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Book part
Publication date: 18 July 2016

John F. Kros and William J. Rowe

Business schools are tasked with matching curriculum to techniques that industry practitioners rely on for profitability. Forecasting is a significant part of what many…

Abstract

Business schools are tasked with matching curriculum to techniques that industry practitioners rely on for profitability. Forecasting is a significant part of what many firms use to try to predict budgets and to provide guidance as to the direction the business is headed. This chapter focuses on forecasting and how well business schools match the requirements of industry professionals. Considering its importance to achieving successful business outcomes, forecasting is increasingly becoming a more complex endeavor. Firms must be able to forecast accurately to gain an understanding of the direction the business is taking and to prevent potential setbacks before they occur. Our results suggest that, although techniques vary, in large part business schools are introducing students to the forecasting tools that graduates will need to be successful in an industry setting. The balance of our chapter explores the forecasting tools used by business schools and firms, and the challenge of aligning the software learning curve between business school curriculum and industry expectations.

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Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-534-8

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Article
Publication date: 1 January 1972

Stephen Wheelwright

During recent years a number of techniques have been developed to aid in the forecasting of corporate sales, individual product demand, economic indicators, and other…

Abstract

During recent years a number of techniques have been developed to aid in the forecasting of corporate sales, individual product demand, economic indicators, and other related series. These techniques have included classical time series analysis, multiple regression and adaptive forecasting procedures. As a result of these developments, the individual company and decision maker is faced with the task of selecting the forecasting technique that is most appropriate for his situation. This article reports research conducted at INSEAD on how simulation can be used to compare and evaluate alternative forecasting techniques for a specific application.

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Management Decision, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

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Article
Publication date: 26 September 2008

Peter Maurice Catt

The purpose of this article is to provide a critique of SAP's enterprise resource planning (ERP) (release ECC 6.0) forecasting functionality and offer guidance to SAP…

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3076

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this article is to provide a critique of SAP's enterprise resource planning (ERP) (release ECC 6.0) forecasting functionality and offer guidance to SAP practitioners on overcoming some identified limitations.

Design/methodology/approach

The SAP ERP forecasting functionality is reviewed against prior seminal empirical business forecasting research.

Findings

The SAP ERP system contains robust forecasting methods (exponential smoothing), but could be substantially improved by incorporating simultaneous forecast comparisons, prediction intervals, seasonal plots and/or autocorrelation charts, linear regressions lines for trend analysis, and event management based on structured judgmental forecasting or intervention analysis.

Practical implications

The findings provide guidance to SAP forecasting practitioners for improving forecast accuracy via important forecasting steps outside of the system.

Originality/value

The paper contributes to the need for studies of widely adopted ERP systems to critique vendor claims and validate functionality through prior empirical research, while offering insights and guidance to SAP's 12 million+ worldwide enterprise system practitioners.

Details

Journal of Enterprise Information Management, vol. 21 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1741-0398

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Article
Publication date: 4 December 2017

Chathebert Mudhunguyo

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate accuracy of macro fiscal forecasts done by Government of Zimbabwe and the spillover effects of forecasting errors over the period…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate accuracy of macro fiscal forecasts done by Government of Zimbabwe and the spillover effects of forecasting errors over the period 2010-2015.

Design/methodology/approach

In line with the study objectives, the study employed the root mean square error methodology to measure the accuracy of macro fiscal forecasts, borrowing from the work of Calitz et al. (2013). The spillover effects were assessed through running simple regression in Eviews programme. The data used in the analysis are based on annual national budget forecasts presented to the Parliament by the Minister of Finance. Actual data come from the Ministry of Finance budget outturns and Zimbabwe Statistical Agency published national accounts.

Findings

The results of the root mean square error revealed relatively high levels of macro-fiscal forecasting errors, with revenue recording the highest. The forecasting errors display a tendency of under predicting the strength of economic recovery during boom and over predicting its strength during periods of weakness. The study although found significant evidence of GDP forecasting errors translating into revenue forecasting inaccuracies, the GDP forecasting errors fail to fully account for the revenue errors. Revenue errors were, however, found to be positive and significant in explaining the budget balance errors.

Originality/value

In other jurisdictions, particularly developed countries, they undertake regular evaluation of their forecasts in order to improve their forecasting procedures, which translate into quality public service delivery. The situation is lagging in Zimbabwe. Given the poor performance in public service delivery in Zimbabwe, this study contributes in dissecting the sources of the challenge by providing a comprehensive review of macro fiscal forecasts.

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African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 8 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

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Article
Publication date: 1 February 1997

Gillian Rice

Focuses on the implementation of forecasting systems and processes by large organizations. Reports the results of a survey of US firms which reveal that, despite advances…

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2246

Abstract

Focuses on the implementation of forecasting systems and processes by large organizations. Reports the results of a survey of US firms which reveal that, despite advances in computer technology, judgemental forecasting continues to be the method managers prefer. Notes, however, that the incorporation of total quality practices appears to be having some impact on improving systematic approaches to forecasting.

