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Due to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four plausible narratives of the future of Isfahan. Also, the authors described the problems of city foresight in the Global South.

This paper chronicles the Schwartzian steps taken to build explorative scenarios of Isfahan City in Iran in 2040. After using a STEEPV (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Value) analysis, the authors prioritized the collected variables by combining influence diagrams, the iceberg metaphor and an expert-based survey. Once the key uncertainties were derived, four scenarios were developed and discussed.

Through thematic analysis of the official visions of Isfahan’s future and the juxtaposition of these narratives with insight yielded in the scenario-development process, the paper concludes that the Northernness of the prevailing urban imaginaries, uncritical mimetic benchmarking, depoliticization of urban futures and the decorative reductionistic visions colonize urban futures in Isfahan/Iran. Critical/deconstructive city foresight and application of discomfort/ignorance criteria in the generation of scenarios can improve the rigor and quality of city foresight in the Global South.

The application of city foresight in the Global South has been limited. The paper is a step toward bridging this gap and providing some recommendations on how city foresight in the Global South might differ from its counterparts in the Global North.

The purpose of this study is to identify the drivers and future scenarios of Iran’s Social Security Organization.

The research is applied in terms of orientation and mixed in terms of methodology. In this research, the methods of theme analysis, root definitions, fuzzy Delphi and Cocoso were used. The theoretical population is the managers and senior experts of the social security organization, and the sampling method was done in a judgmental way. The tools of data collection were interviews and questionnaires. The interview tool was used to extract the main and subdrivers of the research and develop the scenarios.

Through theme analysis, 35 subdrivers were extracted in the form of economic, sociocultural, financial and investment, policy, marketing, environmental and legal themes. Due to the large number of subdrivers, these factors were screened with fuzzy Delphi. Eleven drivers had defuzzied coefficient higher than 0.7 and were selected for final prioritization. The final drivers were prioritized with the CoCoSo technique, and the two drivers of social security holdings governance and state of government revenues had the highest priority. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of prosperity, resilient social security, unstable development and collapse have been developed.

Some of the suggestions of the research are: using the capacity of FinTechs and financial startups to invest the government revenues of the organization, using digital technologies such as business intelligence for more efficient decisions and developing corporate governance in the organization.

Indigenous knowledge is an essential element for unveiling the evolutionary journey of socio-culture phenomena. One of the key challenges in foresight exercises is to incorporate social-culture issues such as culture, lifestyle and behavior (referred as indigenous knowledge) into the study. However, the statistical trends of those factors tend to be either not available or limited unlike the population or economic related factors. The purpose of this study is to present the use of valuable data from indigenous knowledge to enhance the foresight exercise through the better understanding of social dynamics and changes.

The fragmented form of indigenous knowledge is analyzed and converted into a structured data format and then interpreted to unveil the evolutionary journey of socio-cultural phenomena. This study applies a scenario development method to visualize the results of foresight by comparing before and after the integration of indigenous knowledge. Finally, an assessment was conducted to reflect the value enhancement resulting from the integration of indigenous knowledge into the foresight process.

With the proposed approach, the foresight study on the future development of Thai food was demonstrated. The findings of this study show that the use of indigenous knowledge on eating behavior, cooking style and food flavor helps improve the alternative scenarios for the future development of Thai foods.

Indigenous knowledge can be applied to develop plausible scenarios and future images in foresight exercises. However, by nature, indigenous knowledge is not well-structured and, therefore, needs to be analyzed and turned into structured data so that it can be interpreted before integrating into the foresight process.

This study is one of few studies addressing the opportunities for integrating indigenous knowledge into foresight process. Indigenous knowledge can unveil the evolution of socio-cultural changes to improve the results of foresight study, especially the cases where statistical data and trends may not be sufficient to foresee future development.

This systematic literature review investigates the contribution of design thinking (DT) as a process and tool to drive innovation in a sustainable built environment (SBE) and develops a new model for sustainability research integrating DT and future thinking approaches toward achieving a unified DT and foresight notion for future research and applications.

This review was based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Open-access English articles published between 2000 and 2022 identified using the EBSCOhost, Emerald Insight, DOJA, JSTOR, Scopus and Taylor and Francis database searches were reviewed. The review framework deploys a previously proposed modified Ansoff matrix with an integrated innovation matrix to identify and analyze the challenges and opportunities for innovation growth in SBE. Additionally, a citation analysis was conducted to explore the impact of DT for innovation in SBE, and a proposed framework based on design by drawing on foresight theory was developed.

Research on DT for innovation in SBE faces the challenge of unanticipated impacts. According to the average number of citations per document, innovation associated with new solutions within a new context seems to become highly influential. Additionally, research gaps exist in the integration of foresight and DT into sustainability research to identify new contexts and solutions to SBE. A model of foresight design thinking (FDT) is proposed to guide future research and support the practical application of DT in sustainability.

This analysis was limited by the selection criteria as only certain keywords were used and English-only articles were selected. Future research should consider the use of DT for innovation in SBE using various important keywords, which would improve research findings and expand the contribution of DT to SBE.

The FDT model offers a new holistic framework for the iterative process of reframing and reperception, focusing on divergent and convergent thinking with the goal of contributing to SBE practices.

The integrated framework of DT and foresight can contribute to the study and development of sustainable innovation and a strategic shift toward a sustainable society.

The integration of DT, foresight and sustainability can broaden the horizons of sustainability research by systematically addressing future challenges related to SBE, which can be translated into feasible and innovative solutions. Thus, the FDT model complements the application of DT in sustainable innovation in this research field.

