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This study investigates the effect of business cycles on school enrollment in Turkey. During recessions, school enrollment might increase as opportunity cost of schooling declines, yet it might also decrease because of reduced income households have for education. Which effect dominates depends on the context. We empirically explore this in a context displaying canonical features of developing countries.

Using the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey data for a period covering the Great Recession, we estimate the effect of unemployment rate separately for enrollments in general and vocational high schools and in undergraduate programs. To understand the cyclicality, we use a probit model with the regional and time variations in unemployment rates. We also build a simple theoretical model of work-schooling choice to interpret the findings.

We find that the likelihood of enrolling in general high schools and undergraduate programs declines with higher adult unemployment rates, but the likelihood of enrollment in vocational high schools increases. Confronting these empirical findings with the theoretical model suggests that the major factor in enrollment cyclicality in Turkey is how parental resources allocated to education change during recessions by schooling type.

Our finding of pro-cyclical enrollment in academically oriented programs is in contrast with counter-cyclicality documented for similar programs in developed countries, which highlights the importance of income related factors in developing-country contexts. Our heterogeneous findings for general and vocational high schools are also novel.

Global climate change threatens world food security. This research raises the issues of priority agricultural development, increasing agricultural production, and expanding the insurance coverage of the industry. The authors propose to implement insurance activities further to prevent the effects of climate change and economic support in the emphasizеd advancеment of food production in agriculture. The research relies on direct comparative analysis, statistical and economic analysis, and monographic observational data. To conduct deep research, the authors apply analysis and synthesis. The authors also use the questionnaire methods across the country and organization, monographic research, and other methods. Furthermore, the authors used international normative documents, research of scientists in scientific periodicals, and data from official websites. The authors conclude that to protect agricultural insurance and ensure the continuous development of agriculture, it is advisable to transition from administrative methods to the following recommendations for insurance against various financial and natural losses that may arise in agriculture due to the vagaries of nature. It is also recommended to introduce a mechanism of state subsidies to compensate for the costs and improve the efficiency of insurance agents in the insurance activities of agricultural enterprises.

In this research, we explore the dynamics among measures of income inequality in the USA, male and female unemployment rates, and growth in government transfer using time series data.

This research adopts a macro-econometric approach to estimate a structural VAR model using time series data.

Our structural impulse responses found that growth in government transfer increases unemployment rates for both males and females. Female income inequality declines with increased government transfer. When the female income ratio rises, we observe that government transfer outlays fall over the forecast horizon. Variance decomposition finds that growth in government transfers is impacted by the male unemployment rate relatively more than the female unemployment rate. This research, therefore, suggests gender-specific government transfers to reduce income inequality. This, in effect, may reduce government transfer outlays over time.

This research, therefore, suggests gender-specific government transfers to reduce income inequality. This, in effect, may reduce government transfer outlays over time.

This research investigates the dynamics among income inequality, government transfer, and unemployment rates. There is a dearth of research articles that adopt a macro-econometric in this area.

This study assesses the probability of an OECD member country exhibiting high persistence in unemployment duration, considering income inequality, productivity, accumulation of human capital and labor income share in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between the years 2013–2019.

To achieve the purpose of the study, a probabilistic analysis with panel data is employed, focusing on 20 OECD countries segmented into two groups: those with high persistence and low persistence in unemployment duration. Probit and Logit models are estimated, marginal changes are analyzed and the models are evaluated in terms of their classification accuracy. Finally, trends in probabilities over time are examined.

This paper exhibits that countries with higher human capital index, greater labor income share in GDP, and more relevant productivity for well-being reduce their probabilities of experiencing high persistence in unemployment duration. It is observed that Mexico (MEX), Greece (GRC), Italy (ITA), and Turkey (TUR) have elevated probabilities of experiencing high persistence in unemployment duration in the future, while Costa Rica (CRI), Estonia (EST), Slovakia (SVK), Czech Republic (CZE), Lithuania (LTU), Poland (POL), and Israel (ISR) show a marked downward trend in these probabilities. Lastly, countries like the United Kingdom (GBR), Denmark (DNK), Sweden (SWE), Norway (NOR), Netherlands (NLD), Germany (DEU), United States (USA), and Canada (CAN) present minimal risk of experiencing high persistence in unemployment duration in the future.

The measurement of the relationship between development outcomes and persistence in unemployment duration has been scarce. Generally, the literature has focused on the analysis of development and unemployment without delving into the duration of unemployment, let alone persistence in duration.

This paper provides a solid foundation for the formulation of policies aimed at promoting sustainable employment and inclusive economic growth.

Based on the findings of the study, two key development policies are proposed. Firstly, the implementation of investment programs in Human Capital to increase productivity is recommended. Resources should be directed towards initiatives that improve the necessary skills and competencies in the labor markets of OECD countries, especially in strategic economic sectors with higher production linkages. Additionally, incentivizing the application of active labor policies is proposed. This entails prioritizing policies aimed at increasing the labor income share in GDP through progressive fiscal reforms that strengthen social safety nets and ensure fair labor standards. Implementing employment programs targeted at vulnerable groups, such as long-term unemployed individuals, youth, female heads of households and marginalized communities, is also recommended to eliminate structural barriers to labor market participation and reduce disparities in unemployment persistence. Adopting these policies can help mitigate the risk of high unemployment duration persistence and foster sustainable and inclusive long-term economic growth.

This is the first study to analyze the probabilities of both developing and developed countries experiencing high persistence in unemployment duration. It specifically evaluates these probabilities over a period of time and also estimates potential outcomes if real investments were made to enhance their human capital, productivity and employability.

The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate whether social contacts can mediate the way in which current unemployment impacts future unemployment.

