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Structural models' inflation forecasts are often inferior to those of naïve devices. This chapter theoretically and empirically assesses this for UK annual and quarterly inflation, using the theoretical framework in Clements and Hendry (1998, 1999). Forecasts from equilibrium-correction mechanisms, built by automatic model selection, are compared to various robust devices. Forecast-error taxonomies for aggregated and time-disaggregated information reveal that the impacts of structural breaks are identical between these, helping to interpret the empirical findings. Forecast failures in structural models are driven by their deterministic terms, confirming location shifts as a pernicious cause thereof, and explaining the success of robust devices.

This article aims to report on the development and validation of a bribery measurement index for the business sector, which, based on institutional theory, seeks to overcome the limitations of traditional measurements, recognizing the dynamics that originate the phenomenon and identifying process components.

To construct the index, correlational and principal component analysis techniques were used, as well as rigorous statistical tests, validating the instrument in a sample of 2,963 companies in Latin America, including Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico and Peru.

The result was an instrument composed of two dimensions: (1) anti-bribery game rules, composed of regulations knowledge and anti-bribery efforts, and (2) bribery as a perceived habit, allowing an objective representation of reality due to its internal consistency, concurrent and discriminant validity.

This instrument is one of the few that focuses on measuring bribery in the business sector in terms of corrupt practices, applicable for both public and private institutions to promote game rules against bribery. Additionally, the proposed theoretical model can be used to measure other phenomena with similar characteristics.

This article empirically highlights different variables that make bribery possible. The results can be helpful in the design of strategies to prevent this type of behavior. It also highlights the importance of designing mechanisms to record information related to bribery and the different expressions of corruption in order to explain its different nuances.

Este artículo informa sobre el desarrollo y validación de un índice de medición de soborno para el sector empresarial, que, basado en la teoría institucional, busca superar las limitaciones de las mediciones tradicionales, reconociendo las dinámicas que originan el fenómeno e identificando los componentes del proceso.

Para la construcción del índice se utilizaron técnicas de análisis correlacional y de componentes principales, así como rigurosas pruebas estadísticas, validando el instrumento en una muestra de 2.963 empresas de América Latina, entre ellas Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, México y Perú.

El resultado fue un instrumento compuesto por dos dimensiones: (1) reglas de juego antisoborno, compuestas por conocimiento normativo y esfuerzo antisoborno (2) soborno como hábito percibido, permitiendo una representación objetiva de la realidad debido a su consistencia interna, validez concurrente y discriminante.

Este artículo pone en evidencia empírica diferentes variables que hacen posible el soborno. Los resultados pueden ser útiles en el diseño de estrategias para prevenir este tipo comportamiento, también destaca la importancia de diseñar mecanismos para registrar la información relacionada con la lucha contra el soborno.

Este instrumento es uno de los pocos que se enfoca en medir el soborno en el sector empresarial en términos de prácticas de corrupción, útil para instituciones tanto públicas como privadas para promover mejores reglas de juego en contra del soborno. Adicionalmente el modelo teórico propuesto puede ser utilizado para medir otros fenómenos con características similares.

Innovation is necessary to ensure consistent economic growth and to meet the global competition. In view of this, the purpose of this study to check the effect of governance quality as a tool for fostering innovation performance.

The empirical analysis was arranged on 20 year’s (2000–2019) data from South Asian economies. Subject to the existence of cointegration, the authors use the fully modified ordinary least square model for regression analysis and check the robustness through robust least square model.

The empirical findings infer that all dimensions of governance have a positive significant impact on both research and development expenditures and trademark applications jointly known as innovation performance. In addition, the empirical analysis discloses the positive effect of all control variables, including FDI inflow, banking sector development, economic growth, ease of doing business index and government subsidies on innovation activities. The analysis confirms the “grease the wheel” role of governance in fostering innovation.

It is apparently recommended to strengthen the exercise of better governance to harvest better innovation scores.

This study advocates the positive role of individual dimensions of governance recommended by existing literature and complements the literature by jointly exploring the impact of all governance dimensions on overall innovation performance.

This paper aims to examine various indicators related to corruption and determine their impact on financial globalization in emerging countries. It will consider other factors that may impact financial globalization and focus on how corruption within political, executive and public sector institutions can affect this process.

This paper uses a generalized method of moments (GMM) for a data sample of emerging countries covering 2000–2020. Corruption measurements are derived from the varieties of democracy data sets and Transparency International. It also includes data on foreign direct investment, portfolio flows, foreign exchange and international debt as separate indicators of financial globalization. These measures provide more detailed information on the types of financial transactions occurring across countries.

The results reveal that foreign investors may be less likely to enter certain sectors of the economy due to concerns about unethical practices and difficulties navigating the regulatory landscape in countries with high levels of corruption. This can lead to underdevelopment in sectors that are attractive to foreign investment and a reliance on a narrow range of sectors.

This paper offers valuable insights by integrating corruption and financial globalization indicators, using the GMM for robust analysis. It highlights how corruption influences foreign investment decisions, potentially leading to sectoral underdevelopment and overreliance in emerging countries.

This article aims to explore, characterize and discuss the notion of the National Policy Councils (NPCs) as public organizations for governance in Chilean public management.