Purpose: The business world has become more turbulent than ever. Organisations must be proactive to meet the challenges of the increasingly disruptive, dynamic, and unpredictable world. One technique that has supported leaders and organisations under challenging circumstances is ‘backcasting’, which works by envisioning a desirable future state and then working backwards to attain it. The current study aims to extend an understanding of the backcasting practices and strategic approaches that can be used by leadership teams in different industries in order to survive in turbulent times and can be adapted within and beyond any pandemic.

Methodology: The research employs a desktop research method to review and compare the most commonly used strategies that leaders from different sectors can use for their respective organisations to thrive in the VUCA world.

Findings: There needs to be more research on the applicability and relevance of backcasting that the leaders of different sectors can employ. The study would provide insights that would bridge the existing research gap and come up with suitable strategies that can be employed for dealing with VUCA challenges in the Indian context.

Significance: The outcome of the study will be helpful to the leaders in designing and aligning ‘out of the box’ backcasting strategies to survive in the highly disruptive world.

This paper aims to consider the relationship between urban events and urban public space, asking whether cities have enough space for events and whether events have enough space in cities.

Policy analysis surrounding events and festivals in the Netherlands is used to understand the dynamics of urban events, supported by content analysis of policy documents. A vignette of event space struggles in Amsterdam illustrates the contradictions of the event/space relationship.

The research identifies a policy shift in the Netherlands towards urban events from expansive, festivalisation strategies to defensive, NIMBYist policies. It exposes contradictions between protecting space as a living resource and the exploitation of space for regenerative purposes. Three future scenarios for urban events are outlined: conflict and competition, growth and harmony and digitalisation and virtualisation.

Develops scenarios for the future relationship between events and urban space.

Provides an analysis of the recursive spatial implications of the growth of the events sector for cities and the growth of cities for events.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the efficiency of a Brazilian steelmaking company’s reheating process of the hot rolling mill.

The research method is a quantitative modeling. The main research techniques are data envelopment analysis, TOBIT regression and simulation supported by artificial neural networks. The model’s input and output variables consist of the average billet weight, number of billets processed in a batch, gas consumption, thermal efficiency, backlog and production yield within a specific period. The analysis spans 20 months.

The key findings include an average current efficiency of 81%, identification of influential variables (average billet weight, billet count and gas consumption) and simulated analysis. Among the simulated scenarios, the most promising achieved an average efficiency of 95% through increased equipment availability and billet size.

Additional favorable simulated scenarios entail the utilization of higher pre-reheating temperatures for cold billets, representing a large amount of savings in gas consumption and a reduction in CO2 emissions.

This study’s primary innovation lies in providing steelmaking practitioners with a systematic approach to evaluating and enhancing the efficiency of reheating processes.

This study aims to predict China's carbon emission intensity and put forward a set of policy recommendations for further development of a low-carbon economy in China.

In this paper, the Interaction Effect Grey Power Model of N Variables (IEGPM(1,N)) is developed, and the Dragonfly algorithm (DA) is used to select the best power index for the model. Specific model construction methods and rigorous mathematical proofs are given. In order to verify the applicability and validity, this paper compares the model with the traditional grey model and simulates the carbon emission intensity of China from 2014 to 2021. In addition, the new model is used to predict the carbon emission intensity of China from 2022 to 2025, which can provide a reference for the 14th Five-Year Plan to develop a scientific emission reduction path.

The results show that if the Chinese government does not take effective policy measures in the future, carbon emission intensity will not achieve the set goals. The IEGPM(1,N) model also provides reliable results and works well in simulation and prediction.

The paper considers the nonlinear and interactive effect of input variables in the system's behavior and proposes an improved grey multivariable model, which fills the gap in previous studies.

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between Lean manufacturing and Industry 4.0 for small and medium size of enterprise in Japan and Brazil.

The authors conducted a quantitative survey (20 companies in Japan and 30 companies in Brazil) combined with a qualitative interview (2 companies in Japan and 15 companies in Brazil).

According to the quantitative study, 90% of them practice Lean manufacturing and 40% of them practice Industry 4.0. In the qualitative study in Brazil, four managers responded that the Lean manufacturing is a prerequisite for Industry 4.0 since any production process with waste cannot be productive, even with sophisticated digitalization technology.

The authors explored further the relationship between “defensive Digital Transformation (DX),” which is based mainly on Lean manufacturing, and “offensive DX,” which relates to customer value creation through Industry 4.0. This study clarifies the relationship and plays as a roadmap to develop better the manufacturing from current status to the vision of Industry 4.0.

In the reduction of food waste and the provision of food to the hungry, food banks play critical roles. However, as they are generally run by charitable organisations that are chronically short of human and other resources, their inbound logistics efforts commonly experience difficulties in two key areas: 1) how to organise stocks of donated food, and 2) how to assess the donated items quality and fitness for purpose. To address both these problems, the authors aimed to develop a novel artificial intelligence (AI)-based approach to food quality and warehousing management in food banks.

For diagnosing the quality of donated food items, the authors designed a convolutional neural network (CNN); and to ascertain how best to arrange such items within food banks' available space, reinforcement learning was used.

Testing of the proposed innovative CNN demonstrated its ability to provide consistent, accurate assessments of the quality of five species of donated fruit. The reinforcement-learning approach, as well as being capable of devising effective storage schemes for donated food, required fewer computational resources that some other approaches that have been proposed.

Viewed through the lens of expectation-confirmation theory, which the authors found useful as a framework for research of this kind, the proposed AI-based inbound-logistics techniques exceeded normal expectations and achieved positive disconfirmation.

As well as enabling machines to learn how inbound logistics are handed by human operators, this pioneering study showed that such machines could achieve excellent performance: i.e., that the consistency provided by AI operations could in future dramatically enhance such logistics' quality, in the specific case of food banks.

This paper’s AI-based inbound-logistics approach differs considerably from others, and was found able to effectively manage both food-quality assessments and food-storage decisions more rapidly than its counterparts.