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Article
Publication date: 15 October 2008

Effie Amanatidou

The present paper aims to explore the potential of joint foresight exercises in serving joint programming, a concept highlighted in furthering the creation of the European

Abstract

Purpose

The present paper aims to explore the potential of joint foresight exercises in serving joint programming, a concept highlighted in furthering the creation of the European Research Area (ERA).

Design/methodology/approach

The paper starts with setting the context, i.e. the ERA concept, and the importance of joint programming. It then explores the potential of joint foresight in serving joint programming. This is done by analysing the current situation of trans‐national foresight based on the EFMN pool of foresight exercises. Then, possible modes and issues of trans‐national foresight collaboration, as well as perceived benefits and challenges, are also examined in setting a framework for foresight collaboration.

Findings

Joint foresight is not carried out in a fully fledged mode, yet but both interest and potential is high. A framework for foresight collaboration can already be set. EFMN is a valuable source of information and also holds a central, synergistic and complementary role in relation to other sources in defining the way to go forward in joint foresight.

Research limitations/implications

The framework for foresight collaboration can form the basis for strategic discussions across EU member states as well as for further research to clarify and enrich understanding of the governing conditions and variables.

Originality/value

The paper proves that EFMN is both a significant pool of information and holds a complementary role in defining the way forward in supporting joint programming under the ERA. The foresight collaboration framework first attempted here is also worth exploiting further.

Details

Foresight, vol. 10 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 22 June 2018

Reza Hafezi, Siavosh Malekifar and Amirnaser Akhavan

Studying previous science and technology (S&T) foresight activities reveals information that helps decision makers to redesign policy-making templates aimed at dealing…

Abstract

Purpose

Studying previous science and technology (S&T) foresight activities reveals information that helps decision makers to redesign policy-making templates aimed at dealing with new millennium challenges. To propose policy recommendations about further S&T foresight programs in Iran, this paper aims to propose a three-phase process to study historical S&T foresight activities at national and sub-national level since 2005 to 2015, to analyze the state of selected activities to discover weaknesses and potential solutions and, finally, to provide strategies and tactics to improve further S&T foresight activities through an expert-based process.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper provides a three-stage methodology, designed to survey Iranian historical foresight practices (study) using scoping framework equipped with additional features, diagnosis and evaluating (analyze) and finally proposing recommendations to organize and implement more efficient further foresight practices (design) to initialize further practices in developing countries such as Iran.

Findings

Although concerns about future and the importance of foresight activities are raised however Iranian foresight community needs to be developed. As noted in Section 5, Iranian foresight facilitators and specialist are biased to limited methodologies and methods; therefore, creating foresight networks and developing communities is strongly recommended.

Research limitations/implications

The main constraint of this research was lack of valid data in the case of some Iranian S&T foresight programs.

Originality/value

Iran as a developing country needs to plan for long-run programs; however, there is no integrated study which reviews and analyzes the previous attempts to dedicate insights about how to reframe existing foresight paradigms. As foresight practices facilitate the paths toward sustainability, analyzing and diagnosis of a series of foresight practices in a devolving country may initialize designing such efforts in less developed world.

Details

foresight, vol. 20 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 December 1999

James P. Gavigan and Fabiana Scapolo

This paper discusses recent trends in public‐administration‐led foresight exercises from the perspective of how the choice of objectives and scope is reflected in the…

Abstract

This paper discusses recent trends in public‐administration‐led foresight exercises from the perspective of how the choice of objectives and scope is reflected in the methods used. In countries where successive projects have been carried out, one can observe how the evolution in methods employed, aims to increase the impact and effectiveness of foresight. Organizing the discussion in terms of objectives departs from previous approaches in the literature which mostly distinguish between different foresight exercises according to the principal methodology used.

Details

Foresight, vol. 1 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 10 April 2017

Liliana Proskuryakova

The purpose of the study is to discuss and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to discuss and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a large-scale national Foresight exercise – “Science and Technology (S&T) Foresight 2030”.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the author performs an ex post evaluation of the Foresight study. The methods used are the literature review of the research and analytical publications that appeared after 2014, policy analysis of new national energy regulations and technologies, interviews and expert panels, and performing a final SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of the Foresight study.

Findings

As a result of the study, the expediency, efficacy, process efficiency, quality, impact and process improvement of the National S&T Foresight 2030 were assessed. Moreover, the SWOT for the National Foresight and its energy-related outcomes were identified. The National Foresight methodology and its outcomes are critically reviewed, and recommendations for their refinement are made.

