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Article
Publication date: 1 September 2020

Rexford Abaidoo and Hod Anyigba

This study seeks to examine the extent to which strands of inflationary related conditions (inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty and realized inflation);…

Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to examine the extent to which strands of inflationary related conditions (inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty and realized inflation); macroeconomic uncertainty and the likelihood of recessionary conditions influence performance indicators in the US banking sector over a specified time period.

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopts seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR) advanced by Zellner (1962) in its examination of how specific strands of inflationary conditions, and other adverse macroeconomic conditions influence performance dynamics in the US banking sector.

Findings

Empirical evidence suggest that among various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined, inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have significant constraining impact on key performance indicators in the US banking sector than other conditions examined. Comparatively, this study finds that inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have much more constraining impact on return on equity, than on return on assets in the US banking sector. Results further suggest that among the three bank performance indicators examined, net interest margin is the least vulnerable bank performance indicator to various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in the study.

Practical implications

Apart from the various empirical results noted above, this study's findings are projected to help inform strategic planning decisions among institutions in the banking sector. The various findings could, for instance, inform policies and operational strategies geared toward reducing vulnerability associated with specific performance indicators such as return on equity. This reduction could be achieved by critically examining how the various performance indicators react to individual adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in this study. The process could ultimately help in developing tailored measures/procedures aimed at reducing how susceptible key performance indicators are to the various adverse macroeconomic conditions. This study's findings could also provide the platform for more adaptive policies aimed at minimizing the effects of noted macroeconomic conditions on operational efficiency in the banking sector.

Originality/value

The uniqueness of this study, compared to related ones found in the literature, stems from its treatment of three variant of related strands of macroeconomic condition (different variant of inflationary conditions) in the same framework in its empirical analysis.

目的

本研究旨在探討與通貨膨脹有關的狀況的組成部分(通脹預期 、通脹不確定性及體現了的通脹), 宏觀經濟不確定性及經濟衰退狀況的可能性、在一段特定時間內對美國銀行業的表現指數有何種程度的影響。

研究設計/方法/理念

研究採用塞爾納 (Zellner) (1962) 提出的看似無關迴歸模型 (SUR),去探討通脹狀況的特定組成部分及其它不利的宏觀經濟狀況如何影響美國銀行業內的績效動態。

研究結果

實證證據暗示在被研究的各個不利宏觀經濟狀況中,通脹預期及宏觀經濟不確定性,對美國銀行業內的主要業績指標的約束影響, 與其它被探討的狀況相比,往往會較重大。相對地、本研究結果顯示通脹預期及宏觀經濟不確定性,對美國銀行業資本回報率的約束影響、往往遠多於資產收益率。研究結果進一步顯示,在被探討的三個銀行業績指標中,就本研究所探討的各個不利的宏觀經濟狀況而言,淨息差是脆弱性最小的銀行業績指標。

實務方面的含意

除了上述各實證結果外,本研究結果預期會給銀行業內機構間作戰略規劃的決定時提供資料,譬如,各項研究結果或可在制定旨在減少與特定業績指標如資本回報率相聯繫的脆弱性的政策和經營策略時提供資料。這脆弱性的減少,是透過嚴謹地研究各個業績指標,如何對在本研究中被探討的個別不利宏觀經濟狀況作出反應而達致的。這程序或許最終會幫助建立一個以減少各個不利宏觀經濟狀況對主要業績指標的影響為目的的量身定制措施/程序。本研究的結果,或許亦可為更多旨在減弱眾所周知的宏觀經濟狀況對銀行業運營效率的影響的適應性政策提供平台。

研究原創性/價值

與文獻中可見的相關研究比較,本研究的獨特性源於其實證分析,是涉及在同一個構架內處理宏觀經濟狀況相互有關的組成部分的三個變體 (通脹狀況的不同變體) 。

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. 29 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

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Content available
Article
Publication date: 7 November 2018

Chinedu Francis Egbunike and Chinedu Uchenna Okerekeoti

The purpose of this paper is to explore the interrelationship between macroeconomic factors, firm characteristics and financial performance of quoted manufacturing firms…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the interrelationship between macroeconomic factors, firm characteristics and financial performance of quoted manufacturing firms in Nigeria. Specifically, the study investigates the effect of interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, while the firm characteristics were size, leverage and liquidity. The dependent variable financial performance is measured as return on assets (ROA).

