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Article
Publication date: 1 July 2006

Jarunee Wonglimpiyarat

The paper aims to deal with the application of foresight in devising strategic technology policies in Thailand.

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Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to deal with the application of foresight in devising strategic technology policies in Thailand.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper examines the foresight exercise carried out by the Thai government, through the National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA) and the APEC Center for Technology Foresight, to examine the potential of the Thai industry and to devise development policies necessary to make the Thai industry successful by the year 2020.

Findings

The results of the foresight process provide a comprehensive overview of the trends of the Thai industry. The study contributes towards the formulation of feasible technological and industrial policies, which would enhance the country's ability to improve the competitive position for tomorrow.

Originality/value

The paper provides an overview of Thailand's comprehensive national foresight program.

Details

Foresight, vol. 8 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 February 2013

Hai‐Chen Lin, Te‐Yi Chan and Cheng‐Hua Ien

To anticipate science and technology (S&T) changes and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization, this paper

Abstract

Purpose

To anticipate science and technology (S&T) changes and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization, this paper aims to address a structured analysis method for future technology trajectories and interactions by mapping and associating the future technology themes in foresight reports with a state‐of‐the art technology classification system. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering, analyzing and visualizing the path for technology development and transformation.

Design/methodology/approach

Delphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan, South Korea and China, and used as sources for future technology themes analysis. A standard mapping taxonomy based on international patent classification system was used to map out the technology concept described in these future technology themes. Technology interactions can be identified through a causal effect analysis during the mapping, and the results among selected countries are cross‐compared and visualized in an aggregated view.

Findings

By this standard mapping taxonomy and structured analysis, future technology themes in strategic foresight reports from countries in focus are systematically mapped and integrated for viewing future technology options and interactions. Similarities and discrepancies for prospecting the future technology trajectory among these countries are also identified.

Research limitations/implications

It would be a significant contribution if this structured analysis could be applied more broadly across different geographic regions or across research areas in foresight reports. This research may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework to make comparison and aggregation of future technology options from different countries/regions. Also, this classification framework can provide a bridge for linking with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality and help in identifying the gaps between the probable future changes in S&T and the current capability.

Originality/value

The integrative method in this research provides a way to combine both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence by utilizing the results deriving from the former as targets for analysis and the analytic practice deriving from the latter to identify the possible competitive or cooperative landscapes in the future.

Article
Publication date: 11 September 2017

Dirk Meissner and Pavel Rudnik

Foresight is frequently used to establish science and technology investment priorities and develop corresponding technology and innovation support programmes. In the light…

Abstract

Purpose

Foresight is frequently used to establish science and technology investment priorities and develop corresponding technology and innovation support programmes. In the light of technology and innovation policy, many individual Foresight studies are undertaken which are separate and little linked with the broader policy scope and ambition. This paper aims to look at an approach towards a consistent Foresight system which is linked closely to science, technology and innovation policy.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper provides an in-depth case study of the Russian Foresight system. The case study is based on desk research and extensive experience of the authors with the system.

Findings

Russia has developed a systematic approach towards organising Foresight which involves and serves multiple stakeholders, including government, ministries, federal and regional agencies, higher education institutions, public research institutes, state-owned companies and private businesses and a large range of associations. Under the auspicious of a dedicated commission, targeted Foresight is undertaken with clearly defined scope for each. The paper finds that the Russian system is unique in its organisational structure and in the integration of Foresight with science, technology and innovation policy measures.

Originality/value

The paper describes all facets of the Russian Foresight system which has not been done before. It also outlines the practical steps to further develop and leverage the system.

Article
Publication date: 1 November 2006

Dominik Schlossstein and Byeongwon Park

This paper seeks to compare recent third generation technology foresight studies in South Korea and mainland China. Both studies were released in 2005.

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to compare recent third generation technology foresight studies in South Korea and mainland China. Both studies were released in 2005.

Design/methodology/approach

Review of the foresight reports released by the Chinese and Korean governments (not available in English), interviews with the project leaders of foresight studies.

Findings

China is relatively behind Korea in the sophistication of its technology foresight methodology. Chinese foresight is second generation (technology focus) whereas Korea's is third generation (society focus). There is no example of policy up‐take of TF results in China so far but there was one very recent example in Korea. There was no private sector participation in using Chinese foresight results; however, there was limited participation in Korea. Foresight methodology should be generally enhanced.

