lowest and most affected sectors as a result of the crisis.

This study investigates the impacts of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the cross-correlation between agricultural commodity prices and crude oil prices.

The authors used MultiFractal Detrended Fluctuation Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-X-DFA) to explore the correlation behavior before and during conflict. The authors analyzed the price connections between future prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities. Data consists of daily futures price returns for agricultural commodities (Corn, Soybean and Wheat) and Crude Oil (Brent) traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from Aug 3, 2020, to July 29, 2022.

The results suggest that cross-correlation behavior changed after the conflict. The multifractal behavior was observed in the cross correlations. The Russia–Ukraine conflict caused an increase in the series' fractal strength. The study findings showed that the correlations involving the wheat market were higher and anti-persistent behavior was observed.

The study was limited by the number of observations after the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

This study contributes to the literature that investigates the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the financial market. As this is a recent event, as far as we know, we did not find another study that investigated cross-correlation in agricultural commodities using multifractal analysis.

Social media has played a pivotal role in polarizing views on Russia–Ukraine conflict. The effects of polarization in online interactions have been extensively studied in many contexts. This research aims to examine how multiple social media sources may act as an integrator of information and act as a platform for depolarizing behaviors.

This study analyzes the communications of 6,662 tweets related to the sanctions imposed on Russia by using textual analytics and predictive modeling.

The research findings reveal that the tweeting behavior of netizens was depolarized because of information from multiple social media sources. However, the influx of information from non-organizational sources such as trending topics and discussions has a depolarizing impact on the user’s pre-established attitude.

For policymakers, conflict mediators and observers, and members of society in general, there is a need for (1) continuous and consistent communication throughout the crisis, (2) transparency in the information being communicated and (3) public awareness of the polarized and conflicting information being provided from multiple actors that may be biased in the claims being made about the conflict crisis.

While previous research has examined Russia–Ukraine conflict from a variety of perspectives, this is the first study to examine how social media might be used to reduce attitude polarization during times of conflict.

The purpose of this paper was identification and empirical assessment of the differentiation of consumers' attitudes in Ukraine and Poland to Russian brands and other brands offered on the Russian market after Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

The main research methods include a systematic literature review and the authors' own surveys conducted in November 2022. The research sample comprised 950 consumers – 67% of them were Poles, 30% – Ukrainians and 3% from other countries.

A respondents' country (Poland and Ukraine) does not impact attitudes to brands offered on the Russian market after Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Moreover, it does not affect and differentiate emotional engagement in the conflict and assistance to war victims. Cluster analysis resulted in identifying two groups on the basis of consumers' declared emotional reactions to the war. The first group was smaller (N = 353, 37.2%), referred to as “indifferent consumers”, and was characterized by a greater inclination to purchase brands offered in Russia. The other cluster, referred to as “sensitive consumers” (N = 597, 62.8%), comprises those engaged in offering assistance to war victims, showing strong emotions in connection with the aggression and military activities and characterized by a clearly negative attitude to Russian and other offered brands and an inclination to boycott these brands.

A short time horizon, the study confined to two countries, difficulties in reaching Ukrainian respondents due to power failures in Ukraine in the period of conducting the survey (November 2022), a non-representative research sample – overrepresentation of people aged 18–25 years.

The research study contributes to the knowledge about consumer brand attitudes and preferences under unique social, economic and market conditions. These conditions were created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as well as the international and global character of the war in Ukraine. The significant implications of the study refer to brand communication policies and companies' CSR-related declarations. A number of consumers' errors were recorded, resulting from wrong brand retrieval, which were rectified at a later stage as a result of international restrictions imposed on Russia, harsh media criticism and social international embargoes imposed on brands offered in Russia. The marketing communication of contemporary global brands should give consideration to the informative function of CSR activities, and the communication process should be continuous. Critical attitudes and an inclination to boycott brands point to the possible consequences faced by inconsistent and ethically doubtful brand policies. This implication is clearly confirmed by the results of the study.

The authors also wish to highlight the implications for practice and society. As mentioned earlier, Polish consumers involved in providing aid to victims of the war also expressed their opposition to the war by boycotting Russian products and international brands remaining in Russia. Popularization of the research results obtained by the authors can be a form of sensitizing the public to the need for long-term relief, awakening global awareness of the essence and importance of sanctions imposed on Russia, as well as the possibility of expressing opposition through individual purchasing decisions and boycotting brands still present in Russia.

