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Article
Publication date: 12 March 2018

Poul Andersen, Elsebeth Holmen and Ann-Charlott Pedersen

Networks and relationships are not stable. On the contrary, they change and are transformed by the actors who take part in them. Change and transformation result from the…

Abstract

Purpose

Networks and relationships are not stable. On the contrary, they change and are transformed by the actors who take part in them. Change and transformation result from the actions and reactions of these actors. However, a key issue is what makes the actors choose some actions and reactions while refraining from others. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors argue that the actors’ expectations to the future of the network are formative for the actions and reactions and, furthermore, that the future expectations are formed by interaction among the actors that take part in the networks.

Findings

The authors depart from the existing foresight literature, but realign its ideas to fit with the core tenets of the IMP approach. Thereby, the purpose is twofold: to explore and conceptualize network foresight phenomena as well as to contribute to the practice of collective foresighting in business networks.

Research limitations/implications

The authors suggest research into formations of expectations in networks with a specific view to the interactive and structural effects of networks. Furthermore, the authors suggest a framework for categorizing network episodes and linking these to the formation of recognized issues and solutions.

Practical implications

The authors provide a framework for analyzing the focus of business networks in terms of solutions and issues, and analytically breaking down the interaction among these.

Originality/value

The authors introduce the concept of business network foresight, both as a distinct concept that enables us to understand change and transformation in networks, but also as a procedure for supporting actors’ strategizing efforts in business networks.

Details

IMP Journal, vol. 12 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2059-1403

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Article
Publication date: 14 October 2009

Yanuar Nugroho and Ozcan Saritas

A particular feature that makes foresight powerful is its capability to learn from past trends to help guide decision‐making for future policy. However, in studying both

Abstract

Purpose

A particular feature that makes foresight powerful is its capability to learn from past trends to help guide decision‐making for future policy. However, in studying both past and future trends, network perspectives are often missing. Since networks are capable of revealing the structure that underpins relationships between stakeholders, key issues and actions in the past, they are powerful to help envisage the future. The purpose of this paper is to propose a methodological framework to incorporate network analysis in foresight.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper develops a generic framework to incorporate network analysis into foresight's five stages. Trends identified by respondents of the Big Picture Survey are used to demonstrate how we operationalize this framework.

Findings

A network perspective can enrich foresight analysis in that it helps reveal structural linkages between trends and thus can better identify emerging future issues, both of which are critical in foresight.

Research limitations/implications

The inclusion of network analysis can shed light on the process of understanding complex data and assist in building a model based on links and relationships. Network analysis can reveal otherwise unobservable structural features of the data and can help boundary setting discussions in foresight.

Practical implications

Network concepts and measures could usefully enrich the interpretation of foresight data for further analysis, or plausible scenarios.

Originality/value

Network analysis offers a new way of looking at the foresight data by disentangling complicated issue webs. As shaping the future becomes more essential because of the complexity of science, technology and society interrelationships, the incorporation of network perspectives in foresight might be one of the ways to propel future studies.

Details

Foresight, vol. 11 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 24 February 2012

Doris Schartinger, Doris Wilhelmer, Dirk Holste and Klaus Kubeczko

Foresight often encompasses participative approaches for decision making. This paper aims to give a first overview of the authors’ research on immediate learning and

Abstract

Purpose

Foresight often encompasses participative approaches for decision making. This paper aims to give a first overview of the authors’ research on immediate learning and networking in the context of foresight. The paper seeks to introduce a practical concept for an accompanying social research of a participatory foresight process for empirically identifying and mapping impacts; and to present empirical results from the study of a specific foresight process.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors apply three approaches to analyze impacts. Accordingly data were gathered in moderated workshops for process analysis; structured telephone interviews for qualitative analysis; and surveys for social network analysis.

Findings

The accompanying social research produced direct insights on experiences and knowledge acquisition of participants in a large, complex foresight process, as well as a measurable increase of personal ties in this process. This research shows that the perception of the wider spectrum of actors in a social system, as well as their rationales and approaches, are one identifiable and crucial achievement of participative foresight processes.

Research limitations/implications

This research focuses on immediate learning impacts, while additional impacts of mid‐ or longer‐term scales were not captured in this study. Accompanying social research (e.g. longitudinal studies) of broader scale would be beneficial to foresight research and process design.

