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Article
Publication date: 14 September 2015

Tamás Gaspar

The purpose of this paper is to offer a new perspective for strategic foresight on the basis of nurture theory. Strategia Sapiens refers to the fact that strategic work…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to offer a new perspective for strategic foresight on the basis of nurture theory. Strategia Sapiens refers to the fact that strategic work needs to be foresight oriented, and foresight should be directly value driven.

Design/methodology/approach

The following areas of strategic foresight are offered for discussion: the content of a vision, its emergence process and the characteristics of strategic foresight in time and in space.

Findings

The interdisciplinary approach of this research creates a synthesis of and bases its findings on the empirical and theoretical findings of different scientific fields. The primary finding is that nurture theory offers new perspectives to refine and renew strategic foresight. One perspective is the existence of a value- and culture-driven way of life, and the other is the simultaneous self-realisation of individuals. The paper creates the following models on the basis of nurture theory: the system relations of strategic foresight, a complex model of development, the field and system of strategic foresight activities, the logistic life-cycle model and the field of force of social spaces.

Originality/value

This discussion and approach are highly useful for regional and national strategic practitioners, and they contribute to the discussion of the concept and measurement of development. The nurture theory approach strengthens the incorporation of cultural responsibility, as well as an intergenerational view of strategic foresight, which are both fundamental for a renewal of this field.

Details

Foresight, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2015

Konstantin Vishnevskiy, Dirk Meissner and Oleg Karasev

The aim of this paper is to develop a specific strategic foresight methodology and integrate this into roadmapping which is suitable for corporations. To date, reasonable…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to develop a specific strategic foresight methodology and integrate this into roadmapping which is suitable for corporations. To date, reasonable practical experience has been accumulated, but there is a lack of a comprehensive conceptual approach for using strategic foresight and roadmapping to solve management problems.

Design/methodology/approach

This approach integrates corporate strategic foresight and roadmapping in several stages. During the foresight phase, the authors create scenarios of long-term development determined by long-term macro trends and challenges to identify “points of growth” and system of priorities for company growth. A strategic roadmap enables the company to form a “corridor” for specific projects and create a long-term action plan to implement the priorities identified in the first phase. Using a project roadmap makes it possible to ensure the implementation of a specific project, defining a system of goals, the necessary measures, their timing and financing, as well as indicators to assess their effectiveness.

Findings

The core result of the suggested methodology is a set of possible trajectories of innovation development, reflecting the whole technological chain involving R & D – technology – product – market. Each path involves a sequence of organizational actions and key decision-making points that are necessary to be taken to introduce new technological solutions and develop innovation products with new features to the customer/user. These routes support decision-making in such fields as the choice of the product line, establishment of new partnerships with developers of innovation technologies, decisions regarding “insourcing-outsourcing” and the requirements for relevant scientific and technological breakthroughs. It allows corporations to create strategies for commercializing innovation products.

Originality/value

The methodology proposes to integrate the results of foresight studies and in roadmaps and finally in business planning, adopting innovative strategies and management decisions. It contributes to the development of common principles and approaches to the subject, while taking account of company-specific features that can significantly affect the decision-making mechanism. The methodology is applicable to foreign and Russian companies when creating innovative strategies and management decisions based on the results of foresight.

Details

Foresight, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 November 2020

Leandro da Silva Nascimento, Fernanda Maciel Reichert, Raquel Janissek-Muniz and Paulo Antônio Zawislak

This paper aims to discuss the dynamic interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies, resulting in a framework that can help…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to discuss the dynamic interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies, resulting in a framework that can help companies to shape these interactions for achieving positive outcomes.

Design/methodology/approach

This conceptual paper is based on prior literature streams, which were interrelated through an abductive research process. This iterative conceptualization approach led to the formation of testable propositions that advance the understanding on the interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies.

Findings

The framework demonstrates the existence of an actions cycle between strategic foresight and knowledge management through a constructivist perspective, where one can improve the other. These interactions can be useful both for the development of emerging technologies and for identifying these innovations in market that can be applied in companies. Hence, all these dynamic interactions do not point to a hegemonic relationship of one construct over the others, but for the value equality among them.