A subset of active NPCs of the Chilean public management was identified, characterized and analyzed following previously used schemes.

The results showcase heterogeneity in the design of NPCs, with differences among several key features. Proposed explanations for this heterogeneity are an evolutionary approach and the fuzziness of the concept. These notions are relevant outcomes for the academic discussion and the practical implementation of NPCs.

The novelty of this research is based on assessing NPCs of different policy domains in an intra-country analysis by comparing their main features and configuration to determine if NPCs could be understood and treated as a unique type of public organization.

Este artículo tiene como objetivo explorar, caracterizar y discutir la noción de los Consejos Nacionales de Política (CNPs) como organizaciones públicas para la gobernanza en la gestión pública chilena.

Se identificó un subconjunto de CNP activos de la gestión pública chilena, que fueron caracterizados y analizados siguiendo esquemas utilizados previamente.

Los resultados muestran heterogeneidad en el diseño de los CNP con diferencias entre varias características clave. Se proponen explicaciones para esta heterogeneidad basadas en un enfoque evolutivo y la vaguedad del concepto. Estas nociones son resultados relevantes para la discusión académica y la implementación práctica de los CNP.

La novedad de esta investigación se basa en evaluar los CNP de diferentes dominios de política en un análisis intra-país, comparando sus características principales y configuración para determinar si los CNP podrían ser comprendidos y tratados como un tipo único de organización pública.

There is a long-lasting debate on the relationship between democracy and economic growth, though it remained inconclusive. On the other hand, corruption is one of the greatest challenges of the contemporary world that lessens the efficiency of a good government, distorts public policy, leads to the misallocation of resources, harms the private sector and particularly hurts the poor. Moreover, the corruption–growth relationship has been shown to be contingent upon the political regime. This chapter has chosen a set of emerging market economies (EMEs), which consists of democratic as well as authoritarian countries, to throw light on democracy–growth relationship through the channel of corruption using a system generalized method of moments estimation of a panel of 27 countries for a period of 2006–2018. Results show that democracy is growth-enhancing but corruption dampens its positive impact to some extent. However, for authoritarian countries corruption can enhance growth.

This paper applies the logic of economic calculation to the actions of autocrats. We model autocrats as stationary bandits who use profit-and-loss calculations to select institutions that maximize their extraction rents. We find in many cases autocrats achieve rent maximization through creating and protecting private property rights. This in turn yields high levels of production, with expropriation kept low enough to incentivize continued high production. Importantly, while this leads to increasing quantities of available goods and services over time, it does not lead to true development; that is, the coordination of consumer demand with producer supply through directing resources to their highest-valued uses. We apply our model to the authoritarian governments of Singapore and the United Arab Emirates, showing how they function as quasi-corporate governance organizations in the business of maximizing appropriable rents.

Using original mass public surveys in nine East European, European Union (EU) member countries (2007), I develop a micro-level approach linking individuals’ perceptions of inequality and corruption. Merging an instrumental variables approach with an emerging body of comparative scholarship, I demonstrate that individuals’ perceptions of inequality can be seen to contribute to their perceptions of corruption based on individuals’ normative concerns of the failure of democratic institutions to address issues related to inequality. Thus, for these countries, this region, the EU, as well as other new democracies, we can better understand these potential threats to the development of stable, sustainable democracy.

One of the noteworthy developments in the world economy is the cryptocurrency in general and the bitcoin in particular. Although several types of cryptocurrency are in operation in the current digital economy, the most prevalent is the bitcoin, which was launched formally in 2009 by an individual or group known under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. The value of bitcoin has increased to such an extend that it reached 19.7 billion US dollars by January 2, 2018 (Statista, 2018). As the bitcoin price touches a new high day by day, various terrorist organizations are using this cryptocurrency to anonymously finance their grotesque terrorist activities around the world by bypassing the surveillance mechanism of the banking system of the respective countries. Against this backdrop, this chapter aims to understand the mechanism of cryptocurrencies in general and the bitcoin in particular. Finally, it also endeavors to identify the trend of the bitcoin economy and its impact on nefarious activities in general and terrorism financing in particular. It has been revealed from the study that cryptocurrency economy has become so popular across the world that it has created an alternative virtual economy devoid of regulations from a specific country or a group of countries. By using vector error correction model (VECM), it had been observed that there exists a statistically significant long-run association between terrorist incidences and bitcoin transaction/circulation in the panel of 12 countries for 2010–2016. However, there is a huge concern over its way of operation and its unholy nexus with terrorism financing.

The objective of this chapter is to explain how an innovation-driven economic development model can help to mitigate corruption and facilitate competitiveness in Nigeria.

With the use of descriptive narratives, Nigeria was examined in comparison with other countries such as South Korea. The chapter argues that Nigeria has not experienced development as much as South Korea because of her primary dependence on crude oil for economic sustenance.

Evidence from the statistics showed that innovation-driven economies are more competitive and less corrupt compared to natural resource-driven economies such as Nigeria. Nigeria has performed poorly in terms of competitiveness, transparency, and governance owing to her dependence on natural resources as a major means for economic sustenance.

Helps to explain why an innovation-driven economic development model is the solution to mitigating corruption and facilitating competitiveness in Nigeria.