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1 – 10 of over 2000
Book part
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Emre Bulut and Başak Tanyeri-Günsür

The global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2008 had far-reaching consequences for the global economy, triggering widespread economic turmoil. We use the event-study method to…

Abstract

The global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2008 had far-reaching consequences for the global economy, triggering widespread economic turmoil. We use the event-study method to investigate whether investors priced the effect of significant events before the Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy in European and Asia-Pacific banks. Abnormal returns on the event days range from −4.32% to 5.03% in Europe and −5.13% to 6.57% in Asia-Pacific countries. When Lehman Brothers went bankrupt on September 15, 2008, abnormal returns averaged the lowest at −4.32% in Europe and −5.13% in Asia-Pacific countries. The significant abnormal returns show that Lehman Brothers' collapse was a turning point, and investors paid attention to the precrisis events as warning signs of the oncoming crisis.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-865-2

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 17 May 2024

José G. Vargas-Hernández and Omar C. Vargas-González

This chapter aims to critically analyse the implications that the national protectionist policies have on the global supply and value chains and the relocation of production. The…

Abstract

This chapter aims to critically analyse the implications that the national protectionist policies have on the global supply and value chains and the relocation of production. The analysis is based on the assumptions that the global economy is facing the possibility of decoupling of many trade connections, and this trend favours de-globalisation processes that have long been promoted by populism, nationalism and economic protectionism. It is concluded that global supply, production and value chains although being economically efficient are no longer any more secure under national protectionist policies, and therefore, the relocation of production processes is mainly due to the increase in the level of income and wages of the developing countries that are the destination and which reduce the advantages to relocate.

Details

International Trade, Economic Crisis and the Sustainable Development Goals
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-587-3

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Jose Perez-Montiel and Carles Manera

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic…

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Abstract

Purpose

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

Design/methodology/approach

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

Findings

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

Originality/value

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 23 April 2024

Marina Estrada-Cruz, Ignacio Mira-Solves and Jesús Martínez-Mateo

A global crisis like that caused by the COVID-19 pandemic threatens the survival of any business, but especially of nascent entrepreneurs, due to their vulnerable situation. At…

Abstract

Purpose

A global crisis like that caused by the COVID-19 pandemic threatens the survival of any business, but especially of nascent entrepreneurs, due to their vulnerable situation. At this stage of entrepreneurship, information and communication technology capabilities (ICTCs) are critical skills that help entrepreneurs develop their new businesses, fostering economic adaptability to counteract adverse effects. This study advances knowledge of how nascent entrepreneurs react in an environment of global crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

The study analyzes a sample of 331 Spanish nascent entrepreneurs to determine the mediating effect of ICTCs on the relationship between the impact of a global crisis (e.g. COVID-19) and the firm’s strategic response.

Findings

The results suggest that crises influence adaptation and compensation strategies significantly and that ICTCs exert a total mediating effect on this relationship. The results do not, however, establish a clear relationship between the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and disengagement response, but rather a negative relationship, possibly influenced by government attempts to mitigate the pandemic’s economic consequences (economic aid to maintain the workforce, financial support for business model survival).

Originality/value

The COVID-19 crisis revealed ICT as a key technology for continuing business operations. This study analyzes how ICTCs affect nascent entrepreneurs’ strategies in crisis environments. Our analysis is important because these entrepreneurs have invested resources in their new project. We must determine their strategic response to crisis environments: adaptation, compensation or disengagement. The sample itself, collected during the pandemic, provides unique insights into the impact of the crisis on nascent business decisions.

研究目的

像2019冠狀病毒病大流行等的全球危機一旦發生,各工商企業能否繼續生存必會受到威脅和影響。這影響以剛開始發展的創業者為甚,因為他們處於脆弱的處境。在這個創業階段,創業者必須擁有資訊與通訊科技能力,才能發展他們的新業務,他們亦需培養經濟上的適應能力,以能抵銷各種不利的影響。本研究擬就剛開始發展的創業者在全球危機發生時應如何應對進行探討,以增進我們對這課題的知識。

研究方法

本研究分析一個涵蓋331名西班牙新生創業者的樣本,來鑒定資訊與通訊科技能力對全球危機 (如2019冠狀病毒病) 帶來的影響與企業戰略應對之間的關聯所起的中介效應。