Practical implications

A better link between policy‐making and foresight process is needed. This requires changes at both ends. Governance issues of foresight are addressed towards the end of the paper.

Originality/value

Original, unpublished competitive paper for the ASIALICS 2006 International Conference, Shanghai, April 2006.

Details

Foresight, vol. 8 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 January 2021

Mukaddes Burhan and Serhat Cakir

The purpose of this paper is to provide information about the long-term ex-post impacts of Vision 2023 technology foresight (TF) on the defense sector and to identify…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide information about the long-term ex-post impacts of Vision 2023 technology foresight (TF) on the defense sector and to identify critical success factors (CSFs) of impactful foresight.

Design/methodology/approach

In the present research, a theory-based evaluation approach was adopted with the logic-model of defense TF to identify the intended outcomes, impacts and leading mechanisms. The impact assessment framework developed by Johnston, R. (2012) was adopted to identify (un)intended impacts and possible measures.

Findings

TF had some effects on technological developments, foresight capacity and capability and skills on the sector. The overall impact was assessed at the “some contribution” level with 2.9 out of 5.0 points. It contributed to the development of science technology and innovation (STI) policies and research and development programs, awareness-raising in STI, increase in cooperation between government-university-industry and the development of foresight culture. However, the impacts were more visible in the early years of TF. Additionally, country/sector-specific CSFs were identified. In consequence, it was proposed to measure the maturity of strategic technologies with technology readiness level as a tangible indicator.

Originality/value

According to the authors, this is the first study to assess the long-term ex-post impact of TF in defense. An instrument was developed to assess TF’s contribution to impact measures. The constructs and weights of the instrument differentiated from the adopted framework/schema reflecting the national/sectoral context of TF. Additionally, the study revealed country/sector-specific CSFs and new tangible impact measures.

Article
Publication date: 20 February 2009

Tugrul Daim, Nuri Basoglu, Orhan Dursun, Ozcan Saritas and Pisek Gerdsri

The purpose of this paper is to review and analyse Vision 2023: the Turkish National Technology Foresight project. The paper aims to review the process of conducting the

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to review and analyse Vision 2023: the Turkish National Technology Foresight project. The paper aims to review the process of conducting the project, how it was implemented afterwards and how it compares to other national technology foresight projects

Design/methodology/approach

Through a literature search, a process framework was conducted. The analysis was then conducted in four phases. First a process review, second a comparative review, third content review and finally a post project review. Expert interviews and site visits to Turkish State Planning Organization and TUBITAK (Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey) helped the authors to collect the data on Vision 2023 including how it was established, which areas were involved and what the recommendations were. Finally an expert panel was organized as part of a recent Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology. This included experts involved in the project as well as leading researchers who have been analyzing this project. This panel helped to validate the results.

Findings

Processes used in the Turkish project were similar to the other national projects, however lack of political ownership and change in leadership had been blocking the recommendations coming out of this project from being implemented. A second effort is required to modify the results of the first one and to establish political ownership and leadership. Several other national projects had multiple rounds before solid actions were taken. Industry needs to be a part of the effort as the panelists indicated that several key corporations were missing in the first project.

Practical implications

The project provides comparative details on running national technology foresight projects. This should be useful for those responsible for planning similar projects.

Original/value

The paper reviews the project implementation process and what happened after the implementation providing feedback on what should have been done or should be done in similar foresight projects.

Details

Foresight, vol. 11 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 November 2020

Leandro da Silva Nascimento, Fernanda Maciel Reichert, Raquel Janissek-Muniz and Paulo Antônio Zawislak

This paper aims to discuss the dynamic interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies, resulting in a framework that can help…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to discuss the dynamic interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies, resulting in a framework that can help companies to shape these interactions for achieving positive outcomes.

Design/methodology/approach

This conceptual paper is based on prior literature streams, which were interrelated through an abductive research process. This iterative conceptualization approach led to the formation of testable propositions that advance the understanding on the interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies.