Research limitations/implications

Future research on the topic may include subsequent ex ante and ex post evaluations of energy technology foresights that will include revised lists of technologies, given the rapidly changing energy markets, as well as an assessment of the integration of the study results in the energy and S&T policy documents.

Practical implications

The practical implications of the study are linked with turning the prospective R&D areas identified through the Foresight into state priorities for funding energy research. Energy companies may utilize the study results in their development plans and R&D strategies.

Originality/value

This paper offers a valuable insight in the future of energy research and technologies in Russia. It is a comprehensive study that covers all energy aspects from extraction of hydrocarbons to fuel cells and nuclear energy. An ex post assessment of the study is made with implications for the future research.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 20 February 2009

Tugrul Daim, Nuri Basoglu, Orhan Dursun, Ozcan Saritas and Pisek Gerdsri

The purpose of this paper is to review and analyse Vision 2023: the Turkish National Technology Foresight project. The paper aims to review the process of conducting the

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to review and analyse Vision 2023: the Turkish National Technology Foresight project. The paper aims to review the process of conducting the project, how it was implemented afterwards and how it compares to other national technology foresight projects

Design/methodology/approach

Through a literature search, a process framework was conducted. The analysis was then conducted in four phases. First a process review, second a comparative review, third content review and finally a post project review. Expert interviews and site visits to Turkish State Planning Organization and TUBITAK (Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey) helped the authors to collect the data on Vision 2023 including how it was established, which areas were involved and what the recommendations were. Finally an expert panel was organized as part of a recent Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology. This included experts involved in the project as well as leading researchers who have been analyzing this project. This panel helped to validate the results.

Findings

Processes used in the Turkish project were similar to the other national projects, however lack of political ownership and change in leadership had been blocking the recommendations coming out of this project from being implemented. A second effort is required to modify the results of the first one and to establish political ownership and leadership. Several other national projects had multiple rounds before solid actions were taken. Industry needs to be a part of the effort as the panelists indicated that several key corporations were missing in the first project.

Practical implications

The project provides comparative details on running national technology foresight projects. This should be useful for those responsible for planning similar projects.

Original/value

The paper reviews the project implementation process and what happened after the implementation providing feedback on what should have been done or should be done in similar foresight projects.

Details

Foresight, vol. 11 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 12 June 2017

Ilya F. Kuzminov, Thomas Thurner and Alexander Chulok

This paper aims to describe and discuss the architecture of Russia’s Technology Foresight System (TFS). This paper introduces the reader to the integration of the TFS into…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to describe and discuss the architecture of Russia’s Technology Foresight System (TFS). This paper introduces the reader to the integration of the TFS into the public administration system and, specifically, into the national strategic planning system.

Design/methodology/approach

To do so, the authors fall back on more than 10 years of experience in performing foresight exercises for Russian policy makers of their institution.

Findings

Thereby, the paper highlights the implications arising from the interaction between sectoral and national components of TFS and on application of the results of foresight studies (implemented within the framework of TFS) for the strategic planning.

Originality/value

Russia has a long history of technological planning and forecasting and engages regularly in extensive foresight activities of both national and sectoral relevance. Also, Russia’s leadership repeatedly stresses the importance of such foresight activities which are outlined by a national law since 2014.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 11 September 2017

Dirk Meissner and Pavel Rudnik

Foresight is frequently used to establish science and technology investment priorities and develop corresponding technology and innovation support programmes. In the light…

Abstract

Purpose

Foresight is frequently used to establish science and technology investment priorities and develop corresponding technology and innovation support programmes. In the light of technology and innovation policy, many individual Foresight studies are undertaken which are separate and little linked with the broader policy scope and ambition. This paper aims to look at an approach towards a consistent Foresight system which is linked closely to science, technology and innovation policy.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper provides an in-depth case study of the Russian Foresight system. The case study is based on desk research and extensive experience of the authors with the system.

Findings

Russia has developed a systematic approach towards organising Foresight which involves and serves multiple stakeholders, including government, ministries, federal and regional agencies, higher education institutions, public research institutes, state-owned companies and private businesses and a large range of associations. Under the auspicious of a dedicated commission, targeted Foresight is undertaken with clearly defined scope for each. The paper finds that the Russian system is unique in its organisational structure and in the integration of Foresight with science, technology and innovation policy measures.

Originality/value

The paper describes all facets of the Russian Foresight system which has not been done before. It also outlines the practical steps to further develop and leverage the system.

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Article
Publication date: 11 September 2017

Leonid Gokhberg, Alexander Sokolov and Alexander Chulok

The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the recent Russian Science and Technology Foresight – a full-fledged study targeted at the identification of the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the recent Russian Science and Technology Foresight – a full-fledged study targeted at the identification of the most promising areas of science and technology (S&T) development in Russia towards 2030 to ensure the realisation of the nation’s competitive advantages. It was organised as a complex project involving dozens of organizations performing particular tasks under the overall coordination by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) and more than 2,000 experts in various S&T fields.