研究結果

研究結果似顯示,危機會顯著地影響企業的適應和賠償策略; 研究結果似乎也顯示,資訊與通訊科技能力會對這關聯 (全球危機所帶來的影響與企業戰略應對之間的關聯) 發揮極大的中介效應。但研究結果並沒有就2019冠狀病毒病危機的影響與脫離反應、建立明確的關聯。反之,研究結果似顯示兩者有一個負相關的關係,這可能是因為政府施行應對方法,以減輕大流行所帶來的經濟後果所致 (這些應對方法包括用以維持勞動力隊伍的經濟援助、和使商業模式能繼續生存的財政支援) 。

研究的原創性

2019冠狀病毒病危機揭示了資訊與通訊科技是讓商業運作能繼續進行的關鍵技術。本研究分析資訊與通訊科技能力如何於危機發生時影響新生創業者的策略。我們的分析有其重要性,這是因為這些創業者把資源投入他們的新項目; 我們必須鑒定他們對危機所採取的戰略對策: 適應、賠償和脫離。取自大流行期間有關的樣本本身已能就危機如何影響新生創業者的商務決策、提供獨特的啟示。

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 April 2024

Daniel Stavárek and Michal Tvrdoň

Czechia is a small open economy and a member state of the European Union. Several important trends and episodes that have determined economic growth can be identified over the…

Abstract

Czechia is a small open economy and a member state of the European Union. Several important trends and episodes that have determined economic growth can be identified over the last two decades. This chapter deals with some macroeconomic features like macroeconomic and labour market performance within the business cycle, the Czech National Bank (CNB) exchange rate commitment and interest rate policy, increasing indebtedness and budget deficits, foreign trade and the international investment position. We applied publicly available data from Eurostat, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and CNB databases. The data show that the Czech economy was significantly converging to the average economic level of the European Union. We also identified key turning points in business cycles. Macroeconomic data on economic development of the economy indicate an atypical course of the business cycle between 2020 and 2022, which can be evaluated as different from the one that followed the global financial crisis.

Article
Publication date: 20 March 2024

Ray Sastri, Fanglin Li, Hafiz Muhammad Naveed and Arbi Setiyawan

The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted tourism, and the hotel and restaurant industry was the most affected sector, which faced issues related to business uncertainty and…

Abstract

Purpose

The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted tourism, and the hotel and restaurant industry was the most affected sector, which faced issues related to business uncertainty and unemployment during the crisis. The analysis of recovery time and the influence factors is significant to support policymakers in developing an effective response and mitigating the risks associated with the tourism crisis. This study aims to investigate numerous factors affecting the recovery time of the hotel and restaurant sector after the COVID-19 crisis by using survival analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the quarterly value added with the observation time from quarter 1 in 2020 to quarter 1 in 2023 to measure the recovery status. The recovery time refers to the number of quarters needed for the hotel and restaurant sector to get value added equal to or exceed the value added before the crisis. This study applies survival models, including lognormal regression, Weibull regression, and Cox regression, to investigate the effect of numerous factors on the hazard ratio of recovery time of hotels and restaurants after the COVID-19 crisis. This model accommodates all cases, including “recovered” and “not recovered yet” areas.

Findings

The empirical findings represented that the Cox regression model stratified by the area type fit the data well. The priority tourism areas had a longer recovery time than the non-priority areas, but they had a higher probability of recovery from a crisis of the same magnitude. The size of the regional gross domestic product, decentralization funds, multiplier effect, recovery time of transportation, and recovery time of the service sector had a significant impact on the probability of recovery.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature by examining the recovery time of the hotel and restaurant sector across Indonesian provinces after the COVID-19 crisis. Employing survival analysis, this study identifies the pivotal factors affecting the probability of recovery. Moreover, this study stands as a pioneer in investigating the multiplier effect of the regional tourism and its impact on the speed of recovery.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 July 2023

Mohit Kumar

To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia…

Abstract

Purpose

To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Design/methodology/approach

The study utilizes the “dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH)” approach of Gabauer (2020). The volatility of the markets is calculated following the approach of Parkinson (1980). The sample dataset comprises the daily volatility of the stock and exchange markets for 35 months, from November 2019 to September 2022.

Findings

The study confirms the existence of contagion effects among member countries. Volatility spillover between exchange and stock markets is low within the country but substantial across borders. Russian contribution increased significantly during the conflict with Ukraine, and other countries also witnessed a surge in the spillover index during the pandemic and war.

