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This study aims to measure the relationship between demand and exchange rate shocks in the tourism industry.

A panel data set is constructed covering the period between 1995 and 2017, and the data set includes the top 26 countries that host 10 million tourists and above in the world as of 2017. The standard errors of the series are used as an indicator of shocks. First, the cross-sectional dependency, stationarity and the homogeneity of the series are examined; second, a panel cointegration analysis is implemented; third, long-term panel cointegration coefficients are analyzed with Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) approach; and, finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) Granger non-causality test is used to detect the causality.

The preliminary analyses show that the variables are cross-sectional dependent and heterogeneous and are stationary in their first difference; hence, the effects of the shocks are temporary. On the other hand, as a result of the panel cointegration analysis, it is found that both series are cointegrated over the long-term. However, the long-term coefficients estimated with the DCCE approach are found not to be statistically significant. Finally, as a result of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) Granger non-causality test, it is concluded that there is a causality running from exchange rate shocks to demand shocks.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the cointegration between the tourism demand shocks and exchange rates shocks has not been investigated before, and therefore, this study is considered to be a pioneering study that will contribute to the literature.

One of the main factors that can impact the cost of holidays to a particular destination is the exchange rate; exchange rate fluctuations impact the overall price of the holiday and should be expected to effect tourism demand. This paper aims to scrutinize the volatility of the real effective exchange rate between the source market relative to the holiday destination and tourism demand volatility, where the influence of disaggregated data is noted.

The study uses multivariate conditional volatility regressions to simulate the time-varying conditional variances of international visitor demand and exchange rates for the relatively mature Caribbean tourist destination of Barbados. Data on the country’s main source markets, the UK, the USA and Canada is used, where the decision to disaggregate the analysis by market allows the authors to contribute to policymaking, particularly the future of tourism marketing.

The volatility models used in the paper suggests that shocks to total arrivals, as well as the USA and UK markets tend to die out relatively quickly. Asymmetric effects were observed for total arrivals, mainly due to the combination of the different source markets and potential evidence of Butler’s (1980) concept of a tourist area’s cycle of growth. The results also highlight the significance of using disaggregated tourism demand models to simulate volatility, as aggregated models do not adequately capture source market specific shocks, due to the potential model misspecification. Exchange rate volatility is postulated to have resulted in the greater utilization of packaged tours in some markets, while the effects of the market’s online presence moderates the impact of exchange rate volatility on tourist arrivals. Markets should also explore the potential of attracting higher numbers of older tourist, as this group may have higher disposable incomes, thereby mitigating the influence of exchange rate volatility.

Some of the explanatory variables were not available on a high enough frequency and proxies had to be used. However, the approach used was consistent with other papers in the literature.

The results from the paper suggest that the effects of exchange rate volatility in key source markets were offset by non-price factors in some markets and the existence of the exchange rate peg in others. In particular, the online presence of the destination was one of those non-price factors highlighted as being important.

In most theoretical models of tourism demand, disaggregation is not normally considered a significant aspect of the model. This paper contributes to the literature by investigating the impact real effective exchange rate volatility has on tourism demand at a disaggregated source country level. The approach highlights the importance of modeling tourism demand at a disaggregated level and provides important perspective from a mature small island destination.

该研究采用多元条件波动回归来拟合相对成熟的加勒比海旅游目的地巴巴多斯的国际游客需求和汇率的时变条件方差。本研究逐一分析了该国主要客源市场（英国, 美国和加拿大）的数据, 从而为政策制定, 尤其是对今后的旅游营销做出贡献。

汇率是影响到特定目的地度假成本的主要因素之一。汇率波动会影响整体的度假成本, 并会影响旅游需求。基于按客源地分类的数据, 本文详细研究了客源市场相对于度假目的地的实际有效汇率的波动性以及旅游需求的波动性。

本文使用的波动模型表明, 汇率冲击对入境总人数以及美国和英国市场影响短暂。冲击对总入境人数产生的不对称效应, 主要是由于不同的客源市场加总和巴特勒（1980）关于旅游区增长周期概念所致。本文结论还凸显了使用基于客源地数据的旅游需求模型来模拟波动性的重要性, 因为加总数据不能充分捕获具体客源地市场的冲击从而产生模型设定作物。汇率波动会引起某些市场中团体游客的增加, 而目的地的线上热度影响会调节汇率波动对游客人数的影响。市场还应探索吸引更多老年游客的潜力, 因为该群体的可支配收入可能更高, 从而减轻了汇率波动的影响。

