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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 July 2023

Sophie Ambrosat and Christian Grünwald

Although trends such as digitisation, demographic change and flexibilisation of work have been recognised by many human resource (HR) practitioners, this viewpoint paper argues…

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Abstract

Purpose

Although trends such as digitisation, demographic change and flexibilisation of work have been recognised by many human resource (HR) practitioners, this viewpoint paper argues that future-orientation in the HR sector could benefit from making use of the foresight perspective. Foresight is understood as the systematic, method-guided analysis and discussion of possible future developments. The goal is to build future-robust structures in organisations at an early stage and to identify emerging skill needs. This paper aims to make HR professionals aware of the potential of foresight for their strategic activities.

Design/methodology/approach

Introducing the approach of strategic foresight to the field of HR, this study derives the argumentation from a discussion of literature and practitioners’ experiences.

Findings

So far, foresight in companies has mainly been conducted by strategy and innovation units, with HR and organisational development playing a subordinate role. However, foresight can contribute to gaining a competitive advantage and proactively shape future success factors in the organisation.

Practical implications

The authors advise practitioners to begin implementing strategic foresight within HR departments and organisational development to build future-proof organisations.

Originality/value

This paper introduces strategic foresight to the field of HR and points to a lack of integration between potentially existing foresight activities and people and culture considerations for the future.

Details

Strategic HR Review, vol. 22 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-4398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 September 2013

Ian Roberge

– This exploratory article aims to define foresight and consider its use in public management. Impediments to foresight best practices are also discussed.

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Abstract

Purpose

This exploratory article aims to define foresight and consider its use in public management. Impediments to foresight best practices are also discussed.

Design/methodology/approach

The research is based on the literature, including both primary and secondary sources. Canada serves as a case study to discuss foresight practices.

Findings

Foresight has the potential to be useful from a governance perspective. Foresight practices, however, are limited by the need to overcome departmental boundaries, political impediments and, arguably, governments' abating policy capacity.

Research limitations/implications

The purpose of this article is to introduce foresight limiting to an extent the depth of the analysis. Canada is neither a foresight leader nor at the bottom of the list. Conclusions drawn from this case are, despite differing political and administrative contexts, representative of problems faced by many governments in using foresight.

Originality/value

The field of public management has paid little attention to foresight, though governments do make use of this instrument. This article is one of the first to consider foresight, not from the perspective of the futures field, but from that of the discipline of public management.

Details

International Journal of Public Sector Management, vol. 26 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0951-3558

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 July 2006

Jarunee Wonglimpiyarat

The paper aims to deal with the application of foresight in devising strategic technology policies in Thailand.

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Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to deal with the application of foresight in devising strategic technology policies in Thailand.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper examines the foresight exercise carried out by the Thai government, through the National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA) and the APEC Center for Technology Foresight, to examine the potential of the Thai industry and to devise development policies necessary to make the Thai industry successful by the year 2020.

Findings

The results of the foresight process provide a comprehensive overview of the trends of the Thai industry. The study contributes towards the formulation of feasible technological and industrial policies, which would enhance the country's ability to improve the competitive position for tomorrow.

Originality/value

The paper provides an overview of Thailand's comprehensive national foresight program.

Details

Foresight, vol. 8 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 September 2007

Elisa Ughetto

This paper attempts to interpret Foresight in the light of the Triple Helix concept.

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper attempts to interpret Foresight in the light of the Triple Helix concept.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper explores, in the light of the Triple Helix framework, the architecture of a Technology Foresight project which was carried out in Piemonte (Italy) in 2006, where government, firms, universities, research organizations and financial institutions were gathered to discuss on the long‐term implications of policy decisions and to develop strategic visions that could help policy making and priority setting.

Findings

Drawing on its participative approach, Foresight can be seen as a way of catalyzing the multidisciplinary relationships among the three different spheres of the Triple Helix model, thus bringing them to dialogue and to share a common space for building visions on long‐term challenges. Participation of stakeholders with different backgrounds, dynamics of overlapping opinions, emergence of hybrid organizations and exchange of formal roles are some of the elements characterizing a Foresight exercise that reflect a Triple Helix configuration.

Originality/value

The value of the paper is in exploring a Foresight exercise through the lenses of the Triple Helix model.

Details

Foresight, vol. 9 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 December 2023

Vaishali Dhiman and Manpreet Arora

Foresight J's journey started in 1999, and in 2022, it marked the conclusion of its 24 years of publication. This paper aims to provide an overall overview of important research…

Abstract

Purpose

Foresight J's journey started in 1999, and in 2022, it marked the conclusion of its 24 years of publication. This paper aims to provide an overall overview of important research trends published in Foresight J between 1999 and 2022 by conducting a quantitative analysis of the journal’s literature. The overarching goal is to provide valuable insights into the dynamics of scholarly communication, aiding researchers, institutions and policymakers in assessing the significance and influence of academic work, guiding future research directions and academic evaluation.