Originality/value

The authors use a specific foresight process to analyze its immediate impacts. They introduce and demonstrate ways forward to use practical concepts for impact description, empirical data acquisition, and how it relates to underlying process design. The results are relevant for foresight project managers, process counselors and accompanying social research.

Details

Foresight, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 14 September 2015

John Michael Schmidt

The purpose of this paper is to propose a low-cost, high return model for implementing a programmatic foresight function that is collaboratively integrated with the…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a low-cost, high return model for implementing a programmatic foresight function that is collaboratively integrated with the organization’s existing policy, planning and intelligence (or policy research) functions. Focusing on government agencies, especially those supporting liberal democratic governments, the purpose of the current paper is to propose a new, practical, low-cost and high-return model for implementing a programmatic strategic foresight function that is collaboratively integrated with the organization’s existing policy, planning and intelligence functions. The paper describes the relevant organizational considerations and options for structural adjustments, and suggests how the proposed model can maximize decision-making effectiveness without disrupting pre-existing structures, operations and products. The paper further discusses the necessity and involvement of a central government foresight agency and a non-hierarchical distributed network linking the foresight units.

Design/methodology/approach

Possible solutions are considered with respect to costs of development and implementation, risk (likelihood, consequence and uncertainty) of the new function’s failure, direct negative or positive effect on the performance of existing functions, the level of cross-organizational involvement in or collaboration with the new function, the level of cross-organization tangible benefits and the level of vertical involvement, especially at the executive level.

Findings

With few exceptions, the implementation of foresight by governments has not been at all methodical, but has followed many different paths, where it has occurred at all. The approach proposed in this paper – establishing a central foresight agency, propagating individual agency-based small programmatic foresight units and virtual teams and creating a non-hierarchical distributed network to link all of them – appears to best meet the success criteria set out in the paper.

Research limitations/implications

Governments, especially liberal democratic ones, and their agencies that have previously shied away from methodically implementing strategic foresight or that have attempted to do so without real success now have an approach that is likely to produce the desired results.

Practical implications

The paper creates a sound framework for governments, especially liberal democratic ones, and their agencies to consider and proceed with the implementation of foresight functions and networks to support them.

Originality/value

The proposed approach is entirely new and generally challenges current practices.

Details

Foresight, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 5 August 2014

Eva Hideg, Erzsébet Nováky and Péter Alács

The aim of this study is to present a concept of interactive foresight process, its theoretical and methodological considerations and a foresight exercise concerning the…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study is to present a concept of interactive foresight process, its theoretical and methodological considerations and a foresight exercise concerning the development of knowledge economy in the Central Hungarian Region.

Design/methodology/approach

A methodology of interactive foresight process for creating regional future concepts is developed, which is based on a specific meaning of integral futures and uses online solutions, too.

Findings

Personal meetings with small and medium enterprise (SME) stakeholders and the works of interactive communications with feedbacks within and among stakeholder groups was organized around the research homepage. The networking created the interconnection and the feedbacks between the stakeholders and the futurist group in the process of shaping regional future ideas. The online networking is running.

Research limitations/implications

The low number of stakeholders can limit the validity and acceptance of futures ideas created by this process.

Practical implications

The developed interactive foresight process can also be applicable at different organizational levels and in different fields for shaping shared future ideas.

Social implications

Application of interactive foresight process can contribute to the development of anticipatory democracy.

Originality/value

A theoretically based interactive foresight process has been developed in which stakeholders can participate not only interactively in the foresight process but they can implement the achievements in their enterprising activity as well. The participants were interested in foresight and cooperative during the whole process because they learned the use of foresight tools through collective solution of practical tasks which were important for them.

Details

Foresight, vol. 16 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 December 1999

James P. Gavigan and Fabiana Scapolo

This paper discusses recent trends in public‐administration‐led foresight exercises from the perspective of how the choice of objectives and scope is reflected in the…

Abstract

This paper discusses recent trends in public‐administration‐led foresight exercises from the perspective of how the choice of objectives and scope is reflected in the methods used. In countries where successive projects have been carried out, one can observe how the evolution in methods employed, aims to increase the impact and effectiveness of foresight. Organizing the discussion in terms of objectives departs from previous approaches in the literature which mostly distinguish between different foresight exercises according to the principal methodology used.