Research limitations/implications

It adds to the body of literature by emphasizing the necessity of comprehending the economies' behavior and interdependence. Offers insightful information to decision-makers who must be more watchful regarding the financial crisis and its regional spillover.

Originality/value

The study is the first to explore the contagion of volatility among the BRICS countries during the two biggest crisis periods of the decade.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 March 2024

Donia Aloui and Abderrazek Ben Maatoug

Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through…

Abstract

Purpose

Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through the bond market. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) on the investor’s behavior in the stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the authors theoretically identify the transmission channels of the QE shocks to the stock market. Then, the authors empirically assess the financial market’s responses to QE shocks in a data-rich environment using a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR).

Findings

The results show that the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy positively affects the stock market. A QE shock leads to an increase in stock prices and a drop in the realized volatility and the implied risk premium. The authors also suggest that the ECB’s QE is transmitted to the stock market through five main channels: the liquidity, the expectation, the portfolio reallocation, the interest rates and the risk premium channels.

Practical implications

The findings help to better understand the behavior of stock market assets in a data-rich economic context and guide investors and policymakers in the presence of unconventional monetary tools. For instance, decision-makers and investors should consider the short-term effect of the QE interventions and the changing behavior of the financial actors over time. In addition, high stock market returns can increase risk appetite. This can lead investors to underestimate the market risk. Decision-makers and market participants should take into consideration the impact of the large injection of money through the QE, which may raise the risk of a speculative bubble in the financial market.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates a theoretical and empirical analysis to explore QE transmission to the stock market in the European context. Unlike previous studies, the authors use the shadow rate proposed by Wu and Xia (2017) to quantify the effect of the ECB’s QE in a data-rich environment. The authors also include two key risk indicators – the stock market risk premium and the realized volatility – to capture investors’ behavior in the stock market following QE shocks.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 June 2022

Hedi Ben Haddad, Sohale Altamimi, Imed Mezghani and Imed Medhioub

This study seeks to build a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This index serves as a leading indicator of Saudi economic activity and helps to describe economic…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to build a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This index serves as a leading indicator of Saudi economic activity and helps to describe economic fluctuations and forecast economic trends.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts an extension of the Jurado et al. (2015) procedure by combining financial uncertainty factors with their net spillover effects on GDP and inflation to construct an aggregate financial uncertainty index. The authors consider 13 monthly financial variables for Saudi Arabia from January 2010 to June 2021.

Findings

The empirical results show that the constructed financial uncertainty estimates are good leading indicators of economic activity. The robustness analysis suggests that the authors’ proposed financial uncertainty estimators outperform the alternative estimates used by other existing approaches to estimate the financial conditions index.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt at constructing a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This study extends the empirical literature, from which the authors propose a novel conceptual framework for building a financial uncertainty index by combining the approach of Jurado et al. (2015) and the time-varying connectedness network approach proposed by Antonakakis et al. (2020)

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 November 2023

Ahlem Lamine, Ahmed Jeribi and Tarek Fakhfakh

This study analyzes the static and dynamic risk spillover between US/Chinese stock markets, cryptocurrencies and gold using daily data from August 24, 2018, to January 29, 2021…

Abstract

Purpose

This study analyzes the static and dynamic risk spillover between US/Chinese stock markets, cryptocurrencies and gold using daily data from August 24, 2018, to January 29, 2021. This study provides practical policy implications for investors and portfolio managers.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover indices based on the forecast error variance decomposition from vector autoregression framework. This approach allows the authors to examine both return and volatility spillover before and after the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. First, the authors used a static analysis to calculate the return and volatility spillover indices. Second, the authors make a dynamic analysis based on the 30-day moving window spillover index estimation.

Findings

Generally, results show evidence of significant spillovers between markets, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, cryptocurrencies and gold markets are net receivers of risk. This study provides also practical policy implications for investors and portfolio managers. The reached findings suggest that the mix of Bitcoin (or Ethereum), gold and equities could offer diversification opportunities for US and Chinese investors. Gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum can be considered as safe havens or as hedging instruments during the COVID-19 crisis. In contrast, Stablecoins (Tether and TrueUSD) do not offer hedging opportunities for US and Chinese investors.

Originality/value

The paper's empirical contribution lies in examining both return and volatility spillover between the US and Chinese stock market indices, gold and cryptocurrencies before and after the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. This contribution goes a long way in helping investors to identify optimal diversification and hedging strategies during a crisis.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 29 no. 57
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 2000