由于一些解释变量的数据频率不够高, 本文不得不使用一些替代指标。所使用的方法与文献中的其他论文一致。

该论文的结果表明, 在某些客源地市场, 汇率波动的影响会被某非价格因素所抵消, 而在另一些主要客源地市场, 固定汇率的存在刚好规避了汇率波动产生的影响。目的地的线上热度是重要的非价格因素之一。

在大多数旅游需求理论模型中, 按客源地拆分的数据通常不被视为模型的重要方面。本文的理论贡献则是通过研究实际有效汇率波动对不同客源国的旅游需求的影响强调了旅游需求建模中使用基于客源地数据的重要性, 并以一个成熟的小岛目的地为角度进行了阐述。

Uno de los principales factores que pueden afectar al costo de las vacaciones a un destino en particular es el tipo de cambio; Las fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio afectan a el precio general de las vacaciones y es normal que afecten a la demanda turística. Este documento analiza la volatilidad del tipo de cambio efectivo real entre el mercado de origen en relación con el destino de vacaciones y la volatilidad de la demanda turística, donde se observa la influencia de los datos desagregados.

El estudio emplea regresiones de volatilidad condicional multivariadas para simular las variaciones condicionales variables en el tiempo de la demanda de visitantes internacionales y los tipos de cambio para el destino turístico caribeño relativamente maduro de Barbados. Se emplean datos sobre los principales mercados de origen del país, el Reino Unido, los Estados Unidos de América y Canadá, donde la decisión de desagrerar el análisis por mercado permite a los autores contribuir a la formulación de políticas, en particular al futuro del marketing turístico.

Los modelos de volatilidad utilizados en el documento sugieren que los shocks en las llegadas totales, así como en los mercados de los Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido, tienden a desaparecer con relativa rapidez. Se observaron efectos asimétricos para las llegadas totales, principalmente debido a la combinación de los diferentes mercados de origen y la evidencia potencial del concepto de Butler (1980) del ciclo de crecimiento de un área turística. Los resultados también resaltan la importancia de utilizar modelos desagregados de demanda turística para simular la volatilidad, ya que los modelos agregados no capturan adecuadamente los shocks específicos del mercado de origen, debido a la posible especificación errónea del modelo. Se postula que la volatilidad del tipo de cambio influye en una mayor utilización de los paquetes turísticos en algunos mercados, mientras que los efectos de la presencia del mercado en linea (online) moderan el impacto de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio en las llegadas de turistas. Los mercados también deberían explorar el potencial de atraer un mayor número de turistas mayores, ya que este grupo puede tener mayores ingresos disponibles, mitigando así la influencia de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio.

Algunas de las variables explicativas no estaban disponibles en una frecuencia alta y se tuvieron que utilizar proxies. Sin embargo, el enfoque utilizado fue consistente con otros artículos en la literatura.

Los resultados del documento sugieren que los efectos de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio en los mercados de origen clave fueron compensados por factores no relacionados con los precios en algunos mercados y la existencia de la vinculación del tipo de cambio en otros. En particular, la presencia en línea (online) del destino fue uno de esos factores no relacionados con el precio destacados como importantes.

En la mayoría de los modelos teóricos de la demanda turística, la desagregación normalmente no se considera un aspecto significativo del modelo. Este documento contribuye a la literatura al investigar el impacto que la volatilidad efectiva del tipo de cambio real tiene sobre la demanda turística a nivel de país de origen desagregado. El enfoque resalta la importancia de modelar la demanda turística a un nivel desagregado y proporciona una perspectiva importante desde un destino insular pequeño y maduro.

This study investigates if the causal relationships between the exchange rates and selected inbound markets’ tourism demand are temporary or permanent, and compares market reactions in Türkiye.

Tourism demand is examined with a regional approach, focusing on the geographical markets, namely Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members and Asian countries, as the top inbound tourism markets, in addition to the total number of inbound tourists to Türkiye. Granger, frequency-domain causality, asymmetric Toda–Yamamoto, and asymmetric frequency-domain causality tests were employed to investigate and compare markets on exchange rate–tourism demand relationship for 2008M01-2020M02.

The results indicate that exchange rates affect European tourism demand both in the short and long run. The meaning of this Frequency Domain Causality (FDC) analysis finding shows that the exchange rate has both permanent and temporary effects on European tourists. The relationships are statistically insignificant for CIS members and Asian countries. The exchange rates also permanently affect total inbound tourism demand, but the independent variable has no short-run (temporary) effects on total demand. Asymmetric causality tests confirmed a permanent causality relationship from the positive and negative components of exchange rates to the positive and negative components of European and total tourism demand.

The Granger causality test provides information on the presence of a causal relation, while the FDC test, an extended version of Granger causality, enlightens the short- (temporary) and long-run (permanent) relationships and allows for analyzing the duration of the impact. In addition, asymmetric causality relationships are also investigated in the study. Besides, this study is the first in the literature to examine the relationship between tourism demand and the exchange rate regionally (continentally) for Türkiye.