Details

Foresight, vol. 1 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Abstract

Details

Governing for the Future: Designing Democratic Institutions for a Better Tomorrow
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-056-5

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Article
Publication date: 15 October 2008

Effie Amanatidou

The present paper aims to explore the potential of joint foresight exercises in serving joint programming, a concept highlighted in furthering the creation of the European

Abstract

Purpose

The present paper aims to explore the potential of joint foresight exercises in serving joint programming, a concept highlighted in furthering the creation of the European Research Area (ERA).

Design/methodology/approach

The paper starts with setting the context, i.e. the ERA concept, and the importance of joint programming. It then explores the potential of joint foresight in serving joint programming. This is done by analysing the current situation of trans‐national foresight based on the EFMN pool of foresight exercises. Then, possible modes and issues of trans‐national foresight collaboration, as well as perceived benefits and challenges, are also examined in setting a framework for foresight collaboration.

Findings

Joint foresight is not carried out in a fully fledged mode, yet but both interest and potential is high. A framework for foresight collaboration can already be set. EFMN is a valuable source of information and also holds a central, synergistic and complementary role in relation to other sources in defining the way to go forward in joint foresight.

Research limitations/implications

The framework for foresight collaboration can form the basis for strategic discussions across EU member states as well as for further research to clarify and enrich understanding of the governing conditions and variables.

Originality/value

The paper proves that EFMN is both a significant pool of information and holds a complementary role in defining the way forward in supporting joint programming under the ERA. The foresight collaboration framework first attempted here is also worth exploiting further.

Details

Foresight, vol. 10 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 13 November 2017

Ludmila Kováříková, Stanislava Grosová and Dušan Baran

The presented study aims to provide an understanding of the mechanism whereby foresight is accepted by Czech companies. The results of the study can offer insights into…

Abstract

Purpose

The presented study aims to provide an understanding of the mechanism whereby foresight is accepted by Czech companies. The results of the study can offer insights into how to design an optimized corporate foresight tool.

Design/methodology/approach

The well-established framework of unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT2) served as a baseline for research into key determinants of the behavioral intention to use the foresight. The proposed research model included independent variables of UTAUT2 relevant in the context of foresight. The additional variable of personal innovativeness was introduced as a potential predictor. Structural equation modeling (SmartPLS 2.0 software) was used to evaluate the data.

Findings

Performance expectancy regarding foresight was identified as the most substantial predictor of behavioral intention in line with the scientific literature. Surprisingly, the second strongest predictor was the construct of personal innovativeness, and social influence was also proven to affect behavioral intention. The results show that traditional determinants of effort expectancy, facilitating conditions, hedonic motivation and habit did not play a significant role in relation to behavioral intention to adopt the foresight.

Research limitations/implications

The attributes of cost and intention to use could not be included in the research model, as the corporate foresight is not commonly implemented. Second, the tested sample included 103 interviewed organizations but only from Czech Republic.

Originality/value

The study primarily aims to enhance the corporate foresight theory. Secondarily, it extends the UTAUT2 theoretical framework by testing personal innovativeness as a variable explaining behavioral intention. The authors provide statistical evidence of factors impacting the adoption of corporate foresight by companies.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 12 June 2017

Ilya F. Kuzminov, Thomas Thurner and Alexander Chulok

This paper aims to describe and discuss the architecture of Russia’s Technology Foresight System (TFS). This paper introduces the reader to the integration of the TFS into…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to describe and discuss the architecture of Russia’s Technology Foresight System (TFS). This paper introduces the reader to the integration of the TFS into the public administration system and, specifically, into the national strategic planning system.

Design/methodology/approach

To do so, the authors fall back on more than 10 years of experience in performing foresight exercises for Russian policy makers of their institution.

Findings

Thereby, the paper highlights the implications arising from the interaction between sectoral and national components of TFS and on application of the results of foresight studies (implemented within the framework of TFS) for the strategic planning.

Originality/value

Russia has a long history of technological planning and forecasting and engages regularly in extensive foresight activities of both national and sectoral relevance. Also, Russia’s leadership repeatedly stresses the importance of such foresight activities which are outlined by a national law since 2014.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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