Findings

The framework demonstrates the existence of an actions cycle between strategic foresight and knowledge management through a constructivist perspective, where one can improve the other. These interactions can be useful both for the development of emerging technologies and for identifying these innovations in market that can be applied in companies. Hence, all these dynamic interactions do not point to a hegemonic relationship of one construct over the others, but for the value equality among them.

Originality/value

Although current literature points to the existence of relationships among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies, the dynamism inherent in these interactions as well as their positive effects for companies’ results are not properly discussed. This paper fills such a gap and proposes directions for future research.

Details

Journal of Knowledge Management, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1367-3270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 June 2018

Reza Hafezi, Siavosh Malekifar and Amirnaser Akhavan

Studying previous science and technology (S&T) foresight activities reveals information that helps decision makers to redesign policy-making templates aimed at dealing…

Abstract

Purpose

Studying previous science and technology (S&T) foresight activities reveals information that helps decision makers to redesign policy-making templates aimed at dealing with new millennium challenges. To propose policy recommendations about further S&T foresight programs in Iran, this paper aims to propose a three-phase process to study historical S&T foresight activities at national and sub-national level since 2005 to 2015, to analyze the state of selected activities to discover weaknesses and potential solutions and, finally, to provide strategies and tactics to improve further S&T foresight activities through an expert-based process.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper provides a three-stage methodology, designed to survey Iranian historical foresight practices (study) using scoping framework equipped with additional features, diagnosis and evaluating (analyze) and finally proposing recommendations to organize and implement more efficient further foresight practices (design) to initialize further practices in developing countries such as Iran.

Findings

Although concerns about future and the importance of foresight activities are raised however Iranian foresight community needs to be developed. As noted in Section 5, Iranian foresight facilitators and specialist are biased to limited methodologies and methods; therefore, creating foresight networks and developing communities is strongly recommended.

Research limitations/implications

The main constraint of this research was lack of valid data in the case of some Iranian S&T foresight programs.

Originality/value

Iran as a developing country needs to plan for long-run programs; however, there is no integrated study which reviews and analyzes the previous attempts to dedicate insights about how to reframe existing foresight paradigms. As foresight practices facilitate the paths toward sustainability, analyzing and diagnosis of a series of foresight practices in a devolving country may initialize designing such efforts in less developed world.

Details

foresight, vol. 20 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 December 1999

James P. Gavigan and Fabiana Scapolo

This paper discusses recent trends in public‐administration‐led foresight exercises from the perspective of how the choice of objectives and scope is reflected in the…

Abstract

This paper discusses recent trends in public‐administration‐led foresight exercises from the perspective of how the choice of objectives and scope is reflected in the methods used. In countries where successive projects have been carried out, one can observe how the evolution in methods employed, aims to increase the impact and effectiveness of foresight. Organizing the discussion in terms of objectives departs from previous approaches in the literature which mostly distinguish between different foresight exercises according to the principal methodology used.

Details

Foresight, vol. 1 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 April 2017

Liliana Proskuryakova

The purpose of the study is to discuss and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to discuss and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a large-scale national Foresight exercise – “Science and Technology (S&T) Foresight 2030”.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the author performs an ex post evaluation of the Foresight study. The methods used are the literature review of the research and analytical publications that appeared after 2014, policy analysis of new national energy regulations and technologies, interviews and expert panels, and performing a final SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of the Foresight study.

Findings

As a result of the study, the expediency, efficacy, process efficiency, quality, impact and process improvement of the National S&T Foresight 2030 were assessed. Moreover, the SWOT for the National Foresight and its energy-related outcomes were identified. The National Foresight methodology and its outcomes are critically reviewed, and recommendations for their refinement are made.

Research limitations/implications

Future research on the topic may include subsequent ex ante and ex post evaluations of energy technology foresights that will include revised lists of technologies, given the rapidly changing energy markets, as well as an assessment of the integration of the study results in the energy and S&T policy documents.

Practical implications

The practical implications of the study are linked with turning the prospective R&D areas identified through the Foresight into state priorities for funding energy research. Energy companies may utilize the study results in their development plans and R&D strategies.

Originality/value

This paper offers a valuable insight in the future of energy research and technologies in Russia. It is a comprehensive study that covers all energy aspects from extraction of hydrocarbons to fuel cells and nuclear energy. An ex post assessment of the study is made with implications for the future research.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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