Design/methodology/approach

The two bibliometrics methodologies that make up the methodology of this article are scientific mapping and performance analysis. Authors have explained the development and composition of the Foresight J using these methods. The SCOPUS database is being used in current research to analyse several dimensions, such as the evolution of publications by year, the most cited papers, core authors and researchers, leading countries and prolific institutions. Moreover, the conceptual structure, scope, burst detection and co-occurrence analysis of the journal are mapped using network visualization software such as VOSviewer, CiteSpace and RStudio.

Findings

With a strong track record of output over the years, Foresight J has continued to develop in terms of publications. It is determined that “Saritas” is the author with the greatest overall impact. However, according to SCOPUS bibliometric data, “Blackman” and “Richardson” are the authors with the greatest relevance in terms of the quantity of articles. In addition, it becomes apparent that the USA, Australia and the UK are very productive nations in terms of publications. The most popular fields of the journal have always been forecasting, foresight, scenario planning, strategic planning, decision-making, technology and sustainable development. These are also the author keywords that appear the most frequently. In contrast, new study themes in the Foresight J include digital technologies, innovation, sustainability, blockchain, artificial intelligence and sustainability.

Research limitations/implications

Several noteworthy research implications are provided by the bibliometric study of Foresight J. “Saritas” is the author with the most overall impact, indicating that the precise contributions and influence of this researcher in the fields of forecasting, foresight and related fields. Given that “Blackman” and “Richardson” are well-known writers, it is also critical to examine the scope and complexity of their contributions to potentially identify recurring themes or patterns in their writing. The geographic productivity results, which show that the USA, Australia and the UK are the top three countries for Foresight J publications, may encourage more research into regional differences, patterns of collaboration and the worldwide distribution of research endeavours in the context of forecasting and foresight. Popular fields including scenario planning, forecasting, foresight and sustainable development are consistent, indicating persistent research interests. Examining the causes of these subjects’ ongoing relevance can reveal information about the consistency and development of scholarly interests over time.

Practical implications

Foresight J’s bibliometric analysis has real-world applications for many stakeholders. It helps editors and publishers make strategic decisions about outreach and content by providing insights regarding the journal’s influence. Assessing organizational and author productivity helps institutions allocate resources more effectively. Policymakers acquire an instrument to evaluate research patterns and distribute funds efficiently. In general, bibliometric study of a journal helps decisionmakers in academic publishing make well-informed choices that maximize the potential of options for authors, editors, institutions and policymakers.

Social implications

The societal ramifications of bibliometrically analysing Foresight J from 1999 and 2022 are substantial. This analysis highlights, over the past 24 years, research trends, technological developments and societal priorities have changed by methodically looking through the journal’s articles. Gaining knowledge about the academic environment covered by the journal can help raise public awareness of important topics and promote critical thinking. In addition, the analysis can support evidence-based decision-making by alerting decision makers to the influential research that was published in Foresight J. This could have an impact on the course of policies pertaining to innovation, technology and societal development.

Originality/value

This study presents a first comprehensive article that provides a general overview of the main trends and patterns of the research over the Foresight J’s history since its inception. Also, the paper will help the scientific community to know the value and impact of Foresight J.

Details

foresight, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 November 2023

Thirawut Phichonsatcha, Nathasit Gerdsri, Duanghathai Pentrakoon and Akkharawit Kanjana-Opas

Indigenous knowledge is an essential element for unveiling the evolutionary journey of socio-culture phenomena. One of the key challenges in foresight exercises is to incorporate…

Abstract

Purpose

Indigenous knowledge is an essential element for unveiling the evolutionary journey of socio-culture phenomena. One of the key challenges in foresight exercises is to incorporate social-culture issues such as culture, lifestyle and behavior (referred as indigenous knowledge) into the study. However, the statistical trends of those factors tend to be either not available or limited unlike the population or economic related factors. The purpose of this study is to present the use of valuable data from indigenous knowledge to enhance the foresight exercise through the better understanding of social dynamics and changes.

Design/methodology/approach

The fragmented form of indigenous knowledge is analyzed and converted into a structured data format and then interpreted to unveil the evolutionary journey of socio-cultural phenomena. This study applies a scenario development method to visualize the results of foresight by comparing before and after the integration of indigenous knowledge. Finally, an assessment was conducted to reflect the value enhancement resulting from the integration of indigenous knowledge into the foresight process.

Findings

With the proposed approach, the foresight study on the future development of Thai food was demonstrated. The findings of this study show that the use of indigenous knowledge on eating behavior, cooking style and food flavor helps improve the alternative scenarios for the future development of Thai foods.

Practical implications

Indigenous knowledge can be applied to develop plausible scenarios and future images in foresight exercises. However, by nature, indigenous knowledge is not well-structured and, therefore, needs to be analyzed and turned into structured data so that it can be interpreted before integrating into the foresight process.