Design/methodology/approach

Its methodology embraced a set of qualitative and quantitative methods and combined technology push and market pool approaches. For seven S&T areas (information and communication technologies, biotechnologies, medicine and health, new materials and nanotechnologies, rational use of nature, transportation and space systems, energy efficiency and energy saving), the following types of results have been obtained: global trends, national challenges and windows of opportunities; new markets and niches; innovation products and services; prospective technologies and R&D fields (50 thematic groups, over 1,000 items for all areas); assessment of the country’s positions vis-à-vis global leaders; recommendations for S&T and innovation policies.

Findings

The paper covers prospective drivers of economic growth and relevant implications for anticipatory evidence-based policy; discussions of national challenges and building a common vision of the future among key stakeholders; the role of Foresight in particular as a communication platform that helps integrating stakeholder interests; strengthening existing and developing new capacities to increase national competitiveness; and to move up along existing and emerging global value chains.

Originality/value

The Russian S&T Foresight, being deeply integrated in the national policy, can be considered as an exemplar tool for “wiring up” the national innovation system (NIS) of an emerging economy with its specific features and problems facing large-scale challenges.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 31 August 2010

Hsin‐Ning Su, Pei‐Chun Lee and Benjamin J.C. Yuan

The purpose of this paper is to create a vision and obtain a consensus on Taiwan's nanotechnology industry in three dimensions (the 2007 situation, the R&D maturation

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to create a vision and obtain a consensus on Taiwan's nanotechnology industry in three dimensions (the 2007 situation, the R&D maturation time, and the 2020 scenario). It then seeks to foster a set of development strategies for Taiwan in 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

A Delphi‐based foresight study together with an expert discussion meeting has been conducted to obtain a consensus for Taiwan nanotechnology in 2020.

Findings

The paper provides the results of the first Delphi‐based survey on Taiwan nanotechnology development. The Nano Bio Medicine domain has greater maturity; the maturation time of most techniques will be 2010‐2015; Nanocomposite Material Technique, Nano Optoelectronic and Optical Communication, and Nano Storage show relatively high competitiveness. Self‐R&D and Technology introduced from overseas are the major development methods in 2020.

Practical implications

The paper is of interest to foresight practitioners and policy makers at the industrial and government levels in Taiwan.

Originality/value

The paper is the first publication to identify Taiwan's 2020 nanotechnology development by Delphi‐based foresight investigation.

Details

Foresight, vol. 12 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 15 December 2020

Reza Hafezi, Ahmad Borumand Kakhki, Maziar Attari, Zohreh Besharati Rad and Ashraf Sadat Pasandideh

Many devices needed electrical power to work, thus, major energy carriers such as oil and gas were used to generate electrical power via converter mechanisms and special…

Abstract

Purpose

Many devices needed electrical power to work, thus, major energy carriers such as oil and gas were used to generate electrical power via converter mechanisms and special technologies. The microturbine is a developed technology that is remarkable for its relatively high performance and ability to use several types of fuels. Microturbines are economically feasible because of the production of combined heat and power and small-scale applicability. This study aims to investigate microturbine technology development to support modern energy access in a developing country (i.e. Iran).

Design/methodology/approach

This paper presents a technology foresight methodology to create plausible futures of microturbine development in Iran when the country faces different driving forces and uncertainties. On other hand, the paper deals with a theoretical question: how to select appropriate foresight methodology? A procedure is proposed, which equipped the research team to select appropriate method combinations based on Popper’s diamond. Finally, the selected methodology includes defining focal issues environmental scanning and patent analysis aimed at developing five plausible scenarios for microturbine development future in Iran and creating shared visions among policymakers.

Findings

This paper proposed a series of scenarios on the path to developing microturbine technology. The scenario development logic in a participatory way contains a common four-quarter technique that attempts to depict scenarios based on two critical uncertainties inclusive energy price and technology obsolescence, which will shape the future. Also, a scenario is presented to describe a wild card that can disturb the desired futures. Such materials help decision-makers to policies under plausible conditions that guarantee a robust policy basket.

Originality/value

The originality of this paper can be studied based on two aspects, first, the methodology that provides a systematic method selections procedure in an emerging complex technology development program. Second, from the practical aspect, this paper is one of the very first attempts to manage the microturbine technology development program. Then, results are used to feed the policy-making process in Iran.

Details

foresight, vol. 23 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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