This paper aims to investigate the economic impacts of the current coronavirus disease, which is globally known as (COVID-19) pandemic, on small businesses in the tourism and hospitality industry, including food and beverages (F&B) industries in Malaysia during and after the enforcement of the Movement Control Order (MCO) and conditional (CMCO) with the emergence of new business models.

In this paper, the implemented methodology involved a secondary qualitative research design based mainly on the existing literature, the World Health Organisation (WHO) reports, the government’s documents, in addition to online sources and observations regarding local business experiences.

The findings revealed that implementing effective strategies of recovery, shaping resilience solutions and supporting policies such as the National Recovery Plan, which is backed by the government played a pivotal role in avoiding the turndown of small businesses.

This critical review is submitted as an original research paper, which aims to provide important perspectives regarding the COVID-19 pandemic impacts on the tourism and hospitality industry in Malaysia. This paper serves as a scholarly platform for further in-depth studies on various resilience solutions of small businesses.

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of tourism activities on house prices in Turkey from January 2010 to March 2020.

It is used newly developed cointegration and causality tests based on Fourier approximation. These methods consider smooth structural breaks and do not need to recognize a priori date number and/or form of breaks.

Empirical findings show that international tourism activities have a substantial role in the escalation of house prices in Turkey. Findings also indicate a rise in industrial production enhances house prices while the mortgage lending rate exhibits a negative influence on house prices. Additionally, the evidence from Fourier causality tests reveals the unilateral causal linkage from tourism to house prices. This situation also shows that the tourism sector has a substantial role in stabilizing house prices’ rapid rise as a policy implication.

Although a large number of papers have been analyzing the link between house prices and macroeconomic variables, this study eliminates the lack of papers examining the link between tourism and house prices in Turkey by using the new cointegration and causality methods that consider smooth structural changes.

Assessing the impacts generated by tourism has become an essential element for the industry’s sustainability. The increasing intensity of the impacts and the need to evaluate them from a resident’s perspective calls for new approaches to assist tourism management. This paper aims to advance from the pressure-state-response framework (PSR) to measure the tourism impacts in urban destinations with a holistic model called PSR-ti.

A multiple linear regression method was adopted to apply the PSR-ti model in the city of Madrid, estimating the relationship between the pressure (objective) and state (subjective) variables. Local statistical yearbook data was used to construct the pressure variables. Regarding the state variables, a survey was designed to assess residents’ perceptions of tourism. A total of 652 responses were obtained.

The results obtained from the study of pressure indicators unveil that these indicators can support decision-making processes as an underused management tool. This work represents a step forward in considering the transversality of tourism concerning urban planning, the development of equipment and infrastructures or activities such as commerce and culture for the analysis of the state indicators; the results obtained determine the need to periodically evaluate the perception of residents on the impacts of tourism, given its crucial role in the sustainability of the destination.

The PSR-ti model offers a holistic vision, including objective and subjective indicators in the model, which enhances the appraisal of the impacts of tourism by identifying pressure and state factors as a starting point for possible responses by the decision makers of the tourist destination.

This chapter explores the issues in estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the tourism industry and related activities in Australia. A production-based approach is employed and its rationale is explained. The scope of tourism consists of the economic activities of tourism-characteristic and tourism-connected sectors as defined in the Australian Tourism Satellite Account (TSA). The GHG emissions have been estimated for 2003–04, the latest year for which detailed industry GHG emissions data are available in a form suitable for this type of estimate. Tourism's GHG emissions are compared with other industries in the Australian economy. The policy implications of the results are discussed. It should be possible to adopt a broadly similar method for any destination with a TSA, enabling tourism stakeholders to play an informed role in assessing appropriate climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies for their destination.

This study aims to introduce a dynamic perspective of tourism resilience by analyzing tourism demand in Spain during the 2020 and 2021 summers in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study uses regression and Lasso-type methods to demonstrate a great explanatory capacity of past determinants to explain the tourism demand of the Spanish provinces.

Results show how the previous specialization of the domestic market, the density and the geographic location related to the type of product are behind the bulk of the territorial differences in demand resilience, although in 2021 there has been a process of adaptation to the new context.

This study contributes to the theoretical understanding of tourist behavior and tourism destination management by introducing the concept of resilience dynamics of destinations.

The results are useful, on the one hand, for tourist destinations to understand the different stages of recovery from a shock, and on the other hand, to go in deep in consumer behavior after a shock.

These findings represent a paradigm shift in the static conception of resilience in tourism.