Originality/value

Although current literature points to the existence of relationships among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies, the dynamism inherent in these interactions as well as their positive effects for companies’ results are not properly discussed. This paper fills such a gap and proposes directions for future research.

Details

Journal of Knowledge Management, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1367-3270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 August 2012

Riccardo Vecchiato

The main purpose of this article is to promote further systematic inquiry into the field of strategic foresight. It carefully aims to re‐examine the notion of

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Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this article is to promote further systematic inquiry into the field of strategic foresight. It carefully aims to re‐examine the notion of environmental uncertainty, the main theoretical approaches advanced by literature on strategy to cope with uncertainty, and foresight activities in corporate organizations.

Design/methodology/approach

This article is theoretical in nature. However, its insights are significantly based on empirical analysis: the author has been involved in the past ten years in in‐depth investigation of foresight practices in several international firms of different industries.

Findings

Several important issues and research questions on strategic foresight have remained largely unresolved from both an academic and managerial perspective. This paper outlines such questions.

Originality/value

The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it links the work on strategic foresight to a wide range of related literature streams, thus revealing new connections and issues to be explored. Second, it develops a research agenda that may inspire further theoretical and empirical work on the nature and effects of strategic foresight efforts.

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2015

Gloria Appiah and David Sarpong

– The purpose of this paper is to propose a conceptual model to unpack the relationship between organisational routines and strategic foresight integration.

1067

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a conceptual model to unpack the relationship between organisational routines and strategic foresight integration.

Design/methodology/approach

Three moderating factors, actors mindfulness, organisational context and organisational ambidexterity, are used in a Routines-Foresight Model to explain how and when organisational routines might influence strategic foresight integration. In addition, the interactions between the ostensive and performative aspects of routines are linked to the concept of routines as generative structures to provide a solid theoretical foundation for the relationship between routines and foresight.

Findings

The success (or failure) of foresight integration is partly a result of the nature of interaction between the ostensive and performative aspects of routines within a focal organisation. As a result of the characteristic embeddedness of routines in organisations however, certain factors further act as moderators to contribute to a holistic explanation of how the ostensive and performative interaction influence foresight integration success.

Research limitations/implications

This paper proposes that routines, whether seen from a change or stability-inducing perspective, could lead to success or failure in foresight integration depending on how the moderating factors (actor’s mindfulness, organisational context and organisational ambidexterity) are managed to accommodate feedback from an organisation’s external environment. In this way, the model proposed challenges present perceptions of routines as leading to successful change behaviours if flexibility is allowed or to failure if they are rigid and unchanging.

Practical implications

Cultivating strategic foresight involves the integration of foresight into organisational decisions and requires organisations to pay attention to understanding the organizing logic of its organizing routines and the contextual factors within which these routines are performed.

Originality/value

The paper draws on the organisational routines literature to develop new insights into the cultivation of organisational foresightfulness.

Details

Foresight, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 June 2003

Joseph Voros

A generic foresight process framework is outlined, based on prior independent work by Mintzberg, Horton and Slaughter. The framework was developed as part of work carried…

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Abstract

A generic foresight process framework is outlined, based on prior independent work by Mintzberg, Horton and Slaughter. The framework was developed as part of work carried out by the author during the introduction of foresight into the formal strategic planning of a public‐sector university in Australia. The framework recognises several distinct phases, leading from the initial gathering of information, through to the production of outputs intended as input into the more familiar activities of strategy development and strategic planning. The framework is also useful as a diagnostic tool for examining how foresight work and strategy are undertaken, as well as a design aid for customised foresight projects and processes. Some observations and reflections are made on lessons learned from a two‐and‐a‐half year engagement as an organisationally‐based foresight practitioner.