We use 2006–2017 data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey and a dynamic random-effects model to describe the evolution of individual unemployment status over time.

Once controlled for the local context where individuals live and create friendships, we find that above-average social contacts reduce unemployment persistence. However, social contacts seem to be slightly less effective in deprived neighborhoods. These findings are consistent with the idea that individuals obtain information about job opportunities through a network of social contacts, and unemployment may lead to a decay of social capital, making it more difficult to find employment in future periods. Our results also show that neighborhood deprivation increases individual unemployment risk, while above-average neighborhood cohesion reduces the probability of unemployment in deprived neighborhoods.

Although many studies have been published on unemployment persistence, to the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study quantifying the impact of social contacts on unemployment persistence. The study also offers fresh empirical evidence on the impact of neighborhood characteristics on unemployment risk.

Depression imposes substantial individual and societal economic costs, including lower productivity and higher healthcare use. However, while the relationship between employment and mental health has been explored, less is known about the potentially countervailing effects of different types of economic inactivity on depression among older individuals. The authors employ a series of models, including fixed effects panel data models and matching on rich data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) to investigate whether different types of inactivity might have heterogenous effects on depression. The authors find that whereas transitions to involuntary inactivity (unemployment) do not appear to have a perceivable effect on depression, transitions to voluntary inactivity (retirement) seem to decrease it.

The aim of this study is to analyze which socioeconomic factors (economic, demographic, and political) most commonly affect the social expenditure of the European Union (EU) and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

A panel data fixed-effects model is employed for 34 OECD and 23 EU countries between 2000 and 2020.

Results indicate that, in all country groups, economic factors have the most significant influence on social expenditures, with income being the primary determinant, particularly in EU countries. The negative impacts of unemployment and inflation underscore the importance of counter-cyclical measures adopted by countries to maintain stability in their social expenditures. The most influential demographic factor is found as the old-age-dependency ratio. While the rule of law affects social expenditure positively, government effectiveness and female labor force participation affect it negatively. The positive effect of Konjunkturforschungsstelle (KOF) indexes shows the globalization effect, which can be attributable to the compensation hypothesis.

Governments enforce inclusive and sustainable policies to boost economic activities and GDP, thus combating inflation and unemployment and regulating the labor market and socioeconomic problems about aging populations and women’s economic participation to control social expenditures. The rule of law and institutional quality will also boost economic growth.

This study focuses on the effects of social expenditures in a broader view within the framework of the three main factors (economic, demographic, political) and attempts to determine the key factors that account for the differences in social expenditure between the OECD and EU countries.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-05-2023-0384

The main aim of this paper is to establish a reasonable and scientific evaluation index system to assess the high quality and full employment (HQaFE).

This paper uses a novel Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) multi-criteria framework to evaluate the quality and quantity of employment, wherein the integrated weights of attributes are determined by the combined the Criteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC) and entropy approaches.

Firstly, the gap in the Yangtze River Delta in employment quality is narrowing year by year; secondly, employment skills as well as employment supply and demand are the primary indicators that determine the HQaFE; finally, the evaluation scores are clearly hierarchical, in the order of Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui.

A scientific and reasonable evaluation index system is constructed. A novel CRITIC-entropy-TOPSIS evaluation is proposed to make the results more objective. Some policy recommendations that can promote the achievement of HQaFE are proposed.

Introduction: The notion of job losses during energy transition phases and their influences on fossil fuel economies have been debated in various aspects. Meanwhile, unemployment and poverty have been critical economic challenges for many developing countries, even the resource-rich countries in the Middle East. Concurrently, no country so far is poverty-free and has not entirely fulfilled Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Nos. 1 and 8, as many resource-rich countries account for the significant global poverty and unemployment, such as Nigeria, Iraq, Yemen, and Venezuela.

Purpose: The issue of green transition has created new fears for the job market in the fossil fuel economies, where the lives of many people could be mainly affected. This study investigates the macroeconomic challenges of green transition and the macroeconomic consequences that fossil fuel economies will deal with.

Methodology: This study follows content analysis and a desk-search review of job loss during the green transition in the context of fossil fuel economies. In addition, the descriptive analysis is just a clear understanding of the fundamental review of the topic that will lead to another cross-country analysis study based on in-depth knowledge and analysing data.

Findings: The European Green Deal (EGD) will have profound economic, social, and political implications for fossil fuel-dependent economies for various reasons. First, fossil fuel economies are less diversified; the economy depends on a single commodity; the systems must be developed and people must prepare for a quick economic transition.

As a response to challenges that globalization poses, governments often utilize an expansionary fiscal policy, a mix of increased compensation spending and capital tax cuts. To account for these policy measures that are consistent with neither the compensation nor the efficiency hypothesis, this study examines government fractionalization as the key conditional factor.

We test our hypothesis with a country-year data covering 24 OECD countries from 1980 to 2011. To examine how a single country juggles compensation spending and capital taxation policies jointly, we employ a research strategy that classifies governments into four categories based on their implementation of the two policies and examine the link between imports and fiscal policy choices conditioned on government fractionalization.

This study shows that highly fractionalized governments are more likely to implement an expansionary fiscal policy than marginally fractionalized governments as a policy response to economic globalization and import shock.

Our findings imply that fractionalized governments are likely to face budget deficits and debt crises, as the expansionary fiscal policy persists over time.

By examining government fractionalization as one of the critical factors that constrain the fiscal policy choice, this study enhances our understanding of the relationship between economic globalization and compensation or efficiency policies. The arguments and findings in this study explain why governments utilize the seeming incompatible policy preferences over increased compensation spending and reduced capital tax burdens as a response to globalization, potentially subsuming both hypotheses.