Design/methodology/approach

The study used the ex post facto research design. The population comprised all quoted manufacturing firms on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The sample was restricted to companies in the consumer goods sector, selected using non-probability sampling method. The study used multiple linear regression as the method of validating the hypotheses.

Findings

The study finds no significant effect for interest rate and exchange rate, but a significant effect for inflation rate and GDP growth rate on ROA. Second, the firm characteristics showed that firm size, leverage and liquidity were significant.

Practical implications

The study has implications for regulators and policy makers in formulating policy decisions. In addition, managers may better understand the interplay between macroeconomic factors, firm characteristics and profitability of firms.

Originality/value

Few studies have addressed the interplay of macroeconomic factors and firm characteristics in determining the profitability of manufacturing firms in the country and developing countries in general.

Details

Asian Journal of Accounting Research, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2443-4175

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Article
Publication date: 9 March 2015

Aurélie Sannajust, Mohamed Arouri and Alain Chevalier

The purpose of this paper is to extend the research on private equity by studying the drivers of leveraged buyout (LBO) operating performance in Latin America. The authors…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to extend the research on private equity by studying the drivers of leveraged buyout (LBO) operating performance in Latin America. The authors consider a large set of candidate drivers (financial, governance, macroeconomic and industry variables) and study their effects on performance over short- and long-terms.

Design/methodology/approach

To conduct this study, the authors used Capital IQ as a database as well as a hand-collected data set covering LBO in Latin America from 2000 to 2008.

Findings

The empirical results show that macroeconomic variables have an important impact on LBO value creation. Governance variables show also that LBO transactions reduce information asymmetries between existing and new management teams. Consequently, a concentrated shareholder structure has a better impact on performance than diluted stockholders. Financial variables present significant effects after the delisting.

Research limitations/implications

The characteristics of the debts included in the balance sheets (maturity for example) are not available in the authors' data basis. A test including this information could bring other elements of explanation. The measure of cumulative abnormal returns around going-private announcements and their impacts on shareholder’s value could also be of interest. This last study has been published for the UK (Wright et al., 2006). Further research should introduce other continents and particularly Asia in the analysis but also comparisons between the Brazil–Russia–India–China–South Africa (BRICS) countries.

Originality/value

This study makes five main contributions. First, the authors construct an LBO sample with emerging markets and specially Latin America. It is the first time that an academic article has been realized. Data are very difficult to obtain to do empirical tests. Latin America is a part of emerging markets, which is an interesting study subject due to their attractiveness in terms of growth of private equity funds. Second, to understand clearly how LBOs create value, the authors construct a sample control to highlight the key factors. Criteria of size, sector of activity and Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes were strictly enforced. Third, the authors do not focus on the moment where the transaction is realized like many studies but before and after the delisting. Indeed, they observed, on the one hand, the operating performance between year −1 and year +1 and, on the other hand, the operating performance between year −1 and year +3. Generally, only the market reaction around the acquisition announcement is examined. Post-performance is not considered due to lack of data. Fourth, the authors take into account the macroeconomic effects on performance of LBOs. It is the first examination of the impact of macroeconomic factors on performance of LBOs in Latin America. And fifth, they analyze the impact of going-private decisions on employees.

Details

European Business Review, vol. 27 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0955-534X

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Article
Publication date: 31 December 2007

Rahim Ashkeboussi and Ahmad Tootoonchi

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the success of privatization based on the performance of relevant macroeconomic variables before and after privatization.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the success of privatization based on the performance of relevant macroeconomic variables before and after privatization.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the labor market and economic indicators in Latin America and the Caribbean during 1990‐2002 and 1993‐2004, the researchers investigate whether different stabilization and liberalization strategies and the industry sequencing result in different macroeconomic performance for transition and emerging economies.

Findings

The results of this study revealed that based on the changes in macroeconomic variables, privatization in Latin America and the Caribbean failed to meet its intended goals, and successful privatization plan is indeed related to appropriate economic reform and effective macroeconomic stabilization policies.

Practical implications

This research leads to the conclusion that macroeconomic stabilization, industry sequencing and market liberalization are necessary prerequisites for a fair, equitable and transparent privatization process.

Originality/value

The study provides useful information on privatization, economic reform and effective macroeconomic stabilization policies with an emphasis on Latin America and the Caribbean.