Details

Foresight, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 November 2017

Mahdi Joneidi Jafari and Seyed Akbar NiliPourTabataba’i

This paper aims to examine the capability of corporate foresight in the organizations and its impacts on innovation, quality of managers’ strategic decision-making and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the capability of corporate foresight in the organizations and its impacts on innovation, quality of managers’ strategic decision-making and organizational performance in the banking industry of Iran.

Design/methodology/approach

In the first part, upon introducing corporate foresight from the two process and content perspectives, influential elements in this construct are discussed. Then, corporate foresight’s relationship with innovation and strategic decision-making is examined and its effect on organizational performance is analyzed within a structural model. Using interview and questionnaire, the data research were collected from the banking industry of Iran including 30 banks (state-commercial banks, specialist-state banks, interest-free loan funds and private banks). Through descriptive, inferential statistical analyses and structural equation modeling using SPSS and Smart PLS software, reliability of the measurement model with 576 samples was confirmed.

Findings

The results show that the corporate foresight playing three roles of initiator, strategist, and opponent affects the innovation. Moreover, the research results suggest that using the data from the foresight and identifying the weak signals, we can reduce the uncertainty and issue prior warnings in order to enhance the quality of manager’s strategic decision making and promote the organizational performance.

Originality/value

This paper is one of the articles from the sources of the doctoral thesis of Futures Studies as “The relationship between knowledge absorption capacity, corporate foresight and its effect on the performance of the banking industry in Iran”.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Governing for the Future: Designing Democratic Institutions for a Better Tomorrow
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-056-5

Article
Publication date: 6 May 2021

Lívia Abreu Torres and Marcos Antonio Gomes Pena Jr

No matter how much human beings strive to make strictly rational choices, they are incapable of doing so because human knowledge is limited and suffers the influence of…

Abstract

Purpose

No matter how much human beings strive to make strictly rational choices, they are incapable of doing so because human knowledge is limited and suffers the influence of psychological aspects. This paper aims to demonstrate how the use of foresight methods has contributed to minimize problems inherent to human rationality through a qualitative descriptive study of the case of the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation – Embrapa.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper collected primary and secondary data through document analysis and interviews with managers of the Embrapa’s strategic intelligence system (SIS), Agropensa (a recognized success case of strategic intelligence (SI)/futures studies in Brazilian public administration).

Findings

The results show that it was possible to strengthen corporate behavior in the long term, minimize biases inherent to the decision-making process and bring relevant information into the management of the organization. Foresight methods and tools have made it possible to mitigate problems arising from bounded rationality (BR) in the Embrapa’s decision-making processes. The change in company’s culture potentiated long-term views and access to future-bearing information. Embrapa’s SIS contributes to mitigate difficulties inherent to human nature by bringing uncertainty into managerial discussions.

Originality/value

Taking in consideration all the advances in the future studies/SI approach, this paper realizes that this particular practical case can contribute to scientific community deepening the understanding of how a structure dedicated to run future studies/SI can diminish BR impacts on the company’s decision-making process.

Details

foresight, vol. 23 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 June 2020

Jean Paul Pinto and Javier Medina

This paper aims to propose a new strategic foresight process that combines aspects from science fiction, speculative design and tools linked to organizational processes…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose a new strategic foresight process that combines aspects from science fiction, speculative design and tools linked to organizational processes, first, to generate potential new services and products and, second, to reduce problems associated with the construction of low-impact and irrelevant scenarios for decision-making processes. As a new proposal, it invites reflection and debate.

Design/methodology/approach

After reviewing the literature on the key concepts that represent the essence of strategic foresight, as well as the traditional processes to reflect on the future, a proposal for a new hybrid, integrative foresight process that allows moving from imagination to the materialization of scenarios will be presented.

Findings

The new hybrid process makes evident the need to articulate strategic foresight with other areas of knowledge and management tools to build scenarios with greater impact on decision-making and greater added value from strategic foresight to organizational processes.

Originality/value

The proposed integrative model articulates tools that already exist, but the originality of the proposal lies in that there are no models that integrate science fiction, speculative design, and other organizational tools in a single process.

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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