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International Journal of Operations & Production Management, vol. 17 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3577

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Article
Publication date: 1 January 1986

Michael Barron and David Targett

In recent times there has been a change of emphasis in business forecasting. The shift has been away from the technical and statistical aspects. More thought is now being…

Abstract

In recent times there has been a change of emphasis in business forecasting. The shift has been away from the technical and statistical aspects. More thought is now being given to the way in which techniques are used and the context in which they are applied. This article is the first in a series of two which deal with these issues. It describes the role of the manager in forecasting. In particular, it discusses the tasks in designing and planning a forecasting system which are the key to its success and which fall within a manager's responsibility. The second article is concerned with the link between forecasts and the decisions they support.

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Marketing Intelligence & Planning, vol. 4 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-4503

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Article
Publication date: 1 June 1989

Bin‐Shan Lin and Jerome M. Hatcher

Forecasting is considered as a key element in formulatingmanufacturing systems. There is a wealth of information aboutforecasting methods but little has been written about…

Abstract

Forecasting is considered as a key element in formulating manufacturing systems. There is a wealth of information about forecasting methods but little has been written about forecasting systems. An outline of an approach to build Decision Support Systems (DSS) for forecasting in manufacturing is given. A strategic forecasting framework is provided. To integrate the forecasting system into the manufacturing information systems, guidelines for manufacturers are suggested.

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Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 89 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

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Article
Publication date: 2 January 2007

Paul Raspin and Siri Terjesen

Firms face uncertain environments characterized by shifting demographics, disruptive technologies, new industries and competitors, and other challenges. To survive the…

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3624

Abstract

Purpose

Firms face uncertain environments characterized by shifting demographics, disruptive technologies, new industries and competitors, and other challenges. To survive the tumultuous landscape, firm managers “make strategy” by assessing the organization's internal and external environments, questioning assumptions about how the world works and deciding how the firm should operate. We refer to this activity as “forecasting the future” and provide insights from our recent study of 394 senior managers.

Design/methodology/approach

We review the history of scenario planning, from military strategies to Royal Dutch/Shell's analysis of the oil crisis in 1974 and the scenario planning process. From our survey of managers, we identify the major perceived benefits and weaknesses of scenario planning, and how managers forecast the future. We identify two dimensions of forecasting – formality and breadth – and review three modes of forecasting – formal, focused and intuitive – and compare to complexity and costs of formal scenario planning. We conclude with key learning points from our survey.

Findings

When making strategy through scenario planning and forecasting methods, managers need to: examine the validity of current market assumptions used to guide forecasting efforts; involve key stakeholders in a debate about and assessment of these assumptions; update strategic plans with forecasting process outcomes; and regularly review key hypotheses about market events and their performance impacts.

Practical implications

Senior managers must understand the biases in managerial forecasting behavior and to work with these, to support a mix of forecasting behaviors in an organization, to deliberately allocate forecasting resources to cover environmental sectors, to selectively use managers external to the organization, to utilize a variety of sources, and to align forecasting activities with the organizational strategy process.

Originality/value

The paper presents a succinct summary of existing research, including findings from the authors' recent research, for both researchers and practising managers.

Details

Business Strategy Series, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1751-5637

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Article
Publication date: 1 May 1995

Nada R. Sanders

The usage of formal statistical forecasting procedures has beenshown in numerous studies to improve forecast accuracy and,consequently, organizational performance…

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4105

Abstract

The usage of formal statistical forecasting procedures has been shown in numerous studies to improve forecast accuracy and, consequently, organizational performance. However, the process of implementing and managing this technology can run into many stumbling blocks. Identifies six major organizational problems when implementing and developing formal statistical forecasting procedures. Provides solution strategies to these problems and discusses specific managerial implications. This information is important to managers in order to gain the greatest benefit from the forecasting function.

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Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 95 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

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Article
Publication date: 1 January 1998

Sigrun Steinhagen, Jenny Darroch and Bill Bailey

The wine industry is typical of many other horticultural industries in that it faces tremendous uncertainty, due to long lag phases between the initial planting…

Abstract

The wine industry is typical of many other horticultural industries in that it faces tremendous uncertainty, due to long lag phases between the initial planting, harvesting, bottling and sales, and seasonal variation between years. As a consequence, marketers face constant challenges when matching supply with demand. While much literature exists on forecasting, forecasting within the wine industry has not yet been documented. An exploratory study of 11 New Zealand wineries, using in‐depth semi‐structured personal interviews, was carried out to develop an understanding of the forecasting and planning processes followed by the wineries. Results were varied, at times confirming existing literature on forecasting and at times contradicting it. The results of this study suggest that wineries use more sophisticated short and long term forecasting methods. In addition, viticulturists become more involved in the forecasting process.

Details

International Journal of Wine Marketing, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0954-7541

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