本文通过分析 2020 年和 2021 年夏季 COVID-19 大流行背景下西班牙的旅游需求, 介绍了旅游业复原力的动态视角。

我们使用回归和套索型方法来证明过去的决定因素解释西班牙各省旅游需求的能力。

我们的结果表明, 尽管 2021 年出现了一个适应新环境的过程, 但之前国内市场的专业化、密度以及提供的产品的位置相关类型是造成需求弹性的大部分地域差异的原因。

这些发现代表了旅游业复原力静态概念的范式转变。

本研究通过引入目的地特定弹性动态的概念, 有助于对游客行为和旅游目的地管理的理论理解。

一方面, 研究结果有助于旅游目的地了解从冲击中恢复的不同阶段, 另一方面有助于探索冲击后的消费者行为。

Este artículo presenta una perspectiva dinámica sobre la resiliencia del turismo mediante el análisis de la demanda turística en España durante los veranos de 2020 y 2021 en el contexto de la pandemia de COVID-19.

Utilizamos métodos de regresión y tipo Lasso para demostrar la capacidad de los determinantes pasados para explicar la demanda turística en las provincias españolas.

Nuestros resultados muestran cómo la especialización previa del mercado interno, la densidad y el tipo de producto ofrecido relacionado con la ubicación están detrás del grueso de las diferencias territoriales en la resiliencia de la demanda, aunque en 2021 hubo un proceso de adaptación al nuevo contexto.

Estos hallazgos representan un cambio de paradigma en la concepción estática de la resiliencia en el turismo.

Este estudio contribuye a la comprensión teórica de los comportamientos turísticos y la gestión de los destinos turísticos al introducir el concepto de dinámica de resiliencia específica del destino.

Por un lado, los resultados son útiles para que los destinos turísticos comprendan las diferentes etapas de recuperación de un shock y, por otro lado, para explorar el comportamiento del consumidor después de un shock.

Graphical abstract: The evaluation of the vulnerability of tourism.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal linkages between tourism and economic growth in the USA and determine how they respond to shocks in the system.

The study uses a variety of time series procedures, including the bounds test, Granger causality test, impulse response functions and generalized variance decomposition to analyze the relationship between monthly tourist arrivals (TA) to the USA, real gross domestic product (GDP) and real effective exchange rates.

Results suggest that GDP Granger causes TA in the USA in the long run, indicating the economy-driven tourism growth hypothesis. Additionally, a shock to GDP generates a positive and significant effect on TA that persists in the long-run, while exchange rate shocks only have a significant effect in the first six months.

Different tourism sectors may exert different degrees of influence on the economy. The use of aggregate data on TA in the analysis assumes homogeneity in the industry, thus, only represents the average relationship between tourism and GDP.

This study provides insight that shapes the investment, marketing, sustainability decisions of the public and private sectors aim at increasing tourist flows to drive economic development at the national, state and local levels.

Though several studies have examined the factors influencing the international tourist demand of the USA, this is the first to investigate the causal relationships between tourism, GDP and exchange rates for the USA. It is also the first in the US tourism literature to account for the nature of interactions between the three variables because of innovations in the system.

Many tourism academics have investigated the linkages between tourism, power and space; few have specifically addressed the profound links between tourism and geopolitics. In view of the restrictive assumptions of the linear framework used in the earlier studies, and hidden asymmetries present in the time series data. Against this backdrop, the study tries to find out how tourists may respond differently to favourable and unfavourable shocks in geopolitical risk (GPR).

In order to capture this asymmetric nature of the problem, the study employs the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to evaluate data from 2001Q1 to 2019Q4.

The results show that both positive and negative shock to GPR does not produce results of equal magnitude. A positive shock to GPR has a more detrimental effect on foreign tourist arrivals (FTA) than a beneficial effect a negative shock produces. Besides this, the present study also looks at the effect of other macro-economic variables on FTA. An ascend in the real effective exchange rate (REER) i.e. appreciation of the domestic currency has an unfavourable impact on foreign visitor arrivals, while an increase in world gross domestic product amplify it. The results of the study are robust to alternative measures of the control variable.

The study is significant for policymakers in understanding the short and long-run implications of GPR on FTA in India. The present study can assist policymakers, and destination managers to manage the external and internal risks and minimise the consequences of geopolitical threats on the Indian tourism industry. Consequently, destination managers can utilise the study's findings in calibrating their operations and designing crisis marketing strategies within the geopolitical dynamics of the Indian state.

The study tries to find out how tourists may exhibit distinct reactions to positive and negative disturbances in GPR. The study provides first-hand evidence of how GPR impacts tourism demand. The paper also includes the existing body of literature related to GPR factors and their effect on tourist influx, specifically in the framework of the Indian tourism sector.