Details

International Journal of Commerce and Management, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1056-9219

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Article
Publication date: 15 August 2008

Anthony Kyereboah‐Coleman and Kwame F. Agyire‐Tettey

The study aims at examining how macroeconomic indicators affect the performance of stock markets by using the Ghana Stock Exchange as a case study.

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims at examining how macroeconomic indicators affect the performance of stock markets by using the Ghana Stock Exchange as a case study.

Design/methodology/approach

Quarterly time series data covering the period 1991‐2005 were used. Cointegration and the error correction model techniques are employed to ascertain both short‐ and long‐run relationships.

Findings

Findings of the study reveal that lending rates from deposit money banks have an adverse effect on stock market performance and particularly serve as major hindrance to business growth in Ghana. Again, while inflation rate is found to have a negative effect on stock market performance, the results indicate that it takes time for this to take effect due to the presence of a lag period; and that investors benefit from exchange‐rate losses as a result of domestic currency depreciation.

Originality/value

The single most important contribution of this study is its emphasis on macroeconomic variables and stock market performance in a small country, since most studies have concentrated on stock markets and economic growth in advanced economies.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 9 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

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Article
Publication date: 14 August 2009

Charles K.D. Adjasi

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on stock‐price volatility in Ghana.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on stock‐price volatility in Ghana.

Design/methodology/approach

The method of analysis is in two stages. The first stage estimates univariate volatility models for each macroeconomic variable; namely consumer price index (proxy for inflation), exchange rate, money supply, interest rates, oil price, gold price, and cocoa price using the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. In the second stage volatility effect of macroeconomic variables on stock prices is estimated using the most recent squared residuals from the mean‐conditional variance of macroeconomic variables as exogenous variables in the conditional variance equation of the stock price.

Findings

The results show that higher volatility in cocoa prices and interest rates increases volatility of the stock prices, whilst higher volatility in gold prices, oil prices, and money supply reduces volatility of stock prices.

Originality/value

This paper departs from previous studies on African markets, by incorporating time‐varying volatility characteristics of stock returns and further examining the effect of conditional volatility of macroeconomic variables on the volatility of stock. It also incorporates the effect of external macroeconomic uncertainties from oil and commodity price shocks.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 10 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

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Article
Publication date: 2 September 2014

Lama Tarek Al-Kayed, Sharifah Raihan Syed Mohd Zain and Jarita Duasa

This paper aims to examine the effect of capital structure on Islamic banks’ (IBs) performance to provide guidance to finance managers for raising capital funds. As…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the effect of capital structure on Islamic banks’ (IBs) performance to provide guidance to finance managers for raising capital funds. As newcomers to the markets, IBs are facing a trade-off. They can either use high capital ratios which increase the soundness and safety of the bank and lower the required return by investors, or depend on deposits and Islamic bonds which are considered cheaper sources of funds due to their tax rebate. An IB’s management must carefully decide the appropriate mix of debt and equity, i.e. capital structure, to maximize the value of the bank.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a sample of 85 IBs covering banking systems in 19 countries, the study uses a two-stage least squares method to examine the performance determinants of IBs to control the reverse causality from performance to capital structure.

Findings

After control of the macroeconomic environment, financial market structure and taxation, results indicate that IBs’ performance (profitability) responds positively to an increase in equity (capital ratio). The result is consistent with the signaling theory which predicts that banks expected to have better performance credibly transmit this information through higher capital. Optimal capital structure results of the IBs found a non-monotonic U-shaped relationship between the capital-asset ratio and profitability, supporting the efficiency risk and franchise value hypotheses.

Research limitations/implications

Due to limitations for market data, the study uses book accounting ratios. Future research where market data are available could use performance measures, such as Tobin’s Q in performance determinants models.

Practical implications

The non-monotonic relationship found between IBs’ return on equity and capital ratios suggests that equity issuances for IBs’ with low capital ratios (lower than the turning point of 37.41 per cent) are expensive and have a negative effect on their profitability. On the other hand, managers of well-capitalized IBs (banks with capital ratios beyond 37.41 per cent) are advised to rely on equity when faced by a decision to raise capital, as the capital ratio starts to affect their profitability positively.