The study allowed for identifying consumers' differentiated brand attitudes in two countries: a country inflicted by war (Ukraine) and a front-line country, strongly supporting Ukraine (Poland). The research contributes to consumer behavior theories and studies of consumer attitudes and preferences from the perspective of international corporations' CSR activities under the unique conditions of war. Also, it contributes to the knowledge of the mechanism of forming attitudes to Russian and international brands offered in Russia among CEE consumers.

This study examined the impact of war/conflict-related news on the Russian and Ukrainian stock markets in the build-up and beginning of the war that sparked in the year 2022.

In order to examine the impact of war-related news on stock returns, data were gathered from the United States (US) and Russian stock indices, oil price and volatile index (VIX) from Yahoo.finance; Ukrainian stock values from pfts.ua website and daily related news retrieved from nexis.com were analysed. The data were gathered from January 1, 2022 to February 24, 2022. Seeming unrealated regressions (SUR) and exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) models were carried out to determine the formulated correlations. This study controlled the oil price, US stock returns, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) VIX and difference in stock returns of Russia and Ukraine.

The results are presented two-fold: first, war-related news between the two countries enhanced volatility and caused a significant decline in the stock market indices for both countries. Second, the Russian stock market faced a steeper decline in the build-up and the actual beginning of the war than the Ukrainian stock market. Notably, the Russian markets feared the adverse economic consequences that stemmed from the sanctions the US and the Western world imposed.

As this study was based on early evidence, future studies with a longer window may provide better insights. This present study is restricted to the stock returns of the countries directly involved in the build-up towards war. Studies focusing on the impact of other asset classes, currencies, commodities and global stock markets might offer holistic insights.

The study outcomes suggest that global portfolio investors should stay away from stock markets of the war-raged countries and equity markets in general, but instead look for safe-haven assets.

The paper evaluates stock markets' performance during the pre-war period, considering the context of this historical war between the neighbours. It is important to understand this issue as this war is subject to sanctions by the US and leads to a global supply chain crisis.

The new geopolitical context being created by the Ukraine–Russia war highlights the need for structured approaches to planning and implementing unhooking strategies and developing associated supply chain reconfigurations.

The authors have interviewed six supply chain executives to begin the investigation of the key supply chain risks and disruptions caused by the Ukraine–Russia war.

Initial corporate responses to the Ukraine–Russia conflict were significant, perhaps unprecedented. However, as institutional, corporate and consumer sentiment influence reconfiguration responses, the authors have identified three supply chain pathways that underpin unhooking actions.

The authors selected respondents from each different type of supply chain interaction with the conflict zone (inbound, outbound and within), covering both components/intermediate products and finished goods. Therefore the sample size was small and designed to fit in with the spirit of the pathway initiative.

The authors reinforce the key role of procurement and supply chain management in not just supply but also in downstream markets that can accelerate decoupling and mitigate the associated supply chain disruptions.

The authors observe that supply chains are increasingly being weaponized, as external institutional and consumer influences necessitate companies to unhook from conflict zones, countries, or regimes. They are becoming increasingly intertwined with foreign policy.

The novelty of the contribution to the associated discourse is the perspective that after decades of increasing globalization and geographic dispersion of supply chains, the unhooking effort is not limited to a firm and its internal operations but involves multiple stakeholders. For instance, the full extent of the complex linkages of supply chains, networks and relationships that touch conflict zone geographies must be considered, particularly those that are incompatible with the firm's values and aims, including those of their stakeholders.

India is not geographically close to either Russia or Ukraine. However, India's trade relations with them make it vulnerable to the consequences of the war between these countries. Thus, the present study aims to examine the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on various sectoral indices of the Indian economy.

Event study methodology has been used in this study for analysis. The date of the war announcement is the event day. The sample studied includes ten sectors of the Indian economy listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Results correspond to the period of −167 days to +20 days of the announcement of the war, i.e. from June 25, 2021, to March 28, 2022.

Almost all the sample sectors earned significantly positive abnormal returns in the post-event period. The metal industry has led this group by showcasing the highest abnormal returns. Though Indian sectors made overall positive returns, the market soon corrected itself and abnormal returns were wiped out.

These results can benefit portfolio managers, analysts, investors and policymakers in hedging risks and selecting suitable investments during increased global uncertainty. The study's conclusions help policymakers establish an institutional and supervisory framework that will make it easier to spot systematic risks and reduce them by putting countercyclical measures in place.

India has no geographical proximity or trade relations with Russia or Ukraine, as strong as any other European country. However, Russia has remained a strong ally to India in the trade of defense equipment. Similar is the case with Ukraine, a significant global partner for India. Thus, the impact of conflict between these two countries has not been limited to Europe only but has also engulfed related economies. Hence, the present study is one of the first attempts to examine the burns sustained by the Indian economy due to this war.