Originality/value

This study is one of few studies addressing the opportunities for integrating indigenous knowledge into foresight process. Indigenous knowledge can unveil the evolution of socio-cultural changes to improve the results of foresight study, especially the cases where statistical data and trends may not be sufficient to foresee future development.

Details

foresight, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 3 July 2018

Mike McCardle, J. Chris White and Roger Calantone

Firms with market foresight – knowledge of market changes ahead of competitors – can convert that knowledge into creative and timely new product offerings. Based on a…

Abstract

Purpose

Firms with market foresight – knowledge of market changes ahead of competitors – can convert that knowledge into creative and timely new product offerings. Based on a discovery-oriented process, working closely with managers throughout the research process, we develop and test a framework delineating market information determinants and new product outcomes of market foresight.

Methodology

Using data collected primarily from senior executives of industrial manufacturers, the hypotheses were tested using partial least squares.

Findings

The results indicate that external (active scanning, lead user collaboration, and market experiments) and internal sources (boundary spanner input and interdepartmental connectedness) of market information positively affect market foresight. Further, the effects of active scanning, market experiments, and interdepartmental connectedness on market foresight are positively moderated by the organization’s open-mindedness. These findings also provide evidence that firms with superior market foresight develop more creative products, introduce them to the market faster, and introduce them at a more opportune time.

Practical implications

Our findings demonstrate that managers’ knowledge of market changes ahead of competitors is enhanced through acquiring both external and internal sources of market information. Furthermore, market foresight is significantly enhanced by managers being open-minded to the information gained from these sources as it may challenge long-held assumptions.

Originality/value

This chapter introduces a new construct, market foresight capability, to the literature that will aid managers in developing greater insight into emerging shifts in the market. For researchers, this new line of inquiry expands our understanding as to the critical sources and new product outcomes of obtaining future-focused market information.

Abstract

Details

Governing for the Future: Designing Democratic Institutions for a Better Tomorrow
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-056-5

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 December 2023

Ruxin Zhang, Jun Lin, Suicheng Li and Ying Cai

This study aims to explore how to overcome and address the loss of exploratory innovation, thereby achieving greater success in exploratory innovation. This phenomenon of loss…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore how to overcome and address the loss of exploratory innovation, thereby achieving greater success in exploratory innovation. This phenomenon of loss occurs when enterprises decrease their investment in and engagement with exploratory innovation, ultimately leading to an insufficient amount of such innovation efforts. Drawing on dynamic capabilities, this study investigates the relationship between organizational foresight and exploratory innovation and examines the moderating role of breakthrough orientation/financial orientation.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used survey data collected from 296 Chinese high-tech companies in multiple industries and sectors.

Findings

The evidence produced by this study reveals that three elements of organizational foresight (i.e. environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and integrating capabilities) positively influence exploratory innovation. Furthermore, this positive effect is strengthened in the context of a high-breakthrough orientation. Moreover, the relationships among environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and exploratory innovation become weaker as an enterprise’s financial orientation increases, whereas a strong financial orientation does not affect the relationship between integrating capabilities and exploratory innovation.

Research limitations/implications

Ambidexterity is key to successful enterprise innovation. Compared with exploitative innovation, it is by no means easy to engage in exploratory innovation, which is especially important in high-tech companies. While the loss of exploratory innovation has been observed, few empirical studies have explored ways to promote exploratory innovation more effectively. A key research implication of this study pertains to the role of organizational foresight in the improvement of exploratory innovation in the context of high-tech companies.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the broader literature on exploratory innovation and organizational foresight and provides practical guidance for high-tech companies regarding ways of avoiding the loss of exploratory innovation and becoming more successful at exploratory innovation.

Details

Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, vol. 39 no. 13
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0885-8624

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 July 2022

Shermon Ortega Cruz and Nicole Anne Kahn-Parreño

This paper aims to introduce, unpack, explore, make sense and share Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as a futures concept, framework and methodology to…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to introduce, unpack, explore, make sense and share Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as a futures concept, framework and methodology to reconceptualize foresight and reframe anticipatory processes to enable the self and communities to reimagine visions of the future. This indigenous foresight process offers to strip the husk and break the shell of conscious, colonial anticipation and reveal and liberate unconscious imagination that enables ethical aspirations to emerge.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper introduces and examines the context, purpose and process of the four waves of the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach. These were constructed through the use of the Engaged Foresight approach, through workshops, a literature review and an action–learning approach. The first wave, lawak, looks into the breadth of foresight. The second wave, lalim, looks into the depth of foresight. Tayog, the third wave, looks into the peak of foresight. Finally, the fourth wave of foresight kababaang-loob contemplates the nature, values and wisdom of foresight.

Findings

This paper shares the processes, experiences and impacts through five case studies where the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach was applied. This paper shares the impacts of Hiraya Foresight in democratizing and indigenizing futures literacy.

Originality/value

This paper describes and offers Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as an indigenous approach to decolonize futures studies and foresight practice.

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