Originality/value

Islamic banking literature has been silent on IBs’ capital structure and its relevance; this study will try to fill in the existent gap.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

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Article
Publication date: 9 October 2009

Magda Kandil

The purpose of this paper is to analyze determinants of institutional quality based on six separate indicators of governance: voice and accountability, political…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze determinants of institutional quality based on six separate indicators of governance: voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption.

Design/methodology/approach

The determinants under consideration include measures of economic freedom by the Cato Institute and the Heritage Foundation, indicators of policy quality, real per capita gross domestic product (GDP), risk rating, and the degree of openness.

Findings

Five measures of institutional quality increase real GDP growth significantly across Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. In contrast, institutional quality has a negative impact on the growth of private credit and private investment. Further, the combined evidence does not suggest that improvement in institutional quality is a major factor in attracting foreign direct investment flows to MENA countries.

Research limitations/implications

The research provides startling evidence that illustrates how institutions have impacted macroeconomic performance and the underlying roots of institutional quality. Addressing shortcomings in institutions should top the policy agenda in an effort to drive the growth process.

Practical implications

Improving institutional quality will distribute the benefits of growth and enhance macroeconomic performance in the MENA region, which is rich in endowed resources. Nonetheless, the region lacks fundamentals of economic management and quality governance to utilize resources in the most efficient and productive fashion in order to maximize the welfare for a growing population that is constantly seeking productive opportunities to secure employment and a higher real standard of living.

Originality/value

The MENA region is understudied and worthy of much more empirical work. Many cross‐country studies of the determinants of growth omit oil‐producing nations. Focusing on this oil‐rich region is an attempt to fill this void. Unlike previous literature on the relationship between institutions and growth, the paper's approach to the issue analyzes micro foundations in the transmission channel between institutions and economic growth.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 3 August 2020

Maria Grazia Fallanca, Antonio Fabio Forgione and Edoardo Otranto

This study aims to propose a non-linear model to describe the effect of macroeconomic shocks on delinquency rates of three kinds of bank loans. Indeed, a wealth of…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to propose a non-linear model to describe the effect of macroeconomic shocks on delinquency rates of three kinds of bank loans. Indeed, a wealth of literature has recognized significant evidence of the linkage between macro conditions and credit vulnerability, perceiving the importance of the high amount of bad loans for economic stagnation and financial vulnerability.

Design/methodology/approach

Generally, this linkage was represented by linear relationships, but the strong dependence of bank loan default on the economic cycle, subject to changes in regime, could suggest non-linear models as more appropriate. Indeed, macroeconomic variables affect the performance of bank’s portfolio loan, but such a relationship is subject to changes disturbing the stability of parameters along the time. This study is an attempt to model three different kinds of bank loan defaults and to forecast them in the case of the USA, detecting non-linear and asymmetric behaviors by the adoption of a Markov-switching (MS) approach.

Findings

Comparing it with the classical linear model, the authors identify evidence for the presence of regimes and asymmetries, changing in correspondence of the recession periods during the span of 1987–2017.

Research limitations/implications

The data are at a quarterly frequency, and more observations and more extended research periods could ameliorate the MS technique.

Practical implications

The good forecasting performance of this model could be applied by authorities to fine-tune their policies and deal with different types of loans and to diversify strategies during the different economic trends. In addition, bank management can refer to the performance of macroeconomic conditions to predict the performance of their bad loans.

Originality/value

The authors show a clear outperformance of the MS model concerning the linear one.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 21 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

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Article
Publication date: 1 January 2018

Syed Tehseen Jawaid and Abdul Waheed

The purpose of the study is to develop a macroeconometric model for evaluation of trade policies and forecasting of trade performance of Pakistan with different regions or…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to develop a macroeconometric model for evaluation of trade policies and forecasting of trade performance of Pakistan with different regions or group of countries.

Design/methodology/approach

These regions or group of countries are Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the rest of the world. A macroeconometric model containing 15 behavioral equations and eight identities.

Findings

Cointegration results suggest that there exist long-run relationships among variables of all behavioral equations. Additionally, results of different policy shocks based on unit value of export (export price), unit value of import (import price), exchange rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate and foreign exchange reserve suggest that the model is useful for economic planning to sustain growth performance of Pakistan.

Originality/value

In this study, the authors develop for the first time ever a macroeconometric model for the evaluation and forecasting of regional trade policy and performance for Pakistan.

Details

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, vol. 11 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-4408

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